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I know there has been a ton of threads and speculation about the playoff race and potential tiebreakers. But let me clear it up right now and make this the "official" tiebreaker thread.
If the Bills win out, and they finished tied with either Cleveland OR Tennessee. The Bills will WIN in a two team tiebreaker. They would beat the Browns based on head-to-head, and they would beat the Titans based on "record vs common opponents"
If the Bills win out, and they finished tied three ways with BOTH Cleveland AND Tennessee. THe Bills would MISS the playoffs and the Titans will win the 3-team tiebreaker. The first three tiebreakers (head to head, conference record, common opponents) would be void, and the Titans would win based on "strength of victory"
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From Jerry Sullivan
Now that the Bills have a legtimate chance at the playoffs, we might as well review the potential wild card tiebreakers. I'm sure I won't cover every possible scenario, but for now let's limit ourselves to possible tiebreakers if the Bills win their last three games. For purposes of this discussion, we'll assume Jacksonville doesn't lose two out of three and fall onto the 10-6 bubble.
1. Bills win out, Tennessee loses at least one game. Bills finish tied with Browns at 10-6. Bills win on first two-team tiebreaker, head to head. That one's easy.
2. Bills and Tennesee win out, Browns lose twice, Bills tie with Tennessee at 10-6. Since they don't play each other and aren't in the same division, first tiebreaker is record in the conference. The Bills are 6-5 in the AFC with one game left. We're assuming a win over Cleveland, so that's 7-5. The Titans are 4-5 in the conference, so if both teams win out, they'll be tied in AFC play at 7-5. That means we go to the next tiebreaker -- winning percentage against common opponents, minimum of four common games. Their common opponents are Jacksonville, Denver, Cincinnati and the Jets. The Bills are 3-2 in those games, counting the Jets twice. Tennesee is 1-3 in common games, with the Jets remaining. So the Bills would go. Clearly, they get an advantage in common games because they played the Jets twice and the Titans had two games with Jacksonville, a tougher opponent, and split. The Titans hurt themselves by losing to the Bengals.
Confused yet?
3. Bills beat Cleveland and both finish in 3-way tie with Tennessee at 10-6: Best record within the conference determines who goes. All three would finish 7-5 in the conference. The teams do not have four common opponents. The next tiebreaker would be strength of victory. The Bills would be in trouble there. The record of their first seven victims is 21-70. Tennessee has beaten only one team (Jacksonville) with a winning record, but their seven wins are over teams with a 38-51 record. Cleveland has only one win over a team with a winning record (Seattle), and its eight victims are 34-60. Pretty weak, but better than the Bills.
Actuallly, if the Bills win out their strength of victory could pass the Browns. But there's no way they could have a better strength of victory than Tennesee in a three-way tie at 10-6. So Tennessee would get the sixth spot in that scenario.
I don't have the energy to go into the other possibilities. What if the Bills, Titans and Browns all go 8-8? What about Houston and Denver? They're still alive at 6-7. You might as well sit back, hope the Bills run the table and the Titans lose. Of course, the Bills could actually make it at 9-7 ... but that's a blog for another day.
If the Bills win out, and they finished tied with either Cleveland OR Tennessee. The Bills will WIN in a two team tiebreaker. They would beat the Browns based on head-to-head, and they would beat the Titans based on "record vs common opponents"
If the Bills win out, and they finished tied three ways with BOTH Cleveland AND Tennessee. THe Bills would MISS the playoffs and the Titans will win the 3-team tiebreaker. The first three tiebreakers (head to head, conference record, common opponents) would be void, and the Titans would win based on "strength of victory"
------------------------------------------------------------------------
From Jerry Sullivan
Now that the Bills have a legtimate chance at the playoffs, we might as well review the potential wild card tiebreakers. I'm sure I won't cover every possible scenario, but for now let's limit ourselves to possible tiebreakers if the Bills win their last three games. For purposes of this discussion, we'll assume Jacksonville doesn't lose two out of three and fall onto the 10-6 bubble.
1. Bills win out, Tennessee loses at least one game. Bills finish tied with Browns at 10-6. Bills win on first two-team tiebreaker, head to head. That one's easy.
2. Bills and Tennesee win out, Browns lose twice, Bills tie with Tennessee at 10-6. Since they don't play each other and aren't in the same division, first tiebreaker is record in the conference. The Bills are 6-5 in the AFC with one game left. We're assuming a win over Cleveland, so that's 7-5. The Titans are 4-5 in the conference, so if both teams win out, they'll be tied in AFC play at 7-5. That means we go to the next tiebreaker -- winning percentage against common opponents, minimum of four common games. Their common opponents are Jacksonville, Denver, Cincinnati and the Jets. The Bills are 3-2 in those games, counting the Jets twice. Tennesee is 1-3 in common games, with the Jets remaining. So the Bills would go. Clearly, they get an advantage in common games because they played the Jets twice and the Titans had two games with Jacksonville, a tougher opponent, and split. The Titans hurt themselves by losing to the Bengals.
Confused yet?
3. Bills beat Cleveland and both finish in 3-way tie with Tennessee at 10-6: Best record within the conference determines who goes. All three would finish 7-5 in the conference. The teams do not have four common opponents. The next tiebreaker would be strength of victory. The Bills would be in trouble there. The record of their first seven victims is 21-70. Tennessee has beaten only one team (Jacksonville) with a winning record, but their seven wins are over teams with a 38-51 record. Cleveland has only one win over a team with a winning record (Seattle), and its eight victims are 34-60. Pretty weak, but better than the Bills.
Actuallly, if the Bills win out their strength of victory could pass the Browns. But there's no way they could have a better strength of victory than Tennesee in a three-way tie at 10-6. So Tennessee would get the sixth spot in that scenario.
I don't have the energy to go into the other possibilities. What if the Bills, Titans and Browns all go 8-8? What about Houston and Denver? They're still alive at 6-7. You might as well sit back, hope the Bills run the table and the Titans lose. Of course, the Bills could actually make it at 9-7 ... but that's a blog for another day.
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