Football Outsiders: AFC Over/Unders

[patmoran2006]

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2007/08/22/ramblings/scramble/5381/

Buffalo Bills (+/- 6 Wins)
PFP 2007 Mean Projection: 6.2 Wins

You see how similar these projection lines are and, for a second, you really want to go behind the curtain and see what Vegas has cooked up underneath it all. I wonder who their system is named after. HANRATTY? RHOME? Oh well. The biggest thing for the Bills, regardless of their team’s skill level, is the fact that they’ll be facing what we project as the most difficult schedule in football. For reference, the team with that honor in 2005 was the Chargers, who went 9-7 sandwiched between 12- and 14-win seasons with the same roster. In 2006 it was the Broncos, who went from 13-3 to 9-7.

This puts a significant damper on any enthusiasm I may have had for the Bills.

And, the thing is, there’s not really a whole lot to like here. You’d like to trust Marv Levy as a personnel evaluator, and Donte Whitmer appears to be a potential star at safety, but John McCargo missed almost the whole season, the Takeo Spikes trade ended up being pretty much for nothing, and they have to replace the core of their defense in Spikes, London Fletcher-Baker, and Nate Clements. Fortunately, they replaced one of the NFL’s best corners … with one of its worst, in Jason Webster. He’ll keep the position warm for Ashton Youboty, mainly because of the fires that will be raging on Webster’s side of the field. Bringing in talented new offensive linemen helps, but our research in this year’s annual shows that offensive lines that stick together get better. It’s going to be a long year in Buffalo. Under

[patmoran2006]

Re: Football Outsiders: AFC Over/Unders

I still can't get over the fact that Jason Webster and Coy Wire are STARTERS on this defense.

[YardRat]

Re: Football Outsiders: AFC Over/Unders

If you want to make an omelet, you've got to break a few eggs.

[TacklingDummy]

Re: Football Outsiders: AFC Over/Unders

Another Media Moron.

[Mitchy moo]

Re: Football Outsiders: AFC Over/Unders

Does that take into consideration the potential for injury to important players? How about others variables like extreme weather during the game? Swirling winds / lack of opposing QB experience in bad conditions?

One of the reason we did well in Buffalo during the playoffs and made the SB 4 years in a row is the weather that time of year used to be very severe. I know we we're a very talented team but I am old enough to have spent time in the late 80's / early 90's and can assure you that the noise and weather play a huge factor. Toss is a few warmer weather teams we played, like Miami and bingo chalk up a extra win or two.

I personally put a ton on the over and think you are all wet, flawed logic. We win this week and start our march towards the post-season, mark my words.

[Mitchy moo]

Re: Football Outsiders: AFC Over/Unders

Does that take into consideration the potential for injury to important players? How about others variables like extreme weather during the game? Swirling winds / lack of opposing QB experience in bad conditions?

One of the reason we did well in Buffalo during the playoffs and made the SB 4 years in a row is the weather that time of year used to be very severe. I know we we're a very talented team but I am old enough to have spent time in the late 80's / early 90's and can assure you that the noise and weather play a huge factor. Toss is a few warmer weather teams we played, like Miami and bingo chalk up a extra win or two.

I personally put a ton on the over and think you are all wet, flawed logic. We win this week and start our march towards the post-season, mark my words.

I didn't realize the injuries would happen to us but read the last sentence, we're still marching.

[cocamide]

Re: Football Outsiders: AFC Over/Unders

It's nice to see these predictions brought up. I wish ESPN and what not would go back and look at all of the predictions they've made over the season. The reason they don't do that is because people would better realize how stupid the so called 'experts' are. I like when John Stewart calls out the politicians and other news networks on their BS.

[eyedog]

Re: Football Outsiders: AFC Over/Unders

Actually the media/experts who are always putting down the Bills helps for betting purposes. They are always undervalued because of how they are perceived nationally. But I know none of them know this team better than I do so you pick your spots and make some $$$$$.

[G. Host]

Re: Football Outsiders: AFC Over/Unders

Yep. I have a pool at work and nobody was interested in Bills so Bills were almost bottom handicapped.