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Coach Sal
09-20-2007, 08:23 AM
I also explain this in my Bills/Pats preview show (thread at top of this forum). So, if you are more of an audio learner you can skip this and listen instead.
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Steve Fairchild made the following comment this week:

"We're getting pressured, and that exposes you. When you play a pressure defense, which we have the first two weeks, you have to make plays in the passing game. When you do you usually have big days. We just haven't made enough of them."
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At first glance, it appears he's calling out the offensive line for not being able to handle the pass rush, causing JP not to have enough time to get rid of the football. But he's not. He's actually indirectly pointing a finger at either Losman, the WRs, or both. He's saying they aren't handling the "hot reads" well enough. Not making quick enough adjustments to the blitzes they are seeing.

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Let me explain how a "hot read" normally works, and you'll understand what I mean. It's actually quite easy.

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A wide receiver splits out wide. He has to take a look at the very first defender to his inside (other than a DL). If that defender blitzes when the ball is snapped, it is the WRs responsibility to go directly to that vacated area and look for the football. It's also the QBs responsibility to see the blitzer and dump the ball to that spot.

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Of course, the QB can't do it blindly. He has to take a quick peak at the area the blitzer came from and make sure the WR is there before he throws. So, if the WR doesn't make the adjustment, neither can the QB. And the reverse is true. If the QB doesn't see and make the adjustment, the WR is left standing in a spot other than where the intended route was designed. That will cause the QB to look for him, hold the ball, and most likely be sacked.

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It's basic rules: First defender to your inside blitzes, you go and REPLACE him at that spot. QB sees blitzer, he throws to where he came from at pre-snap.

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The Bills did this perfectly last year in their home opener against the Jets. Remember Roscoe's TD on the 2nd play of the game? He did a great job of dumping down into the vacated zone after the blitz. Here's the video link: http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter?game_id=28893&displayPage=tab_gamecenter&season=2006&week=REG3

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Unfortunately, you can't see the blitzer before and during the snap, but you can see him trailing the play after Roscoe catches the ball and figure out what happened (but I remember it at the time as being a terrific hot read pick-up). JP took all of maybe one second to look and throw it to the right spot on that play, too.

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Do defenses know this and counter by rolling another player to that spot sometimes? Of course (a zone blitz is a perfect example). But remember, for every defender they do that with, they leave another area exposed. So, usually, DCs will just take their chances at the offense not recognizing the blitz (maybe be disguising it) and/or getting to the QB before he gets rid of it. The fewer areas they have to roll to, and fewer players they have to move after the snap, the better off they are. So, they usually just call it and go with it.

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All of this adds up to Steve Fairchild's hidden message: The QB and/or the WRs re not doing a good enough job of either blitz recognition and/or getting to their spots and getting the ball to them when they do recognize it.

Dr. Lecter
09-20-2007, 08:26 AM
Nice Analysis coach.

I did notice a few sacks in the Pitt game it looked like JP was looking to pass the ball, but pumped and brought it back in.

Not sure what that means, but he did so.

DraftBoy
09-20-2007, 08:27 AM
a traditional hot read usually involved the QB calling the adjustment out to the wideout so that both players are on the same page not just the wide out seeing the blitzer and the QB seeing him. They have to communicate somehow on that, like Peyton does for the Colts.

Dr. Lecter
09-20-2007, 08:28 AM
Can't always be done DB. Sometimes the adjustment has to come Post-snap.

DraftBoy
09-20-2007, 08:30 AM
Can't always be done DB. Sometimes the adjustment has to come Post-snap.

No doubt but right now we are seeing neither happen

Coach Sal
09-20-2007, 08:32 AM
a traditional hot read usually involved the QB calling the adjustment out to the wideout so that both players are on the same page not just the wide out seeing the blitzer and the QB seeing him. They have to communicate somehow on that, like Peyton does for the Colts.

Good point.

But in today's world of zone blitzes and disguised coverages, the blitz is often not sen pre-snap.

But yes, if it is, that has to be communicated somehow as you said.

Jim Kelly was good at that.....but the no-huddle allowed him much more pre-snap time to see the field and read the what was coming and make the adjustments.

The Colts don't huddle a lot, either, which gives Manning the same advantages.

But Kelly and Manning were/are both very smart QBs. JP is no where near that level right now.

Dr. Lecter
09-20-2007, 08:37 AM
One thing I got from the different PC's is that JP is still not allowed to audible or it is limited. While realizing the coaches might be saying he can't handle it, leaving the guy in an impossible situation (i.e. the pass to Peerless on 3rd down from the 5) is also pointless and will not allow the team to win.

If he can't do that, he is not good enough. Let him try and see what happens.

OpIv37
09-20-2007, 08:46 AM
If I remember correctly, wasn't it the same type of problem that stifled Kevin Gilbride's offense? His system depended on the QB and the WR making the same read at the LOS to determine the route- and that's why so many of Bledsoe's passes went to a vacant spot on the field (or into the waiting arms of a defender). Either the WR or Bledsoe made the wrong read- the whole system was too complex.

jamze132
09-20-2007, 08:56 AM
Well if JP is not making the read early enough, he has the stuff needed to break contain and get another second or so. I have no idea why Jauron and Co. want to keep him in the pocket and take away another dimension to JP's game. Not to mention the fact that just about every defense has trouble defending a QB that liked to exit the pocket. Now, in no way am I advocating that JP plays like Vick or Young, but making him stay in the pocket is plain stupid. Let him make **** happen.

Ingtar33
09-20-2007, 11:43 AM
Gilbride's system used multiple routs per passing play, depending on both the blitz and coverages.

it was a degree more complex then a simply hot rout.

Sal nailed the explanation pretty much perfectly, though, at the nfl level, oftentimes the QB has to throw it to the area of the blitz without checking if the WR ran a hot rout.

I've seen jp, double clutch while looking in the direction of the blitz, so he's checking for the WR and either, they're zone blitzing (likely with Pittsburgh) or the WR is covered/not running the hot rout.

Though of course i also remember the first sack of the pit game, and i was screaming for him to throw the ball. he held it WAY too long even for a deep pass.

the offense has a lot of things wrong with it, from QB and WR, to defense.

RedEyE
09-20-2007, 11:46 AM
It's not a complex system though. It just requires decisive throws and the QB has to trust his instincts a little as well. JP has only thrown 1 int. That' great, and I'm not condoning giving up the ball, but you can't be afraid to turn it over either. You have to gamble time and time again to beat the blitz and by beating the blitz you will in turn keep them honest. JP has got to get better at making decisions. And yes, the WR need to make better reads on the blitz, but the trust factor starts behind center.

This is high school stuff though. He's learned all of this years ago and shouldn't be working on this his 4th year in the NFL.

TigerJ
09-20-2007, 11:50 AM
If I remember correctly, wasn't it the same type of problem that stifled Kevin Gilbride's offense? His system depended on the QB and the WR making the same read at the LOS to determine the route- and that's why so many of Bledsoe's passes went to a vacant spot on the field (or into the waiting arms of a defender). Either the WR or Bledsoe made the wrong read- the whole system was too complex.

That is essentially true. However, I think Gilbride's offense took to an extreme the necessity of both WR and QB making multiple reads. It sounds to me as if all offenses have to have some means of allowing QB and WR to make a hot read. All offenses have some mechanism built in to tell the WR and QB, "if the DB does this, you do that." It's just a matter of degree.

Wys Guy
09-20-2007, 11:58 AM
All of this adds up to Steve Fairchild's hidden message: The QB and/or the WRs re not doing a good enough job of either blitz recognition and/or getting to their spots and getting the ball to them when they do recognize it.

Perhaps. But where's the analysis of Losman's inaccuracy when he does fire it off in time?

Where's the analysis of his stretching out our WRs destining them for IR?

Where's the analysis of our line blocking so horridly that they can rarely, not even sometimes, get good blocking even just with their particular man on blitzes? It seems as if no one's directly in front of them to block they don't know what to do like German field troops in WWII w/o specific orders.

Fairchild doesn't know what he's doing. He too like Levy and Fewell, are OJT coordinators. Jauron's just a loser.

Lastly, the reasons why with a year's worth of film already, now clinic films on how to not merely beat us, but dust us, other coaches, at least the mediocre to better ones won't do the same exact things is why now?

Also, while preseason is meaningless to many, we didn't play any teams that can even moderately be considered "pressure teams" yet our performances there was identical.

I appreciate your desire to find a one-sy or two-sy "reason" as to why we suck Coach, but let's be real, these guys are somewhere between entirely unqualified, incompetent, poorly led at all levels, do not have the talent to begin with, and in general just lousy overall.

The reasons for why this team stinks permeates the entire organization from top to bottom although I will lift my hat to Brandon and the marketing department who are selling tubes of rat crap as toothpaste.

And how about Jim McNally. Sweet mother of mercy when is that guy going to get canned. He puts a new meaning to the word "teflon."

Ickybaluky
09-20-2007, 11:58 AM
Fairchild's system doesn't call for audibles because that is the philosophy. You run the play. It is the same system that Mike Martz/Ernie Zampese have used with the Rams with great success. It goes all the way back to Sid Gillman and the high-scoring San Diego teams.

Not being able to call audibles isn't the issue, because it is part of the philosophy. It has nothing to do with J.P. being able to handle it or not, rather it has to do with executing the offense.

A lot of offenses use option routes that require the WR to adjust their routes based on a read of the defense. The Patriots use that philosophy as much as anyone today, requiring the WR to cut their routes off based on a blitz read (or perhaps a different read) and Brady to make the same read. Sometimes Brady calls an audible pre-snap that changes the WR's route, but more often he is just setting protection and requiring the WR to make the proper read on his own.

HHURRICANE
09-20-2007, 12:04 PM
I've seen jp, double clutch while looking in the direction of the blitz, so he's checking for the WR and either, they're zone blitzing (likely with Pittsburgh) or the WR is covered/not running the hot rout.

You are a great poster but I'm not sure I agree on why JP is not getting rid of the ball.

I actually think that JP is having a problem that he'll never get past. I think he is indecisive and can't see the field very well. He misses the play called and than panics to fin a solution.

Dr. Lecter
09-20-2007, 12:07 PM
And how about Jim McNally. Sweet mother of mercy when is that guy going to get canned. He puts a new meaning to the word "teflon."

I am a little surprised by this.

The O-Line is about the only non-ST unit playing worth a damn this year.

Wys Guy
09-20-2007, 12:20 PM
You are a great poster but I'm not sure I agree on why JP is not getting rid of the ball.

I actually think that JP is having a problem that he'll never get past. I think he is indecisive and can't see the field very well. He misses the play called and than panics to fin a solution.
I agree w/ you Hurricane.

His short game was problematic last year. Nearly half of his TDs were "from afar" ala Bledsoe and he was utterly ineffective in the red zone and/or w/ pressure.

His short passes were off particularly in key situations. This year, if you look at the data/facts, you'll notice that most of his incompletions are of the short variety. If you've watched the games it's easily notable that it's not because he's hitting his receivers in the numbers and they're just dropping passes.

Denver's D was good, not great. Pitt's is excellent although perhaps still not even superlative on this season. New England, from what they've shown this year, may well be on pace to be among the NFL's all-time best Ds this season.

Anyway, I digress. There are a lot of problems, but Losman's is his short game. Bledsoe had the same one. If you strip off all of the deep throws, which you can do particularly with Fairchild as the OC, then we really had nothing last year and one of the worst offenses that this team as a franchise has ever seen having thrown only 8 TDs from within the red zone w/o a whole lot of rushing production in that way either.

People seem to think that the Rams' offensive style is like Air Coryell where you air it out and heave deep balls constantly. But that's far from the case. In fact, of Bulger's 24 TDs or so last season, like 21 were from w/in the red zone or something like that and the vast majority of those from within the 1-9 yard area.

Are we that way? Hardly. We're the diametric opposite.

To be that way you need a QB that can hit WRs a second or two after their initial break and get rid of it quickly. To do that you need a QB capable of making extremely quick pre-snap reads.

JP apparently cannot do that well and his accuracy on his short passes, as predicted by me prior to this season starting, would define him as an NFL QB going forward. Particularly in this system, at least if in fact it is what the Rams do, which frankly, hasn't been the case. Hell, we're really not doing much of anything. A college team should be able to generate 100-150 yards of offense.

Either way, we were assured by the coaches and team that the preseason wasn't meaningful while I disagreed. They claimed that they were withholding all things good for the regular season.

Well, the Denver game is what exposed us if I can apply that word here. Denver's coverage in close is average at best. We should have been able to, w/ a good short-throwing QB, light up their front-7 area within the first ten yards of scrimmage, via passes to our TEs, HBs, and RBs yet didn't.

Why not? Because JP's not capable of it. Will that change? Perhaps, but with every passing game it's not looking too good.

He will be pressured on Sunday and we'll see what happens there although I'm guessing several INTs.

This team does one thing well on O and that's hit Evans deep left-sideline. Unfortunately that's not nearly enough to establish much of an offense regardless of how many times that connection gets made within typical boundaries on the season there. I.e., unless Evans has 2,800 yards and 26 TDs, it's not nearly enough to win games with any regularity on its own.

We need something else and the 80 or so ypg average that Lynch provides or JP's other passing "contributions" are woefully lacking.

Wys Guy
09-20-2007, 12:21 PM
I am a little surprised by this.

The O-Line is about the only non-ST unit playing worth a damn this year.

As evidence by?

Dr. Lecter
09-20-2007, 12:23 PM
As evidence by?

The fact that JP actually has time to throw the ball for one (Although he is choosing not to do so).

Wys Guy
09-20-2007, 12:28 PM
The fact that JP actually has time to throw the ball for one (Although he is choosing not to do so).
He does at times, but far from consistently.

Are we watching the same games?

You tend to argue things that are not there.

You are also making the same mistake that many are now making, trying to pin the woes of an entire offense on JP as QB. He's part and parcel of the issues, but by from the entire problem or even close.

Philagape
09-20-2007, 12:37 PM
So Fairchild's failure is two-fold:

-- He designs an offense that does not take advantage of the players' skills.
-- He does not allow the players to adjust to what is on the field. JP may be able to do this, but we'll never know.

It's Gilbride and Moolarkey all over again.

Wraith
09-20-2007, 12:45 PM
Wys, you're off on a few things.

I wrote this in another post and am cutting and pasting here for your benefit:

"Some more stats to back up the thread starter:

Losman threw for over 200 yards 7 times last season, including the last three in a row [NYJ, MIN, @DET, @HOU, MIA, TEN, @BAL]. Long bombs to Lee Evans occured in TWO of those games [@HOU, @BAL].

Losman threw for over 150 yards 12 times last season, including the last 7 in a row [@NE, NYJ, MIN, @DET, NE, @HOU, JAC, SD, @NYJ, MIA, TEN, @BAL]. Bombs to Lee Evans occured in only THREE of them [@HOU, @NYJ, @BAL].

Losman's longest passes for the season, by game and in order were: 20, 19, 51, 23, 19, 44, 56, 43, 24, 83, 30, 23, 77, 37, 52, 52. That's eight that went over 40 yards. Of that, one was a quick slant to Parrish (51 yards NYJ) and one was a broken play to Parrish (44 @DET).

Losman had an overall completion percentage last year of 62.5%, good enough for 9th overall in the league. He had 10 games with a completion percentage over 60%, and two games with a completion percentage of 70%.

Finally, Losman had a completion percentage of 67.4% on passes thrown behind the line of scrimmage, ranking him 11th out of the top 33 QBs last year. He had a completion percentage of 74.0% last year on passes thrown 1-10 yards in the air, ranking him THIRD out of the top 33 QBs from last season. This season his completion percentage have gone up in BOTH of those categories, to 66.7% and 76.0% respectively.

There is nothing wrong with his short game. Losman does not rely on the deep ball alone. One need only to watch this video from this past Sunday to see that Losman does not lock onto receivers, goes through progressions, and can rid of the ball very quickly:

http://www.buffalobills.com/multimedia/index.html"

For Wys, I will also add that of Losman's 19 touchdown passes, 8 came from passes thrown 1-10 yards while only 5 came from passes thrown more than 30 yards. I will also point out that in the red zone, Losman was 19/33 (57.6%) with 8 touchdowns, 1 interception, and an overall passer rating of 94.1. Hardly "utterly" ineffective.

The last buffalo fan
09-20-2007, 01:12 PM
Wys, you're off on a few things.

I wrote this in another post and am cutting and pasting here for your benefit:

"Some more stats to back up the thread starter:

Losman threw for over 200 yards 7 times last season, including the last three in a row [NYJ, MIN, @DET, @HOU, MIA, TEN, @BAL]. Long bombs to Lee Evans occured in TWO of those games [@HOU, @BAL].

Losman threw for over 150 yards 12 times last season, including the last 7 in a row [@NE, NYJ, MIN, @DET, NE, @HOU, JAC, SD, @NYJ, MIA, TEN, @BAL]. Bombs to Lee Evans occured in only THREE of them [@HOU, @NYJ, @BAL].

Losman's longest passes for the season, by game and in order were: 20, 19, 51, 23, 19, 44, 56, 43, 24, 83, 30, 23, 77, 37, 52, 52. That's eight that went over 40 yards. Of that, one was a quick slant to Parrish (51 yards NYJ) and one was a broken play to Parrish (44 @DET).

Losman had an overall completion percentage last year of 62.5%, good enough for 9th overall in the league. He had 10 games with a completion percentage over 60%, and two games with a completion percentage of 70%.

Finally, Losman had a completion percentage of 67.4% on passes thrown behind the line of scrimmage, ranking him 11th out of the top 33 QBs last year. He had a completion percentage of 74.0% last year on passes thrown 1-10 yards in the air, ranking him THIRD out of the top 33 QBs from last season. This season his completion percentage have gone up in BOTH of those categories, to 66.7% and 76.0% respectively.

There is nothing wrong with his short game. Losman does not rely on the deep ball alone. One need only to watch this video from this past Sunday to see that Losman does not lock onto receivers, goes through progressions, and can rid of the ball very quickly:

http://www.buffalobills.com/multimedia/index.html"

For Wys, I will also add that of Losman's 19 touchdown passes, 8 came from passes thrown 1-10 yards while only 5 came from passes thrown more than 30 yards. I will also point out that in the red zone, Losman was 19/33 (57.6%) with 8 touchdowns, 1 interception, and an overall passer rating of 94.1. Hardly "utterly" ineffective.


:bf1: No comments.

mchurchfie
09-20-2007, 01:14 PM
I have a comment, he left out the most important stat, 0-2.:ill:

Earthquake Enyart
09-20-2007, 01:16 PM
Diametric opposite is redundant.

It doewsn't matter what play is called if the QB can't decide fast enough where to throw the ball.

The last buffalo fan
09-20-2007, 01:17 PM
There is nothing wrong with his short game. Losman does not rely on the deep ball alone. One need only to watch this video from this past Sunday to see that Losman does not lock onto receivers, goes through progressions, and can rid of the ball very quickly:

http://www.buffalobills.com/multimedia/index.html"



By the way, that first flag on LEvans (at the end of the video) Was totally home ****ing advantage, totally bull****. He just put the ball on the defender's hands, Jesus!!!!! And of course the second one, oh boy, that was a ****ing pass interference, even at the Pats field!! :monkeyp: NFL & The Refs!!

Wraith
09-20-2007, 01:19 PM
I have a comment, he left out the most important stat, 0-2.:ill:

What does record have to do with Losman's ability to throw short versus long?

Coach Sal
09-20-2007, 01:27 PM
Perhaps. But where's the analysis of Losman's inaccuracy when he does fire it off in time?

Where's the analysis of his stretching out our WRs destining them for IR?

Where's the analysis of our line blocking so horridly that they can rarely, not even sometimes, get good blocking even just with their particular man on blitzes? It seems as if no one's directly in front of them to block they don't know what to do like German field troops in WWII w/o specific orders.

Fairchild doesn't know what he's doing. He too like Levy and Fewell, are OJT coordinators. Jauron's just a loser.

Lastly, the reasons why with a year's worth of film already, now clinic films on how to not merely beat us, but dust us, other coaches, at least the mediocre to better ones won't do the same exact things is why now?

Also, while preseason is meaningless to many, we didn't play any teams that can even moderately be considered "pressure teams" yet our performances there was identical.

I appreciate your desire to find a one-sy or two-sy "reason" as to why we suck Coach, but let's be real, these guys are somewhere between entirely unqualified, incompetent, poorly led at all levels, do not have the talent to begin with, and in general just lousy overall.

The reasons for why this team stinks permeates the entire organization from top to bottom although I will lift my hat to Brandon and the marketing department who are selling tubes of rat crap as toothpaste.

And how about Jim McNally. Sweet mother of mercy when is that guy going to get canned. He puts a new meaning to the word "teflon."

There's a lot of good stuff in here worthy of discussion.

But I was merely focusing on this particular quote and what our OC felt about a certain aspect of the passing game and how well we handle/don't handle it.

I was not trying to pin the blame on anyone personally or absolve anyone else from the problems of the team overall. You're right. They are numerous.

Earthquake Enyart
09-20-2007, 01:29 PM
Sweet mother of mercy?

What happened to "Well slap my ass and call me Sally."?

Dr. Lecter
09-20-2007, 01:38 PM
He does at times, but far from consistently.

Are we watching the same games?

You tend to argue things that are not there.

You are also making the same mistake that many are now making, trying to pin the woes of an entire offense on JP as QB. He's part and parcel of the issues, but by from the entire problem or even close.

First off, your last paragraph is 100%, inaccurate. And I argue things that are not there?

I have been clear the offense's problems are numerous and is not only the fault of JP, although he does deserve a share of blame. Him not choosing to do so could be due to WR's, TE's, or coaching. So please, be a little more careful on the accusations you make.

As for the rest, I guess we have to disagree. The O-line to me, and others, is much improved. If you look at the times JP has been sacked or hurried, at least half of them are due to the RB's not properly picking up a blitzer (see Lynch getting smoked against Denver)

Philagape
09-20-2007, 01:55 PM
I think the O-line has improved, as far as pass protection

THATHURMANATOR
09-20-2007, 03:13 PM
You are a great poster but I'm not sure I agree on why JP is not getting rid of the ball.

I actually think that JP is having a problem that he'll never get past. I think he is indecisive and can't see the field very well. He misses the play called and than panics to fin a solution.
I will go with the expert here man.

Earthquake Enyart
09-20-2007, 03:15 PM
I will go with the expert here man.
Thanks.

mchurchfie
09-20-2007, 03:23 PM
What does record have to do with Losman's ability to throw short versus long?
Everything, they go hand in hand Bro.

mchurchfie
09-20-2007, 03:24 PM
Thanks.
:spit::laugh:

BidsJr
09-20-2007, 04:03 PM
Wys, you're off on a few things.

I wrote this in another post and am cutting and pasting here for your benefit:

"Some more stats to back up the thread starter:

Losman threw for over 200 yards 7 times last season, including the last three in a row [NYJ, MIN, @DET, @HOU, MIA, TEN, @BAL]. Long bombs to Lee Evans occured in TWO of those games [@HOU, @BAL].

Losman threw for over 150 yards 12 times last season, including the last 7 in a row [@NE, NYJ, MIN, @DET, NE, @HOU, JAC, SD, @NYJ, MIA, TEN, @BAL]. Bombs to Lee Evans occured in only THREE of them [@HOU, @NYJ, @BAL].

Losman's longest passes for the season, by game and in order were: 20, 19, 51, 23, 19, 44, 56, 43, 24, 83, 30, 23, 77, 37, 52, 52. That's eight that went over 40 yards. Of that, one was a quick slant to Parrish (51 yards NYJ) and one was a broken play to Parrish (44 @DET).

Losman had an overall completion percentage last year of 62.5%, good enough for 9th overall in the league. He had 10 games with a completion percentage over 60%, and two games with a completion percentage of 70%.

Finally, Losman had a completion percentage of 67.4% on passes thrown behind the line of scrimmage, ranking him 11th out of the top 33 QBs last year. He had a completion percentage of 74.0% last year on passes thrown 1-10 yards in the air, ranking him THIRD out of the top 33 QBs from last season. This season his completion percentage have gone up in BOTH of those categories, to 66.7% and 76.0% respectively.

There is nothing wrong with his short game. Losman does not rely on the deep ball alone. One need only to watch this video from this past Sunday to see that Losman does not lock onto receivers, goes through progressions, and can rid of the ball very quickly:

http://www.buffalobills.com/multimedia/index.html"

For Wys, I will also add that of Losman's 19 touchdown passes, 8 came from passes thrown 1-10 yards while only 5 came from passes thrown more than 30 yards. I will also point out that in the red zone, Losman was 19/33 (57.6%) with 8 touchdowns, 1 interception, and an overall passer rating of 94.1. Hardly "utterly" ineffective.

WYS took that one between the cheeks.

:rofl:

Wraith
09-20-2007, 05:05 PM
Everything, they go hand in hand Bro.

Really? So Tom Brady absolutely sucking on the long passes to begin his career goes hand in hand with him doing what in first year? Oh yeah, winning the Super Bowl.

Tom Brady went 0 - for his first two seasons on passes thrown 40+ yards. 0 for 5 in 2001 and 0 for 9 with a interception his second year. In fact, on all passes over 30 yards those first two years, Brady was 5 for 42 for 1 touchdown and 3 inteceptions. He had an absolutely horrible downfield passing game. Yet they won the Super Bowl. Why? Just being good or bad at one single facet of quarterbacking DOES NOT go "hand in hand" with record. Bro.

So shut up about me leaving out the most important statistic. I never once in that post said anything about Losman's overall quarterbacking ability or about who or what is to blame for the first two losses. It's simply about the MYTH that Losman can't throw a short pass. Of course, you already knew that and are just posting those dense responses to annoy.

YardRat
09-20-2007, 06:52 PM
Wys, you're off on a few things.

I wrote this in another post and am cutting and pasting here for your benefit:

"Some more stats to back up the thread starter:

Losman threw for over 200 yards 7 times last season, including the last three in a row [NYJ, MIN, @DET, @HOU, MIA, TEN, @BAL]. Long bombs to Lee Evans occured in TWO of those games [@HOU, @BAL].

Losman threw for over 150 yards 12 times last season, including the last 7 in a row [@NE, NYJ, MIN, @DET, NE, @HOU, JAC, SD, @NYJ, MIA, TEN, @BAL]. Bombs to Lee Evans occured in only THREE of them [@HOU, @NYJ, @BAL].

Losman's longest passes for the season, by game and in order were: 20, 19, 51, 23, 19, 44, 56, 43, 24, 83, 30, 23, 77, 37, 52, 52. That's eight that went over 40 yards. Of that, one was a quick slant to Parrish (51 yards NYJ) and one was a broken play to Parrish (44 @DET).

Losman had an overall completion percentage last year of 62.5%, good enough for 9th overall in the league. He had 10 games with a completion percentage over 60%, and two games with a completion percentage of 70%.

Finally, Losman had a completion percentage of 67.4% on passes thrown behind the line of scrimmage, ranking him 11th out of the top 33 QBs last year. He had a completion percentage of 74.0% last year on passes thrown 1-10 yards in the air, ranking him THIRD out of the top 33 QBs from last season. This season his completion percentage have gone up in BOTH of those categories, to 66.7% and 76.0% respectively.

There is nothing wrong with his short game. Losman does not rely on the deep ball alone. One need only to watch this video from this past Sunday to see that Losman does not lock onto receivers, goes through progressions, and can rid of the ball very quickly:

http://www.buffalobills.com/multimedia/index.html"

For Wys, I will also add that of Losman's 19 touchdown passes, 8 came from passes thrown 1-10 yards while only 5 came from passes thrown more than 30 yards. I will also point out that in the red zone, Losman was 19/33 (57.6%) with 8 touchdowns, 1 interception, and an overall passer rating of 94.1. Hardly "utterly" ineffective.

Evans had two 83 yard TD''s last year against Houston, on the first two possessions of the game.

djjimkelly
09-20-2007, 07:04 PM
Wys, you're off on a few things.

I wrote this in another post and am cutting and pasting here for your benefit:

"Some more stats to back up the thread starter:

Losman threw for over 200 yards 7 times last season, including the last three in a row [NYJ, MIN, @DET, @HOU, MIA, TEN, @BAL]. Long bombs to Lee Evans occured in TWO of those games [@HOU, @BAL].

Losman threw for over 150 yards 12 times last season, including the last 7 in a row [@NE, NYJ, MIN, @DET, NE, @HOU, JAC, SD, @NYJ, MIA, TEN, @BAL]. Bombs to Lee Evans occured in only THREE of them [@HOU, @NYJ, @BAL].

Losman's longest passes for the season, by game and in order were: 20, 19, 51, 23, 19, 44, 56, 43, 24, 83, 30, 23, 77, 37, 52, 52. That's eight that went over 40 yards. Of that, one was a quick slant to Parrish (51 yards NYJ) and one was a broken play to Parrish (44 @DET).

Losman had an overall completion percentage last year of 62.5%, good enough for 9th overall in the league. He had 10 games with a completion percentage over 60%, and two games with a completion percentage of 70%.

Finally, Losman had a completion percentage of 67.4% on passes thrown behind the line of scrimmage, ranking him 11th out of the top 33 QBs last year. He had a completion percentage of 74.0% last year on passes thrown 1-10 yards in the air, ranking him THIRD out of the top 33 QBs from last season. This season his completion percentage have gone up in BOTH of those categories, to 66.7% and 76.0% respectively.

There is nothing wrong with his short game. Losman does not rely on the deep ball alone. One need only to watch this video from this past Sunday to see that Losman does not lock onto receivers, goes through progressions, and can rid of the ball very quickly:

http://www.buffalobills.com/multimedia/index.html"

For Wys, I will also add that of Losman's 19 touchdown passes, 8 came from passes thrown 1-10 yards while only 5 came from passes thrown more than 30 yards. I will also point out that in the red zone, Losman was 19/33 (57.6%) with 8 touchdowns, 1 interception, and an overall passer rating of 94.1. Hardly "utterly" ineffective.



GREAT POSTING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

G. Host
09-20-2007, 10:55 PM
So Fairchild's failure is two-fold:

-- He designs an offense that does not take advantage of the players' skills.
-- He does not allow the players to adjust to what is on the field. JP may be able to do this, but we'll never know.

It's Gilbride and Moolarkey all over again.

JP has not shown the ability to recognize defeneses or blitzes in any system.

Philagape
09-20-2007, 11:29 PM
JP has not shown the ability to recognize defeneses or blitzes in any system.

No one has a good year like he did last year without being able to do that.

Yasgur's Farm
09-21-2007, 06:02 AM
Wys, you're off on a few things.

I wrote this in another post and am cutting and pasting here for your benefit:

"Some more stats to back up the thread starter:

Losman threw for over 200 yards 7 times last season, including the last three in a row [NYJ, MIN, @DET, @HOU, MIA, TEN, @BAL]. Long bombs to Lee Evans occured in TWO of those games [@HOU, @BAL].

Losman threw for over 150 yards 12 times last season, including the last 7 in a row [@NE, NYJ, MIN, @DET, NE, @HOU, JAC, SD, @NYJ, MIA, TEN, @BAL]. Bombs to Lee Evans occured in only THREE of them [@HOU, @NYJ, @BAL].

Losman's longest passes for the season, by game and in order were: 20, 19, 51, 23, 19, 44, 56, 43, 24, 83, 30, 23, 77, 37, 52, 52. That's eight that went over 40 yards. Of that, one was a quick slant to Parrish (51 yards NYJ) and one was a broken play to Parrish (44 @DET).

Losman had an overall completion percentage last year of 62.5%, good enough for 9th overall in the league. He had 10 games with a completion percentage over 60%, and two games with a completion percentage of 70%.

Finally, Losman had a completion percentage of 67.4% on passes thrown behind the line of scrimmage, ranking him 11th out of the top 33 QBs last year. He had a completion percentage of 74.0% last year on passes thrown 1-10 yards in the air, ranking him THIRD out of the top 33 QBs from last season. This season his completion percentage have gone up in BOTH of those categories, to 66.7% and 76.0% respectively.

There is nothing wrong with his short game. Losman does not rely on the deep ball alone. One need only to watch this video from this past Sunday to see that Losman does not lock onto receivers, goes through progressions, and can rid of the ball very quickly:

http://www.buffalobills.com/multimedia/index.html"

For Wys, I will also add that of Losman's 19 touchdown passes, 8 came from passes thrown 1-10 yards while only 5 came from passes thrown more than 30 yards. I will also point out that in the red zone, Losman was 19/33 (57.6%) with 8 touchdowns, 1 interception, and an overall passer rating of 94.1. Hardly "utterly" ineffective.GREAT WORK!!

Unfortunately, bashers will ignore these facts and continue making the same old accusations. :monkeyp:

mybills
09-21-2007, 06:08 AM
Really? So Tom Brady absolutely sucking on the long passes to begin his career goes hand in hand with him doing what in first year? Oh yeah, winning the Super Bowl.

Tom Brady went 0 - for his first two seasons on passes thrown 40+ yards. 0 for 5 in 2001 and 0 for 9 with a interception his second year. In fact, on all passes over 30 yards those first two years, Brady was 5 for 42 for 1 touchdown and 3 inteceptions. He had an absolutely horrible downfield passing game. Yet they won the Super Bowl. Why? Just being good or bad at one single facet of quarterbacking DOES NOT go "hand in hand" with record. Bro.

So shut up about me leaving out the most important statistic. I never once in that post said anything about Losman's overall quarterbacking ability or about who or what is to blame for the first two losses. It's simply about the MYTH that Losman can't throw a short pass. Of course, you already knew that and are just posting those dense responses to annoy.
You tell him, Wraith! :up:
:lolpoint: churchie

mchurchfie
09-21-2007, 06:33 AM
Really? So Tom Brady absolutely sucking on the long passes to begin his career goes hand in hand with him doing what in first year? Oh yeah, winning the Super Bowl.

Tom Brady went 0 - for his first two seasons on passes thrown 40+ yards. 0 for 5 in 2001 and 0 for 9 with a interception his second year. In fact, on all passes over 30 yards those first two years, Brady was 5 for 42 for 1 touchdown and 3 inteceptions. He had an absolutely horrible downfield passing game. Yet they won the Super Bowl. Why? Just being good or bad at one single facet of quarterbacking DOES NOT go "hand in hand" with record. Bro.

So shut up about me leaving out the most important statistic. I never once in that post said anything about Losman's overall quarterbacking ability or about who or what is to blame for the first two losses. It's simply about the MYTH that Losman can't throw a short pass. Of course, you already knew that and are just posting those dense responses to annoy.
If you think JP can throw a short pass with any kind of consistency you're the one that is dense, its not a myth dumbass. And once again you prove my point, Brady won a SB with basically nothing but a shortgame. Pretty much like I said, JP's lack of ability on the short to intermediate ball is a good reason why we are 0-2 so stick your stats in your ear.

Dr. Lecter
09-21-2007, 06:34 AM
Yeah!

Forget about the facts you just proved! They don't mean a damn thing!

mchurchfie
09-21-2007, 06:37 AM
GREAT POSTING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

GREAT WORK!!

Unfortunately, bashers will ignore these facts and continue making the same old accusations. :monkeyp:



You tell him, Wraith! :up:
:lolpoint: churchie
Lickers unite.:coocoo:

Wraith
09-21-2007, 06:43 AM
Lickers unite.:coocoo:

Name calling, eh? Ran out of counter arguments?

Wraith
09-21-2007, 06:47 AM
...its not a myth dumbass.
Where's the proof?


...And once again you prove my point, Brady won a SB with basically nothing but a shortgame. Pretty much like I said, JP's lack of ability on the short to intermediate ball is a good reason why we are 0-2 so stick your stats in your ear.

Yeah he did...and it's extremely rare. If that's all it took, Kelly Holcomb would be winning Super Bowls. Have you noticed how th Patriots are destroying teams this year...? With the long ball.

mchurchfie
09-21-2007, 06:48 AM
Name calling, eh? Ran out of counter arguments?
:z:Is that you JP? No wonder you suck, you're spending all of your time on here defending yourself with useless stats.;)

Wraith
09-21-2007, 06:51 AM
:z:Is that you JP? No wonder you suck, you're spending all of your time on here defending yourself with useless stats.;)

Here's an idea, if you can't compose an intelligent counter argument, stay out of the debate. You may like to hear your own voice, but the rest surely don't.

mchurchfie
09-21-2007, 06:52 AM
Where's the proof?




Take a little time off from searching on Google for stats and watch him play, he hangs his receivers out to dry alot on shortballs. Oh yeah, he also hangs on to the ball too long and is terrible at reading the blitz too. Just watch him, its fairly obvious.;)

mybills
09-21-2007, 06:55 AM
If that's all it took, Kelly Holcomb would be winning Super Bowls.

BURN! :roflmao: You got two with one stone that time! :chuckle:

mchurchfie
09-21-2007, 06:55 AM
Here's an idea, if you can't compose an intelligent counter argument, stay out of the debate. You may like to hear your own voice, but the rest surely don't.
:z:Give me some intelligence to counter not a bunch of meaningless stats:z:

Wraith
09-21-2007, 06:59 AM
Take a little time off from searching on Google for stats and watch him play, he hangs his receivers out to dry alot on shortballs.

Do you have any evidence that he does that any more than any other QB in the league? Gee, to my simple mind, if he was so inaccurate that his receivers were getting drilled trying to catch the short passes, it would show up in the data. Like, oh say, completion percentage or yards per catch. After all, if he's so inaccurate, not only are a lot of receivers probably getting hung out to dry, but a lot are probably missing altogether, right? Oh no, wait a minute, Losman has completed nearly 75% of his passes in that range, this year and last. Where does that put him in the league rankings? Oh yeah, THIRD.

Wraith
09-21-2007, 07:03 AM
:z:Give me some intelligence to counter not a bunch of meaningless stats:z:

Stats are meaningless only in the simple minded. Unless you think a GAME like football is indescribable by data but the infinitely more complex manufacturing processes we manage with data every day are...

mchurchfie
09-21-2007, 07:10 AM
Do you have any evidence that he does that any more than any other QB in the league? Gee, to my simple mind, if he was so inaccurate that his receivers were getting drilled trying to catch the short passes, it would show up in the data. Like, oh say, completion percentage or yards per catch. After all, if he's so inaccurate, not only are a lot of receivers probably getting hung out to dry, but a lot are probably missing altogether, right? Oh no, wait a minute, Losman has completed nearly 75% of his passes in that range, this year and last. Where does that put him in the league rankings? Oh yeah, THIRD.
Dude, defend him all you want with your stats. The bottomline is he isn't getting the job done and hasn't through most of his career. A lot of NFL experts are saying that he is a big part of the reason for the offense's failures this year and he needs to step up. You can sit there and watch it right in front of your face and see how skittish he is playing.:ugly: If you want to spend all day looking up stats on the internet trying to prove your intelligence be my guest, I'm sure the lickers will appreciate it since they don't have a leg to stand on anymore.:coocoo:

mchurchfie
09-21-2007, 07:16 AM
Stats are meaningless only in the simple minded. Unless you think a GAME like football is indescribable by data but the infinitely more complex manufacturing processes we manage with data every day are...:z:Football is about scoring and stopping the other team from scoring. Its not about completing 75% of your passes down to the redzone and then coughing it up with an interception or a couple of sacks. Class dismissed.:hang:

Cntrygal
09-21-2007, 07:18 AM
Don't fall into the name calling trap!!!!! It's evil!!!!!!!

Wraith
09-21-2007, 07:18 AM
Dude, defend him all you want with your stats. The bottomline is he isn't getting the job done and hasn't through most of his career. A lot of NFL experts are saying that he is a big part of the reason for the offense's failures this year and he needs to step up. You can sit there and watch it right in front of your face and see how skittish he is playing.:ugly: If you want to spend all day looking up stats on the internet trying to prove your intelligence be my guest, I'm sure the lickers will appreciate it since they don't have a leg to stand on anymore.:coocoo:

I'm going to ignore the comment about a lot of experts because it's not germane to my argument, but I will say that Jerry Sullivan ain't no expert.

Let's try to go over this one more time:

I am making absolutely no claims about Losman's overall quarterbacking ability. None.

I am making no claims about who is or is not responsible for the lack of offense the last two games.

I am talking about Losman's short passing ability and only about Losman's short passing ability. You are unable to provide any evidence that doesn't come from what you think you've seen with your own eyes. Not to be rude, but I discount what you think you've seen because it disagrees with what I've seen with MY own eyes AND when I look the data, the data agrees with me!

Come back with something, anything, that is not a fan or reporters opinion, and we can talk again. Until then, this is pointless.

HHURRICANE
09-21-2007, 07:21 AM
How often does Tom Brady scramble when given time? Almost never. There were times over that last 2 weeks where JP had all day. Instead of making the D pay for it, like Brady would, Losman panics and starts scrambling.

I like scrambling when the pocket breaks down. I don't like it when the offensive line is giving you time and you can't exploit a teams secondary for it.

How many times have the Pats picked up our Blitz and you know that Brady is just going to make you pay?

mchurchfie
09-21-2007, 07:26 AM
I'm going to ignore the comment about a lot of experts because it's not germane to my argument, but I will say that Jerry Sullivan ain't no expert.

Let's try to go over this one more time:

I am making absolutely no claims about Losman's overall quarterbacking ability. None.

I am making no claims about who is or is not responsible for the lack of offense the last two games.

I am talking about Losman's short passing ability and only about Losman's short passing ability. You are unable to provide any evidence that doesn't come from what you think you've seen with your own eyes. Not to be rude, but I discount what you think you've seen because it disagrees with what I've seen with MY own eyes AND when I look the data, the data agrees with me!

Come back with something, anything, that is not a fan or reporters opinion, and we can talk again. Until then, this is pointless.
Excuse me, I'll try to come back with something other than a fan or reporter's opinion next time, I wouldn't want to insult your intelligence since you seemed to have annointed yourself the resident expert on this board these days.:hail:wrath Try pulling your head out of your ass and you'll see the same ****ty performance from JP that everyone else is seeing..short and long ball.;)

Mahdi
09-21-2007, 07:29 AM
Dude, defend him all you want with your stats. The bottomline is he isn't getting the job done and hasn't through most of his career. A lot of NFL experts are saying that he is a big part of the reason for the offense's failures this year and he needs to step up. You can sit there and watch it right in front of your face and see how skittish he is playing.:ugly: If you want to spend all day looking up stats on the internet trying to prove your intelligence be my guest, I'm sure the lickers will appreciate it since they don't have a leg to stand on anymore.:coocoo:
Is it not possible that there is just an overall timing issue with the offense as a whole? Ya JP looks like he is holding on to the ball and being indecisive but the fact is you dont know whats going on downfield because from our tv sets we cant see that. People from this board who have been to the game have even said that there was great coverage all day. And good coverage or no coverage, he had 5 pass attempts in the first half. The rest of the time we watched the defense play. At the end he finished 15-25 and I believe Parrish had 5-6 receptions which were short - intermediate passes, in fact all his throws were between 6-13 yards or so, so how is it that he cant make those throws again?

Wraith
09-21-2007, 07:33 AM
How often does Tom Brady scramble when given time? Almost never. There were times over that last 2 weeks where JP had all day. Instead of making the D pay for it, like Brady would, Losman panics and starts scrambling.

I like scrambling when the pocket breaks down. I don't like it when the offensive line is giving you time and you can't exploit a teams secondary for it.

How many times have the Pats picked up our Blitz and you know that Brady is just going to make you pay?

See, this is another example of what people "think they see" that disagrees with data.

Last season, Tom Brady had 591 drop backs (516 pass attempts, 26 sacks, and 49 scrambles). That is a scramble 8.2% of the time, or one scramble every 12.1 drop backs.

During that same season, Losman had 514 drop backs (429 pass attempts, 47 sacks, and 38 scrambles). That is a scramble 7.4% of the time, or one scramble every 13.5 attempts.

Brady scrambled more frequently than Losman, behind a line that is supposedly light-years better than ours.

HHURRICANE
09-21-2007, 07:33 AM
I'm going to ignore the comment about a lot of experts because it's not germane to my argument, but I will say that Jerry Sullivan ain't no expert.

Let's try to go over this one more time:

I am making absolutely no claims about Losman's overall quarterbacking ability. None.

I am making no claims about who is or is not responsible for the lack of offense the last two games.

I am talking about Losman's short passing ability and only about Losman's short passing ability. You are unable to provide any evidence that doesn't come from what you think you've seen with your own eyes. Not to be rude, but I discount what you think you've seen because it disagrees with what I've seen with MY own eyes AND when I look the data, the data agrees with me!

Come back with something, anything, that is not a fan or reporters opinion, and we can talk again. Until then, this is pointless.

I think you have made some good points in this thread but in fairness I have to say that what happens on the field is what counts. Jerry Sullivan has been pretty fair to JP since being here.

At the end of the day QB is the most important position. David Carr had alot of talent but Schaub is just plain outplaying him on the same team. Romo outplayed Bledsoe, again on the same team.

Most experts have now had the opportunity to watch JP play and nobody is impressed. If Randy Cross does a Bills game and watches JP stink it up he's not going to defer back to the stats.

mchurchfie
09-21-2007, 07:36 AM
I think you have made some good points in this thread but in fairness I have to say that what happens on the field is what counts. Jerry Sullivan has been pretty fair to JP since being here.

At the end of the day QB is the most important position. David Carr had alot of talent but Schaub is just plain outplaying him on the same team. Romo outplayed Bledsoe, again on the same team.

Most experts have now had the opportunity to watch JP play and nobody is impressed. If Randy Cross does a Bills game and watches JP stink it up he's not going to defer back to the stats.
Your missing the point, experts or what happens on the field don't count, its all about the data.:nerd::coocoo:

Wraith
09-21-2007, 07:39 AM
Excuse me, I'll try to come back with something other than a fan or reporter's opinion next time, I wouldn't want to insult your intelligence since you seemed to have annointed yourself the resident expert on this board these days.:hail:wrath Try pulling your head out of your ass and you'll see the same ****ty performance from JP that everyone else is seeing..short and long ball.;)

I addressed a post to Wys, not you, that disputed certain points in his argument. They were well-reasoned and had data to support them. You are the one who came in and started ripping on it, with nothing to support the claims and start calling me names like ******* and licker. Based on that, which one of us is arrogantly trying to come off as an expert, huh? It's not me.

I am by no means an expert, I simply like to have data to support my claims when I open my mouth. It's something I learned in the real world. My very first engineering job, we had a sign above the door to our office complex:

"In God we trust. All others must bring data."

It was by far the most important learning experience of my early career and it's carried me a long way. So forgive me if I think your arguments are not only wrong but simple minded as well.

HHURRICANE
09-21-2007, 07:40 AM
See, this is another example of what people "think they see" that disagrees with data.

Last season, Tom Brady had 591 drop backs (516 pass attempts, 26 sacks, and 49 scrambles). That is a scramble 8.2% of the time, or one scramble every 12.1 drop backs.

During that same season, Losman had 514 drop backs (429 pass attempts, 47 sacks, and 38 scrambles). That is a scramble 7.4% of the time, or one scramble every 13.5 attempts.

Brady scrambled more frequently than Losman, behind a line that is supposedly light-years better than ours.

How many of Brady's scrambles were QB sneaks?

mchurchfie
09-21-2007, 07:41 AM
I am by no means an expert
:hi5:

"In God we trust. All others must bring data."


:nerd:

Wraith
09-21-2007, 07:44 AM
I think you have made some good points in this thread but in fairness I have to say that what happens on the field is what counts.

The data IS what happens on the field. The data doesn't come from thin air.

Good statistics are not the only goal. They are not any goal. They are a means to an end. Winning is the important thing. But data describes what went on, and by learning from the data, you can fix what went wrong and take advantage of what went right.

This is an exchange OpIv37 and I had near the end of last season in a thread about meaningless statistics.


"Originally Posted by OpIv37
Stats are good for helping to determine why a team won or lost, and season stats are good for determining off-season needs.

In the end, the only stat that matters is W-L."

"Orignally Posted by Wraith
Well said.

I have to laugh at everyone who says stats are "meaningless" or "worthless" or whatever. That is total BS.

I work as an engineer in manufacturing. At the end of the day, we measure success by first pass yield. 96% for us is a damn good day. But we measure a whole host of other parameters to ensure we keep the most important statistic, yield, at a desired level.

You would never catch me saying "meh, temperature readouts are worthless, our yield is still good. So what if our temperatures are wildly out of control and we're only 1 degree from degrading the resin?" I would promptly get the crap beaten out of me (figuratively, of course).

Experts have a phrase for getting good results (such as wins) while the process is out of control (such as a horribly imbalanced offense) and it's called the Brink of Chaos. It means everything is not good just because the results are still good. The Colts of the last few years spring immediately to mind. The results were good for a long while, but it was always a matter of time before their short comings caught up with them.

Passing statistics, including QB Rating, and running statistics, have their place as they are used to evaluate the health of the process, and to make necessary adjustments, to ensure the results continue to be positive. Above all else, remember two things about statistics: Know the context of all data presented to you, and they are not an end, but a means to an end."

Wraith
09-21-2007, 08:01 AM
How many of Brady's scrambles were QB sneaks?

The break down for Brady's 49 runs was this:

10 on 3rd/4th and < 2 yards
15 on 1st and 6+
13 on 2nd and 6+
11 on 3rd and 6+

So I would say that 10 out of the 49 runs were sneaks, leaving 39 as scrambles. So I'll throw out the 10 from both his scrambles and dropback numbers:

581 drop backs/39 scrambles = 1 scramble every 14.9 drop backs OR 6.7%

Losman's runs went like this:
9 on 2nd/3rd/4th and < 2 yards
14 on 1st and 6+
7 on 2nd and 6+
6 on 3rd and 6+
2 on 4th and 6+

So I would again say that 9 out of the 38 runs were sneaks, leaving 29 as scrambles. So we'll take out 9 from both his scrambles and dropback numbers:

505 drop backs/29 scrambles = 1 scramble every 17.4 drop backs or 5.7%.

It definitely appears Brady scrambled more than Losman last year. The caveat here is that the assumption that all QB runs with <2 were sneaks and all others were scrambles. It seems like a pretty safe assumption, especially considering that all but one of the assumed sneaks occured on third or 4th down and less than two yards.

DraftBoy
09-21-2007, 08:22 AM
Not to get into the middle of this pissing contest but to say that stats are meaningless is incorrect, to say that data can make your argument is also incorrect. Both of you are both wrong and right. Losman has very good stats, but very poor results. So his statistics do not support the end results. That being said I have said now for two years and this cant be disputed by stats that Losman does not have the proper head to be a starting QB in the NFL. This is proven to me by his inability to adjust anything (though many contend the coaches wont let him, nobody can prove this). He will continually fail to even point out blitzing LB's to his OL so they can make adjustments. He tends to get his timing screwed up by zone blitzes alot and if I was a DC that what I would do. He'll see the hot route and it may or may not be run (we need some serious help at WR) but he also sees a guy there and freezes for half a second and it doesnt quite click as to how that guy is there when he shouldnt be. For the most part though he doesnt throw that pass, he either checks off to another receiver or takes the sack. Losman throws the prettiest deep ball Ive ever seen, but he cant complete an intermediate pass to save his life. His throws that go for between 10-25 yards are usually short throws that are broken by a WR for a longer gain. I dont know what it is about his that prevents him from making those throws but he just cant do it. Just my thoughts. Its Losman's head and lack of communication that is causing this offense woes. Combined with our lack of talent at WR.

Earthquake Enyart
09-21-2007, 08:25 AM
I love the "if you take away the longest plays" argument.

mchurchfie
09-21-2007, 08:25 AM
I addressed a post to Wys, not you, that disputed certain points in his argument. They were well-reasoned and had data to support them. You are the one who came in and started ripping on it, with nothing to support the claims and start calling me names like ******* and licker. Based on that, which one of us is arrogantly trying to come off as an expert, huh? It's not me.


Here are some stats for you....
This was my first innocent response to your self proclaimed "well reasoned" post to Wys.



I have a comment, he left out the most important stat, 0-2.:ill:

Here is your response to that....


What does record have to do with Losman's ability to throw short versus long?

My next innocent response back.....


Everything, they go hand in hand Bro.

Then your panties got all in a bunch..........



So shut up about me leaving out the most important statistic. I never once in that post said anything about Losman's overall quarterbacking ability or about who or what is to blame for the first two losses. It's simply about the MYTH that Losman can't throw a short pass. Of course, you already knew that and are just posting those dense responses to annoy.

So please tell me where I started ripping into you initially?? You're the one that started it with your condincending reply to me. If don't want to get ripped back then don't come off as some arrogant ******* by telling me to shut up or referring to my posts as dense. so far all you've been doing is tooting your horn in here about your being an engineer.:coocoo:

Wraith
09-21-2007, 08:40 AM
You're still here? Give it a rest. You're right, my telling you to shut up was certainly condescending. It was meant to be. It was in direct response to two arrogant and condescending remarks that you've kindly reposted for me. I didn't say ripping on me, I said "ripping on it" as in the original post.

I called your POST dense, you've called ME an ******* and a licker. Where's your little friend billsfanone with his "attack the post, not the poster" mantra, now? But you know what, I don't even care about your arrogance or attitude, at least half the people here share it.

What I do care about is that you think you can dismiss a well researched idea with a snide little comment or two. In the future, if you can't come up with a counter argument backed with evidence, just stay out of the argument.

Wraith
09-21-2007, 08:44 AM
...and now you're groaning at posts I make that have absolutely nothing to do with and were in response to a QUESTION HHurricane made to me. Mature.

DraftBoy
09-21-2007, 08:48 AM
Alright enough if you two want to continue this personal little spat take it to PM's one more post calling the other out your both banned from the thread. You have pretty much successfully ruined a good analysis by Coach Sal.

mchurchfie
09-21-2007, 08:53 AM
You're still here? Give it a rest. You're right, my telling you to shut up was certainly condescending. It was meant to be. It was in direct response to two arrogant and condescending remarks that you've kindly reposted for me.
:rofl: if you thought those two posts were arrogant and condescending then maybe its time to get back on the meds again, Cybil. I wonder how many new cars your therapy pays for?:crazy: