LifetimeBillsFan
09-07-2007, 02:35 AM
Because many Zoners don't take the time to read the articles that are linked on the BZ Front Page and I haven't seen any mention of it in any other threads, I would like to strongly recommend that every Zoner (especially Wys, OpIv, and others) take the time to read Mark Gaughan's excellent article breaking down various NFL statistics and how certain benchmarks in those statistical categories relate to qualifying for the playoffs before it is no longer easily accessible. It is a superb article well worth the time it takes to read it:
URL: http://www.buffalonews.com/sports/billsnfl/story/156414.html?imw=Y
"....Run and stop the run
This is one of the best indicators of strength in the trenches. However, these statistics alone are far from a playoff guarantee. Teams that rank in the top 12 in run defense only make the playoffs 50 percent of the time. Teams in the top 12 in rushing get in 56 percent of the time. Ranking in the top 12 in both rushing and run defense isn't quite as good as one would expect, either. Those teams get in 65 percent of the time.
A good baseline for the defense is holding foes to 115 rushing yards a game. If your team can't do that, it better have a great offense piling up points. A good baseline on offense is rushing for 110 yards a game. Eighty-two percent of playoff teams hit that mark....
Conclusion: Running and stopping the run is a huge key to making the playoffs, with one caveat -- as long as a team gets adequate quarterbacking. Take the Bills in 2004. They ranked seventh in run defense and 13th in rushing. They were plus-10 in turnover ratio. But they had a team passer rating that was only 21st in the league, and they had the sixth fewest passing yards in the league. Not quite good enough....
Turnovers
The big flaw in the passer rating system is it doesn't give a quarterback any credit for winning the game. Still, it's tough to make the playoffs if the quarterback doesn't have an efficiency rating of 80 or better. Only 22 percent of the playoff teams this decade had a QB with a passer rating lower than 80. Teams that had a passer rating of 85 or better made the playoffs 74 percent of the time, regardless of any other factors.....
Red zone
Greatness in this category doesn't assure anything. Of the teams that ranked among the top five in red-zone defense this decade, 17 made the playoffs and 18 didn't.
Nevertheless, five of the last seven Super Bowl winners ranked among the top five in red-zone defense. And holding foes to field goals instead of touchdowns can overcome numerous shortcomings.
New England won the Super Bowl in 2001 with a defense that ranked 24th in yards allowed and 19th against the run. But the Pats were third in red-zone defense and were able to contain a heavily favored St. Louis team to win the title....
Explosive plays
Explosive plays generally are defined as pass plays of 20 yards or more and run plays of 10 yards or more.
It's hard for an offense to mount 12-play drives in the NFL without something going wrong - such as a sack, a penalty or a turnover.
Big pass plays are a function of having talented playmakers, running the ball reasonably well and being able to convert third downs. String several first downs several series in a row, and the defense is going to be forced to creep forward and create an opening for a big play.
Last season, eight of the top 11 teams with the most pass plays of 25 yards or more (the number kept by STATS Inc.) made the playoffs. Philadelphia was No. 1 with 43. Buffalo had just 19 pass plays of 25-plus yards, tied for fifth fewest....
Points
Obviously, points scored and allowed are the result of good quarterbacking, good rushing and run defense and overall efficiency.
Three touchdowns is the benchmark. It's hard to make the playoffs without scoring 21 ppg or better or holding the opponent to 21 ppg. Eighty percent of playoff teams hit both those marks. If an offense can get up to 24 ppg, then the chances of making the playoffs are 78 percent. Ironically, the 2004 Bills scored 24.7 ppg but still missed the playoffs....
....Fewell's goal of holding teams to 17 ppg is a true indicator of success. Teams that did it this decade have made the playoffs 30 of 36 times (83 percent). That's not easy. Only about five teams a year are that good...."
http://www.buffalonews.com/sports/billsnfl/story/156414.html?imw=Y
There's a lot more to the article than just this, but here's my reaction to it:
"Run and stop the run" has almost become a mantra for some Zoners, but,as I've tried to point out on many occasions, there's more to winning and being a playoff team than just that. As Mark Weiler correctly pointed out a couple of years ago in one of his articles (yes, Wys, I not only read it, but I actually agreed with you and have quoted and credited you) a couple of years ago, typically criticizing the then-highly-rated Bills defense, a high ranking in terms of yards yielded is not nearly as important as having a high ranking in terms of points allowed. Being able to run and stop the run are, indeed, both important aspects of being a winning team, but, ultimately, the games are decided by how many points each team has put up on the board, not how many yards they have yielded or which team has gained the most yards on the ground.
And, there are a number of things that factor into scoring and preventing an opponent from scoring in addition to being able to run the ball and stop the run. QB efficiency and offensive efficiency, 3 and outs on both sides of the ball, red zone effectiveness on both offense and defense, turnovers, penalties, and field position all contribute to how well a team will do in terms of points scored and points allowed.
As a single statistic, turnover margin, has been shown to be the greatest predictor of which team will win a given game, even though it is not a perfect predictor or, as Gaughan points out, necessarily a perfect predictor of whether a team will make the playoffs or not (the fact that Gaughan did not cite the percentage of teams ranked in the top 10 in turnover margin making the playoffs was a glaring omission in his article--although it is possible for a team to pad its ranking in turnover margin by getting a lot of turnovers against the weaker teams on its schedule and limiting its own turnovers overall, I believe that one would find that a high ranking in turnover margin would hold up as a good, though not perfect, predictor of which teams make the playoffs versus which teams do not).
There are a lot of factors that go into winning and losing, scoring points and allowing points, in the NFL and I would hope that, in assessing the Bills and the progress of their rebuilding this season, Bills fans will try to look at the overall picture and not simply obsess over their performance in one or two statistical categories. IMHO, this article offers a group of good statistics to look at as a guage of where the Bills are at and how they are progressing/regressing as the season goes on.
Additionally, I would also recommend taking a look at Jerry Sullivan's article, which also appeared in the Buffalo News entitled "Make No Mistake, The Bills Are Rebuilding". http://www.buffalonews.com/sports/billsnfl/story/156414.html?imw=Y
While I don't agree with everything that Sullivan says, it is a sober, thought-provoking assessment of where the Bills are at and what they appear to be trying to do.
If you don't read the Sullivan article, though, IMHO you really should make sure to read Gaughan's.
URL: http://www.buffalonews.com/sports/billsnfl/story/156414.html?imw=Y
"....Run and stop the run
This is one of the best indicators of strength in the trenches. However, these statistics alone are far from a playoff guarantee. Teams that rank in the top 12 in run defense only make the playoffs 50 percent of the time. Teams in the top 12 in rushing get in 56 percent of the time. Ranking in the top 12 in both rushing and run defense isn't quite as good as one would expect, either. Those teams get in 65 percent of the time.
A good baseline for the defense is holding foes to 115 rushing yards a game. If your team can't do that, it better have a great offense piling up points. A good baseline on offense is rushing for 110 yards a game. Eighty-two percent of playoff teams hit that mark....
Conclusion: Running and stopping the run is a huge key to making the playoffs, with one caveat -- as long as a team gets adequate quarterbacking. Take the Bills in 2004. They ranked seventh in run defense and 13th in rushing. They were plus-10 in turnover ratio. But they had a team passer rating that was only 21st in the league, and they had the sixth fewest passing yards in the league. Not quite good enough....
Turnovers
The big flaw in the passer rating system is it doesn't give a quarterback any credit for winning the game. Still, it's tough to make the playoffs if the quarterback doesn't have an efficiency rating of 80 or better. Only 22 percent of the playoff teams this decade had a QB with a passer rating lower than 80. Teams that had a passer rating of 85 or better made the playoffs 74 percent of the time, regardless of any other factors.....
Red zone
Greatness in this category doesn't assure anything. Of the teams that ranked among the top five in red-zone defense this decade, 17 made the playoffs and 18 didn't.
Nevertheless, five of the last seven Super Bowl winners ranked among the top five in red-zone defense. And holding foes to field goals instead of touchdowns can overcome numerous shortcomings.
New England won the Super Bowl in 2001 with a defense that ranked 24th in yards allowed and 19th against the run. But the Pats were third in red-zone defense and were able to contain a heavily favored St. Louis team to win the title....
Explosive plays
Explosive plays generally are defined as pass plays of 20 yards or more and run plays of 10 yards or more.
It's hard for an offense to mount 12-play drives in the NFL without something going wrong - such as a sack, a penalty or a turnover.
Big pass plays are a function of having talented playmakers, running the ball reasonably well and being able to convert third downs. String several first downs several series in a row, and the defense is going to be forced to creep forward and create an opening for a big play.
Last season, eight of the top 11 teams with the most pass plays of 25 yards or more (the number kept by STATS Inc.) made the playoffs. Philadelphia was No. 1 with 43. Buffalo had just 19 pass plays of 25-plus yards, tied for fifth fewest....
Points
Obviously, points scored and allowed are the result of good quarterbacking, good rushing and run defense and overall efficiency.
Three touchdowns is the benchmark. It's hard to make the playoffs without scoring 21 ppg or better or holding the opponent to 21 ppg. Eighty percent of playoff teams hit both those marks. If an offense can get up to 24 ppg, then the chances of making the playoffs are 78 percent. Ironically, the 2004 Bills scored 24.7 ppg but still missed the playoffs....
....Fewell's goal of holding teams to 17 ppg is a true indicator of success. Teams that did it this decade have made the playoffs 30 of 36 times (83 percent). That's not easy. Only about five teams a year are that good...."
http://www.buffalonews.com/sports/billsnfl/story/156414.html?imw=Y
There's a lot more to the article than just this, but here's my reaction to it:
"Run and stop the run" has almost become a mantra for some Zoners, but,as I've tried to point out on many occasions, there's more to winning and being a playoff team than just that. As Mark Weiler correctly pointed out a couple of years ago in one of his articles (yes, Wys, I not only read it, but I actually agreed with you and have quoted and credited you) a couple of years ago, typically criticizing the then-highly-rated Bills defense, a high ranking in terms of yards yielded is not nearly as important as having a high ranking in terms of points allowed. Being able to run and stop the run are, indeed, both important aspects of being a winning team, but, ultimately, the games are decided by how many points each team has put up on the board, not how many yards they have yielded or which team has gained the most yards on the ground.
And, there are a number of things that factor into scoring and preventing an opponent from scoring in addition to being able to run the ball and stop the run. QB efficiency and offensive efficiency, 3 and outs on both sides of the ball, red zone effectiveness on both offense and defense, turnovers, penalties, and field position all contribute to how well a team will do in terms of points scored and points allowed.
As a single statistic, turnover margin, has been shown to be the greatest predictor of which team will win a given game, even though it is not a perfect predictor or, as Gaughan points out, necessarily a perfect predictor of whether a team will make the playoffs or not (the fact that Gaughan did not cite the percentage of teams ranked in the top 10 in turnover margin making the playoffs was a glaring omission in his article--although it is possible for a team to pad its ranking in turnover margin by getting a lot of turnovers against the weaker teams on its schedule and limiting its own turnovers overall, I believe that one would find that a high ranking in turnover margin would hold up as a good, though not perfect, predictor of which teams make the playoffs versus which teams do not).
There are a lot of factors that go into winning and losing, scoring points and allowing points, in the NFL and I would hope that, in assessing the Bills and the progress of their rebuilding this season, Bills fans will try to look at the overall picture and not simply obsess over their performance in one or two statistical categories. IMHO, this article offers a group of good statistics to look at as a guage of where the Bills are at and how they are progressing/regressing as the season goes on.
Additionally, I would also recommend taking a look at Jerry Sullivan's article, which also appeared in the Buffalo News entitled "Make No Mistake, The Bills Are Rebuilding". http://www.buffalonews.com/sports/billsnfl/story/156414.html?imw=Y
While I don't agree with everything that Sullivan says, it is a sober, thought-provoking assessment of where the Bills are at and what they appear to be trying to do.
If you don't read the Sullivan article, though, IMHO you really should make sure to read Gaughan's.