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So if we beat Miami and SD beats Tennessee, I was thinking that we may have our destiny in our own hands.
If that happens, assuming Cleveland also wins this week, the standings would look like this:
Cleveland 8-5 (6-4)
Buffalo 7-6 (6-5)
Tennessee 7-6 (4-5)
Then assuming the Bills win out and the other two teams do the best they can, Tennessee finishing 3-0 and Cleveland 2-1 (loss to Buffalo), the standings would look like this:
Tennessee 10-6 (7-5)
Buffalo 10-6 (7-5)
Cleveland 10-6 (7-5)
When 3 teams are tied, you break any ties within divisions first. Since all 3 teams are in different divisions, this doesn’t matter.
The next tiebreaker is the head to head sweep. This occurs when one team has beat both other teams. In this case, neither Cleveland or Buffalo have played Tennessee. So again, this tiebreaker doesn’t work.
Next tiebreaker is conference record and as you can see, we’d all be tied.
Next tiebreaker would be record vs. common opponents (minimum of 4). Again, there were not 4 common opponents between all 3 teams. So this tiebreaker is again skipped.
Next tiebreaker would be strength of victory. This can change, but based on the assumption that the teams above finished the way I laid it out and working off current W/L records the tiebreaker would work out as such:
Tennessee – 52 wins
Buffalo – 39 wins
Cleveland – 38 wins
Much of the Tennessee strength of victory comes from the fact that we’re assuming that they beat Indy in week 17 (10 wins).
All of that means, that if Tennessee goes 3-1 (losing to SD), Cleveland finishes 3-1 (losing to Buffalo) and we finish 4-0, we would miss out on the last spot.
Of course if Tennessee losses to both SD and Indy and everything else falls into place, they would finish at 9-7 and Buffalo and Cleveland would both finish 10-6 and we’d nail the head to head tiebreaker. (We beat Cleveland in just about every tiebreaker, Head to head, common opponents and strength of victory).
The kicker to this whole thing is that if Cleveland losses another game to finish 9-7, and it’s us and Tennessee at 10-6 (7-5) we’d also beat Tennessee on tiebreaker. Follow me.
Buffalo 10-6 (7-5)
Tennessee 10-6 (7-5)
Cleveland 9-7 (doesn’t matter)
No head to head
Same conf record
Common games as follows:
Tennessee 2-3
Jax – W
Jax – L
Cin – L
Den – L
NYJ – W (assuming)
Buffalo 3-2
Jax – L
Cin – W
Den – L
NYJ – W
NYJ - W
So the kick in the pants is that if we’re head to head with either, team we’d win the tiebreaker.
But if all 3 tie at 10-6, we’d most likely lose.
Now what if all 3 finish 9-7? Please save the “No way 9-7 gets into the playoffs in the AFC!” I think that the only way this works out for us is if we beat Cleveland. So that means that we will have lost to one of the NFC teams we play. Tennessee losses to both Indy and SD (Very possible) and Cleveland goes down to Buffalo and we’ll say one of the road games (at NYJ or at Cin). If this happens, we finish as such:
Buffalo 9-7 (7-5)
Cleveland 9-7 (6-6)
Tennessee 9-7 (6-6)
We would get the spot on straight Conf. Tiebreaker. If course this is only if one of the 5-7 teams doesn’t finish 4-0. Then they’d also finish 9-7 and I’d have to rework the tiebreakers.
If that happens, assuming Cleveland also wins this week, the standings would look like this:
Cleveland 8-5 (6-4)
Buffalo 7-6 (6-5)
Tennessee 7-6 (4-5)
Then assuming the Bills win out and the other two teams do the best they can, Tennessee finishing 3-0 and Cleveland 2-1 (loss to Buffalo), the standings would look like this:
Tennessee 10-6 (7-5)
Buffalo 10-6 (7-5)
Cleveland 10-6 (7-5)
When 3 teams are tied, you break any ties within divisions first. Since all 3 teams are in different divisions, this doesn’t matter.
The next tiebreaker is the head to head sweep. This occurs when one team has beat both other teams. In this case, neither Cleveland or Buffalo have played Tennessee. So again, this tiebreaker doesn’t work.
Next tiebreaker is conference record and as you can see, we’d all be tied.
Next tiebreaker would be record vs. common opponents (minimum of 4). Again, there were not 4 common opponents between all 3 teams. So this tiebreaker is again skipped.
Next tiebreaker would be strength of victory. This can change, but based on the assumption that the teams above finished the way I laid it out and working off current W/L records the tiebreaker would work out as such:
Tennessee – 52 wins
Buffalo – 39 wins
Cleveland – 38 wins
Much of the Tennessee strength of victory comes from the fact that we’re assuming that they beat Indy in week 17 (10 wins).
All of that means, that if Tennessee goes 3-1 (losing to SD), Cleveland finishes 3-1 (losing to Buffalo) and we finish 4-0, we would miss out on the last spot.
Of course if Tennessee losses to both SD and Indy and everything else falls into place, they would finish at 9-7 and Buffalo and Cleveland would both finish 10-6 and we’d nail the head to head tiebreaker. (We beat Cleveland in just about every tiebreaker, Head to head, common opponents and strength of victory).
The kicker to this whole thing is that if Cleveland losses another game to finish 9-7, and it’s us and Tennessee at 10-6 (7-5) we’d also beat Tennessee on tiebreaker. Follow me.
Buffalo 10-6 (7-5)
Tennessee 10-6 (7-5)
Cleveland 9-7 (doesn’t matter)
No head to head
Same conf record
Common games as follows:
Tennessee 2-3
Jax – W
Jax – L
Cin – L
Den – L
NYJ – W (assuming)
Buffalo 3-2
Jax – L
Cin – W
Den – L
NYJ – W
NYJ - W
So the kick in the pants is that if we’re head to head with either, team we’d win the tiebreaker.
But if all 3 tie at 10-6, we’d most likely lose.
Now what if all 3 finish 9-7? Please save the “No way 9-7 gets into the playoffs in the AFC!” I think that the only way this works out for us is if we beat Cleveland. So that means that we will have lost to one of the NFC teams we play. Tennessee losses to both Indy and SD (Very possible) and Cleveland goes down to Buffalo and we’ll say one of the road games (at NYJ or at Cin). If this happens, we finish as such:
Buffalo 9-7 (7-5)
Cleveland 9-7 (6-6)
Tennessee 9-7 (6-6)
We would get the spot on straight Conf. Tiebreaker. If course this is only if one of the 5-7 teams doesn’t finish 4-0. Then they’d also finish 9-7 and I’d have to rework the tiebreakers.
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