Smart, or logical?

[evol4276]

we have plenty of people on here whom sorry to say look like they'd be the smarter of the people when they were in school from personal pics, whether you wanna take that as a bad thing or a good thing (this isnt the idea of the thread though just stating). that must me completely incorrect though, because if you were as smart as some of you try n make others seem, you surely would understand math. and if you understood math, surely you would know and possibly understand a thing known as probability.

What I mean by probability for those who don't know is if I were to say for example (without doing any actual math) that JP, let alone any other qb this upcomming week against the pats wuld have say a 1:100 shot for having a lights out game against probably the best team I've seen in a long time, or 1:let's say 50 for having a great game, whether we win or lose. now some teams are obviously going to change the probability for how our QB play would be, and since the first 3 games of this season are against great defenses, our probable chance of having an excellent QB play (or really offensive play at all) is a lot slimmer of a chance than say if we played the Texans. (edit for you guys since i kinda was unclear on what i was doing here. what im trying to say is with these past games and the next one is that we have a lot less of a chance to throw for a lot of yards than to throw for less yards but with good percentage. thats really all i meant and thats why i didn't come with real numbers. it really was a "for instance" dealie if u get what i mean. sry for the confusion. either way these are all really good pass-defenses)

Not every team is the same. Teams do have a such thing as a good defense and it is hard enough in this league to win a game, let alone put up huge numbers week in week out. JP has shown he can get the ball completed consistantly. And even the probablility of a QB (again unless you are Manning) playing at his very best at the very beginning of a season is going to be a lot lower of a possibilty than say 8 games into the season. Especially if most of the preseason's snaps were given to the backup QB's to see who the backup would be. Look at Brees. He was the best if not one of the best last year. He has started out like the Drew Brees from 3-4 years ago before the emergence of Gates and his fulltime-progression. He has been really slow to catch on right away. You can dispute this all you want and guess what? you would be wrong every time!

in the first 2 games, he has averaged about 63.3% completion rating. out of the top 15 qbs in passing yards last year (jp 13th) those qbs for the year averaged a 53.49% completion rating. at the moment JP despite "playing as terrible as the worst qb in the league) is completing #1 better than the average by 10%, and #2 completing better than his yearly average last year (62.5 %). it's 2 games but with the complaining and loss of faith in him, one would think he'd average like around a 54% (mcnabb, bulger, romo). look how 2 of the 3 of those teams are also 0-2. and thats also with teams who have far better teams than ours. yards don't win you games. they help, but they don't win you games. a lot of the time the more yards you have after say 200 yds the more of a probability is there of your team losing badly, since that would mean you were to be forced to throw the ball more often.

JP to my recollection has never been the lights out QB like say a peyton Manning or a Brady. but he does get the ball to the recievers more often than not. calling nearly nothing but run plays despite your defense being unable to get off the field on 3rd downs and then making up for it by doing nothing but passing in the final quarter of the game because of it is nothing to put on him. He did what he needed to. The history of the Bills' organization for years has been narrowed down to if they start off bad and play bad, they will never finish good. I've been used to this concept for a while now. we are not a good enough team YET to be able to make up right away for our entire games-worth of blunders in the last few minutes of the game. It's just not this team has been lately. If I remember correctly JP has had more last-minute game-wins in the past year for a qb than I've seen from this team in a long time, with Holcomb, Bledsoe, RJ, etc. He can get it done when he's allowed. but until we play smart and realize what we need to do and try to actually confuse the defense instead of staying a monotonous offense like we were this past game, we're not going to do a thing on offense against good defenses. Im not saying I don't like our running game. I love our running game. But the idea of using each type of play is to try and open up certain possiblities (i.e. passing effectively to open up running lanes, or vice versa which I know we can do) so you can keep the defense on their toes. not do the same old stuff to where they know exactly whats coming next.

we as a team and as fans of this team need to learn to want to gameplan better and smarter. We as a team and as fans need to learn to stop wanting to cut our wrists and cry the blues about a player the second something goes wrong. we as a team and as fans need to stop wanting to get rid of players the second something goes wrong. if we keep doing this we'll just end up the same exact way forever. This is a lot of the reason to why we have been so terrible this millenium. we have never given anybody more than 2-3 years of chance, whether its a coach, or a qb. trust me i am sick and tired of losing but for the first time shown last year do i feel like we have a qb and a wr who we can build this team around. now we have a rb who I have loved since the beginning of the offseason who has met every one of my expectations. We are on the right track to progressing into a great team. but we are a young team. young teams are not going to win every single game by 30 points the first few years theyre in the league. especially if a lot of our starters have been seriously hurt.

one thing i think we need to do is change our #2 wr situation since we for some reason made no changed to the playing core this year. Move Reed to #2, Parrish to #3. Price has not proven to me that he is worth anything. I would much rather have the WR's who have the best relationship with the QUARTERBACK on the field. Not the best relations with the team in years past. Evans and Losman obviously have a bond. Reed and Losman have shown to have built a bond this year in the offseason. Parrish and Losman are actually starting to show a bond. we need to build off of this stuff.

so you can use the "excuses.. excuses.." line all you want or the ever-so-loved :deadhorse to try and belittle my ideas and opinions instead of giving actual intellectual reasons as to why you feel differently, which is not what ive seen the past 2 weeks hardly at all on here. and you can even say the favorite line of how "im accepting mediocrity" or "lack-luster qb play" not once have i said im accepting a thing. but numbers dont lie. and sometimes actually having a conversation about something instead of putting people down about their opinions will make things easier to tolerate on here. and the people who have wished for JP to get hurt, whether seriously or not as much (ive seen both) have shown they obviously have no idea of this sport at all. just because you post on a website about football does not mean that you know what the hell you are talking about at all. Some of you need to realize this soon. And im not saying I know what im talking about, but i can back up my opinions 9 times out of 10, which means I actually care about giving everyone an understanding of why I feel the way I do. im expecting nothing but groans, but some of you need to realize you are not the most knowledgable person on here, whether you are someone acting as a character all the time or if you are just somebody who flip-flops around for whatever the message-board concensus is. learn to grow up and actually have your OWN opinion and be able to talk about it like an adult. thats what this site is for. to discuss. not shout one-liners and leave, and then ***** ***** ***** because not everyone feels the same way, and then post the same dribble 85 times either in 1 thread or spreadout in many threads and not expect someone to say anything. those are my 2 cents. take it however way you want. probably wont get any responses to this like usual anyways.

[BidsJr]

we have plenty of people on here whom sorry to say look like they'd be the smarter of the people when they were in school from personal pics, whether you wanna take that as a bad thing or a good thing (this isnt the idea of the thread though just stating). that must me completely incorrect though, because if you were as smart as some of you try n make others seem, you surely would understand math. and if you understood math, surely you would know and possibly understand a thing known as probability. What I mean by probability for those who don't know is if I were to say for example (without doing any actual math) that JP, let alone any other qb this upcomming week against the pats wuld have say a 1:100 shot for having a lights out game against probably the best team I've seen in a long time, or 1:let's say 50 for having a great game, whether we win or lose. now some teams are obviously going to change the probability for how our QB play would be, and since the first 3 games of this season are against great defenses, our probable chance of having an excellent QB play (or really offensive play at all) is a lot slimmer of a chance than say if we played the Texans. Not every team is the same. Teams do have a such thing as a good defense and it is hard enough in this league to win a game, let alone put up huge numbers week in week out. JP has shown he can get the ball completed consistantly. And even the probablility of a QB (again unless you are Manning) playing at his very best at the very beginning of a season is going to be a lot lower of a possibilty than say 8 games into the season. Especially if most of the preseason's snaps were given to the backup QB's to see who the backup would be. Look at Brees. He was the best if not one of the best last year. He has started out like the Drew Brees from 3-4 years ago before the emergence of Gates and his fulltime-progression. He has been really slow to catch on right away. You can dispute this all you want and guess what? you would be wrong every time! in the first 2 games, he has averaged about 63.3% completion rating. out of the top 15 qbs in passing yards last year (jp 13th) those qbs for the year averaged a 53.49% completion rating. at the moment JP despite "playing as terrible as the worst qb in the league) is completing #1 better than the average by 10%, and #2 completing better than his yearly average last year (62.5 %). it's 2 games but with the complaining and loss of faith in him, one would think he'd average like around a 54% (mcnabb, bulger, romo). look how 2 of the 3 of those teams are also 0-2. and thats also with teams who have far better teams than ours. yards don't win you games. they help, but they don't win you games. a lot of the time the more yards you have after say 200 yds the more of a probability is there of your team losing badly, since that would mean you were to be forced to throw the ball more often. JP to my recollection has never been the lights out QB like say a peyton Manning or a Brady. but he does get the ball to the recievers more often than not. calling nearly nothing but run plays despite your defense being unable to get off the field on 3rd downs and then making up for it by doing nothing but passing in the final quarter of the game because of it is nothing to put on him. He did what he needed to. The history of the Bills' organization for years has been narrowed down to if they start off bad and play bad, they will never finish good. I've been used to this concept for a while now. we are not a good enough team YET to be able to make up right away for our entire games-worth of blunders in the last few minutes of the game. It's just not this team has been lately. If I remember correctly JP has had more last-minute game-wins in the past year for a qb than I've seen from this team in a long time, with Holcomb, Bledsoe, RJ, etc. He can get it done when he's allowed. but until we play smart and realize what we need to do and try to actually confuse the defense instead of staying a monotonous offense like we were this past game, we're not going to do a thing on offense against good defenses. Im not saying I don't like our running game. I love our running game. But the idea of using each type of play is to try and open up certain possiblities (i.e. passing effectively to open up running lanes, or vice versa which I know we can do) so you can keep the defense on their toes. not do the same old stuff to where they know exactly whats coming next. we as a team and as fans of this team need to learn to want to gameplan better and smarter. We as a team and as fans need to learn to stop wanting to cut our wrists and cry the blues about a player the second something goes wrong. we as a team and as fans need to stop wanting to get rid of players the second something goes wrong. if we keep doing this we'll just end up the same exact way forever. This is a lot of the reason to why we have been so terrible this millenium. we have never given anybody more than 2-3 years of chance, whether its a coach, or a qb. trust me i am sick and tired of losing but for the first time shown last year do i feel like we have a qb and a wr who we can build this team around. now we have a rb who I have loved since the beginning of the offseason who has met every one of my expectations. We are on the right track to progressing into a great team. but we are a young team. young teams are not going to win every single game by 30 points the first few years theyre in the league. especially if a lot of our starters have been seriously hurt. one thing i think we need to do is change our #2 wr situation since we for some reason made no changed to the playing core this year. Move Reed to #2, Parrish to #3. Price has not proven to me that he is worth anything. I would much rather have the WR's who have the best relationship with the QUARTERBACK on the field. Not the best relations with the team in years past. Evans and Losman obviously have a bond. Reed and Losman have shown to have built a bond this year in the offseason. Parrish and Losman are actually starting to show a bond. we need to build off of this stuff.

so you can use the "excuses.. excuses.." line all you want or the ever-so-loved :deadhorse to try and belittle my ideas and opinions instead of giving actual intellectual reasons as to why you feel differently, which is not what ive seen the past 2 weeks hardly at all on here. and you can even say the favorite line of how "im accepting mediocrity" or "lack-luster qb play" not once have i said im accepting a thing. but numbers dont lie. and sometimes actually having a conversation about something instead of putting people down about their opinions will make things easier to tolerate on here. and the people who have wished for JP to get hurt, whether seriously or not as much (ive seen both) have shown they obviously have no idea of this sport at all. just because you post on a website about football does not mean that you know what the hell you are talking about at all. Some of you need to realize this soon. And im not saying I know what im talking about, but i can back up my opinions 9 times out of 10, which means I actually care about giving everyone an understanding of why I feel the way I do. im expecting nothing but groans, but some of you need to realize you are not the most knowledgable person on here, whether you are someone acting as a character all the time or if you are just somebody who flip-flops around for whatever the message-board concensus is. learn to grow up and actually have your OWN opinion and be able to talk about it like an adult. thats what this site is for. to discuss. not shout one-liners and leave, and then ***** ***** ***** because not everyone feels the same way, and then post the same dribble 85 times either in 1 thread or spreadout in many threads and not expect someone to say anything. those are my 2 cents. take it however way you want. probably wont get any responses to this like usual anyways.


WTH is this?

My head hurts.

[Mitchy moo]

Logical:

Atlanta / Kansas City are the only 2 teams with less points for than us minus the 1 TD our ST gave us, so you can make a case we have the worst offensive production.

Atlanta and KC both had 2 away games and we had 1 home and 1 away.

Smart:

The coaches have little to no faith in JP nor his playing ability and do not trust him with the rock.

JP cannot run a stand and deliver offense using his feet.

JP was a TD project and every other thing that TD brought to the table has failed us. (note TD's inability to find new employment)

[evol4276]

Logical:

Atlanta / Kansas City are the only 2 teams with less points for than us minus the 1 TD our ST gave us, so you can make a case we have the worst offensive production.

Atlanta and KC both had 2 away games and we had 1 home and 1 away.

Smart:

The coaches have little to no faith in JP nor his playing ability and do not trust him with the rock.

JP cannot run a stand and deliver offense using his feet.

JP was a TD project and every other thing that TD brought to the table has failed us. (note TD's inability to find new employment) yea as i said i know we havent had a good offensive outing at all. but given what we can take he has actually gotten the ball to the recievers. we just need to trust him more and really need to stop being the most scared team in the league because "boohoo we start off with 3 really hard games." every game in the nfl is hard. our coaches need to be smart with their gameplans and actually mix it up and use our strengths to our advantages instead of worrying about what COULD happen against good d's. you don't know until you try. and we haven't really shown yet that we really want to try. as much as i hate to say, the coaching really pisses me off at the moment. but im not calling for a change, unless it stays the same throughout the year and we get no progression whatsoever, cuz then thatll just show that they really honestly dont care if this team wins or loses and has the mindset that "oh we lost some starters. we cant win now." NE has proven over and over again that you can win with backups. we are not NE obviously, but we dont need to have the losing mentality because we lost a few starters.

[evol4276]

WTH is this?

My head hurts. reasoning? its lengthy but w/e lol proves my point

[Mitchy moo]

yea as i said i know we havent had a good offensive outing at all. but given what we can take he has actually gotten the ball to the recievers. we just need to trust him more and really need to stop being the most scared team in the league because "boohoo we start off with 3 really hard games." every game in the nfl is hard. our coaches need to be smart with their gameplans and actually mix it up and use our strengths to our advantages instead of worrying about what COULD happen against good d's. you don't know until you try. and we haven't really shown yet that we really want to try. as much as i hate to say, the coaching really pisses me off at the moment. but im not calling for a change, unless it stays the same throughout the year and we get no progression whatsoever, cuz then thatll just show that they really honestly dont care if this team wins or loses and has the mindset that "oh we lost some starters. we cant win now." NE has proven over and over again that you can win with backups. we are not NE obviously, but we dont need to have the losing mentality because we lost a few starters.

Whatever plays the coaches call will not be designed for running out of the pocket, unless it's some type of screen. We have a stand and deliver type system in place and JP cannot stand still, therein lies the trouble. You are looking at the coaches and thinking give Jp a chance but he can't even get 101 stuff done so how do you give him 104 stuff? You don't and you can't, the experiment is over.

[evol4276]

Whatever plays the coaches call will not be designed for running out of the pocket, unless it's some type of screen. We have a stand and deliver type system in place and JP cannot stand still, therein lies the trouble. You are looking at the coaches and thinking give Jp a chance but he can't even get 101 stuff done so how do you give him 104 stuff? You don't and you can't, the experiment is over. well to be honest i wuld love to see more continuity in the line play before stating that he cant do the basics. ive seen him surrounded and trounced on a number of plays in a matter of a second and it sucks because we have spent so much money on this line this year and they still cant protect any better than the crapful of guys we had last year. i really do not understand it at all. like i thought our line coach was supposed to be one of the best in the league?

[Mitchy moo]

well to be honest i wuld love to see more continuity in the line play before stating that he cant do the basics. ive seen him surrounded and trounced on a number of plays in a matter of a second and it sucks because we have spent so much money on this line this year and they still cant protect any better than the crapful of guys we had last year. i really do not understand it at all. like i thought our line coach was supposed to be one of the best in the league?

He had multiple plays of many seconds, yet it didn't matter. I think our line is ok minus a few blown assignments.

[evol4276]

He had multiple plays of many seconds, yet it didn't matter. I think our line is ok minus a few blown assignments. those plays when they did what they needed to he's gotten the ball out tho is what im saying. its not like every time hes dropping back he's being sacked or hurried to throw incompletions. just when the line does their assignments (which isnt as often as i would like for what we've spent on them) we can do what we need to. its really the same with any qb tho. his showing of his completion % shows he can get it done when he doesnt need to be running around, tho for some reason he is better scrambling i think

[Mr. Pink]

Paragraphs...new concept...use them.

Anyone got a tylenol?

[evol4276]

Paragraphs...new concept...use them.

Anyone got a tylenol? ok for the record: this is not english class. im not writing a paper. i am not an english major by far. i am not a sports analyst for some website. i do not write for a living. im sorry i can't write user-friendly posts flowing with chapters and sections all the time. im sorry. but if you dont wanna read it then dont read it. this is the internet. noone is going to write perfectly all the time. enuf with the one-liners already please im trying to spark an actual conversation here about FOOTBALL. not my writing flaws.

[evol4276]

there tried splitting it up a little.. sry that was so impossible to read i jus ranted kinda

[PcA125]

and if you understood math, surely you would know and possibly understand a thing known as probability.

What I mean by probability for those who don't know is if I were to say for example (without doing any actual math) that JP, let alone any other qb this upcomming week against the pats wuld have say a 1:100 shot for having a lights out game against probably the best team I've seen in a long time, or 1:let's say 50 for having a great game, whether we win or lose. now some teams are obviously going to change the probability for how our QB play would be, and since the first 3 games of this season are against great defenses, our probable chance of having an excellent QB play (or really offensive play at all) is a lot slimmer of a chance than say if we played the Texans.
I have a few things to say here... 1) you said that if we understood math then we would understand what you are trying to prove... but then you go on to use made up stats. That kind of confused me. 2) We arnt asking for a lights out game or even a great game.... we just want something better. the last 2 games have been terrible. This has been said before, but why cant we judge our O against the GOOD defenses of the league instead of the ones that we are supposed to beat.


in the first 2 games, he has averaged about 63.3% completion rating. But look at the yards he is putting up

yards don't win you games. they help, but they don't win you games. a lot of the time the more yards you have after say 200 yds the more of a probability is there of your team losing badly, since that would mean you were to be forced to throw the ball more often. I dissagree. Look at the teams that played against us. Were they losing badly when they put up all those yards against us in the air?

calling nearly nothing but run plays despite your defense being unable to get off the field on 3rd downs and then making up for it by doing nothing but passing in the final quarter of the game because of it is nothing to put on him. The words despite your defense being able to get off the field should not be an issue here. They are on the field for the entire game because the O goes 3 and out every down.

If I remember correctly JP has had more last-minute game-wins in the past year for a qb than I've seen from this team in a long time, with Holcomb, Bledsoe, RJ, etc. What? how many did he have... two? I cant remember exactly but its really not that impressive.




A few things stood out to me in your post. Im not trying to attack you personally, but i do not agree with most of what you said. Im not claiming to be a football genius, just a fan.

[evol4276]

A few things stood out to me in your post. Im not trying to attack you personally, but i do not agree with most of what you said. Im not claiming to be a football genius, just a fan. ok finally someone else trying. thank you. the thing with the made up stat was all i was tyring to do was explaining the idea of probability for those who didnt knwo what it is. thats the only reason i put a made up stat like that. what i was trying to say is that given what i explained about our preseason and how hardly anyone is on the top of their game 2 games into the season etc. is why i brought that up. sry for the confusion.

also with the passing, i was talking about us passing, not our opponents. last game in the first half we threw 5 times. we prolly had more drop backs but i doubt many more. we didnt start really opening up the passing game until we were down 2 scores. we played super-conservative the 2 games so far and it is not in our best of interests as a team in my opinion.

and the last thing u mentioned is my saying about comebacks. ask anybody here. i even remember seeing it last year when it happened, is that noone here is used to this team coming back from being tied or losing in the last seconds to win the game. yea its only 2 but its 2 more than we've seen prior in a long time, and just the fact that he can do it makes me feel better about him than the everyday shmoe we've found lately

and im only a fan too :-P not at all saying im a genious.

[hydro]

ok for the record: this is not english class. im not writing a paper. i am not an english major by far. i am not a sports analyst for some website. i do not write for a living. im sorry i can't write user-friendly posts flowing with chapters and sections all the time. im sorry. but if you dont wanna read it then dont read it. this is the internet. noone is going to write perfectly all the time. enuf with the one-liners already please im trying to spark an actual conversation here about FOOTBALL. not my writing flaws.

We know its not english class but the point is its easier to read if you split it up. Most people, me included hate reading a big jumble of letters.

[evol4276]

We know its not english class but the point is its easier to read if you split it up. Most people, me included hate reading a big jumble of letters.and i fixed it. i wuldnta gotten pissed if u wulda jus said that instead of seeming like a personal attack or trying to make an ass out of me. it isnt needed all the time

[Yasgur's Farm]

Outstanding thread evol...

There are a number of people posting these past few days who have proven themselves in the past as staunch JP bashers.

Then there are those who had been against JP in the past but saw enough from him last season to switch sides. Now they're back to blaming JP for the 2 complete team collapses to start the season. I guess with them it's just a matter of which way the wind is blowing.

Finally there are those who have recently given into the non JP supporters. These are the individuals who are the most irratating to me (like ex smokers)... But at the same time, I will feel sorry for them in the end... Because JP will lead a team to championship games. I firmly believe that. I sure would hate for that team to be any other than the Bills

They continue to use biased logic and "facts"... For example... "JP throws the ball 30 yards over the receivers head" or "JP has horendous accuracy problems". Obviously these statements CAN'T be true and still maintain a 63% completion rate.

My logic is based on the entire season of 2006... Where he ranked 11th after 16 games... And where he ranked top 5 the last 8 games. It's certainly more logical to base opinions on 16 games vs 2 games where the entire team has collapsed.

[YardRat]

if you were as smart as some of you try n make others seem, you surely would understand math. and if you understood math, surely you would know and possibly understand a thing known as probability.


This first comment is going to appear to have a nasty tone to it, but I don't mean it that way...Honest. If you want to have a serious discussion about math, probability, and any possible relation to the game of football, you shouldn't just pull numbers out of your ass.



our probable chance of having an excellent QB play (or really offensive play at all) is a lot slimmer of a chance than say if we played the Texans.


I'm not looking for excellence out of Losman. Simply playing adequately would suit me just fine.



JP has shown he can get the ball completed consistantly.


Short routes (which he may be complete, but consistently his accuracy is terrible), behind the line of scrimmage wide receiver screens, and the very occasional ball downfield to a wide open receiver aren't good enough to succeed in this league. JP has yet to prove that he can consistently hit a WR or TE downfield on the intermediate routes that are so important in making the rest of the offense work, and he has to show the ability to go through his progressions and hit the open receiver.

One step on the defender is open in this league, and Losman doesn't seem to understand that yet.


in the first 2 games, he has averaged about 63.3% completion rating. out of the top 15 qbs in passing yards last year (jp 13th) those qbs for the year averaged a 53.49% completion rating. at the moment JP despite "playing as terrible as the worst qb in the league) is completing #1 better than the average by 10%, and #2 completing better than his yearly average last year (62.5 %).

Completion percentage means squat. Quality counts over quantity.



but he does get the ball to the recievers more often than not.


I disagree. His stats are misleading because of the number of short throws he completes.


calling nearly nothing but run plays

Go over the play-by-play of the first two games...the disparity between run and pass isn't nearly as lopsided as you insinuate.


we as a team and as fans of this team need to learn to want to gameplan better and smarter. We as a team and as fans need to learn to stop wanting to cut our wrists and cry the blues about a player the second something goes wrong. we as a team and as fans need to stop wanting to get rid of players the second something goes wrong.

This isn't a rookie we're discussing here, like Lynch or Poz. It isn't even a second-year player. JP is in his fourth year, his third consecutive beginning the season as the starter, and he doesn't look much better now than he did on day 1. I'm certainly not expecting JP to look like a HOFer at this point, but I'd sure like to see him look like a legitimate NFL QB.


but numbers dont lie.

Numbers can be manipulated or mis-represented, and the perfect example is JP's completion percentage.

I could give two ****s about JP's stats. I'd glady give up 5 to 10 percentage points on his completion rate if the quality of his completions were more effective in moving the team. I'd accept a 50-50 ratio of turnovers-to-touchdowns if he were actually contributing to the offense putting points on the board. I'd take a mediocre QB rating if he was exhibiting the ability to be a leader on the field, to make the play when it needs to be made, or at least be willing to give the other players on offense a chance to make the play.

Nobody's expecting JP to be a world-beater, but we do expect him to play like he belongs at this level.

[evol4276]

This first comment is going to appear to have a nasty tone to it, but I don't mean it that way...Honest. If you want to have a serious discussion about math, probability, and any possible relation to the game of football, you shouldn't just pull numbers out of your ass.



I'm not looking for excellence out of Losman. Simply playing adequately would suit me just fine.



Short routes (which he may be complete, but consistently his accuracy is terrible), behind the line of scrimmage wide receiver screens, and the very occasional ball downfield to a wide open receiver aren't good enough to succeed in this league. JP has yet to prove that he can consistently hit a WR or TE downfield on the intermediate routes that are so important in making the rest of the offense work, and he has to show the ability to go through his progressions and hit the open receiver.

One step on the defender is open in this league, and Losman doesn't seem to understand that yet.



Completion percentage means squat. Quality counts over quantity.



I disagree. His stats are misleading because of the number of short throws he completes.



Go over the play-by-play of the first two games...the disparity between run and pass isn't nearly as lopsided as you insinuate.



This isn't a rookie we're discussing here, like Lynch or Poz. It isn't even a second-year player. JP is in his fourth year, his third consecutive beginning the season as the starter, and he doesn't look much better now than he did on day 1. I'm certainly not expecting JP to look like a HOFer at this point, but I'd sure like to see him look like a legitimate NFL QB.



Numbers can be manipulated or mis-represented, and the perfect example is JP's completion percentage.

I could give two ****s about JP's stats. I'd glady give up 5 to 10 percentage points on his completion rate if the quality of his completions were more effective in moving the team. I'd accept a 50-50 ratio of turnovers-to-touchdowns if he were actually contributing to the offense putting points on the board. I'd take a mediocre QB rating if he was exhibiting the ability to be a leader on the field, to make the play when it needs to be made, or at least be willing to give the other players on offense a chance to make the play.

Nobody's expecting JP to be a world-beater, but we do expect him to play like he belongs at this level. again my probablility deal was misinterperated which im sorry for i most def wrote that out the wrong way. again alls i was trying to do with the numbers that i made up was just trying to make an example n kinda explain the probability deal, i wasnt trying to say that the numbers i put were supposed to be any meaning other than what it said. for that discrepency i appologize. not good writing.

again with the play calling im not trying to convince you that the playcalling was lopsided but it was awfully conservative. i counted a few times in the first half of the Pitts game where we ran well the 1st or 2nd downs but didnt pick up a first, and on 3rd decided to run again only to fail, or to call a screen play which was unneccesary. we didnt really see the ball getting slinged too often down the field which i have no idea whether it was the wr's getting open or not. i wasnt at the game so i have no idea really. it kinda seemed then (and now while im looking i agree again) that they kinda give up with the pass as soon as he gets sacked or throws an incompletion. like it jus really seems at times we're trying to play it safe with the play calling. again i culd be completely wrong and possibly the wr's culd have not been getting open? but the little short routes are all that seemed to be there when we did pass and i dont really like that. like i dont want him to launch it down the field every other play but more often than we've been. its great that we're trying to dictate the game with our rushing attack which i hope will start working soon, but it kinda seems like its pointless when we cant really keep the opposing offense from scoring and then have us being down in points all game.

i count 1 time before 4:40 left in the 3rd where we called 2 pass plays in a row. then we moved all the way down the field on passing and decided to take lynch out not really use him as a reciever either. i know im kinda all over the place here but what im saying is that yea we did mix it up a bit, but we still used a lot more run plays consecutively than passes until nearly the end of the 3rd. the running is working for us however. im not saying that it isnt. there were a lot of times i saw him hurried and still made the throws, which i think are some of the reasons why all his throws were short. again i am disappointed with the line right now. ive seen him pressured and hurried a lot and it kinda isnt fair for the guy to need to get rid of it .5 seconds after the snap. no not every time did he need to but a lot of times, yes. i think once our line becomes more familiar with each other and a little more dominant we will all be suprised at how much better the play will be from the QB and RB both. I have faith in that.

[Wys Guy]

Paragraphs...new concept...use them.

Anyone got a tylenol?
LOL

[evol4276]

LOL any input? i already changed the paragraphing

[Yasgur's Farm]

I'm not gonna call you out by name... But "insert stat here don't mean sheet" is a bunch of crap. You can't just pick and choose the stats that support your case and dismiss all the others... You can ignore them... But you can't invalidate them.

[colin]

aside from the fact that jp is our qb and seems like a good kid what reason does anyone have to think he is or will be good?

he's beyond the developement stage for a qb, so unless he really is the latest blooming qb to be taken in the first round, he isn't just gonna snap and be good.

the only thing i've seen is the ability to chuck the long bomb very well. that's a great skill, and in the winds and cold in b-lo (mixed in with a decent running game) that can break other teams backs.

the problem is if the D thinks that is what you are going for, they blitz and stunt and keep LBs up close and safties far back to make the run and long pass very hard. this is what Ds did in the 70s and 80s before the west coast O and more efficient passing games were introduced. the reason why they don't do that now is because the modern nfl qb will torch you with a well times slant or skinny post, a stop route, or a deep out. all of these routes and throws require the qb to throw a good pass before the pressure gets to him and he has to throw to a spot and let the wr make a play.

i've just never once seen jp make those kind of plays. our opponents have learned to blitz and cover, and dare him to make any high percentage play for a first down. he just won't. he looks primary, and then he looks 3 yard standing still check down. he doesn't hit the wr on the check down in the hands either, if he did we'd have a shot at a first sometimes.

in the nfl today the most important thing a qb can do is make quality reads and decisions with the football, followed by throws that get to the target (as opposed to super duper bombs, although those help). jp can't do that and that's why he doesn't have what an NFL qb needs to win.