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(NOTE- this is edited. Originally I said the Bills would lose a tiebreaker down the line to Tennessee. Happily, I was wrong-- read on)
Ok guys. I just finished up the research, and though I wouldn't take it as "official", I'm pretty sure I'm correct. I'm sure some of you will do your own research, so let me me know If I'm incorrect (I'm 99% certain I'm not)
But according to my research, if the Buffalo Bills can win-out in their final four games (And it's certainly possible) then we're only one loss away by Tennesee from having potentially one hell of a tiebreaker.
Now before reading, KEEP IN MIND if we do not win out this doesn't apply, and for all purposes, our season is over. BUT..
If the Bills win out they will finish 10-6. Cleveland is one game ahead of us currently, but if we win out that means they lose to us and can finish no better than 10-6.
If Tennesee loses just ONE of their remaining four games, they can then finish no better than 10-6.
IF the Bills win out, Denver nor any other non-division leading team can catch us (thanks to Denver losing today, that was HUGE).
If we win out and finish tied with Cleveland at 10-6, that will have meant we beat them heads up. If we finish tied with just Cleveland at 10-6, we'd win the tiebreaker because we beat them head to head. If Tennessee loses one more game, we'd also win the first tiebreaker (head to head) because we'd be 1-0 vs Clev and Tenn, while Tenn would be 0-0 and Clev would be 0-1.
For the other scenario; let's say the Bills win out, and Cleveland stumbles and finishes 9-7. Let's say that Tennessee finishes with one more loss and also ends up at 10-6. We'd LOSE the tiebreaker. Here's how:
1- Head to Head (We didnt play each other, that would be void)
2- Conference Record (If we win out, we'll finish 7-5. I've said Tenny has to lose one more game. They're currently 4-4 in conference play. Their last four games all are against AFC teams. if they lose one more game, the best they can do in conference play is also 7-5, so tiebreaker #2 would be void)
If we finished tied with Tennesee, we would WIN a tiebreaker with them, based on TIEBREAKER #3
Common Games (Minimum of Four)
Tenn and Buffalo have both played Jacksonville, Denver, Cincinnati and the Jets. Tenn is 1-3 currently vs these teams (beat Jags, lost to Jags, Den and Cinci) and they still play the Jets. The BEST they could do is 2-3. The Bills are 2-2 vs those teams (Beat Jets twice, lost to Jags and Denver). They are already in at 2-2.
The Bills would BEAT Tenn in a heads-up-tiebreaker based on tiebreaker number three.
=======================================================
HERE is another way the Bills WOULD make the playoffs..
The Bills win out, Cleveland loses ONLY to us to finish 10-6, and Tennessee finishes with one or more losses to finish no better than 10-6.
in a three-team tiebreaker, the FIRST tiebreaker is
1- Head to Head. We'd win this tiebreaker by beating Cleveland.. (Tenn doesn't play either team)
We'd also make the playoffs if we win out, and Tennesee loses two of their last four games.
The Titans have a tough final month, so one or more losses is certainly possible.
They finish with:
San Diego
@ Kansas City
New York Jets
@ Indy
(Having Pitt stay within 1 game of Indy going into the final week would certainly help the Bills cause, as INdy would need to win that game in Week 17)
At any rate, as of right now we are very much still alive; but we MUST win all four of our remaining games.
Ok guys. I just finished up the research, and though I wouldn't take it as "official", I'm pretty sure I'm correct. I'm sure some of you will do your own research, so let me me know If I'm incorrect (I'm 99% certain I'm not)
But according to my research, if the Buffalo Bills can win-out in their final four games (And it's certainly possible) then we're only one loss away by Tennesee from having potentially one hell of a tiebreaker.
Now before reading, KEEP IN MIND if we do not win out this doesn't apply, and for all purposes, our season is over. BUT..
If the Bills win out they will finish 10-6. Cleveland is one game ahead of us currently, but if we win out that means they lose to us and can finish no better than 10-6.
If Tennesee loses just ONE of their remaining four games, they can then finish no better than 10-6.
IF the Bills win out, Denver nor any other non-division leading team can catch us (thanks to Denver losing today, that was HUGE).
If we win out and finish tied with Cleveland at 10-6, that will have meant we beat them heads up. If we finish tied with just Cleveland at 10-6, we'd win the tiebreaker because we beat them head to head. If Tennessee loses one more game, we'd also win the first tiebreaker (head to head) because we'd be 1-0 vs Clev and Tenn, while Tenn would be 0-0 and Clev would be 0-1.
For the other scenario; let's say the Bills win out, and Cleveland stumbles and finishes 9-7. Let's say that Tennessee finishes with one more loss and also ends up at 10-6. We'd LOSE the tiebreaker. Here's how:
1- Head to Head (We didnt play each other, that would be void)
2- Conference Record (If we win out, we'll finish 7-5. I've said Tenny has to lose one more game. They're currently 4-4 in conference play. Their last four games all are against AFC teams. if they lose one more game, the best they can do in conference play is also 7-5, so tiebreaker #2 would be void)
If we finished tied with Tennesee, we would WIN a tiebreaker with them, based on TIEBREAKER #3
Common Games (Minimum of Four)
Tenn and Buffalo have both played Jacksonville, Denver, Cincinnati and the Jets. Tenn is 1-3 currently vs these teams (beat Jags, lost to Jags, Den and Cinci) and they still play the Jets. The BEST they could do is 2-3. The Bills are 2-2 vs those teams (Beat Jets twice, lost to Jags and Denver). They are already in at 2-2.
The Bills would BEAT Tenn in a heads-up-tiebreaker based on tiebreaker number three.
=======================================================
HERE is another way the Bills WOULD make the playoffs..
The Bills win out, Cleveland loses ONLY to us to finish 10-6, and Tennessee finishes with one or more losses to finish no better than 10-6.
in a three-team tiebreaker, the FIRST tiebreaker is
1- Head to Head. We'd win this tiebreaker by beating Cleveland.. (Tenn doesn't play either team)
We'd also make the playoffs if we win out, and Tennesee loses two of their last four games.
The Titans have a tough final month, so one or more losses is certainly possible.
They finish with:
San Diego
@ Kansas City
New York Jets
@ Indy
(Having Pitt stay within 1 game of Indy going into the final week would certainly help the Bills cause, as INdy would need to win that game in Week 17)
At any rate, as of right now we are very much still alive; but we MUST win all four of our remaining games.
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