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Bills' playoff chances look slim
Here's a realistic look at Buffalo's playoff prospects.
The four AFC division winners plus two wild-card teams will qualify.
Let's concede the division titles to current leaders New England (9-0), Pittsburgh (7-2), Indianapolis (7-2) and underachieving but talented San Diego (5-4). That leaves eight teams chasing two wild-card berths:
Jacksonville and Tennessee are 6-3. Buffalo and Cleveland are 5-4. Baltimore, Denver, Houston and Kansas City at 4-5.
For the purpose of this analysis, forget about Miami (0-9), the New York Jets (1-8). Oakland (2-7) and Cincinnati (3-6).
Here are the remaining schedules for the eight teams in pursuit of two playoff spots:
JACKSONVILLE — San Diego, Buffalo, at Indianapolis, Carolina, at Pittsburgh, Oakland, at Houston.
Combined record of opponents: 34-29.
Huge game vs. the Bills Nov. 25. Playing at the Colts and Steelers is a tough assignment.
Reasonable projection: 4-3 in the remaining seven games to finish 10-6.
TENNESSEE — At Denver, at Cincinnati, Houston, San Diego, at Kansas City, New York Jets, at Indianapolis.
Combined record of opponents: 28-35.
Reasonable projection: 3-4 to finish 9-7.
BUFFALO — New England, at Jacksonville, at Washington, Miami, at Cleveland, New York Giants, at Philadelphia.
Combined record of opponents: 35-28.
Probable losses to the Patriots and Giants. Huge games against the Jaguars Nov. 25 and the Browns Dec. 16.
Reasonable projection (with a healthy Marshawn Lynch for the final six games): 3-4 to finish 8-8. The Bills are trying to become the 10th team of the Super Bowl era to make the playoffs after a 1-4 start (most recently the 2004 Green Bay Packers).
Optimistic scenario: 4-3 to finish 9-7.
CLEVELAND — At Baltimore, Houston, at Arizona, at New York Jets, Buffalo, at Cincinnati, San Francisco.
Combined record of opponents: 23-40.
If I were a Browns fan, I'd be excited. With Cleveland's offense, there isn't an opponent it can't beat. But with Cleveland's defense, no victory is certain — except the finale against the punchless 49ers.
BALTIMORE — Cleveland, at San Diego, New England, Indianapolis, at Miami, at Seattle, Pittsburgh.
Combined record of opponents: 38-25.
Ridiculously tough final four home games.
Reasonable projection: the way the sagging Ravens are playing, 2-5 for a final record of 6-10.
DENVER — Tennessee, at Chicago, at Oakland, Kansas City, at Houston, at San Diego, Minnesota.
Combined record of opponents: 28-35.
Reasonable projection: 4-3 to finish 8-8.
HOUSTON — New Orleans, at Cleveland, at Tennessee, Tampa Bay, Denver, at Indianapolis, Jacksonville.
Combined record of opponents: 37-26.
The Texans play fellow wild-card chasers Cleveland, Tennessee and Jacksonville.
Reasonable projection: 2-5 to finish 6-10.
KANSAS CITY — At Indianapolis, Oakland, San Diego, at Denver, Tennessee, at Detroit, at New York Jets.
Combined record of opponents: 31-32.
The Chiefs would be in good shape if a season-ending win would put them in the playoffs (they'll play the Jets).
Reasonable projection: 3-4 to finish 7-9.
The two wild-card berths in order of probability: Jacksonville (with David Garrard back at QB), Tennessee, Cleveland, Buffalo, Denver, Kansas City, Baltimore, Houston.
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