Here's a Great Analysis on Edwards!

[Wys Guy]

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2007/10/2...en-sunday/5646/

I hope this hasn't been posted. I picked up the link over at TSW.

This is exactly the conclusion that I've come to independently with Edwards and have documented as such. It's spot on.

In a nutshell, Edwards only strength right now appears to be his short game accuracy and completion percentage. While everyone's ballyhooing Edwards' completion percentage, few have picked up on the fact that he's simply not getting the job done in converting 3rd-downs.

As an analogy, it was sort of like Bledsoe throwing for a ton of yards but only down to the red zone when room for him to operate in his element and at his strength disappearted rendering him all but useless down in the red zone, the most important area.

Ditto for Edwards. His inability to convert 3rd-downs is also indicative that our red zone production will not increase w/ him in there barring massive improvement.

Not saying that our RZ production is any worse than w/ JP, it isn't. As a team anyway. Strictly between Edwards and JP I'm guessing that JP was better even if most of his conversions were on deeper throws.

That's why I am ambivalent however about Edwards and why just as JP really needed to hone his short game in order to be successful as a starting NFL QB, so too Edwards needs to hone up his game too w/ accuracy on medium-deep balls and he must learn how to convert on third downs, not merely throw for a 5-yard completion while we need 7 or 8.

Think about it, he could go 100% in a game w/o every converting a 3rd down.

The article has some specifics regarding his ypa/ypc too.

Anyway, for anyone interested in the realities of Edwards and what to look for down the road to find out if he's making progress, read it. It will certainly give you a basis for Evans' take.

I feel very sorry for Lee.

[berndog5]

Everyone keeps talking about the only ame Edwards has is the short game. When I watched him vs. the Ravens he would of had two long TD passed had it not been for the Interference call on Roscoe, and the bobble by Evans. In both cases the long pass was dead on and in Evans case he was gone if he had not bobbled.

[Bulldog]

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2007/10/2...en-sunday/5646/

I hope this hasn't been posted. I picked up the link over at TSW.

This is exactly the conclusion that I've come to independently with Edwards and have documented as such. It's spot on.

In a nutshell, Edwards only strength right now appears to be his short game accuracy and completion percentage. While everyone's ballyhooing Edwards' completion percentage, few have picked up on the fact that he's simply not getting the job done in converting 3rd-downs.

As an analogy, it was sort of like Bledsoe throwing for a ton of yards but only down to the red zone when room for him to operate in his element and at his strength disappearted rendering him all but useless down in the red zone, the most important area.

Ditto for Edwards. His inability to convert 3rd-downs is also indicative that our red zone production will not increase w/ him in there barring massive improvement.

Not saying that our RZ production is any worse than w/ JP, it isn't. As a team anyway. Strictly between Edwards and JP I'm guessing that JP was better even if most of his conversions were on deeper throws.

That's why I am ambivalent however about Edwards and why just as JP really needed to hone his short game in order to be successful as a starting NFL QB, so too Edwards needs to hone up his game too w/ accuracy on medium-deep balls and he must learn how to convert on third downs, not merely throw for a 5-yard completion while we need 7 or 8.

Think about it, he could go 100% in a game w/o every converting a 3rd down.

The article has some specifics regarding his ypa/ypc too.

Anyway, for anyone interested in the realities of Edwards and what to look for down the road to find out if he's making progress, read it. It will certainly give you a basis for Evans' take.

I feel very sorry for Lee.

Wys, what does Buffalo's time of possession look like when Losman is the QB versus when Edwards is? That's a serious question by the way. But it would make sense to me that by completing a high percentage of your passes, as Edwards does, a team should be able to sustain more first downs and control the clock. It seems that this is the case the last few games and is one of the reasons I feel that Buffalo's defense has started to play better. Well, that and the fact that they have played some pretty bad offensive teams lately. Just curious to see if there is any correlation between the two.

[mybills]

I feel sorry for this entire team. Including Edwards.
They play musical QB's to take your mind off the amount of money they put into the OL, they get half the production from the OL (protect the QB/don't stop the run) the former is justifying their QB starter decision, even with his half production, (but the half of the OL that is working, is the only reason Trent is having any production, and they barely address Lynch's half production, which is caused by the half production by the OL. But...let's harp all over Lee Evans and anyone else who speaks up to defend their name due to lack of production mentioned above.

[Wys Guy]

Everyone keeps talking about the only ame Edwards has is the short game. When I watched him vs. the Ravens he would of had two long TD passed had it not been for the Interference call on Roscoe, and the bobble by Evans. In both cases the long pass was dead on and in Evans case he was gone if he had not bobbled.

He had at least two very inaccurate medium-deep throws on Sunday. It's not as if he lofted 20.

It's an issue and it's not as if I'm the only one that has called him on it.

Developing. Stay tuned.

[THATHURMANATOR]

I agree. He certainly needs to improve on medium to deep throws. He seems to have a strong enough arm to make it happen. Lets hope he can.

[Ickybaluky]

A small sample-size, against 3 of the better defensive teams in the NFL (NE, Dal, Bal).

It is a little early to be drawing broad conclusions about the kid. He should play, and he will take his lumps at times being a rookie, but what you want to see is command of the offense and execution improving over time.

[Wys Guy]

I feel sorry for this entire team. Including Edwards.
They play musical QB's to take your mind off the amount of money they put into the OL, they get half the production from the OL (protect the QB/don't stop the run) the former is justifying their QB starter decision, even with his half production, (but the half of the OL that is working, is the only reason Trent is having any production, and they barely address Lynch's half production, which is caused by the half production by the OL. But...let's harp all over Lee Evans and anyone else who speaks up to defend their name due to lack of production mentioned above.

Great points mybills!

Brings back memories of Ruben Brown. The Bills are team-non-grata now in terms of the players.

Indeed, we cannot blame the players and I've opined as much. The fault lays with the cast and crew (Levy, Jauron, personnel dept.) that keeps suggesting that they see things that other coaches and league experts don't see, such as with Nall or Langston Walker or even in giving Dockery that enormous contract that wasn't worth it.

The players are trying hard. That's not the problem. The problem are those orchestrating them and selecting the players. We have far too many players on this team that deserve to be backups only and play like it. But that's what they are, backup caliber players. It's not their fault that someone else selected them to start and overpaid them. Good for them in fact. If the team called me and told me that they'd pay me veteran minimum to play, I'd take it, get my imminent injury from getting pounded, and retire. LOL

But that then brings up another point, if the problem is not the players, then until we correct what it really is, it won't matter now, will it.

That's why we're years, not merely a draft or two, or an offseason or two, away from being good. Not the team (players), but the entire organization needs a complete rebuild.

[mybills]

It seems like a never ending nightmare.

[Wys Guy]

A small sample-size, against 3 of the better defensive teams in the NFL (NE, Dal, Bal).

It is a little early to be drawing broad conclusions about the kid. He should play, and he will take his lumps at times being a rookie, but what you want to see is command of the offense and execution improving over time.

You're right, it is a little too early to be drawing conclusions. But the ones that are are the ones that have already written JP off. IMO it was still a little too early to be drawing final conclusions on JP too. If Edwards gets the same number of starts, then somewhere towards the end of next season his time will be up too. Fair?

As to those Ds, you overrate the D that the Ravens brought to the Ralph on Sunday. They are a lot closer to mediocre than they are to what they were last season right now.

Dallas too, their D is good, but far from top notch. Against NE Edwards played poorly. He also had worse overall team performances vs. the Jets than either Boller or Green. His rating was good largely due to his completion percentage, but again, his 3rd-down completions were light and he nickeled and dimed it. That's not exactly a ringing endorsement thus far either.

Once again, fans are perhaps setting themselves up for disappointment.

Frankly, I'm not sure who's better right now, JP or Edwards. But Edwards got the nod. If the staff now continues to flip-flop their decision, then that would say so little for them. So Edwards should be in there for the long haul.

JP will go away, and I all but promise that he will play better elsewhere.

[Tatonka]

Everyone keeps talking about the only ame Edwards has is the short game. When I watched him vs. the Ravens he would of had two long TD passed had it not been for the Interference call on Roscoe, and the bobble by Evans. In both cases the long pass was dead on and in Evans case he was gone if he had not bobbled.

the pass to both roscoe and evans were underthrown.

evans had to slow down and reach back on the wrong side to catch it.. that was the throw.. evans himself said so.

i cant remember the roscoe pass perfectly, but did he not have to slow down and the db grabbed him? meaning the pass was underthrown there as well?

either way, neither pass was pretty.

[alohabillsfan]

Here is another analysis

2-1
3-0 if we recover a dam on-side kick!

[Wys Guy]

It seems like a never ending nightmare.

It is. It's why the team is seeing "diminishing fan base" too.

I've certainly lost interest. Going to games used to be fun. Now it's a merely a social gathering and if you don't have a big social thing planned out, then what's the point. At least as I see it. Many agree.

If this organization could be summed up in one word, it is "incompetence." Since incompetence breeds more incompetence, thus the nightmare for those of us that have no influence.

It's ironic that fans posting here, watching games on TV, and sitting at bars on Sundays watching this debacle continuously unfold seem to know much more than those that get paid what, how much does Jauron get paid?, do.

[Tatonka]

A small sample-size, against 3 of the better defensive teams in the NFL (NE, Dal, Bal).

It is a little early to be drawing broad conclusions about the kid. He should play, and he will take his lumps at times being a rookie, but what you want to see is command of the offense and execution improving over time.

i was happy with what i saw from losman, as the majority of people here were, last year... so that being said.. losmans sample size is even smaller.. 2 games against 2 defenses that were better than dallas, who held us to 3 points, even with 6 TOs.. the jets defense is s sieve, and he did very little against htem, and baltimore was beat to hell with injuries.

you can make excuses either way for either guy.

[camelcowboy]

I don't get this third down conversion crap its a strength of edwards he moves the chains. Its the only reason why i like him better then losman and the 3 and outs.

[Wys Guy]

Here is another analysis

2-1
3-0 if we recover a dam on-side kick!

You miss the point aloha, we didn't deserve to win any of our games except perhaps the Jets game and even that is debatable as the Jets outplayed us in some respects. They certainly played no worse. Call it comparable in a game that could have gone either way.

In every other game our stats were indicative of playing poorly in contrast, even in the Dallas game.

Yes, we could easily be 4-2 right now, but just as with all of last season, we could easily have been 1-5 or even 0-6 too.

Four or five big plays apart from any continuity in that regard have more or less made two more games close and allowed us to win the Jets game.

So yes, if you're just looking at the score, fine. But if you're evaluating the play of the entire team, you're assessment would have to be one of that we're even lucky to have two wins now. Even the Ravens outplayed us. We didn't force their errors.

I'm convinced that teams routinely look past us now. We have become those teams on our schedule that in the past we just snoff at and call a guaranteed win. That's who we are. So it's natural that we'll surprise a few teams here and there.

But to say that we're playing good football and keeping games close on that merit has absolutely no basis.

[Wys Guy]

Wys, what does Buffalo's time of possession look like when Losman is the QB versus when Edwards is? That's a serious question by the way. But it would make sense to me that by completing a high percentage of your passes, as Edwards does, a team should be able to sustain more first downs and control the clock. It seems that this is the case the last few games and is one of the reasons I feel that Buffalo's defense has started to play better. Well, that and the fact that they have played some pretty bad offensive teams lately. Just curious to see if there is any correlation between the two.

For the most part it's not any better. You can look it up. We've gotten dominated in that in four games. We beat the Jets there. Boy howdy. We also beat the Ravens there.

But both teams had better 3rd-down conversions, more total net yards, great yards-per-play, more 1st-downs, better yards-per-carry rushing. So what's your point?

Edwards' 3rd-down completion percentage ranks among the bottom of the league. You can go 100% like I said; 2 yards, 2 yards, and 5 yards and punt.

Your QB will be 100% at games end and you'll never end up with a 3rd-down conversion or 1st-down. So you have to expand your analysis somewhat.

Your general theory is correct, but the results of those completions matter too. You can't simply connect three-for-three, or two-for-two with a no-gain run, punt, and say that you're controlling the clock.

He's also 1-of-5 on passes thrown beyond 20 yards. That simply must change if he's to even become an average starter in the NFL, meaning that he needs to throw more that far and connect more too.

[camelcowboy]

Enough of this we didn't deserve to win crap. We beat the ravens, We beat the jets and we almost beat the Denver and the cowboys "we didn't deserve to win those games because we blew the lead" A wins a win a loss is a loss there are no moral victories in football.

[Wys Guy]

i was happy with what i saw from losman, as the majority of people here were, last year... so that being said.. losmans sample size is even smaller.. 2 games against 2 defenses that were better than dallas, who held us to 3 points, even with 6 TOs.. the jets defense is s sieve, and he did very little against htem, and baltimore was beat to hell with injuries.

you can make excuses either way for either guy.

Great point, Losman played two of the toughest defenses in the league.

Last year however his game was entirely predicated on the deep game. As I've pointed out often, the only other team like that, worse in fact, was New Orleans. Now you know why neither team is having the success that they had in that way.

When everything you do is predicated on deep plays defenses will adjust and prevent that if you can't run a good short game. While NO McAllister got hurt and they have no options, whereas we are just bumbling at many levels, the results are the same sans a short game of sorts.

Even the Pats have been successful largely off of a short passing game. All that's needed is to be able to prevent opponents from overfocusing on deep plays. We can't do that. Lynch isn't that good, yet.

[mybills]

The moral of football is to earn the win. :;

[acehole]

A small sample-size, against 3 of the better defensive teams in the NFL (NE, Dal, Bal).

It is a little early to be drawing broad conclusions about the kid. He should play, and he will take his lumps at times being a rookie, but what you want to see is command of the offense and execution improving over time.

But I thought he was allready great....and clearly better then JP....NOT!

[Stewie]

Here is another analysis

2-1
3-0 if we recover a dam on-side kick!

the fewest words, yet the most meaningful analysis in this thread.

good job.

[camelcowboy]

OMG losman played the steelers and Broncos poor guy, Come on Edwards played the Cowboys, and Ravens and Patriots its a stupid point.

[acehole]

Here is another analysis

2-1
3-0 if we recover a dam on-side kick!

how about 3 and 0 if he doent throught that horrible pick?

[Stewie]

You miss the point aloha, we didn't deserve to win any of our games except perhaps the Jets game and even that is debatable as the Jets outplayed us in some respects.

I think you're missing the point.

Games are not won or lost based on who wys thinks deserves to win.

Scoreboard.

[Wys Guy]

Enough of this we didn't deserve to win crap. We beat the ravens, We beat the jets and we almost beat the Denver and the cowboys "we didn't deserve to win those games because we blew the lead" A wins a win a loss is a loss there are no moral victories in football.

Look, when you lose to a team that puts up nearly 400 yards in spite of posting 6 TOs, and one that nearly doubles you up on 1st-downs and net yards, has three times as many 3rd-down conversions, and a yard-and-a-half better yards-per-play, then you don't deserve to win that. Ditto for the Denver game which was even worse for us statistically.

And yes, there are moral victories in football. You should know as we've suffered two moreal defeats this year.

[BidsJr]

Wys, what does Buffalo's time of possession look like when Losman is the QB versus when Edwards is? That's a serious question by the way. But it would make sense to me that by completing a high percentage of your passes, as Edwards does, a team should be able to sustain more first downs and control the clock. It seems that this is the case the last few games and is one of the reasons I feel that Buffalo's defense has started to play better. Well, that and the fact that they have played some pretty bad offensive teams lately. Just curious to see if there is any correlation between the two.

Here is the T.O.P info I put together this morning.


In Trents 3 starts Bills won TOP 32-28 on average, and won TOP all three games.

Contrast that with JP's last 18 starts (minus NE this year) going back to the beginning of last year. Bills lost TOP on ave 27-33. The Bills won TOP only 4 out of those 18 games.

Pretty amazing that last year our D was on the field on average 6 min's per game longer than the offense.

[BidsJr]

Look, when you lose to a team that puts up nearly 400 yards in spite of posting 6 TOs, and one that nearly doubles you up on 1st-downs and net yards, has three times as many 3rd-down conversions, and a yard-and-a-half better yards-per-play, then you don't deserve to win that. Ditto for the Denver game which was even worse for us statistically.

And yes, there are moral victories in football. You should know as we've suffered two moreal defeats this year.


:spam:

[Wys Guy]

I think you're missing the point.

Games are not won or lost based on who wys thinks deserves to win.

Scoreboard.

Did you ever see Shanghai Knights w/ Owen Wilson and Jackie Chan? I think that was the one, where it's a western?

Did you see the part where Owen Wilson's character can't hit the broad side of a barn with his gun in that church in that shootout at the end, but then he has one bullet left and for some miracle it goes into the bad guy?

That's us. Owen Wilson's character.

No matter how you slice it, if I lay out those game stats and tell you that it's two generic teams, you're never going to tell me the one that posted Bills-like stats was or should have been the winner. We also aren't going to win enough games to make a difference like that and playoff teams simply don't rely on returns and defensive TDs for 75-90% of their scoring in wins. They take that game or two, or three perhaps if it happens, but they don't suggest that it forms a solid basis for an NFL team.

[gil]

And yes, there are moral victories in football.

I agree with most of what you guys are saying about the poor performances, but I'll take the real kind of victory every day of the week and twice on Sunday over a "moral victory" in a loss.

The team obviously still has to get better, but at least you get the damn W.

[Wys Guy]

:spam:

Why, because you say so.

LOL

Very dictator-like.

And so ends your reasoning and ability to debate. Nice. ;)

[gr8slayer]

He has a LONG WAY to go. He needs to start scoring TD's, you can complete all the passes you want but if you aren't scoring TD's you might as well just concede the game. I expect to see at least two TD's from him this week against a very poor Jet team.

[BidsJr]

Why, because you say so.

LOL

Very dictator-like.

And so ends your reasoning and ability to debate. Nice. ;)



:wtf:

You say the Bills didn't deserve to win because YOU say so.

WYS meet Mirror.

[gr8slayer]

OMG losman played the steelers and Broncos poor guy, Come on Edwards played the Cowboys, and Ravens and Patriots its a stupid point.
How many TD's did HE score in those three games? He's not helping us out by just showing up for the game, we need him to show up on the stat line too.

[gr8slayer]

how about 3 and 0 if he doent throught that horrible pick?
If he doesn't throw that pick against Dallas he's 3-1, see the sig :up:

[gr8slayer]

Enough of this we didn't deserve to win crap. We beat the ravens, We beat the jets and we almost beat the Denver and the cowboys "we didn't deserve to win those games because we blew the lead" A wins a win a loss is a loss there are no moral victories in football.
Good posting, we won, thus we deserved to win. Also, "almost won" doesn't mean a mother ****ing thing.

[MikeInRoch]

Well, first off, that link doesn't appear to be working. So please fix it, or post a pointer to it.

Second off, the notion that Edwards is worse than JP has been at picking up third downs is idiotic.

2006 overall third down conversions: 32%
2007 under JP: 8/25 = 32%
2007 under KE: 15/46 = 33%

It doesn't look like there is much of a difference to me...

[alohabillsfan]

Just to appese the long posters (you know who you are) here we go...

(Q) When did the Bills employ the creep defense?

(A) Against the Cowboys.

(Q) Who came up with that plan?

(A) The coaching staff.

(Q) What did that defense do?

(A) Created 6 turnovers but allowed 400 yards.

(Q) What coaching staff would take giving up 400 yards but get 6 turnovers?

(A) All of them!

[gr8slayer]

Just to appese the long posters (you know who you are) here we go...

(Q) When did the Bills employ the creep defense?

(A) Against the Cowboys.

(Q) Who came up with that plan?

(A) The coaching staff.

(Q) What did that defense do?

(A) Created 6 turnovers but allowed 400 yards.

(Q) What coaching staff would take giving up 400 yards but get 6 turnovers?

(A) All of them!
Do you know how many points the OFFENSE scored on those turn-overs? Less than the defense.

[Bulldog]

how about 3 and 0 if he doent throught that horrible pick?

How about 3 and 0 if Buffalo learns how to recover a god damn on sides kick. Or if we have a coach who is smart enough to kick the god damn FG and go up 11 in that game. I could go on for days with the number of coaching errors in that game that had nothing to do with Edwards.

[gr8slayer]

Well, first off, that link doesn't appear to be working. So please fix it, or post a pointer to it.

Second off, the notion that Edwards is worse than JP has been at picking up third downs is idiotic.

2006 overall third down conversions: 32%
2007 under JP: 8/25 = 32%
2007 under KE: 15/46 = 33%

It doesn't look like there is much of a difference to me...
Who's saying that Edwards is worse than Losman? The only thing he can't do that Losman can is get away from pressure and launch the rock fifty yards down field with accuracy. Other than that he's been better....

[hurls]

Do you know how many points the OFFENSE scored on those turn-overs? Less than the defense.

Exactly. It's WHAT YOU DO WITH THE TURNOVER that matters. Not how many. It also doesn't help if you're a plus-4 or 5, but one of your TO's is in your own Red Zone. That's where trent and Co. need to improve. Luckily the Ravens blow on offense.

[Wys Guy]

:wtf:

You say the Bills didn't deserve to win because YOU say so.

WYS meet Mirror.

Hey, I can't help it if you are blind or can't read.

Not because I said so, rather for very clearly laid out reasons.

But hey, let me ask you, suppose I gave you the following stat line and told you that this would be from a game on Sunday and asked you to tell me which team won and by how much, what would your answer be?

<TABLE borderColor=#0d1801 cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width=261 border=1><TBODY><TR><TD width="49%" height=16>
</TD><TD width="26%" height=16>
X
</TD><TD width="26%" height=16>
Y
</TD></TR><TR><TD width="49%" height=16>
1st Downs
</TD><TD width="26%" height=16>
23
</TD><TD width="26%" height=16>
13
</TD></TR><TR><TD width="49%" height=16>
Net Yards
</TD><TD width="26%" height=16>
470
</TD><TD width="26%" height=16>
184
</TD></TR><TR><TD width="49%" height=16>
Rush Yards
</TD><TD width="26%" height=16>
171
</TD><TD width="26%" height=16>
112
</TD></TR><TR><TD width="49%" height=16>
Yards-per-Carry
</TD><TD width="26%" height=16>
5.3
</TD><TD width="26%" height=16>
4.3
</TD></TR><TR><TD width="49%" height=16>
Time-of-Possession
</TD><TD width="26%" height=16>
33:12
</TD><TD width="26%" height=16>
26:48
</TD></TR><TR><TD width="49%" height=16>
Net Passing Yards
</TD><TD width="26%" height=16>
299
</TD><TD width="26%" height=16>
72
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

So there you have it as an example, which team, X or Y, would you say will win and by how much on Sunday coming up?

Besides, what's your problem, are we discussing football or going off on a personal bender?

[gr8slayer]

How about 3 and 0 if Buffalo learns how to recover a god damn on sides kick. Or if we have a coach who is smart enough to kick the god damn FG and go up 11 in that game. I could go on for days with the number of coaching errors in that game that had nothing to do with Edwards.
Now you sound like a "licker." Fact is, Edwards hasn't thrown for a TD in three strait games, four games total out of five this season. That is not acceptable and isn't going to cut it. The special teams scored a total of ten points against the Cowboys, the Offense scored a total of zero points against the Cowboys. The defense scored a total of 14 points against the Cowboys, the offense scored a total of zero. When your offense scores zero points it's on the QB. ESPECIALLY when the defense gets six freaking turn-overs.

[gr8slayer]

Exactly. It's WHAT YOU DO WITH THE TURNOVER that matters. Not how many. It also doesn't help if you're a plus-4 or 5, but one of your TO's is in your own Red Zone. That's where trent and Co. need to improve. Luckily the Ravens blow on offense.
Holy ****! Hurls............ there's a name I haven't seen in a while. How are you doing hillbilly?

[camelcowboy]

How many TD's did HE score in those three games? He's not helping us out by just showing up for the game, we need him to show up on the stat line too. The same amount losman scored in his two

[hurls]

Holy ****! Hurls............ there's a name I haven't seen in a while. How are you doing hillbilly?

Very well, thanks for asking, thought you weren't speaking to me. Anyways, always nice to see a fellow Dallas fan. How have you been? Still an enormously huge dude that would crush a normal person? :D

[justasportsfan]

While we hoped JP would improve his short passes, now we're hoping Edwards can improve his deep ball?

Haha! I'm starting to post like wys. Yo wys, how much for a gallon of medium wing sauce?

[gr8slayer]

How have you been?
Way too busy, school is killing me :(


Anyways, always nice to see a fellow Dallas fan.Oh come on Hurls, you know the Cowboys are always number two to the Bills.


Still an enormously huge dude that would crush a normal person? Not for long! The football career is almost done for :( and afterwards I will quit power-lifting and start dropping some pounds!

When did you leave; "the other place?"

[gr8slayer]

While we hoped JP would improve his short passes, now we're hoping Edwards can improve his deep ball?

Haha! I'm starting to post like wys. Yo wys, how much for a gallon of medium wing sauce?
Almost feels like we're never going to get it right :(

[BidsJr]

Hey, I can't help it if you are blind or can't read.

Not because I said so, rather for very clearly laid out reasons.

But hey, let me ask you, suppose I gave you the following stat line and told you that this would be from a game on Sunday and asked you to tell me which team won and by how much, what would your answer be?

<TABLE borderColor=#0d1801 cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width=261 border=1><TBODY><TR><TD width="49%" height=16>
</TD><TD width="26%" height=16>
X
</TD><TD width="26%" height=16>
Y
</TD></TR><TR><TD width="49%" height=16>
1st Downs
</TD><TD width="26%" height=16>
23
</TD><TD width="26%" height=16>
13
</TD></TR><TR><TD width="49%" height=16>
Net Yards
</TD><TD width="26%" height=16>
470
</TD><TD width="26%" height=16>
184
</TD></TR><TR><TD width="49%" height=16>
Rush Yards
</TD><TD width="26%" height=16>
171
</TD><TD width="26%" height=16>
112
</TD></TR><TR><TD width="49%" height=16>
Yards-per-Carry
</TD><TD width="26%" height=16>
5.3
</TD><TD width="26%" height=16>
4.3
</TD></TR><TR><TD width="49%" height=16>
Time-of-Possession
</TD><TD width="26%" height=16>
33:12
</TD><TD width="26%" height=16>
26:48
</TD></TR><TR><TD width="49%" height=16>
Net Passing Yards
</TD><TD width="26%" height=16>
299
</TD><TD width="26%" height=16>
72
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

So there you have it as an example, which team, X or Y, would you say will win and by how much on Sunday coming up?

Besides, what's your problem, are we discussing football or going off on a personal bender?


I would say the team with the most points won the game.


Sorry but this pulling random stats out of the air to solidify a crappy argument doesn't cut it.

"The Bills didn't deserve to win the game." Then backing it up with random stats is just assinine IMHO.

Just to further your typical Marv, Ralph and Dick sucks agenda.

[BidsJr]

While we hoped JP would improve his short passes, now we're hoping Edwards can improve his deep ball?

Haha! I'm starting to post like wys. Yo wys, how much for a gallon of medium wing sauce?


To take this a step further, JP's short passes were supposed to be an improvement over Frankendrew's.

[hurls]

When did you leave; "the other place?"


When I met the d-bag owner. I got a PM for ya.

[mybills]

When I met the d-bag owner.
:roflmao:

[gr8slayer]

When I met the d-bag owner. I got a PM for ya.
I'll be looking for it :up:

[jdbillsfan]

I actually thought Trent has done a good job of converting 3rd downs and sustaining drives. Especially compared to JP. There seemed to be a lot of 3 and outs with JP. It was more of an all or nothing type thing.

I don't have stats though, so I could be wrong. That is just the way it has seemed.

As far as JP's development, he didn't seem to get much better since last year. He looked bad in preseason and looked bad against the Broncos and Steelers. The Broncos D really isn't that great this year. They have good corners, but JP was still doing dumb things.

I was ready to make the switch after the first game of the season. Doesn't everyone remember how bad he looked? I know the play calling wasn't good, but he is a veteran that should be showing more signs of improvement.

I think this whole deep ball controversy is kind of a joke. JP can throw the ball farther? Kyle Boller can throw far from his knees? Big deal.

I'm not even convinced Trent can't throw a good deep ball. I think its more about timing and getting on the same page with everyone.

JP missed a wide open Lee Evans in the first game.

[justasportsfan]

To take this a step further, JP's short passes were supposed to be an improvement over Frankendrew's.
they were.

Problem is, when JP is in there, they make Evans go deep and they attempt to make JP go deep.

When Trent was in there they made Evans go short against the jets which is why he caught the balls.

Against Dallas they made Evans play deep and Trent was useless in the deep ball.

Against the Ravens , Evans went both short and deep but the problem is, 154 yards and the ball waasn't spread out to everybody. It's a good thing our D played well.

[djjimkelly]

For the most part it's not any better. You can look it up. We've gotten dominated in that in four games. We beat the Jets there. Boy howdy. We also beat the Ravens there.

But both teams had better 3rd-down conversions, more total net yards, great yards-per-play, more 1st-downs, better yards-per-carry rushing. So what's your point?

Edwards' 3rd-down completion percentage ranks among the bottom of the league. You can go 100% like I said; 2 yards, 2 yards, and 5 yards and punt.

Your QB will be 100% at games end and you'll never end up with a 3rd-down conversion or 1st-down. So you have to expand your analysis somewhat.

Your general theory is correct, but the results of those completions matter too. You can't simply connect three-for-three, or two-for-two with a no-gain run, punt, and say that you're controlling the clock.

He's also 1-of-5 on passes thrown beyond 20 yards. That simply must change if he's to even become an average starter in the NFL, meaning that he needs to throw more that far and connect more too.


wys dont give facts it will only cloud things more. this whole decision from the bye week on is curious but so be it. most of the moves we have made in last 4-5 years have been curious to me. i just think to myself in 2 years how many of the donahoe regime will be left. im pretty sure it will only be 4-5 starting players in the next 2 years.

[Bulldog]

Now you sound like a "licker." Fact is, Edwards hasn't thrown for a TD in three strait games, four games total out of five this season. That is not acceptable and isn't going to cut it. The special teams scored a total of ten points against the Cowboys, the Offense scored a total of zero points against the Cowboys. The defense scored a total of 14 points against the Cowboys, the offense scored a total of zero. When your offense scores zero points it's on the QB. ESPECIALLY when the defense gets six freaking turn-overs.

Far from it. Edwards has a long way to go before he is considered a quality QB. But don't lay the blame at the feet of a rookie QB when the coaching staff cost Buffalo that game. Put it this way, the coaching staff did more harm to the Bills that day than Edwards did on that interception.

[gr8slayer]

Far from it. Edwards has a long way to go before he is considered a quality QB. But don't lay the blame at the feet of a rookie QB when the coaching staff cost Buffalo that game. Put it this way, the coaching staff did more harm to the Bills that day than Edwards did on that interception.
So how can you say this for Edwards but not for Losman, double standards are abundant lately.

At least you realize that he's no Montana yet, reading some of these posts you'd thing that he'd already won five rings.

[acehole]

How about 3 and 0 if Buffalo learns how to recover a god damn on sides kick. Or if we have a coach who is smart enough to kick the god damn FG and go up 11 in that game. I could go on for days with the number of coaching errors in that game that had nothing to do with Edwards.

I agree and do you agree that this was the same coaching staff JP had the first games? That blew the Denver game? Sincerly asking this question to you.

[Wys Guy]

While we hoped JP would improve his short passes, now we're hoping Edwards can improve his deep ball?

Haha! I'm starting to post like wys. Yo wys, how much for a gallon of medium wing sauce?

If you're serious I'll give you a discount off of the retail. I hope to be up there within a week or two. Pending.

The owner of South Gate Lanes contacted me to use our sauces. I also have an in for free tix, parking, and tailgate to a good party for either the Cincy or NE games. The only way I'd go to a game this year. :D

Anyway, shoot me a note if you're seriously interested.

[Wys Guy]

wys dont give facts it will only cloud things more. this whole decision from the bye week on is curious but so be it. most of the moves we have made in last 4-5 years have been curious to me. i just think to myself in 2 years how many of the donahoe regime will be left. im pretty sure it will only be 4-5 starting players in the next 2 years.

Yeah, I hear ya.

In fact, this team IMO is the "Spinal Tap" version of an NFL team.

It's somewhere between a black comedy, a satire, and a farce.

[Wys Guy]

Well, first off, that link doesn't appear to be working. So please fix it, or post a pointer to it.

Second off, the notion that Edwards is worse than JP has been at picking up third downs is idiotic.

2006 overall third down conversions: 32%
2007 under JP: 8/25 = 32%
2007 under KE: 15/46 = 33%

It doesn't look like there is much of a difference to me...

First of all I said that Edwards was struggling with 3rd downs, I don't recall saying that JP was better this year.

Where did you get those stats?

[jmb1099]

Rookie QB starting in the NFL...next

[Bulldog]

I agree and do you agree that this was the same coaching staff JP had the first games? That blew the Denver game? Sincerly asking this question to you.

Yes I agree. Despite what some think, I don't hate Losman. I actually think that this team has some talent, but it will continue to be wasted with this coaching staff. I'm not saying Buffalo is the most talented team in the league, far from it, but I would love to see what this team can do with some honest to god decent coaching. I know right now that they would have two more wins than they do currently.

[Wys Guy]

Well, first off, that link doesn't appear to be working. So please fix it, or post a pointer to it.

Second off, the notion that Edwards is worse than JP has been at picking up third downs is idiotic.

2006 overall third down conversions: 32%
2007 under JP: 8/25 = 32%
2007 under KE: 15/46 = 33%

It doesn't look like there is much of a difference to me...

As well Mike, 5 of Edwards 11 3rd-down-completions were vs. the Jets. He's been pretty pathetic otherwise.

IDK what Losman's 3rd-down conv. % was last season, but given that fact that Edwards' passes are all of the high-percentage variety and he doesn't go deep nearly as much as JP did, I'd say that he really needs to improve whatever was on the table if his "style" is going to be productive. Not just here, but anywhere down the road too.

[camelcowboy]

As well Mike, 5 of Edwards 11 3rd-down-completions were vs. the Jets. He's been pretty pathetic otherwise.

IDK what Losman's 3rd-down conv. % was last season, but given that fact that Edwards' passes are all of the high-percentage variety and he doesn't go deep nearly as much as JP did, I'd say that he really needs to improve whatever was on the table if his "style" is going to be productive. Not just here, but anywhere down the road too. He moves the chains losman doesnt.

[Wys Guy]

Rookie QB starting in the NFL...next

That's pretty much it.

JP was fairly early in his career as well. The coaching staff, per CoachSal's post, could have hedged themselves a little and given themselves some wiggle room there.

Of course that actually entails some forethought and intelligence, so scratch that. :D

[jmb1099]

Edwards has far from arrived and I would have liked to see Losman with another game under his belt, but I can't control what I can't control. However, lets keep things in perspective, Edwards in a bona fide rookie who seems to play with more poise than possible. Losman panics and he didn't exactly light the world on fire this year. I was one of the guys who believed he could, he still might, but not here.

[Philagape]

I actually thought Trent has done a good job of converting 3rd downs and sustaining drives. Especially compared to JP. There seemed to be a lot of 3 and outs with JP. It was more of an all or nothing type thing.

I don't have stats though, so I could be wrong. That is just the way it has seemed.


You're right.
Here are Edwards' third down stats this year:
32 attempts
11 completions for first down
34.3 percent

Losman: 17 attempts, 5 first downs, 29.4 percent

For those who want to use this year's quality of opponent excuse (even though Denver is way overrated), here are JP's third-down numbers from last year:
124 attempts
40 completions for first down
32.2 percent

So Edwards is a slight improvement in third-down conversions even over last year.

source: CBS Sportsline

[TacklingDummy]

Well, first off, that link doesn't appear to be working. So please fix it, or post a pointer to it.

Second off, the notion that Edwards is worse than JP has been at picking up third downs is idiotic.

2006 overall third down conversions: 32%
2007 under JP: 8/25 = 32%
2007 under KE: 15/46 = 33%

It doesn't look like there is much of a difference to me...

Please stop using facts.

[TacklingDummy]

Here is the T.O.P info I put together this morning.


In Trents 3 starts Bills won TOP 32-28 on average, and won TOP all three games.

Contrast that with JP's last 18 starts (minus NE this year) going back to the beginning of last year. Bills lost TOP on ave 27-33. The Bills won TOP only 4 out of those 18 games.

Pretty amazing that last year our D was on the field on average 6 min's per game longer than the offense.

Don't expect a reply.

Please stop using facts.

[TacklingDummy]

He moves the chains losman doesnt.

Again, stop using facts. Thanks.

[justasportsfan]

You're right.
Here are Edwards' third down stats this year:
32 attempts
11 completions for first down
34.3 percent

Losman: 17 attempts, 5 first downs, 29.4 percent

For those who want to use this year's quality of opponent excuse (even though Denver is way overrated), here are JP's third-down numbers from last year:
124 attempts
40 completions for first down
32.2 percent

So Edwards is a slight improvement in third-down conversions even over last year.

source: CBS Sportslineany chance you could research JP's 3rd down conversion in the 2nd half of the season? I'd would be interesting to see what is is.


I am also interested in finding out what the average yards they both had to contend with on 3rd downs.

[camelcowboy]

Look, when you lose to a team that puts up nearly 400 yards in spite of posting 6 TOs, and one that nearly doubles you up on 1st-downs and net yards, has three times as many 3rd-down conversions, and a yard-and-a-half better yards-per-play, then you don't deserve to win that. Ditto for the Denver game which was even worse for us statistically.

And yes, there are moral victories in football. You should know as we've suffered two moreal defeats this year.Stats mean crap so many different factors weigh into them that i can't take your point seriously. Move on

[camelcowboy]

The important stat is how many drive has edwards had over 3 plays. If you pick up a first down on First or second down, third down stats don't mean anything. You keep the ball on the field you rest the defense we win games which our record under edwards indicate.

[justasportsfan]

Stats mean crap so many different factors weigh into them that i can't take your point seriously. Move on
TDUMMY disagrees with you.

[TacklingDummy]

The important stat is how many drive has edwards had over 3 plays. If you pick up a first down on First or second down, third down stats don't mean anything. You keep the ball on the field you rest the defense we win games which our record under edwards indicate.

Losman had 191 drives last year. 109 of them were for 4 plays or less.

First 8 games: 95 drives, 53 for 4 plays or less.

Last 8 games: 96 drives, 56 for 4 plays or less.

[camelcowboy]

Losman had 191 drives last year. 109 of them were for 4 plays or less.

First 8 games: 95 drives, 53 for 4 plays or less.

Last 8 games: 96 drives, 56 for 4 plays or less. Some of those 4 play or less times could be quick scoring plays, but how about this year under Edwards?

[mybills]

It doesn't look like there is much of a difference to me...
Bingo!
It's gonna be a long year. :ill:

[Philagape]

any chance you could research JP's 3rd down conversion in the 2nd half of the season? I'd would be interesting to see what is is.


I am also interested in finding out what the average yards they both had to contend with on 3rd downs.

The page I saw did splits by down and by month, but not down AND month.
Here are the percentage of JP's completions that were for first downs by month (on every down):
September 54.2
October 45.9
November 42.9
December 54.2

According to ESPN, here are JP's 2006 stats for third-down by distance. It doesn't give the conversion rate, but I'll list yards per attempt to give a rough idea:
0-2 yards to go: 7-18, 3.06 YPA (Trent: 2-2, 18.00)
3-7 yards: 27-43, 10.00 YPA (Trent: 7-17, 1.82)
8-10 yards: 14-35, 5.23 YPA (Trent: 6-8, 8.75)
11-plus yards: 22-28, 10.25 YPA (Trent: 2-5, 3.20)

[Wys Guy]

Stats mean crap so many different factors weigh into them that i can't take your point seriously. Move on

LOL OK

Just to illustrate your point however, stats mean crap and there are so many different factors to weigh into them that you can't take an entire analysis as seriously as you take your single fact of choice as pulled from your colon before sticking it atop your battle standard and declaring victory, eh.

You provide good amusement. ;)

[Ickybaluky]

i was happy with what i saw from losman, as the majority of people here were, last year... so that being said.. losmans sample size is even smaller..

Small sampling size for Losman? Are you nuts? The guy is in his 4th season!

Losman has had over 700 attempts in the NFL. He has shown what he is, which is a player who can flash at times but lacks consistency. He can throw the ball downfield at times, but hesitates when his first read in taken away.

Losman isn't terrible, but he isn't the answer either. You need consistency from your starting QB, and Losman won't deliver that.

He is another Jeff Blake.

[Wys Guy]

.Haha! I'm starting to post like wys.

Yeah, most people do eventually. It just takes some longer than others.

:D

I missed the opportunity earlier.

Nothin' like poking a stick into a hornet's nest, eh!

[camelcowboy]

LOL OK

Just to illustrate your point however, stats mean crap and there are so many different factors to weigh into them that you can't take an entire analysis as seriously as you take your single fact of choice as pulled from your colon before sticking it atop your battle standard and declaring victory, eh.

You provide good amusement. ;) A team could throw the ball 400 yards because they are playing behind all game. A team can hold a running back to a couple yards a carry all game and he could break a 40 yard run for a touchdown. We had 6 turnovers against Romo, but we lost so those stats are useless in the end all that matters is the score. Stats can be manipulated wins are all that matter.

[Stewie]

Did you ever see Shanghai Knights w/ Owen Wilson and Jackie Chan? I think that was the one, where it's a western?

Did you see the part where Owen Wilson's character can't hit the broad side of a barn with his gun in that church in that shootout at the end, but then he has one bullet left and for some miracle it goes into the bad guy?

That's us. Owen Wilson's character.

No matter how you slice it, if I lay out those game stats and tell you that it's two generic teams, you're never going to tell me the one that posted Bills-like stats was or should have been the winner. We also aren't going to win enough games to make a difference like that and playoff teams simply don't rely on returns and defensive TDs for 75-90% of their scoring in wins. They take that game or two, or three perhaps if it happens, but they don't suggest that it forms a solid basis for an NFL team.

You just don't get it, do you?

If you lay out relevant stats for me, I will guess the correct winner every single time.

It will be the team that scored more than the other.

If you don't give me the points stat, you didn't tell me one single relevant thing that I care about.

I couldn't care less if we end every game with -500 yards offense. I want the W.

[Wys Guy]

You just don't get it, do you?

If you lay out relevant stats for me, I will guess the correct winner every single time.

It will be the team that scored more than the other.

If you don't give me the points stat, you didn't tell me one single relevant thing that I care about.

I couldn't care less if we end every game with -500 yards offense. I want the W.

Oh, I get it alright.

;)

[Voltron]

Everyone keeps talking about the only ame Edwards has is the short game. When I watched him vs. the Ravens he would of had two long TD passed had it not been for the Interference call on Roscoe, and the bobble by Evans. In both cases the long pass was dead on and in Evans case he was gone if he had not bobbled.
To be fair that pass to evens was behind him and he had to change speed just to get under it. That was an under thrown ball. Edwards even came out and said that was his fault.

[Voltron]

A team could throw the ball 400 yards because they are playing behind all game. A team can hold a running back to a couple yards a carry all game and he could break a 40 yard run for a touchdown. We had 6 turnovers against Romo, but we lost so those stats are useless in the end all that matters is the score. Stats can be manipulated wins are all that matter. What is that saying?

There are lies, Damn lies, and statistics?

:scratch:

[Tatonka]

OMG losman played the steelers and Broncos poor guy, Come on Edwards played the Cowboys, and Ravens and Patriots its a stupid point.

losman threw one pick against those two defenses..

trent threw picks against all 4 teams he has played.. produced no better.. other than completion percentage that didnt result in points anyway. he sucked against the cowboys, pats, and ravens.. so your right.. it is a moot point.

[Voltron]

Yeah, most people do eventually. It just takes some longer than others.

:D

I missed the opportunity earlier.

Nothin' like poking a stick into a hornet's nest, eh!
I didn't know if it was really you or not! Just didn't know you had come back from lurking :D

[justasportsfan]

Small sampling size for Losman? Are you nuts? The guy is in his 4th season!

Losman has had over 700 attempts in the NFL. He has shown what he is, which is a player who can flash at times but lacks consistency. He can throw the ball downfield at times, but hesitates when his first read in taken away.

Losman isn't terrible, but he isn't the answer either. You need consistency from your starting QB, and Losman won't deliver that.

He is another Jeff Blake. You honestly think Brady would be the same qb he is today if he was in JP's shoes? I'd like to see Brady play under Moolarkey. That's goes for every qb that was in JPs class. So far no one disagrees that one would've been better than JP under the same circumstances. Do you disagree?

[camelcowboy]

losman threw one pick against those two defenses..

trent threw picks against all 4 teams he has played.. produced no better.. other than completion percentage that didnt result in points anyway. he sucked against the cowboys, pats, and ravens.. so your right.. it is a moot point. Losman sucked against the broncos and steelers so yeah its moot, He's had no touchdown passes and led the offense to a grand total of 10 points so yeah its such a big mistake of the bills not taking advantage of that kind of production.

[Voltron]

Small sampling size for Losman? Are you nuts? The guy is in his 4th season!

Losman has had over 700 attempts in the NFL. He has shown what he is, which is a player who can flash at times but lacks consistency. He can throw the ball downfield at times, but hesitates when his first read in taken away.

Losman isn't terrible, but he isn't the answer either. You need consistency from your starting QB, and Losman won't deliver that.

He is another Jeff Blake.
NE39 must be using a pneumatic nailer because he hit the head of that nail 100%

[Ickybaluky]

You honestly think Brady would be the same qb he is today if he was in JP's shoes? I'd like to see Brady play under Moolarkey. That's goes for every qb that was in JPs class. So far no one disagrees that one would've been better than JP under the same circumstances. Do you disagree?

Blaming the coaches seems to be a habit for you. It reminds me of Red Sox fans.

I don't think Brady would be as good as he is now, but he would be a lot better and more consistent than Losman.

Ultimately, a player is what he is, shifting the blame elsewhere isn't the answer.

[camelcowboy]

Oh, I get it alright.

;):db:

[Tatonka]

He moves the chains losman doesnt.

bro.. that is the point.. you feel like he is moving the chains because he is connecting 2 yard passes to wrs.. but the facts state that he is converting the same as losman was in the first two games.. and jp was playing against much tougher defenses. and without the jets game where he was 5/11 in 3rd downs, his third down conversions would be much worse than jps.

[camelcowboy]

bro.. that is the point.. you feel like he is moving the chains because he is connecting 2 yard passes to wrs.. but the facts state that he is converting the same as losman was in the first two games.. and jp was playing against much tougher defenses. and without the jets game where he was 5/11 in 3rd downs, his third down conversions would be much worse than jps. He doing better on first and second down he does move the chains and keeps possesion of the ball. Thats fact not my feeling.

[justasportsfan]

Blaming the coaches seems to be a habit for you. ..
You might as well point the fingers to the rest of the bills fans because they too think Moolarkey was an idiot. While you're at it tell the fins the same thing.

NE was nothing until BB came along. Out of all the fanbase in in the NFL, Pats fans should know that coaches do make a difference.



Ultimately, a player is what he is, shifting the blame elsewhere isn't the answer.So Morris playing under BB has nothing to do with his success prior to the injury? Cmon. You're smarter than that. You can't tell me that Morris was a crappy player while with the bills and fins and then all of a sudden gained ability because he just drank NE water.

So Willis moving to the ravens and becoming the 2nd ranked rb has nothing to do with coaching? You mean coaches have nothing to do with a players performance? The fact that you stated Brady wouldn't be as good means coaching is a factor.



but he would be a lot better and more consistent than Losman..

I never said he wouldn't be. :rolleyes:

[THATHURMANATOR]

The thing I don't get is how some are acting like Edwards is lighting things up. He honestly is playing exactly like Holcomb. He also cost us the Dallas game with a horrible INT and almost the same in the Baltimore game. I am behind the guy as long as he is starting and playing and because he seems to have potential to get a lot better, but lets not annoint him the next Tom Brady just because he is calm out there. He needs to earn it.

[Ickybaluky]

So Morris playing under BB has nothing to do with his success prior to the injury? Cmon. You're smarter than that. You can't tell me that Morris was a crappy player while with the bills and fins and then all of a sudden gained ability because he just drank NE water.

Morris is the same player, IMO. It helps him playing behind the NE OL and having their passing game take pressure off him, but he is the same guy. He was productive in Miami. I know he tore up the Pats in Miami a year ago.


So Willis moving to the ravens and becoming the 2nd ranked rb has nothing to do with coaching? You mean coaches have nothing to do with a players performance?

I never said coaches weren't a factor, but I think Willis is the same player as in Buffalo. You seem to forget he was a pretty good player his first couple years starting. Last year his numbers were down because his head wasn't into it and his OL wasn't very good.

Ultimately, Losman is responsible for his performance. If he is hesitating getting rid of the ball, that is on him. If he holds the ball trying to go downfield instead of hitting his outlet, that is on him. If he doesn't recognize the blitz pre-snap and adjust, that is on him. The ball is in his hand.

[justasportsfan]

Morris is the same player, IMO. It helps him playing behind the NE OL and having their passing game take pressure off him, but he is the same guy. He was productive in Miami. I know he tore up the Pats in Miami a year ago.



I never said coaches weren't a factor, but I think Willis is the same player as in Buffalo. You seem to forget he was a pretty good player his first couple years starting. Last year his numbers were down because his head wasn't into it and his OL wasn't very good.

Ultimately, Losman is responsible for his performance. If he is hesitating getting rid of the ball, that is on him. If he holds the ball trying to go downfield instead of hitting his outlet, that is on him. If he doesn't recognize the blitz pre-snap and adjust, that is on him. The ball is in his hand.
well you kinda implied that coaches didn't mean anything wjhen you said I used the coaches as excuses.. If you look at JP's career it's always been the coaches. Even as we speak bills fans thenselves are questioning the coaches.

Morris has never played as well as he did. OL/ Well who puts that Ol together? The coaches.

Who's job is it to put a players head into the game and again build an OL. Coaches.


Jp is damned if he does damned if he doesn't.

If he listens to the coaches who put him in a situation to lose , he's screwed. If he doesn't listen to the coaches and runs his own plays, we all know what happened to Fltuie and Moulds.

[mybills]

The thing I don't get is how some are acting like Edwards is lighting things up. He honestly is playing exactly like Holcomb. He also cost us the Dallas game with a horrible INT and almost the same in the Baltimore game. I am behind the guy as long as he is starting and playing and because he seems to have potential to get a lot better, but lets not annoint him the next Tom Brady just because he is calm out there. He needs to earn it.
Exactly.
:posrep:

[Ingtar33]

2007 3rd down conversions:
Losman: 8-25
Edwards: 15-46

3rd Down Percentage:
Buffalo 2006: 31.7 (Losman) *31st in the league
Buffalo 2007: 32.0 (Losman) *29th in the League
Buffalo 2007: 32.6 (Edwards) *29th in the League

Percentage of Drives ending in 3&Out: 2007
Losman: 36.8%
Edwards: 25.0%

Percentages of Drives ending in 3&Out: 2006
Losman: 29.8% (57-191)

2007 Red Zone Numbers
Losman 2 times in the red zone 0 FG 1 TDs (.500 scoring, .500 TD)
Edwards 9 times in the red zone 4 FG 4 TDs (.888 scoring, .444 TD)

2006 Red Zone Numbers
Losman 35 times in the red zone 16 FGs 15 TDs (.886 scoring, .429 TD)


*I defined 3&Out as being any drive that had no first downs, no turnovers, no points, and did not end on a half. the same standard was applied to both Quarterbacks

[Tatonka]

so edwards has 3 and outs .6 % more than losman.. impressive.

[Ingtar33]

so edwards has 3 and outs .6 % more than losman.. impressive.


no. you read it backwards. that's the conversion percentage on 3rd down. both of them are statistically identical.

The big difference is that Edwards has 3&Outs on 1/4 of his drives, while Losman was hitting them at a just about a 1/3 clip his whole career.

--EDIT--

I just edited it, in hopes its clearer

[Tatonka]

so edwards is worse on 3rd down conversions, according to your numbers right?

[Tatonka]

gotcha..

well fortunately, edwards has put up a ton of points to go with those impressive numbers.

[Ingtar33]

2007 Red Zone Numbers
Losman 2 times in the red zone 0 FG 1 TDs (.500 scoring, .500 TD)
Edwards 9 times in the red zone 4 FG 4 TDs (.888 scoring, .444 TD)

2006 Red Zone Numbers
Losman 35 times in the red zone 16 FGs 15 TDs (.886 scoring, .429 TD)


so edwards is worse on 3rd down conversions, according to your numbers right?

no, better... by .6

and they aren't my numbers, those numbers are found on ESPN.com

the redzone numbers were on PFW

[Mitchy moo]

no, better... by .6

and they aren't my numbers, those numbers are found on ESPN.com

Close either way.

[camelcowboy]

2007 Red Zone Numbers
Losman 2 times in the red zone 0 FG 1 TDs (.500 scoring, .500 TD)
Edwards 9 times in the red zone 4 FG 4 TDs (.888 scoring, .444 TD)

2006 Red Zone Numbers
Losman 35 times in the red zone 16 FGs 15 TDs (.886 scoring, .429 TD) Thank god for lynch or we'd have nothing.

[Ingtar33]

gotcha..

well fortunately, edwards has put up a ton of points to go with those impressive numbers.


no he isn't. Part of why i included Losman's numbers from last year is for a better basis of comparison.

My basic point is we're still in a pee-ing contest with both sides spraying their shoes. Both are mediocre.

[ArcticWildMan]

Considering that Edwards is a rookie and has only started 3 games (played in 4) and his numbers are the equal of a 4th year QB that has started 1.5 seasons, things like promising (especially if you compare TE to other rookie QB numbers).

Give the kid some time and he will only get better.

[ArcticWildMan]

Ingtar, could you dig up numbers on some established QB's (superstars like Manning and avg QB's as well) that compares them in their first 4 games to TE?

I'd be interested to see how he compares.

[Mitchy moo]

Considering that Edwards is a rookie and has only started 3 games (played in 4) and his numbers are the equal of a 4th year QB that has started 1.5 seasons, things like promising (especially if you compare TE to other rookie QB numbers).

Give the kid some time and he will only get better.
Common sense.

[Tatonka]

Considering that Edwards is a rookie and has only started 3 games (played in 4) and his numbers are the equal of a 4th year QB start has started 1.5 seasons, things like promising (especially if you compare TE to other rookie QB numbers).

Give the kid some time and he will only get better.

hopefully he goes to the same trainer that made tom brady's arm strong.. and not the one that chad pennington goes to, which is what it looks like now.

[ArcticWildMan]

hopefully he goes to the same trainer that made tom brady's arm strong.. and not the one that chad pennington goes to, which is what it looks like now.

Well, we've had three QB's in a row that had so called "canons" for arms (Johnson, Bledsoe, and Losman) and we see how well that worked out. Just because TE doesn't throw an 80 MPH bullet doesn't mean he can't be a good QB.

[Wys Guy]

no he isn't. Part of why i included Losman's numbers from last year is for a better basis of comparison.

My basic point is we're still in a pee-ing contest with both sides spraying their shoes. Both are mediocre.

Indeed.

Didn't know you were and ex-Marine.

[Wys Guy]

I didn't know if it was really you or not! Just didn't know you had come back from lurking :D

I'm bored. ;)

I run in spurts.

[camelcowboy]

Well, we've had three QB's in a row that had so called "canons" for arms (Johnson, Bledsoe, and Losman) and we see how well that worked out. Just because TE doesn't throw an 80 MPH bullet doesn't mean he can't be a good QB. i agree ill take the qb with the brain. Watching Peyton monday night shows you don't have to best arm to be a elite qb.

[Mitchy moo]

I'm bored. ;)

I run in spurts.

lol.

[Wys Guy]

Small sampling size for Losman? Are you nuts? The guy is in his 4th season!

Losman has had over 700 attempts in the NFL. He has shown what he is, which is a player who can flash at times but lacks consistency. He can throw the ball downfield at times, but hesitates when his first read in taken away.

Losman isn't terrible, but he isn't the answer either. You need consistency from your starting QB, and Losman won't deliver that.

He is another Jeff Blake.

Not defending Losman b/c he made absolutely no progress seemingly from last season to this one even in preseason. But Blake had a lot more playing time.

Losman's first season was on IR. His second he sat and had to endure watching Bledsoe. In '05 he got yanked in and out of games like a golf ball in a ball washer. Last year was his first season of starting.

Haven't looked at his attempts, but he's had 26 starts or so with only one entire season of continuity in there.

[Ingtar33]

The only numbers differentiating the two right now is the Percentage of 3 and out drives.

Edwards is going 3 and out 25% of the time
Losman over his career has been at a 29-36% clip

What does that mean? Well it either means our running game is better, OR Edwards is getting us into 2nd and 3rd and short a lot more then Losman did.

Considering that our Running game is hitting at about the same numbers as it was last year... i tend to think it's the former.

Bills rushing numbers per game, and per attempt
99 in 2007 (3.7)
97 in 2006 (3.7)
100 in 2005 (3.8)

[Ingtar33]

i just want to make a small side point.

It's amazing how similar these numbers are from player to player and year to year.

And how bad they are compared to the league average.

[Mitchy moo]

i just want to make a small side point.

It's amazing how similar these numbers are from player to player and year to year.

And how bad they are compared to the league average.

You can blame the coaches for trying to put a round peg in square hole for the past few season but not anymore.

[Wys Guy]

i just want to make a small side point.

It's amazing how similar these numbers are from player to player and year to year.

And how bad they are compared to the league average.

Indeed. And that's not a coincidence.

[acehole]

Indeed. And that's not a coincidence.

We really should give this thread a rest until lets say 8pm Sunday eve....

I have a feeling the TE lickers will be nowhere to be found......
Or they will insert 500 excuses why he sucked all used by
guys supporting JP for the first two game. But they will be ok
to use because JP is a vet and he is a rookie so lets give him
time...to which we say why? I thought he was allready better
and gives us a chance to win now? ..and then you will put a gay
smiley face there because you have no answer.

[mybills]

Watching Peyton monday night shows you don't have to best arm to be a elite qb.
:roflmao:

[Tatonka]

We really should give this thread a rest until lets say 8pm Sunday eve....

I have a feeling the TE lickers will be nowhere to be found......
Or they will insert 500 excuses why he sucked all used by
guys supporting JP for the first two game. But they will be ok
to use because JP is a vet and he is a rookie so lets give him
time...to which we say why? I thought he was allready better
and gives us a chance to win now? ..and then you will put a gay
smiley face there because you have no answer.

there is no way that edwards shouldnt have a good game this week, to be honest.. and i think he will.. i also think that hamden or any other scrub would play well against the jets.. now if we actually lose and TE tosses another one of his patented late game, crucial picks, or gets on the field and cant run the clock out like he has done ever game.. well then, that is a different story.. then i will really be upset.. right now, im just irritated.

:up:

[Wys Guy]

there is no way that edwards shouldnt have a good game this week, to be honest.. and i think he will.. i also think that hamden or any other scrub would play well against the jets.. now if we actually lose and TE tosses another one of his patented late game, crucial picks, or gets on the field and cant run the clock out like he has done ever game.. well then, that is a different story.. then i will really be upset.. right now, im just irritated.

:up:

Everyone is playing well vs. the Jets. That's why they rank near the bottom in rating allowed, efficiencies of other sorts, and passing in general.

[justasportsfan]

Watching Peyton monday night shows you don't have to best arm to be a elite qb.
say what?

[pintonick96]

My biggest knock on him is his tunnel vision. Ask Akili Smith how long you stay in the NFL if you have tunnel vision in the pocket.

[Tatonka]

um.. are you saying that peyton doesnt have a rocket of an arm?

[mybills]

um.. are you saying that peyton doesnt have a rocket of an arm?
I believe that IS what he said. That's why I :roflmao:

[Ickybaluky]

um.. are you saying that peyton doesnt have a rocket of an arm?

Manning has a good arm, not a rocket. Eli actually has a stronger arm than Peyton.

Manning's arm strength is above-average, but accuracy is more his calling card.

[justasportsfan]

Not defending Losman b/c he made absolutely no progress seemingly from last season to this one even in preseason. But Blake had a lot more playing time.

Losman's first season was on IR. His second he sat and had to endure watching Bledsoe. In '05 he got yanked in and out of games like a golf ball in a ball washer. Last year was his first season of starting.

Haven't looked at his attempts, but he's had 26 starts or so with only one entire season of continuity in there.
I doubt anyone could've succeeded under those circumstances. If it was Trent in JP's shoes we'd be saying Trent hasn't developed yet as well.

[acehole]

Yes I agree. Despite what some think, I don't hate Losman. I actually think that this team has some talent, but it will continue to be wasted with this coaching staff. I'm not saying Buffalo is the most talented team in the league, far from it, but I would love to see what this team can do with some honest to god decent coaching. I know right now that they would have two more wins than they do currently.

Ralphy has Jurkran for a 5 year contract,....that mean he is here for 4 more I am afraid...I hope if that is the case they throw Farchild uder the bus....I like what the defense is doing lately...