The "Better Chance To Win" Theory.

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  • patmoran2006
    Ole' Ralphie SCROOGE
    • Dec 2005
    • 19840

    The "Better Chance To Win" Theory.

    I am honestly at wit's end right now. For the past few weeks, I've heard over and over again about how JP Losman gives the Bills a "Better Chance To Win." I mean, that's literally the reason every Losman supporter throws down with in a discussion about our quarterbacks.

    Most threads end up being like two gangs taking sides, with very strong opinions that often get personal. This thread is NOT intended to be one of those so if your a troll who gets off on turning discussion into personal attacks, find another thread.

    I'd like this discussion to be 100% about unbiased facts. I ask you guys (who don't already agree) this question: HOW exactly do the Buffalo Bills have a better chance of winning football games because of JP Losman over Trent Edwards?

    And unlike many people on the other side of the friends, rather than just offer my personal opinions, I'm going to back it up with numbers.. Something apparently some people are obsessed with, especially when they can only come up with Trent's 1TD to 5INT ratio.

    Well how about this, and at end I invite any adult discussion on exactly why Losman gives us the "better chance".

    * IF JP is such an exciting "gunslinger", then why is the offense averaging more passing yards when Edwards plays (158 to 141) than Losman, and that INCLUDES the Cincinnati game Losman "went off" on?

    * Edwards is completing 66.1% of his passes, Losman 62.2%. Three of Edwards' four starts have seen him complete at least 67% of his passes.

    * Edwards has been sacked 9 times this year, Losman has been sacked 13 times. Edwards has one fumble this season, Losman has three fumbles. As a matter of fact, Losman has fumbled the ball 24 times and been sacked 87 times in his career.

    * In JP Losman's last two starts, who many consider the "defining moment" in his career, against the worst team and the best team in the league back-to-back--- Losman has went 27-for-49 for 330 yards, 1 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Are you telling me Edwards couldn't put up 13 points at Miami, or match losman's 10 points last night? Hell, Edwards put up 10 against NE, at New England- in the very first action of his entire career, including the best drive of our season in his FIRST action ever (the 80 yard, 12 play drive that took 6:42 off the clock). Again, and I do ask this seriously, Losman gives us a "better chance" how?

    * Again, Losman is considered the mad gunslinger, yet his average yards per attempt is only 0.9 more than Edwards (7.4 to 6.5)

    **** But of all the stats I researched, this is the one that burns me up the most. Some people say Losman gives us the better chance to win, yet in his career he is EXACTLY 3 and 15 against teams that have at least a .500 record. Are you kidding me? That's 20% of the time the Bills win with Losman starting when we play a team that doesn't have a losing record.

    * In those 15 losses, the team (not the offense, the entire TEAM) averages 11.4 points per game. In more than half of those losses, we've failed to score more than 7 points.

    * Whether you like it or not, Edwards is 3-1 as a starter, and had it not been for a fluke onside kick and bad Fewel pass defense at the end of the game, he'd be undefeated. Baltimore was a one loss team when they came to town, and Dallas was undefeated.

    * Lastly, the TD and INT are misleading, although BOTH QB's have a ****ty ratio. yes, Losman has 2 more TD's, but look at those two; an underthrown bomb to Evans he wrestled away from Darrelle Reevis, and another underthrown bomb to Roscoe Parrish that the receiver came back and made an excellent play against an off-balanced Ellis Hobbs.

    Unless Losman is secretly "underthrowing" every long pass he attempts (which I doubt, unless the horribly underthrown intercepted ball in the end zone at Miami was on purpose too), he's gotten bailed out on magnificent plays by WR's twice.

    NOW the last part here is my opinion, based largely on facts from what we've all seen.

    By comparision, some people act like Edwards is INCAPABLE of getting the ball deep. Hogwash. That 50-yard completion vs Baltimore was a dart. He threw a long nice long pass (against the Jets I believe at home) that had plenty of air on it, it was intercepted because Evans failed to fight for the ball, which Tasker pointed out.

    Now don't get me wrong. Edwards is FAR from a perfect, finished product. His int against Dallas and the one vs Baltimore were TERRIBLE decisions. But then again, is that something that Losman doesn't do at least 2-3 times every game himself (honesty, even the staunchest of Losman supporters need to admit he throws some of the ugliest picks ever).

    The bottom line is, based on ALL of the numbers and facts I presented, unless we're playing a bottom feeder like Houston or Cincinnati, I totally FAIL to see how JP Losman gives us a better chance to win.

    Whether you like Jauron/Fairchild or not (and most of us dont) the bottom line is this team is CLEARLYYYYYY being built around a strong running attack, mixing up a variety of passes, holding on to the ball and trying to put our defense in a position to succeed. It works when Edwards is on the field for obvious reasons, it does not when Losman is on the field, for the same obvious reasons.

    So one last time, without any personal bull****, I'd love for people who disagree to digest any or all of this, and then come back and tell me why I'm wrong and that Losman actually DOES give the Bills the best chance to win.


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  • shelby
    The Vanilla admin
    • Jul 2002
    • 48489

    #2
    Re: The "Better Chance To Win" Theory.

    i applaud the spirit of this thread and hope others will respect it.

    i like JP and want him to succeed, but he is inconsistent and makes bad decisions.

    i don't necessarily believe he gives us the best chance to succeed. Jauron could choose to start Edwards, and i would be fine with that. He is a rookie, and could use the time to develop.

    i think the FO has decided to stick with him as the starter because of the amount of vocal support he has been given by his teammates, especially Lee Evans. i also think the FO is hesitant to bench JP again because a) they hope he will generate interest from other teams and b) the Bills still have a shot to get in the playoffs. The FO is disregarding JP's performance at Miami and last night against New England. They are hoping he will play like he did against Cincy and help the team reach the postseason.

    i am not biased against either player. i, too, want to see the Bills reach the postseason again. i will support whoever is behind center. This is a team sport, and all the parts need to work well together in order to find success.


    Comment

    • patmoran2006
      Ole' Ralphie SCROOGE
      • Dec 2005
      • 19840

      #3
      Re: The "Better Chance To Win" Theory.

      Good post Shelby.
      I mainly agree.

      The thing Im trying to find out more than anything from others, especially those who think JP should still be starting because he gives us the best chance to win, is WHY..


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      • Mr. Pink
        Peterman Sucks!
        • Mar 2006
        • 35303

        #4
        Re: The "Better Chance To Win" Theory.

        The only two points I can bring up is that one Losman brings more experience to the table. Experiene is a vital cog in being successful, well like 90% of the time it is at least. Losman at this point is a veteran, whether people on here like to admit that or not. And being a veteran whom the locker room for the most part likes goes a long way in being successful on the field. Look at what happened with Holcomb-Losman? Most of the locker room backed Holcomb and the play on the field reflected it.

        Second point isn't about success this season but more so along the lines of ******ing Edwards progress. Again, same thing happened to Losman. And no I don't feel sorry for him, years later he has had a chance to get over the hump and hasn't. Throwing Edwards in too early could have detrimental effects on this franchise for the long haul. Splitting the locker room, stunting his growth, shaking his confidence are three huge examples of what could happen.

        Outside of that, I got nothing. And I don't support one player or the other more, I'm just as done with the Losman experience BUT I want Trent to have full command of the team when he is named starter again.

        Comment

        • patmoran2006
          Ole' Ralphie SCROOGE
          • Dec 2005
          • 19840

          #5
          Re: The "Better Chance To Win" Theory.

          Another good post.
          The only thing i disagree about is stunting Edwards' growth (although I disagree I DEFINITELY think Jauron is taking it into consideration, maybe the biggest reason he's not starting at the Jags)

          I think Edwards has played very well for a third-round rookie, and like I said, we were very close to being undefeated with him as a starter.

          From what I seen with my own eyes, it seems like despite being a rookie, Edwards thinking and demeanor on the field is already more "grown up" than Losman, who's been a first round pick in the league since 2004.. That however, is just opinion not fact.


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          • patmoran2006
            Ole' Ralphie SCROOGE
            • Dec 2005
            • 19840

            #6
            Re: The "Better Chance To Win" Theory.

            Originally posted by FunTimesYaY!
            The only two points I can bring up is that one Losman brings more experience to the table. Experiene is a vital cog in being successful, well like 90% of the time it is at least. Losman at this point is a veteran, whether people on here like to admit that or not. And being a veteran whom the locker room for the most part likes goes a long way in being successful on the field. Look at what happened with Holcomb-Losman? Most of the locker room backed Holcomb and the play on the field reflected it.

            Second point isn't about success this season but more so along the lines of ******ing Edwards progress. Again, same thing happened to Losman. And no I don't feel sorry for him, years later he has had a chance to get over the hump and hasn't. Throwing Edwards in too early could have detrimental effects on this franchise for the long haul. Splitting the locker room, stunting his growth, shaking his confidence are three huge examples of what could happen.

            Outside of that, I got nothing. And I don't support one player or the other more, I'm just as done with the Losman experience BUT I want Trent to have full command of the team when he is named starter again.
            Like the last paragrah and that makes sense. If Losman has the reigns and fails (which he's on the verge of doing again) then I see it hard for a locker room to fault going to Edwards, and that even includes Evans.


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            • THE END OF ALL DAYS
              The Allen Era has begun.... no looking back now, come hell or high water!
              • Feb 2005
              • 4525

              #7
              Re: The "Better Chance To Win" Theory.

              I did not see evens get anything deep last night
              In my day we did not have self-esteem... we had self-respect, and no more of it then we earned.

              Comment

              • patmoran2006
                Ole' Ralphie SCROOGE
                • Dec 2005
                • 19840

                #8
                Re: The "Better Chance To Win" Theory.

                Originally posted by keithtr
                I did not see evens get anything deep last night
                Threw to him once long.. Wasn't even close to being completed. Double coverage was easily defended.


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                • shelby
                  The Vanilla admin
                  • Jul 2002
                  • 48489

                  #9
                  Re: The "Better Chance To Win" Theory.

                  FTY brings up a good point: wasn't it Marv who said a quarterback should be developed slowly?

                  Perhaps he's encouraging Jauron to be patient and let Losman finish out the season?

                  Comment

                  • billsburgh
                    Registered User
                    • Jul 2003
                    • 3560

                    #10
                    Re: The "Better Chance To Win" Theory.

                    Originally posted by patmoran2006
                    Good post Shelby.
                    I mainly agree.

                    The thing Im trying to find out more than anything from others, especially those who think JP should still be starting because he gives us the best chance to win, is WHY..
                    he doesnt Pat, and that's never going to change. what you see is what you're going to get with JP. I've been one of JP's biggest supporters, maybe not vocally here on the zone. he was supposed to have finally turned the corner last year, but he looks no different that he did his first year starting. for whatever reason, the guy cant play consistently at the level needed to succeed in the nfl. it's a shame really because the guy has worked his ass off trying to get better, but just cant seem to put it all together.

                    Comment

                    • The Answer
                      The Plagiarist
                      • Mar 2007
                      • 2633

                      #11
                      Re: The "Better Chance To Win" Theory.

                      Bottom Line is that Losman is 2-6 in his in his last 8 starts going back to the critical game against the Titans last christmas. And the only two wins during this stretch have come agaisnt the dolphins (0-10) and bengals (3-7).

                      At some point you have to acknowledge the obvious - Losman is not a winner and he can't beat good teams. After we get pummeled in Jacksonville and Losman has his usual type of game hopefully this 'best chance to win' garbage ends once and for all.

                      ~The Answer

                      Comment

                      • Philagape
                        WIN NOW
                        • Jul 2002
                        • 19432

                        #12
                        Re: The "Better Chance To Win" Theory.

                        Usually those who say JP gives the better chance to win will point out Trent's INT-to-TD ratio and the bad timing of a couple of his picks. That's a valid point ...... based on what has happened so far.

                        But now, when it's clear JP is a failure, we have to throw out all the stats and think about the future. As a developing rookie, Trent's career path is just beginning, and based on the intangibles he's shown, he has upside. He can get better, and I think he can get better quickly.

                        Therefore I'd rather go with the unknown over a known failure. And I said the same thing after 2004 and in 2005.
                        "It is better to be divided by truth than to be united by error." -- Martin Luther

                        "Those who appease the crocodile will simply be eaten last." -- Winston Churchill

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                        2004 BZ Big Money League Champion

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                        • acehole
                          Registered User
                          • Jan 2006
                          • 4876

                          #13
                          Re: The "Better Chance To Win" Theory.

                          Well cherry picking stats dont do it for me.

                          If the coaches agreed with you he would be starting.
                          So I guess we will have to see what the season brings.
                          The one that maters to me are the ones they flash on ESPN.
                          Rating, INt's to TD ratio that kind of thing.

                          Incase you have not noticed TE has one TD in his entire career..

                          That is not enough to crown anyone.

                          and it is from the 3 yard line...how do you like that for a stat.

                          High INT to TD ratio and a lower QB rating is enough for me to stand by my opinion...backed by facts...JP will give us the best chance to win now.
                          If you want to count that second Jets game as win for Edwards well I suppose you have the right. ...it beefs up your piont. I think he (JP)was 10th or 11th best qb last year. JP may not be the long term solution here....but I dont think he is the problem with this team. Besides if Trent Edwards becomes the QB you all think he is do you really think he stays here? He will take the highest bidder when his jail sentence here is over. The problem with this team is over all talent...and nobody has complianed about that more then you.....and now all of a sudden jp this and JP that...look at that post with salaries...that should say volumes about the real problems on this team ...The Pats sign R Moss and who do we sign to impove our weapons for the qb?... Jenkins?...anyway it doesnt mater what we think...the brain trust has decided and will decide what happens...so yea when we lose blame jp and when we win complian one of his 80 yard td passes were under thrown by 5 inches in the windy NJ....and keep asking for Trend edwards to save the day....... when we cant stop anyone.....on deffense.

                          Rude awakening when the Trend Edward era begins and we come to the conclusion it was no better then the Todd Collins era....

                          Put that in your stat pipe and smoke it...

                          Originally posted by shelby
                          i applaud the spirit of this thread and hope others will respect it.

                          i like JP and want him to succeed, but he is inconsistent and makes bad decisions.

                          i don't necessarily believe he gives us the best chance to succeed. Jauron could choose to start Edwards, and i would be fine with that. He is a rookie, and could use the time to develop.

                          i think the FO has decided to stick with him as the starter because of the amount of vocal support he has been given by his teammates, especially Lee Evans. i also think the FO is hesitant to bench JP again because a) they hope he will generate interest from other teams and b) the Bills still have a shot to get in the playoffs. The FO is disregarding JP's performance at Miami and last night against New England. They are hoping he will play like he did against Cincy and help the team reach the postseason.

                          i am not biased against either player. i, too, want to see the Bills reach the postseason again. i will support whoever is behind center. This is a team sport, and all the parts need to work well together in order to find success.

                          Hated by the stupid..
                          Loved by their moms.

                          Comment

                          • Yasgur's Farm
                            Moderator
                            • Feb 2005
                            • 7091

                            #14
                            Re: The "Better Chance To Win" Theory.

                            Originally posted by acehole
                            Well cherry picking stats dont do it for me.

                            If the coaches agreed with you he would be starting.
                            So I guess we will have to see what the season brings.
                            The one that maters to me are the ones they flash on ESPN.
                            Rating, INt's to TD ratio that kind of thing.

                            Incase you have not noticed TE has one TD in his entire career..

                            That is not enough to crown anyone.

                            and it is from the 3 yard line...how do you like that for a stat.

                            High INT to TD ratio and a lower QB rating is enough for me to stand by my opinion...backed by facts...JP will give us the best chance to win now.
                            If you want to count that second Jets game as win for Edwards well I suppose you have the right. ...it beefs up your piont. I think he (JP)was 10th or 11th best qb last year. JP may not be the long term solution here....but I dont think he is the problem with this team. Besides if Trent Edwards becomes the QB you all think he is do you really think he stays here? He will take the highest bidder when his jail sentence here is over. The problem with this team is over all talent...and nobody has complianed about that more then you.....and now all of a sudden jp this and JP that...look at that post with salaries...that should say volumes about the real problems on this team ...The Pats sign R Moss and who do we sign to impove our weapons for the qb?... Jenkins?...anyway it doesnt mater what we think...the brain trust has decided and will decide what happens...so yea when we lose blame jp and when we win complian one of his 80 yard td passes were under thrown by 5 inches in the windy NJ....and keep asking for Trend edwards to save the day....... when we cant stop anyone.....on deffense.

                            Rude awakening when the Trend Edward era begins and we come to the conclusion it was no better then the Todd Collins era....

                            Put that in your stat pipe and smoke it...
                            I've vowed to stay out of QB debates last week... I'm sticking to it

                            Comment

                            • DynaPaul
                              Registered User
                              • Sep 2003
                              • 7540

                              #15
                              Re: The "Better Chance To Win" Theory.

                              If/once we get out of playoff contention, JP will lose his job and Edwards will take over and that, my friends, will be the official end of the JP era.

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