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Assumptions: AFC wild card will have at least a 10-6 record. Head to head is worth a game. If we beat Browns and Jax they must have an 11 and 5 record to beat us out. Neither will Baltimore which would need to run table to get to 11-5.
Currently
1) Titans and Jags are 6 and 3
2) Bills and Browns are 5 and 4
3) Browns, Ravens, Denver and Chiefs are 4 and 5.
4) Titans have 2 games v (OWCC) other wild card contenders ( @ Denver and @ KC) and 2 games (AST) against superior teams (@ Indy and San Diego).
5) Jags have one OWCC ( Bills) and 3 AST ( San Diego, Indy and @ Pittsburgh)
6)Bills have 2 OWCC ( @ Jags, @ Browns) and two AST ( Pats and NYG sic)
7) Browns have 2 OWCC ( Bills and @ Ravens)
8) Ravens have one OWCC (Browns) and four AST (@ SD, New England, Indy and Steelers)
9)Broncos have 2 OWCC ( KC and Tenn) and one AST ( San Diego)
10) Chiefs OWCC @ Denver and Tenn and 3 AST Indy, SD, and Detroit
From this I conclude that
11) Key games for Bills are Jags and Browns ( both away games). Given they lose to Pats Bills can lose one other but not to Cleve or Jax. In my view Redskins away is critical. If Bills win 3 Jags. WAsh, and Cleveland all away I will be drowning in the kool aid.
12) If Jags lose to Bills Jags are decided underdogs to make wild card.
13) If Bills beat Cleveland and Jax they will only lose on head to head tie breaker to Denver , we have already lost to Broncos. If we lose to either Browns or Jags we are probably done.
14) Root for Titans. We can't beat them ( we dont play) and we profit if they take care of Denver and KC
15) Wish for Jax collapse. Good news is they have arguably the toughest road to hoe.
16) Root extra hard for Ravens to beat Browns. Ravens have virtually no chance given their schedule so they must rise to the occassion for the sake of the Bills and beat Browns who have "easiest schedule" left.
17) Chiefs must like wise answer the call and beat Broncos. Chiefs like Ravens and Jags (if and only if they lose to Bills) are dead meat but they still play important games for the sake of Billdom.
18) Fear the Browns
Currently
1) Titans and Jags are 6 and 3
2) Bills and Browns are 5 and 4
3) Browns, Ravens, Denver and Chiefs are 4 and 5.
4) Titans have 2 games v (OWCC) other wild card contenders ( @ Denver and @ KC) and 2 games (AST) against superior teams (@ Indy and San Diego).
5) Jags have one OWCC ( Bills) and 3 AST ( San Diego, Indy and @ Pittsburgh)
6)Bills have 2 OWCC ( @ Jags, @ Browns) and two AST ( Pats and NYG sic)
7) Browns have 2 OWCC ( Bills and @ Ravens)
8) Ravens have one OWCC (Browns) and four AST (@ SD, New England, Indy and Steelers)
9)Broncos have 2 OWCC ( KC and Tenn) and one AST ( San Diego)
10) Chiefs OWCC @ Denver and Tenn and 3 AST Indy, SD, and Detroit
From this I conclude that
11) Key games for Bills are Jags and Browns ( both away games). Given they lose to Pats Bills can lose one other but not to Cleve or Jax. In my view Redskins away is critical. If Bills win 3 Jags. WAsh, and Cleveland all away I will be drowning in the kool aid.
12) If Jags lose to Bills Jags are decided underdogs to make wild card.
13) If Bills beat Cleveland and Jax they will only lose on head to head tie breaker to Denver , we have already lost to Broncos. If we lose to either Browns or Jags we are probably done.
14) Root for Titans. We can't beat them ( we dont play) and we profit if they take care of Denver and KC
15) Wish for Jax collapse. Good news is they have arguably the toughest road to hoe.
16) Root extra hard for Ravens to beat Browns. Ravens have virtually no chance given their schedule so they must rise to the occassion for the sake of the Bills and beat Browns who have "easiest schedule" left.
17) Chiefs must like wise answer the call and beat Broncos. Chiefs like Ravens and Jags (if and only if they lose to Bills) are dead meat but they still play important games for the sake of Billdom.
18) Fear the Browns
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