Bills ALMOST control own playoff destiny!

[patmoran2006]

(NOTE- this is edited. Originally I said the Bills would lose a tiebreaker down the line to Tennessee. Happily, I was wrong-- read on)

Ok guys. I just finished up the research, and though I wouldn't take it as "official", I'm pretty sure I'm correct. I'm sure some of you will do your own research, so let me me know If I'm incorrect (I'm 99% certain I'm not)

But according to my research, if the Buffalo Bills can win-out in their final four games (And it's certainly possible) then we're only one loss away by Tennesee from having potentially one hell of a tiebreaker.

Now before reading, KEEP IN MIND if we do not win out this doesn't apply, and for all purposes, our season is over. BUT..

If the Bills win out they will finish 10-6. Cleveland is one game ahead of us currently, but if we win out that means they lose to us and can finish no better than 10-6.

If Tennesee loses just ONE of their remaining four games, they can then finish no better than 10-6.

IF the Bills win out, Denver nor any other non-division leading team can catch us (thanks to Denver losing today, that was HUGE).

If we win out and finish tied with Cleveland at 10-6, that will have meant we beat them heads up. If we finish tied with just Cleveland at 10-6, we'd win the tiebreaker because we beat them head to head. If Tennessee loses one more game, we'd also win the first tiebreaker (head to head) because we'd be 1-0 vs Clev and Tenn, while Tenn would be 0-0 and Clev would be 0-1.

For the other scenario; let's say the Bills win out, and Cleveland stumbles and finishes 9-7. Let's say that Tennessee finishes with one more loss and also ends up at 10-6. We'd LOSE the tiebreaker. Here's how:

1- Head to Head (We didnt play each other, that would be void)

2- Conference Record (If we win out, we'll finish 7-5. I've said Tenny has to lose one more game. They're currently 4-4 in conference play. Their last four games all are against AFC teams. if they lose one more game, the best they can do in conference play is also 7-5, so tiebreaker #2 would be void)


If we finished tied with Tennesee, we would WIN a tiebreaker with them, based on TIEBREAKER #3

Common Games (Minimum of Four)
Tenn and Buffalo have both played Jacksonville, Denver, Cincinnati and the Jets. Tenn is 1-3 currently vs these teams (beat Jags, lost to Jags, Den and Cinci) and they still play the Jets. The BEST they could do is 2-3. The Bills are 2-2 vs those teams (Beat Jets twice, lost to Jags and Denver). They are already in at 2-2.

The Bills would BEAT Tenn in a heads-up-tiebreaker based on tiebreaker number three.
=======================================================
HERE is another way the Bills WOULD make the playoffs..

The Bills win out, Cleveland loses ONLY to us to finish 10-6, and Tennessee finishes with one or more losses to finish no better than 10-6.

in a three-team tiebreaker, the FIRST tiebreaker is
1- Head to Head. We'd win this tiebreaker by beating Cleveland.. (Tenn doesn't play either team)

We'd also make the playoffs if we win out, and Tennesee loses two of their last four games.

The Titans have a tough final month, so one or more losses is certainly possible.

They finish with:
San Diego
@ Kansas City
New York Jets
@ Indy

(Having Pitt stay within 1 game of Indy going into the final week would certainly help the Bills cause, as INdy would need to win that game in Week 17)

At any rate, as of right now we are very much still alive; but we MUST win all four of our remaining games.

[BillyT92679]

Good pickup!

[The Answer]

Jax is most likely a lock, already beat us anyway - so there's one spot left we are jockeying for.

Ten still has a game at Indy and next week at home against the chargers and a suddenly resurgent LT (have to figure they will lose at Indy no matter what bringing them to 6 losses)

Cle goes to NY to face a jets team that has won 2 of 3, then they have us. This is a must win for us no matter which way you slice it.

With The Young Gun getting better and better it's going to be hard for any team to beat us down the stretch - Look out because we are about to get real hot and if we run the table we are truly in control of our own destiny this time....

~The Answer

[Mitchy moo]

The Indy game sounds tough but it may end up being a meaningless game to them because of their win today. They look like a lock for 2nd place in the AFC.

[patmoran2006]

Jax is most likely a lock, already beat us anyway - so there's one spot left we are jockeying for.

Ten still has a game at Indy and next week at home against the chargers and a suddenly resurgent LT (have to figure they will lose at Indy no matter what bringing them to 6 losses)

Cle goes to NY to face a jets team that has won 2 of 3, then they have us. This is a must win for us no matter which way you slice it.

With The Young Gun getting better and better it's going to be hard for any team to beat us down the stretch - Look out because we are about to get real hot and if we run the table we are truly in control of our own destiny this time....

~The Answer
I didn't count Jacksonville, because we're not catching them. Our realistic hope by winning out is taking the second spot from Cleveland and Tennessee. Arizona did us a HUGE favor by beating the Browns today, which gives us the chance to win a tiebreaker over them now should we win out.

As outlined before, Tenn has to lose at least one game to finish no better than 10-6, and if they do and we finish tied (should we win out) based on tiebreaker #3 (common games) we would beat them, 2-2 vs 2-3.

The Browns we'd obviously beat on tiebreaker one (head to head) and Tenn didn't play either of us, which would eliminate Cleveland, bring it down to us and Tenn, and we'd win that tiebreaker too (see above

It's basically going to take TWO thing to make the playoffs for Buffalo
1- Win the last four games
2- Tenn losses at least one of their last four.

[chubluv]

This is what its all about. :cheers:

[patmoran2006]

Here is for the "drunk with optimism" Bills fan.

We "technically" could still make the playoffs even if we lost to Cleveland in two weeks, won the other three and finished 9-7.

But for that to happen:
Cleveland would have to lose ALL three of their other remaining games(@ Jets, @ Cinci, at home vs SF) and finish 8-8.

Tenn would have to lose at least TWO of their last four games (SD, @KC, NYJ, @ INdy) to finish 9-7 (We'd still beat them in a tiebreaker #3 record vs common opponents)

Denver and Houston would have to lose at least one more game (they'd only be able to finish at best 8-8)

I suppose even this is possible; though I dont see ANY WAY the Browns lose ALL three of those games to scrub teams, so we basically better win out or we're done.

[YardRat]

Take care of our own business and let the chips fall where they may.

Next up...Miami.

[patmoran2006]

Last scenario (yes, pain in the ass but at least you're getting some facts from me today)

We lose ONE of our last four, but it ISNT to Cleveland.. And we finish 9-7.

Clev would then have to win ALL three of their other games (@Jets, @ Cinci, SF) to finish better than us at 10-6. So if they lost ONE of those games, they'd finish 9-7 and be down to us on a tiebreaker still.

Tenn would still have to lose 2 of 4 to finish no better than 9-7 and the tiebreaker would be the same as the above mentioning, we'd beat them to.

Den would have to lose ONE game over their last four, and Houston couldn't catch us if we win 3 of four including a win over Cleveland.

Holy ****, we are still in this. And the last three games are all tough, but all winnable.

[patmoran2006]

here is the playoff tiebreaker format.
http://football.about.com/cs/football101/a/nfl_tiebreakers.htm

[Oaf]

At 9-7, we'd lose tiebreakers to Den and Hou?

Say we win against Cleveland, but drop one against an NFC opponent in the Eagles or Giants, would that be better?

[Oaf]

Ah, you answered it before I could finish typing my question. :up:

That last one seems a little bit more realistic to me for some reason.

[Mitchy moo]

At 9-7, we'd lose tiebreakers to Den and Hou?

Say we win against Cleveland, but drop one against an NFC opponent in the Eagles or Giants, would that be better?

That would be better for conference record but not common opponents.

[patmoran2006]

If Tenn wins out it doesnt matter what we do.

If they lose one game, at best they could only match our conference record. We'll win a tiebreaker over Tenn if it comes down to the two of us. We'll also own a tiebreaker with Cleveland.. IF we beat them.

[Tatonka]

and all of this to get into the playoffs and play new england.. haha.

[patmoran2006]

LOL.

Nope. If everything went near-perfect and we got that sixth spot, we'd play the #3 team in the wild card round, which would almost certainly be the Pittsburgh Steelers.

[Johnny Bugmenot]

LOL.

Nope. If everything went near-perfect and we got that sixth spot, we'd play the #3 team in the wild card round, which would almost certainly be the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Rematch! Yes! This time with Edwards at the helm, baby...

...but I am getting way too far ahead of myself. We have to go on a 4-game hot streak for that to happen first.

[patmoran2006]

Rematch! Yes! This time with Edwards at the helm, baby...

...but I am getting way too far ahead of myself. We have to go on a 4-game hot streak for that to happen first.
Not necessarily, but probable.

LIke I said, we can still lose one more game and still have a chance.

if that loss is to Cleveland, they have to lose their other three games (very unlikely) and Tenn would have to lose 2 of their last four, and Denver would have to lose one game.

If that loss is to someone other than Cleveland, Clev would have to lose 1 of their other three and Tenn would still have to lose 2 of their last four, and Denver would have to lose at least one game to.

The Cleveland game is HUGE. Well, they all are.. But especially Cleveland.

The Browns are in the drivers seat with us. They got us at home, that's what you ask for if your a Browns fan.

[clumping platelets]

We must first :squish:

[patmoran2006]

Pitt winning tonight would help out Buffalo in terms that it would keep them close to Indy, increasing the likelyhood that Indy would have to play its starters in week 17 vs the Titans to ensure the #2 seed.

[patmoran2006]

We must first :squish:

Agreed. I'm not predicting we win ANY of our remaining games. I"m just painting the picture to follow along with should we continue to roll; and actually illustrating that although unlikely, we could still have a shot even if we only win 3 of 4.

[clumping platelets]

:up:

[tat2dmike77]

Take care of our own business and let the chips fall where they may.

Next up...Miami.

Absolutly

The Bills can't control what other teams do only what the bills can do. If they beat Miami then time to focus on Cleveland. So on and so forth.

[patmoran2006]

Absolutly

The Bills can't control what other teams do only what the bills can do. If they beat Miami then time to focus on Cleveland. So on and so forth.
If we beat Miami and tenn loses to San Diego next week, we won't have to worry about anyone else because we WILL be controlling our own destiny heading into Cleveland.

[MLH]

Unfortunately, the most realistic of your scenarios is incorrect.

In this scenario, (a three way tie between Tennessee, Buffalo, and Cleveland at 10-6) even though we would individually have the tiebreaker over both Cleveland and Tennessee, we would miss the playoffs due to a poor Strength of Victory. (Obviously, SOV changes, but considering how far behind TEN we are and that one our future "wins" will be Miami, there's no way to catch them.) The head-to-head tiebreaker only applies if all three teams played each other.

Here are the current SOV number:

Bills 19-52 (.268)
Titans 35-49 (.417)
Browns 28-54 (.341)

[MLH]

Here's another wacky scenario where we get in:

Buffalo runs the table and goes 10-6.
Cleveland goes 2-2 and goes 9-7.
Tennessee loses to SD and goes 10-6.
Jacksonville goes 2-2 and finishes 10-6.

Clevelands obviously out and we have a three-way tie between Tenn, Jax, and Buffalo. Because they're in the same division, one of Tennessee and Jacksonville automatically is eliminated. In this case, it is Jacksonville because Tenn is 4-2 in their division. The Titans and Bills get the wildcards and the Bills are the 5 seed due to their common games tiebreaker with Tennessee.

[Mitchy moo]

Here's another wacky scenario where we get in:

Buffalo runs the table and goes 10-6.
Cleveland goes 2-2 and goes 9-7.
Tennessee loses to SD and goes 10-6.
Jacksonville goes 2-2 and finishes 10-6.

Clevelands obviously out and we have a three-way tie between Tenn, Jax, and Buffalo. Because they're in the same division, one of Tennessee and Jacksonville automatically is eliminated. In this case, it is Jacksonville because Tenn is 4-2 in their division. The Titans and Bills get the wildcards and the Bills are the 5 seed due to their common games tiebreaker with Tennessee.

That's an acceptable deal for the Bills.

[deepslant]

Guys, Guys, Guys...........Cleveland is in the drivers seat and here's why:

NYJ - beating the phish don't mean much
Buff - only tough game down the stretch
Cinci - DA will throw for 500 yds
SF - Dilfer and co., ouch

Cle 3-1 (loss to buff)

The other two imposters in the race have much more difficult schedule than the browns.

Can the brownies choke?

[m1orenz]

Unfortunately, the most realistic of your scenarios is incorrect.

In this scenario, (a three way tie between Tennessee, Buffalo, and Cleveland at 10-6) even though we would individually have the tiebreaker over both Cleveland and Tennessee, we would miss the playoffs due to a poor Strength of Victory. (Obviously, SOV changes, but considering how far behind TEN we are and that one our future "wins" will be Miami, there's no way to catch them.) The head-to-head tiebreaker only applies if all three teams played each other.

Here are the current SOV number:

Bills 19-52 (.268)
Titans 35-49 (.417)
Browns 28-54 (.341)

so if the bills win out we would need either tennessee to lose 2 of 4 games OR cleveland to lose 1 of 3 games (since bills winning out means they lost that game)?

[MLH]

so if the bills win out we would need either tennessee to lose 2 of 4 games OR cleveland to lose 1 of 3 games (since bills winning out means they lost that game)?
There are three semi-plausible ways for the Bills to make the playoffs.

1) Buffalo runs the table and one of Tennessee or Cleveland finishes 9-7.

2) Buffalo beats Miami, Cleveland and one of the NYG or Philly coupled with both the Titans and Browns also finishing 9-7.

3) Buffalo runs the table, Cleveland finishes 9-7, Tenn loses to any team but Indy, and Jacksonville goes 2-2 (if one of the Jags' losses is to Houston, thean it doesn't matter who Tenn loses to).

[trapezeus]

let's just focus on the fish and great ready to feel good if they win. if not, all these predictions are moot. i have faith, but i am nervous. dolphins are due, just like the patriots are due.

hopefully the good times roll.

[cablesabres68]

Common Games (Minimum of Four)
Tenn and Buffalo have both played Jacksonville, Denver, Cincinnati and the Jets. Tenn is 1-3 currently vs these teams (beat Jags, lost to Jags, Den and Cinci) and they still play the Jets. The BEST they could do is 2-3. The Bills are 2-2 vs those teams (Beat Jets twice, lost to Jags and Denver). They are already in at 2-2. you got one thing wrong we are 3-2 in common opponents we beat jets twice we lost to denver and jax but u forgot we beat cincinati so we are 3-2 against the same opponents

[cablesabres68]

Unfortunately, the most realistic of your scenarios is incorrect.

In this scenario, (a three way tie between Tennessee, Buffalo, and Cleveland at 10-6) even though we would individually have the tiebreaker over both Cleveland and Tennessee, we would miss the playoffs due to a poor Strength of Victory. (Obviously, SOV changes, but considering how far behind TEN we are and that one our future "wins" will be Miami, there's no way to catch them.) The head-to-head tiebreaker only applies if all three teams played each other.

Here are the current SOV number:

Bills 19-52 (.268)
Titans 35-49 (.417)
Browns 28-54 (.341)

Unfortuately your wrong man the bills get in on common opponents minimum for game for your wild card teams rules below


Within a Division
If two teams in the same division finish with identical records, the following tiebreakers will be used, in this order, until a champion is determined.
1. Head-to-Head
2. Division Record
3. Common Games
4. Conference Record
5. Strength of Victory
6. Strength of Schedule
7. Combined Ranking Among Conference Teams (points scored and points allowed)
8. Combined Ranking Among All Teams (points scored and points allowed)
9. Net Points (common games)
10. Net Points (all games)
11. Net Touchdowns (all games)

If three or more teams in the same division finish with identical records, the following tiebreakers will be used, in this order, until a champion is determined.

*If two clubs remain tied after a third is eliminated during any step, the tie breaker reverts to step 1 of the two-team format.

WILD-CARD
If two or more teams finish the season tied for one of the two Wild-Card berths, one of the following scenarios will apply. If the tied teams are from the same division, the divisional tie breaker above is used. If the tied teams are from different divisions, the following tiebreakers are used:

Two Teams
1. Head-to-Head
2. Conference Record
3. Common Games (minimum of four)
4. Strength of Victory
5. Strength of Schedule
6. Combined Ranking Among Conference Teams (points scored and points allowed)
7. Combined Ranking Among All Teams (points scored and points allowed)
8. Net Points (conference games)
9. Net Points (all games)
10. Net Touchdowns (all games)
11. Coin Toss

Three or More Teams
*If two clubs remain tied after a third is eliminated during any step, the tie breaker reverts to step 1 of the two-team format.

Start by eliminating all but the highest ranked club in each division by using the divisional tiebreaker above. After the field has been narrowed to no more than one team from each division, the following tiebreakers are used:
1. Head-to-Head
2. Conference Record
3. Common Games (minimum of four)
4. Strength of Victory
5. Strength of Schedule
6. Combined Ranking Among Conference Teams (points scored and points allowed)
7. Combined Ranking Among All Teams (points scored and points allowed)
8. Net Points (conference games)
9. Net Points (all games)
10. Net Touchdowns (all games)
11. Coin toss

* Wild-Card tie breakers are also used to determine home-field advantage.

[Mr. Pink]

Well things definitely look good for the Bills this week.

They have Miami - winnable.
Titans have SD - SD can and should win.
Browns have NYJ - they should handle the Jets

Making next week's matchup very meaningful for the 6th spot in the AFC.

Whoever of these three teams wins their next 2 will control their destiny.

[Ed]

I don't expect Jax to miss the playoffs, but I wouldn't count them in as a lock just yet. They seem to have done a pretty good job of choking to some bad teams in December the past few years. I wouldn't put it past them to lose 3 of their last 4.

Man, who would have thought after the start we had that we'd actually be playing meaningful games in December. I'm a pretty big optimist, but I definitely thought we were in big trouble after the first Pats game.

[Mitchy moo]

Well things definitely look good for the Bills this week.

They have Miami - winnable.
Titans have SD - SD can and should win.
Browns have NYJ - they should handle the Jets

Making next week's matchup very meaningful for the 6th spot in the AFC.

Whoever of these three teams wins their next 2 will control their destiny.

Simplified, thank you.

[Mr. Pink]

Simplified, thank you.

It's pretty simple...whoever out of the group wins out, they're in.

I still think Cleveland has the inside track due to playing creampuffs like the Jets and 49ers...BUT next week's game vs them is huge.

If we win, we're still alive. If we lose, we're dead.

[Mr. Pink]

BTW I would love for both the Browns and Bills to both make the playoffs...but I just don't see Jacksonville going 2-2 or worse to finish out the season.

[TigerJ]

I'm not worrying about the intricasies of playoff eligibility so much at the moment. If the Bills win out, I think the odds are excellent that they are in the playoffs. If they lose a single game, while they are not mathematically eliminated at the moment, their odds drop to near zero. I take it for granted that Jacksonville is going to be the top seeded wild card, though they are not yet locked in there.

The thing is, I don't hink the Bills are a strong enough team to do anything once they they get in. That could change I suppose if the Bills all of a sudden figure out how to convert redzone positions into touchdowns. I think it would be a nice confirmation tha the Bills are moving in the right direction if the do make the playoffs, but at the moment, I think the Bills' chief concern has to be how to fix the things that still aren't working very well at all.

[MLH]

Unfortuately your wrong man the bills get in on common opponents minimum for game for your wild card teams rules below


No, you're mistaken. The common games have to be common between all three teams tied. In a three-way tie between the Bills, Titans, and Browns at 10-6, the Bills lose on the SOV tiebreaker even though they hold the individual tiebreakers over Tennessee (common games) and Cleveland (head to head).

However, if the three-way tie were to take place at 9-7 (assuming the Bills loss is to an NFC team), Tennessee would be eliminated due to conference record and therefore the Bills indivdual tiebreaker over Cleveland would be meaningful.

[acehole]

and what?

Then?

Do you want to see our no redzone offense in the superbowl with whom? GB? Seatle? Dallas? With this poop through a goose run deffense and we will give them 2 yard more than you need third down pass deffense? With one TD pass in every 20 quarters offense?

No thanks.

This team is not good enough..... QB not withstanding.



(NOTE- this is edited. Originally I said the Bills would lose a tiebreaker down the line to Tennessee. Happily, I was wrong-- read on)

Ok guys. I just finished up the research, and though I wouldn't take it as "official", I'm pretty sure I'm correct. I'm sure some of you will do your own research, so let me me know If I'm incorrect (I'm 99% certain I'm not)

But according to my research, if the Buffalo Bills can win-out in their final four games (And it's certainly possible) then we're only one loss away by Tennesee from having potentially one hell of a tiebreaker.

Now before reading, KEEP IN MIND if we do not win out this doesn't apply, and for all purposes, our season is over. BUT..

If the Bills win out they will finish 10-6. Cleveland is one game ahead of us currently, but if we win out that means they lose to us and can finish no better than 10-6.

If Tennesee loses just ONE of their remaining four games, they can then finish no better than 10-6.

IF the Bills win out, Denver nor any other non-division leading team can catch us (thanks to Denver losing today, that was HUGE).

If we win out and finish tied with Cleveland at 10-6, that will have meant we beat them heads up. If we finish tied with just Cleveland at 10-6, we'd win the tiebreaker because we beat them head to head. If Tennessee loses one more game, we'd also win the first tiebreaker (head to head) because we'd be 1-0 vs Clev and Tenn, while Tenn would be 0-0 and Clev would be 0-1.

For the other scenario; let's say the Bills win out, and Cleveland stumbles and finishes 9-7. Let's say that Tennessee finishes with one more loss and also ends up at 10-6. We'd LOSE the tiebreaker. Here's how:

1- Head to Head (We didnt play each other, that would be void)

2- Conference Record (If we win out, we'll finish 7-5. I've said Tenny has to lose one more game. They're currently 4-4 in conference play. Their last four games all are against AFC teams. if they lose one more game, the best they can do in conference play is also 7-5, so tiebreaker #2 would be void)


If we finished tied with Tennesee, we would WIN a tiebreaker with them, based on TIEBREAKER #3

Common Games (Minimum of Four)
Tenn and Buffalo have both played Jacksonville, Denver, Cincinnati and the Jets. Tenn is 1-3 currently vs these teams (beat Jags, lost to Jags, Den and Cinci) and they still play the Jets. The BEST they could do is 2-3. The Bills are 2-2 vs those teams (Beat Jets twice, lost to Jags and Denver). They are already in at 2-2.

The Bills would BEAT Tenn in a heads-up-tiebreaker based on tiebreaker number three.
=======================================================
HERE is another way the Bills WOULD make the playoffs..

The Bills win out, Cleveland loses ONLY to us to finish 10-6, and Tennessee finishes with one or more losses to finish no better than 10-6.

in a three-team tiebreaker, the FIRST tiebreaker is
1- Head to Head. We'd win this tiebreaker by beating Cleveland.. (Tenn doesn't play either team)

We'd also make the playoffs if we win out, and Tennesee loses two of their last four games.

The Titans have a tough final month, so one or more losses is certainly possible.

They finish with:
San Diego
@ Kansas City
New York Jets
@ Indy

(Having Pitt stay within 1 game of Indy going into the final week would certainly help the Bills cause, as INdy would need to win that game in Week 17)

At any rate, as of right now we are very much still alive; but we MUST win all four of our remaining games.

[Johnny Bugmenot]

and what?

Then?

Do you want to see our no redzone offense in the superbowl with whom? GB? Seatle? Dallas? With this poop through a goose run deffense and we will give them 2 yard more than you need third down pass deffense? With one TD pass in every 20 quarters offense?

No thanks.

This team is not good enough..... QB not withstanding.

Oh, please... you'd rather pass on the playoffs and miss them for the 9th straight year than actually make them for once? Which is more embarrassing-- one bad game or 9 seasons of futility? Ask the Cincinnati Bengals about that one.

Quit crying a river because your boy isn't the starter anymore.

Sour grapes. Nothing more, nothing less.