Draft Strategy: The Triangle Formula Debunked

[DraftBoy]

Denver is famous for this, its a good read for any draftnik;

http://www.rockymountainnews.com/news/2008/jan/31/krieger-nfls-formula-can-swallow-up-reason/

[mysticsoto]

Denver is famous for this, its a good read for any draftnik;

http://www.rockymountainnews.com/news/2008/jan/31/krieger-nfls-formula-can-swallow-up-reason/

I'm not sure what scouts look for, and no doubt, every scout is different. But me personally, I'd look for type A players. Those are the ones that will not be satisfied with being #2. They'll work hard and they'll work on their own during the offseason. They are self motivated and they want nothing more to succeed.

Now you can't go on that alone b'cse then you get all your Jim Leonards...all heart and brain, but no physical attributes that can help you succeed. Somewhere you have to find the balance...but nevertheless, the type A personality should definitely be a big factor in choosing!!!

[DraftBoy]

I look for the "it" factor

Of course thats probably one of the most ambigous things I could say

[ParanoidAndroid]

Here's my "triangle." Consistent and effective play with steady improvement, intelligence (both football and in general), work ethic. Of course, the last two, I don't often get to see except if it shows up in various scouting reports, but IF I was a scout, I'd look for those as soon as I notice a player on the field doing the right things.

[venis2k1]

Speaking of the Triangle, am i the only one with a hardon for James Hardy??

6'7 220 4.59 forty. over 1000 yards and 16 TDs last year.

[LifetimeBillsFan]

What a tremendous article!!! I've been concerned about players being over rated because of those three physical stats for years.

I can't say exactly what it is that I look for, but I look for players who stand out in games: the guy that you just can't miss seeing or who is all over the field. When I get to see a multiple games that that team plays, I look to see if the player continues to stand out. If I can, I try to see how he does against the best levels of college competition that I can. And take into account any additional information about him that the announcers may offer about him during his games, if any, such as: has he been injured, in trouble, is he a team leader, good student, etc. At that point, I don't even know any of the "triangle" numbers. For the most part, I know only pretty much what my eyes are telling me: sometimes I'll just see a player and he looks like a man playing with boys or another player who is getting a lot of hype because of his size or speed or whatever reason and he may play slow or small or, while he makes plays, when it comes to a point where his team needs a big play, he disappears or it will be someone else that the team goes to consistently, etc.

It's really only when a guy is coming out in the draft, if he plays in an all-star game or goes to The Combine, that I'll see his stats on some draft website and find out what they actually are. If I know what certain offenses or defenses are looking for at a particular position, I will take that into consideration in evaluating those stats--in terms of who, and particularly whether the Bills, will be interested in him to fill a roster need.

As much as I look at his "triangle" stats, though, I will look to see if there is anything said about the player's personal history--anything, no matter what it is. That's the hardest information to come by, but often what determines whether the guy is going to make it in the NFL or not.

And, then, somehow, I try to synthesize all of that in my head and form some opinions.

Because there is so much information about prospects that we, as fans, simply don't know or have access to, I get really angry at fans who "fall in love" with a player that they have seen play a couple of times on TV, think that their team should draft, and get very upset when their team doesn't draft (or later sign as a free agent). Sometimes teams know something about a guy's background that makes them shy away from a player, even if he has the talent to help that team at a give position and become a big-time player--see the story on Jeramy Stevens in the NFLZone. Or, someone on the scouting staff has a bad feeling about a player--see Pioli's comments. We, as fans, aren't privy to all of that information and don't know everything that goes into a given team's evaluation process.

This much I'll say: drafting is as much an art as a science and pure numbers don't tell the whole story.

And, truth be told, I've been as wrong about players as often as I have been right: for every Lee Evans (whose selection surprised me, but I liked), Jerry Rice, Steve McNair and Zach Thomas, there has been at least one big-time bust and someone that I didn't hink would make it who did. So, what do I know...really? :lol:

[LifetimeBillsFan]

Speaking of the Triangle, am i the only one with a hardon for James Hardy??

6'7 220 4.59 forty. over 1000 yards and 16 TDs last year.

Hardy scares the hell out of me because I see him being a boom or bust prospect.

Hardy has kind of size/speed combination that could make him an All-Pro, impossible to cover in the red zone. He also has been very inconsistent--absoutely killing some teams and not making much of a difference, especially in the clutch, at other times that I have seen him--and I can't tell how much of that was him and how much of it was the fault of the lousy QB play that his team got. I liked a lot of what I saw of him in some games, but a big red flag went up for me with him when he struggled to get open, especially deep, in his bowl game (I kept looking for him to DO something!). Additionally, big guys like Hardy often struggle with their footwork and route running because of their long strides and take time to learn how to get in and out of their routes properly on the NFL level--Hardy didn't look really smooth with that (which could have been him or the fact that Indiana didn't exactly run the most sophisticated passing game in the NCAA).

Hardy just strikes me as being very raw still, with a lot to learn--somewhat like Eric Moulds when he came out--but I don't know enough about his make-up to know whether he is the kind of guy who will take to coaching at the NFL level and do what it takes to make himself really good (or how long that might take with him).

If Hardy is a determined and quick learner, with his physical gifts, he could be an absolute monster in the NFL. But, the thing that worries me is that he could also take awhile to develop and may end up being a bust. I think whoever drafts him is going to get one or the other, but I just can't make up my mind which. And, his stats only make up part of that equation for me.

[YardRat]

If you're drafting guys based solely on height, weight, and speed you deserve to get burned more often than not. It never ceases to amaze me how ignorant people obtain positions of authority.