My First Playoff Thread/How 9-7 (5-3 finish) could get us in.

[Patrick76777]

It’s beneficial that we’re in the AFC East and (Cross my fingers) we should get 4 wins in the bag. This is a nice change as usually, The Jets, Bills and Phins beat each other down and they all miss.

The first step in the tiebreaker process is to break all ties within the division. No way we catch NE for the East title and if we end up being tied with the Jets or Miami, the point will be moot because since they already have 8 losses, that would mean that we would have at least 8 losses and 8-8 is not getting in.

But I think 9-7 could do it. 4 times since the new division format was set up (2002), has a 9-7 team in the AFC made the playoffs. I bet the number in the NFC is much higher. I know 8-8 teams have made it in the NFC.

As it stands now, we’re at 4-3 in the AFC. Since we don’t have to worry about divisional tiebreakers, we just need to worry about head to head and AFC record. From doing this every year, I can tell you that a 7-5 AFC record usually puts you in great shape to win the tie breaker as most teams will end 6-6 or worse in the AFC (They do this by beating up on the NFC every year).

That being said, if we can get to 8-4 in the AFC, we’d almost be guaranteed to win any tiebreaker. Of course, for that to happen, we’d need finish with the same record as the teams we were tied with. Duh!

The 4 games in question, both Miami games, in Cleveland and in J-Ville. (I’m still hoping we get J-Ville without Garrard) Plus, we should, knock on wood, Should beat Miami. Making that Cleveland game BIG!

If we win those 4 and one of the NFC games, we’ll finish 9-7 (8-4) and have head to heads over Balt, Clev and J-ville. That should give us the last spot assuming 9-7 is good enough to get in.

If we can win those 4 and beat 2 of the 3 NFC teams (@ Wash, NYG and @ Philly) we’ll be 10-6 (8-4) and there’s NO WAY we miss.


DISCLAIMER!!!!!

This is not a prediction thread; it’s only an informative thread.

[Patrick76777]

Can someone move this to the BillsZone.

[LtBillsFan66]

This is the time of year Pat hits his stride! :up:

[Patrick76777]

Thanks guys!

[Dr. Lecter]

Nice work Pat.

And just think, if somehow the Bills upset the Pats.......

[Patrick76777]

Nice work Pat.

And just think, if somehow the Bills upset the Pats.......


I would've gotten killed in this thread if I put that in there. But if we do........

[Dr. Lecter]

Primetime upset baby!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[JD]

Shouldnt we worry about the Chargers or are people already writing them into the post season? I havent really looked at their upcoming games so I wasnt sure.

[Patrick76777]

I could really see us finishing like this:

@Miami - W - 5-4
NE - L - 5-5
@Jax - W - 6-5
@Was - W - 7-5
Miami - W - 8-5
@Cle - W - 9-5
NYG - L - 9-6
@Phi - W(as they run for the bus) - 10-6

Playoffs!

Jax will be the toughest game. Let's hope that Grey is still playing at that point.

[Patrick76777]

Shouldnt we worry about the Chargers or are people already writing them into the post season? I havent really looked at their upcoming games so I wasnt sure.


The leaders in the West are at 4-4. It's KC and SD. Den and Oak look to be done.

I figure SD will win enough to take the Division and I don't see KC keeping up the pace. But they may be one of the teams we're fighing with.

[LtBillsFan66]

I BILLieve!

[Patrick76777]

The leaders in the West are at 4-4. It's KC and SD. Den and Oak look to be done.

I figure SD will win enough to take the Division and I don't see KC keeping up the pace. But they may be one of the teams we're fighing with.


That being said, I did think that if SD can fall flat on their face, and KC wins that division, and we finish 10-6 and get the first WC spot, we'd go to KC for the first round and THAT would be a winnable game.

[Mr. Pink]

9-7 is not gonna be good enough to get in as a wild card in the AFC.

Tennessee is already 6-2 and playing really good ball...they could finish 12-4 easily. Fisher has done an awesome job this year.

Cleveland has the weakest schedule of the teams in the playoff chase after they get down with Pittsburgh this weekend...They got Hou, SF, Ari, Cincy left to go, so that should be 4 wins there. They'll figure out a way to win 1 of the other 4 at least and go 10-6. I honestly feel whoever wins Sunday in the Browns-Steelers matchup is winning the North so Pittsburgh could join in on the wild card group.

Jacksonville is a non-factor. Quinn Gray is garbage and has to play 4 straight games unless Garrard gets better faster than anticipated, with their schedule, I outlined this in the thread Pat Moran started before I could see them lose their next 6. Due to the QB issue and teams they play after Garrard is supposed to be back. San Diego and Indy if memory serves me right.

Baltimore to me is another non-factor, they're lockerroom and chemistry is in shambles. Ray Ray is calling out Billick weekly for gameplans and their starting corners are both hurting. Not too mention their offense, like Ray Ray stated, is absolute garbage.

KC has played over their heads so far, expect SD to win the division and KC to finish 7-9 ish. No factor there for us.

So our main factor opponent in making the playoffs is the Browns or Steelers, depending on how this Sunday goes down. It's gonna take us at least going 6-2 to get there though and I don't know if Buffalo's O can hang with the Browns. And we've already lost the tie-breaker to the Steelers.

[Patrick76777]

9-7 is not gonna be good enough to get in as a wild card in the AFC.

.


I knew someone was going to post that.

[Patrick76777]

9-7 is not gonna be good enough to get in as a wild card in the AFC.

Tennessee is already 6-2 and playing really good ball...they could finish 12-4 easily. Fisher has done an awesome job this year.

Cleveland has the weakest schedule of the teams in the playoff chase after they get down with Pittsburgh this weekend...They got Hou, SF, Ari, Cincy left to go, so that should be 4 wins there. They'll figure out a way to win 1 of the other 4 at least and go 10-6. I honestly feel whoever wins Sunday in the Browns-Steelers matchup is winning the North so Pittsburgh could join in on the wild card group.

Jacksonville is a non-factor. Quinn Gray is garbage and has to play 4 straight games unless Garrard gets better faster than anticipated, with their schedule, I outlined this in the thread Pat Moran started before I could see them lose their next 6. Due to the QB issue and teams they play after Garrard is supposed to be back. San Diego and Indy if memory serves me right.

Baltimore to me is another non-factor, they're lockerroom and chemistry is in shambles. Ray Ray is calling out Billick weekly for gameplans and their starting corners are both hurting. Not too mention their offense, like Ray Ray stated, is absolute garbage.

KC has played over their heads so far, expect SD to win the division and KC to finish 7-9 ish. No factor there for us.

So our main factor opponent in making the playoffs is the Browns or Steelers, depending on how this Sunday goes down. It's gonna take us at least going 6-2 to get there though and I don't know if Buffalo's O can hang with the Browns. And we've already lost the tie-breaker to the Steelers.


I'm not sold on the Titans yet. They're winning by small margins. You say that they could finish 12-4, But at the same time they could finish 2-6 for a 8-8 finish.

[Mr. Pink]

I knew someone was going to post that.


Hey, at least I outlined why and didn't just leave it that!

[Bruce is Loose]

great post - gotta billeve!

[patmoran2006]

i AGREE with Fun.

I dont think 9 wins will get it done. WE need 10.

TO me there have been three games that are going to end up devastating to our playoff chance.

1 and 2= THe obvious last second losses to Den and Dallas
3- Cleveland winning in OT vs Seattle when the Hawks had a 4th quarter lead. I watched that game PRAYING SEattle would hold on.

I think Clev wins 10 games. IMO for us to get in, we have to win 5 of last 6 after beating MIami and losing ot NE-- and that one loss CANNOT be against Cleveland. If we both finish with 10 wins and we beat them, we could be gold.

I dont see Jags or KC getting to 10, especially KC.

[Patrick76777]

i AGREE with Fun.

I dont think 9 wins will get it done. WE need 10.

TO me there have been three games that are going to end up devastating to our playoff chance.

1 and 2= THe obvious last second losses to Den and Dallas
3- Cleveland winning in OT vs Seattle when the Hawks had a 4th quarter lead. I watched that game PRAYING SEattle would hold on.

I think Clev wins 10 games. IMO for us to get in, we have to win 5 of last 6 after beating MIami and losing ot NE-- and that one loss CANNOT be against Cleveland. If we both finish with 10 wins and we beat them, we could be gold.

I dont see Jags or KC getting to 10, especially KC.

I'm trying not to worry about the other teams just yet. Lotta football to be played.

I just want to get the Bills into position.

Besides, Cleveland lost to Oakland and had to battle back against Seattle. i'm not "giving" them any auto wins.

Just another example of getting too high with the highs and to low with the lows. After week 1 everyone said that Cleveland might be the worst team ever. Now, They come back against Seattle and we're saying that they have 4 slam dunk wins the rest of the way.

Not that sold yet.

And I didn't say that the Bills would win those game above, again, I'm just laying it out there.

[Ed]

I was going to start a playoff related thread, but I guess I'll just post here.

What I think is really cool about this weekend, is that by Monday we could have sole possession of the 6th and final playoff spot and control our own destiny from here on out. I know there's still a long ways to go, but when was the last time we were in this sort of position at this point in the season and not having to play catch up?

Cleveland and Jacksonville, the two teams ahead of us for the 6th spot, both have tough games this weekend. Road games against Pittsburgh and Tennessee respectively. So if we beat Miami, and Cleveland and Jax both lose, which is very possible, we'd move ahead of both teams as our conference record would be better.

That leaves San Diego and KC. SD plays Indy and KC plays Denver without LJ. So we need one of them to lose.

So a Buffalo win plus a Cleveland, Jacksonville and SD or KC loss puts us in control of our own playoff destiny without needing any help. I know that won't mean much since we gotta play NE after Miami, and we've still got a ways to go, but given the positions we've been in the past few years at this point, I thought that was pretty cool.

Go Bills!

[Mitchy moo]

I was going to start a playoff related thread, but I guess I'll just post here.

What I think is really cool about this weekend, is that by Monday we could have sole possession of the 6th and final playoff spot and control our own destiny from here on out. I know there's still a long ways to go, but when was the last time we were in this sort of position at this point in the season and not having to play catch up?

Cleveland and Jacksonville, the two teams ahead of us for the 6th spot, both have tough games this weekend. Road games against Pittsburgh and Tennessee respectively. So if we beat Miami, and Cleveland and Jax both lose, which is very possible, we'd move ahead of both teams as our conference record would be better.

That leaves San Diego and KC. SD plays Indy and KC plays Denver without LJ. So we need one of them to lose.

So a Buffalo win plus a Cleveland, Jacksonville and SD or KC loss puts us in control of our own playoff destiny without needing any help. I know that won't mean much since we gotta play NE after Miami, and we've still got a ways to go, but given the positions we've been in the past few years at this point, I thought that was pretty cool.

Go Bills!

It is cool actually, thanks for the heads up. If we win out one might safely assume that at 12-4 you get a wild card spot anyways but you broke it down to this weekends action, which is sweet. I will keep an eye on the Miami stadium out of town scoreboard and hope for those scenario's.

[RedEyE]

Nice!

Things are definitly looking up for Buffalo. If they tank this next game in Miami, all bets are off in my mind as this team needs to beat the bad teams in order to advance.

I think beating Washington is going to be difficult as well, but like you said, unecessary, as beating Philly shouldn't be difficult. Washington is playing bad football right now, but I can't seeing that continue.

However, just as I see losing to Miami throwing this team into a tailspin, I can see this team radically propelling if they some how find a way to get past NE.

Cleveland is tough, and the Bills are notoriuolsy bad against good tight ends. I hate hoping for injury, but Winslow has been really banged up and I'm not sure he'll make it the whole season. So, again, doable.

[BillsOverDolphins]

Nice work Pat.

And just think, if somehow the Bills upset the Pats.......
...then I will crap myself

[BAM]

I look forward to your breakdowns every year Patrick! You do a great job and I am too freekin' lazy to do it myself! Way to go buddy. :clap:

All of this could happen, much to the dismay of a few folks around here.

[shelby]

i still Billieve!

Nice job Patrick!

[casdhf]

It's mid-season and people are talking playoffs. I love it.

[bflojohn]

I've said this before, but Cleveland hasn't been in a playoff chase yet (last year the Bills were, at 7-7) and Jacksonville under Jack Del Rio has been Jekyl and Hyde since he got there. The Giants are due to implode any week now, and the Eagles are starting to talk up Kevin Kolb playing!!! The Washington game is pivotal, to me, and they are beatable if the Bills remain confident and focused! Personally, I think a hot streak is maintainable for the second half, in the Bills case!! They should and probably will sweep the Fins....