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FIRST: I want to make it clear I like TE. I think he can be good. My point is, JP is currently better and TE has done nothing to take his job.
I like to incorporate playing time into some statistical comparisons. For example, you can’t really compare season passing yards for a guy that played one game to a guy that played 16. All you can really do is take the average of the guy with 16 games.
For this reason I will be using the fact JP played approximately 25.58 quarter and TE played approximately 38.42 quarters in many of the stats that follow. It give a more accurate per-game comparison because they split some games.
Many of these aren’t points, just counter points. What I mean is, in some cases the statistical difference isn’t very large. And, probably isn’t worth mentioning. The reason they are mentioned, is because I have heard JP haters use similar concocted “material” against him.
If you want clarification on how something was calculated just ask.
JP didn’t have a good year, but he was clearly the better QB.
JP’s passer rating on year = 76.9
Trent’s passer rating on the year = 70.4
And, I think the two biggest stats are yards per attempt, and competition %. I feel this way, because this is what helps you move the chains.
JP’s = 63.4% , and 6.9 yards per attempt.
TE’ = 56.1%, and 6.1 yards per attempt.
SO much for the “TE is more accurate argument”.
I’ll add another significant stat that keeps D’s honest and moves the chains….
JP rushing yards per game (110 total) = 17.2, and 5.5 per attempt.
TE Rushing yards per game (49 total) = 5.1, and 3.5 per attempt.
JP played better teams
Broken down into quarters, TE’s average opponent had 8.06 wins on the year. JP’s opponents had 8.53 wins on the year. So don’t try this one.
The Bills offense scores more with JP.
Trent (125 pts)= 3.25 per quarter, or 13.0 per game
JP (90 pts) = 3.52 per quarter, or 14.1
Before you say, “what is one point”, I’ll give my answer. Answer: the margin of victory for the Cowboys on Monday night. Besides, I’m not really trying to make a point here. Really just a counter point on the things I have heard.
Lynch’s rushing production with both Qbs:
With JP at QB Lynch’s YPC = 4.3
With TE at QB Lynch’s YPC = 3.8
That is .5 yards. In a game of inches, that in 18 inches for every carry. I speculate that JP’s arm strength and his down field passing threat has a lot to do with this.
JP Played himself out of a job vs. Jacksonville?
JP’s passer rating on year = 76.9
JP’s passer rating in Jags game that got him benched = 67.81
Trent’s passer rating on the year = 70.4
Trent’s passer rating on the year minus his best game = 64.83
So, if you take out Trent’s one good game verse the worst team in the league, his passer rating in 2.98 points lower then the game that got JP benched. And, if you count it, his passer rating is only 2.59 points higher then the game that got JP benched but still 6.5 points lower then JP’s on the year not taking out any bad games. Complicated?
I‘ll say it another way. Trent’s combined 34.42 quarters (his year minus the one game) QB rating is worst then the 4 quarters that got JP benched. Plus I will add that A-train got the start in Jacksonville. I think that is worth three points right there.
Win and Losses are all that matters.
Before you say “wins and losses mean everything“, all I can say is let me know when Trent starts returning punts. Or starts on defense. Wins is a team stat. Not a QB stat.
But, while we are on the subject, be objective. Trent played the first game against the Pats. And JP won the game against the Jets. You can’t use the argument “JP got the reps all week for the Pats”, then turn around and say “the Jets game planned for TE all week”. Because the opposite could be said in both cases.
That puts JP at 3-4, and TE at 4-5. What do you think JP’s record projects out to if he were to have started two more games? The same as TE. Again, not that it matters because I don’t think QB was the main problem.
So, how about money time?
Trent 4th quarter QB rating = 34.2
JP 4th quarter QB rating = 86.1
Shocking?
Arm Strength?
Isn’t this a significant trait to have for quarter backing in Buffalo at the Ralph? With the winds? JP’s football fast ball was clocked higher than TE's at the combine, but did you really need to know that? I think it is obvious JP has more zip.
TE completed a long ball to Lee against the Ravens. The ball started at the Buffalo 29 yard line. It hit Lee at the 34. The ball flew 37 yards in the air from the line of scrimmage. That was his second longest completed throw, and it was a little wobbly and short. His longest was against the ‘Fins. It flew 42 yards from the line of scrimmage. JP has accomplished greater feats several times. Most notably his 45 yards from the line of scrimmage against the Texans in ’06, while being hit by three Texans as he threw. Or the 42 yards from the LOS to Lee against the Jets this year, into 28 MPH winds. These are off the top of my head.
TE is better at moving the chains?
How is that even possible? JP completes a higher % of passes, and he gets more yards per attempt. Also Lynch runs for more yards per carry when JP hands him the ball.
JP’s third down QB rating = 71.8
TE’s third down QB rating = 56.1
And, we all know who is more likely to run for a first down. JP.
Game Plans and coaching favored TE, but now we are getting a new OC.
The game plans were called to Trent’s strengths when he was starting. And, the game plans were called to Trent’s strengths when JP was starting.
We hired Mike Martz’s assistant. We had speed at wide out. We drafted a receiving RB. We got rid of the smash mouth FB. We added an H-back, which is basically a FB that never carries the ball. We had a strong armed mobile QB.
Then we decided to dink and dunk with the rookie QB? It makes zero sense.
Trent is younger, so he should start?
Why? He is only two years younger. What ever happened to experience being a good thing?
Wouldn’t the argument that TE is younger be in favor of JP? We have had him for a while. We have endured learning curve. And, when he is about to start fulfilling potential you want to get rid of him? Or start him on a BS game by game basis? I’m not saying TE has reached his potential, that would be dumb. But with a QB with as much drive, grit, integrity, desire, fire, passion, respect, work ethic, determination, confidence, and physical tools as Losman has, you can’t dump him now for a complete unproven.
If you think Trent will be better some day, fine. Just wait until he is before you start him. Especially while we are trying to make a playoff run.
But TE is Poised
Poise? That’s your argument? “He looks poised”? Who cares how he looks? Looking poised = nothing.
Closing argument
TE's numbers aren't bad for a young rookie. But, he didn't come close to lighten things up. He didn't do anything to take the job from the team captain we have been putting though countless hardships, twisted a tweaked since he was drafted. Especially not when JP's body of work has consistently improved since breaking his leg as a rookie.
He has had less then two years worth of playing time (under 128 quarters played). Why would any bills fan want to toss him right when we are about to see the fruits of our labor? All that money you spent on tickets? Gone. It is the most important positions of the team. Why would you want to start over. We've been rebuilding for a decade, I thought we were building now.
JP has continuously said, "We can win with the guys we have here right now". Continuity breeds consistency. The only thing consistent about JP’s career so far is there has been no continuity.
I’d like to add that although all these stats are in JP’s favor, Trent has had the privilege/benefit of working with a more gelled line, and players more familiar with what is going on this year. 8.33 quarters for JP followed by 18.42 quarters TE. Then 17.25 quarters JP, followed by 20 quarters TE.
Bottomline: The offense produced no better with TE. I think JP was benched so Fairchild and Co. could have a scapegoat. At the time, it looked like the Bills where in no way a playoff team. So maybe JP's contract escalators played in also.
I had in mind to put up more stats. After all, the off season isn't going away any time soon. It is getting late, but I could have taken months to do this.
Basically I can put up a gazillion stats/number and have put up many. Your a Bills fan (well except for one closet Bills fan who thinks he likes the Dolphins, LOL), I'm a Bills fan. I don’t think I changed anyone’s mind, but I feel better. If you got this far, thanks for listening.
Feel free to respond. I’m not advocating you criticize, but if you do so adult like, I can take it. If you agree, all the better.
I like to incorporate playing time into some statistical comparisons. For example, you can’t really compare season passing yards for a guy that played one game to a guy that played 16. All you can really do is take the average of the guy with 16 games.
For this reason I will be using the fact JP played approximately 25.58 quarter and TE played approximately 38.42 quarters in many of the stats that follow. It give a more accurate per-game comparison because they split some games.
Many of these aren’t points, just counter points. What I mean is, in some cases the statistical difference isn’t very large. And, probably isn’t worth mentioning. The reason they are mentioned, is because I have heard JP haters use similar concocted “material” against him.
If you want clarification on how something was calculated just ask.
JP didn’t have a good year, but he was clearly the better QB.
JP’s passer rating on year = 76.9
Trent’s passer rating on the year = 70.4
And, I think the two biggest stats are yards per attempt, and competition %. I feel this way, because this is what helps you move the chains.
JP’s = 63.4% , and 6.9 yards per attempt.
TE’ = 56.1%, and 6.1 yards per attempt.
SO much for the “TE is more accurate argument”.
I’ll add another significant stat that keeps D’s honest and moves the chains….
JP rushing yards per game (110 total) = 17.2, and 5.5 per attempt.
TE Rushing yards per game (49 total) = 5.1, and 3.5 per attempt.
JP played better teams
Broken down into quarters, TE’s average opponent had 8.06 wins on the year. JP’s opponents had 8.53 wins on the year. So don’t try this one.
The Bills offense scores more with JP.
Trent (125 pts)= 3.25 per quarter, or 13.0 per game
JP (90 pts) = 3.52 per quarter, or 14.1
Before you say, “what is one point”, I’ll give my answer. Answer: the margin of victory for the Cowboys on Monday night. Besides, I’m not really trying to make a point here. Really just a counter point on the things I have heard.
Lynch’s rushing production with both Qbs:
With JP at QB Lynch’s YPC = 4.3
With TE at QB Lynch’s YPC = 3.8
That is .5 yards. In a game of inches, that in 18 inches for every carry. I speculate that JP’s arm strength and his down field passing threat has a lot to do with this.
JP Played himself out of a job vs. Jacksonville?
JP’s passer rating on year = 76.9
JP’s passer rating in Jags game that got him benched = 67.81
Trent’s passer rating on the year = 70.4
Trent’s passer rating on the year minus his best game = 64.83
So, if you take out Trent’s one good game verse the worst team in the league, his passer rating in 2.98 points lower then the game that got JP benched. And, if you count it, his passer rating is only 2.59 points higher then the game that got JP benched but still 6.5 points lower then JP’s on the year not taking out any bad games. Complicated?
I‘ll say it another way. Trent’s combined 34.42 quarters (his year minus the one game) QB rating is worst then the 4 quarters that got JP benched. Plus I will add that A-train got the start in Jacksonville. I think that is worth three points right there.
Win and Losses are all that matters.
Before you say “wins and losses mean everything“, all I can say is let me know when Trent starts returning punts. Or starts on defense. Wins is a team stat. Not a QB stat.
But, while we are on the subject, be objective. Trent played the first game against the Pats. And JP won the game against the Jets. You can’t use the argument “JP got the reps all week for the Pats”, then turn around and say “the Jets game planned for TE all week”. Because the opposite could be said in both cases.
That puts JP at 3-4, and TE at 4-5. What do you think JP’s record projects out to if he were to have started two more games? The same as TE. Again, not that it matters because I don’t think QB was the main problem.
So, how about money time?
Trent 4th quarter QB rating = 34.2
JP 4th quarter QB rating = 86.1
Shocking?
Arm Strength?
Isn’t this a significant trait to have for quarter backing in Buffalo at the Ralph? With the winds? JP’s football fast ball was clocked higher than TE's at the combine, but did you really need to know that? I think it is obvious JP has more zip.
TE completed a long ball to Lee against the Ravens. The ball started at the Buffalo 29 yard line. It hit Lee at the 34. The ball flew 37 yards in the air from the line of scrimmage. That was his second longest completed throw, and it was a little wobbly and short. His longest was against the ‘Fins. It flew 42 yards from the line of scrimmage. JP has accomplished greater feats several times. Most notably his 45 yards from the line of scrimmage against the Texans in ’06, while being hit by three Texans as he threw. Or the 42 yards from the LOS to Lee against the Jets this year, into 28 MPH winds. These are off the top of my head.
TE is better at moving the chains?
How is that even possible? JP completes a higher % of passes, and he gets more yards per attempt. Also Lynch runs for more yards per carry when JP hands him the ball.
JP’s third down QB rating = 71.8
TE’s third down QB rating = 56.1
And, we all know who is more likely to run for a first down. JP.
Game Plans and coaching favored TE, but now we are getting a new OC.
The game plans were called to Trent’s strengths when he was starting. And, the game plans were called to Trent’s strengths when JP was starting.
We hired Mike Martz’s assistant. We had speed at wide out. We drafted a receiving RB. We got rid of the smash mouth FB. We added an H-back, which is basically a FB that never carries the ball. We had a strong armed mobile QB.
Then we decided to dink and dunk with the rookie QB? It makes zero sense.
Trent is younger, so he should start?
Why? He is only two years younger. What ever happened to experience being a good thing?
Wouldn’t the argument that TE is younger be in favor of JP? We have had him for a while. We have endured learning curve. And, when he is about to start fulfilling potential you want to get rid of him? Or start him on a BS game by game basis? I’m not saying TE has reached his potential, that would be dumb. But with a QB with as much drive, grit, integrity, desire, fire, passion, respect, work ethic, determination, confidence, and physical tools as Losman has, you can’t dump him now for a complete unproven.
If you think Trent will be better some day, fine. Just wait until he is before you start him. Especially while we are trying to make a playoff run.
But TE is Poised
Poise? That’s your argument? “He looks poised”? Who cares how he looks? Looking poised = nothing.
Closing argument
TE's numbers aren't bad for a young rookie. But, he didn't come close to lighten things up. He didn't do anything to take the job from the team captain we have been putting though countless hardships, twisted a tweaked since he was drafted. Especially not when JP's body of work has consistently improved since breaking his leg as a rookie.
He has had less then two years worth of playing time (under 128 quarters played). Why would any bills fan want to toss him right when we are about to see the fruits of our labor? All that money you spent on tickets? Gone. It is the most important positions of the team. Why would you want to start over. We've been rebuilding for a decade, I thought we were building now.
JP has continuously said, "We can win with the guys we have here right now". Continuity breeds consistency. The only thing consistent about JP’s career so far is there has been no continuity.
I’d like to add that although all these stats are in JP’s favor, Trent has had the privilege/benefit of working with a more gelled line, and players more familiar with what is going on this year. 8.33 quarters for JP followed by 18.42 quarters TE. Then 17.25 quarters JP, followed by 20 quarters TE.
Bottomline: The offense produced no better with TE. I think JP was benched so Fairchild and Co. could have a scapegoat. At the time, it looked like the Bills where in no way a playoff team. So maybe JP's contract escalators played in also.
I had in mind to put up more stats. After all, the off season isn't going away any time soon. It is getting late, but I could have taken months to do this.
Basically I can put up a gazillion stats/number and have put up many. Your a Bills fan (well except for one closet Bills fan who thinks he likes the Dolphins, LOL), I'm a Bills fan. I don’t think I changed anyone’s mind, but I feel better. If you got this far, thanks for listening.
Feel free to respond. I’m not advocating you criticize, but if you do so adult like, I can take it. If you agree, all the better.
" ~ yordad
Give it up. Your dream is dead Draz.
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