FA Projections

[Midwesternbillsfan]

This is merely my opinion of where we might see the top-ranked FA's land; it is based on team needs, cap space, as well as admittedly innuendo/rumors emerging from popular opinion (take that portion for what you will). Eliminated from this list are franchise tag recipients (or inevitably to be recipients): Jared Allen, Asante Samuel, Albert Haynesworth, Nnamdi Asomugha, Karlos Dansby, Dallas Clark, Terrell Suggs, Jordan Gross, and L.J. Smith.

FYI: Miami may have upwards to $40 million to spend under the cap, in part because of their recent cuts- I expect them to make a splash. San Francisco, despite last year's incessant activity, still has around $30 million to play going into the offseason.

Top 40:

1. WR Randy Moss/New England (Projection: Re-signs w/New England Patriots; Signs w/Dallas Cowboys or Philadelphia Eagles)

2. CB Asante Samuel/New England (Projection: Signs w/Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, or Cleveland Browns)

3. OLB Lance Briggs/Chicago (Projection: Signs w/San Francisco 49ers or Miami Dolphins; re-signs w/Chicago Bears)

4. CB Marcus Trufant/Seattle (Projection: Signs w/Dallas Cowboys, New York Jets, or Tennnessee Titans)

5. G Alan Faneca/Pittsburgh (Projection: Signs w/Chicago Bears, Arizona Cardinals, or St. Louis Rams)

6. RB Jamal Lewis/Cleveland (Projection: Re-signs w/Cleveland Browns; Signs w/Detroit Lions or Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

7. DT Corey Williams/Green Bay (Projection: Signs w/Buffalo Bills, Cleveland Browns, or Denver Broncos)

8. WR Bernard Berrian/Chicago (Projection: Signs w/Oakland Raiders, San Francisco 49ers, or Philadelphia Eagles)

9. RB Michael Turner/San Diego (Projection: Signs w/Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Chicago Bears, or Cleveland Browns)

10. FS Gibril Wilson/New York Giants (Projection: Re-signs w/New York Giants; Signs w/Washington Redskins or Miami Dolphins)

11. FS/SS Ken Hamlin/Dallas (Projection: Signs w/Miami Dolphins, Washington Redskins, or Detroit Lions)

12. T Flozell Adams/Dallas (Projection: Signs w/Miami Dolphins or Houston Texans; Re-signs w/Dallas Cowboys)

13. WR D.J. Hackett/Seattle (Projection: Signs w/Philadelphia Eagles or San Francisco 49ers; Re-signs w/Seattle Seahawks)

14. G Jacob Bell/Tennessee (Re-signs w/Tennessee Titans; Signs w/Houston Texans or Kansas City Chiefs)

15. K Josh Brown/Seattle (Projection: Re-signs w/Seattle Seahawks)

16. T Sean Locklear/Seattle (Signs w/New York Jets, Atlanta Falcons, or Pittsburgh Steelers)

17. DE Antwan Odom/Tennessee (Re-signs w/Tennessee Titans; Signs w/Jacksonville Jaguars or Cleveland Browns)

18. WR Donte Stallworth/New England (assuming option not picked up): (Projection: Signs w/Minnesota Vikings, Tennessee Titans, or Cleveland Browns)

19. DE Justin Smith/Cincinnati (Projection: Signs w/Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, or Minnesota Vikings)

20. OLB Kawika Mitchell/New York Giants (Projection: Signs w/Detroit Lions or Denver Broncos; Re-signs w/New York Giants)

21. OLB Calvin Pace/Arizona (Projection: Signs w/San Francisco 49ers, New York Jets, or Cleveland Browns)

22. G Ryan Lilja/Indianapolis (Projection: Signs w/Houston Texans, New York Jets, or St. Louis Rams)

23. C Jeff Faine/New Orleans (Projection: Re-signs w/New Orleans Saints; Signs w/Kansas City Chiefs or Pittsburgh Steelers)

24. TE Alge Crumpler/Atlanta (Projection: Signs w/Seattle Seahawks, New Orleans Saints, or Buffalo Bills)

25. WR Jerry Porter/Oakland (Projection: Signs w/Chicago Bears, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, or Jacksonville Jaguars)

26. CB Randall Gay/New England (Projection: Signs w/New York Jets or Tennessee Titans; Re-signs with New England Patriots)

27. G Rex Hadnot/Miami (Projection: Signs w/New Orleans Saints or Kansas City Chiefs; Re-signs w/Miami Dolphins)

28. DE Greg White/Tampa Bay (Projection: Signs w/Philadelphia Eagles, Minnesota Vikings, or Cincinnati Bengals)

29. OT Stacy Andrews/Cincinnati (Projection: Signs w/Pittsburgh Steelers, St. Louis Rams, New York Jets)

30. CB Drayton Florence/San Diego (Projection: Signs w/Kansas City Chiefs, Houston Texans, or New England Patriots)

31. WR Bryant Johnson/Arizona (Projection: Signs w/Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills, or Pittsburgh Steelers)

32. WR Justin Gage/Tennessee (Projection: Re-signs w/Tennessee Titans; Signs w/Buffalo Bills or Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

33. FS/CB Eugene Wilson/New England (Projection: Re-signs w/New England Patriots; Signs w/New York Jets, or Chicago Bears)

34. DT Tommy Kelly/Oakland (Projection: Signs w/San Francisco 49ers or Cleveland Browns; re-signs w/Oakland Raiders)

35. RB Julius Jones/Dallas (Projection: Signs w/Miami Dolphins, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, or Detroit Lions)

36. FB Tony Richardson/Minnesota (Projection: Re-signs w/Minnesota Vikings)

37. OLB Boss Bailey/Detroit (Projection: Signs w/Denver Broncos, New Orleans Saints, or Buffalo Bills)

38. DE Travis Laboy/Tennessee (Projection: Signs w/Cincinnati Bengals, Minnesota Vikings, or Jacksonville Jaguars)

39. WR Ernest Wilford/Jacksonville (Projection: Re-signs w/Jacksonville Jaguars; Signs w/Buffalo Bills or Minnesota Vikings)

40. QB Rex Grossman/Chicago (Projection: Re-signs w/Chicago Bears; Signs w/Tampa Bay Buccaneers or Minnesota Vikings)

[kernowboy]

I think more of the players will resign with their teams

for example the Titans are more likely to keep Odom than go after Smith

[DraftBoy]

Like the Williams signing, not big on Wilford but I can live with that one

[Midwesternbillsfan]

I think more of the players will resign with their teams

for example the Titans are more likely to keep Odom than go after Smith

Once players hit the market, obviously the likelihood of them re-signing signficantly diminishes. The Titans are in an interesting position this offseason. While they have nearly $40 million in cap space, quite of a few of the most prominent FA's on the market (Antwan Odom, Jacob Bell, and even slightly lesser FA's like Travis Laboy and Justin Gage) are already Titans. I think they try to keep their very talented offensive line intact by re-signing Bell and restricted free agent RT David Stewart. I also believe they manage to re-sign Gage (if they don't, the Bills might have sufficient interest).

Odom, however, is a different story; he'll be in a for a big payday- despite just one truly good season and being surrounded by Vandenbosch and Haynesworth- and while the Titans are interested in keeping him, they might decide to let him make this $7-8 million annually elsewhere and instead add Justin Smith for slightly lesser money. Smith is nothing special; he only had 2 sacks last year, in fact. But before that, he was a consistent 7-8 sack a year DE. Given the talent that would be surrounding him in Tennessee, he could very conceivably at least return to that form. Even 8 sacks would match Odom's "breakout" year in '07, so Smith does offer dependability and consistency, if not flashiness.

[Midwesternbillsfan]

Like the Williams signing, not big on Wilford but I can live with that one

I'd rather sign Corey Williams and then D.J. Hackett; Bryant Johnson would be a palatable second option after Hackett, though I have my doubts that he's more intrigue than substance. But still, if the Bills did pony up the dough for Williams- and I am going to go out on a limb this offseason and predict that they do- they might decide to sign Wilford at $3-4 million per is a better option than Hackett or Johnson at $5-6 million a season.

[Midwesternbillsfan]

I provided few reasons for these FA destinations; I will go back and add the justification behind the selections.

[kernowboy]

I think with a number of talented DTs in the draft we may look to use the Draft route here.

Also I think there are several LBs we could target.

I think we'll have a look for a WR but I don't think it will be Wilford. He's never going to be a realistic No2

[Night Train]

I'd rather sign Corey Williams and then D.J. Hackett; Bryant Johnson would be a palatable second option after Hackett, though I have my doubts that he's more intrigue than substance. But still, if the Bills did pony up the dough for Williams- and I am going to go out on a limb this offseason and predict that they do- they might decide to sign Wilford at $3-4 million per is a better option than Hackett or Johnson at $5-6 million a season.

That's waaaaaaaaaay too much $$ for any of those players.

[patmoran2006]

Good post man. Interesting read and i"ll certainly keep tabs on this thread to see where these guys end up. I'd like to add a few comments of my own, randomly.

* I could see the Jets signing Samuel before Miami. I definitely think he's sticking around this division though.

* I don't think Buffalo is going to pay Corey Williams. We'll get outbid. I think Williams' contract will exceed his value.

* I don't think Tenn will resign Gage. They got so many other players to sign, I think they will keep as much of their defense and OL intact as possible. He'll be gone. Maybe to Buffalo?

* I dont think there is ANY way Lilja doesn't get resigned by Indy.

* Lance Briggs in SF with Patrick Willis would be FILTHY.

* Wouldnt be so sure about Faine resigning with New Orleans. Very solid center don't get me wrong; but they are woeful on defense and most if not all their money could go to that side of the ball. I'd love to see Faine here, but I don't see that happening.

Overall, excellent post, put work into it, look forward to seeing how it plays out.


With Buffalo. I think they are going to sign a WR for sure. Wilford, Gage, Johnston and Hackett are the candidates. I will be very unhappy if it's anyone else.

I also think, in fact I'd be willing to wager they sign a TE.. Ben Utect and Eric Johnson are the prime candidates (I hope)

They may get some lesser-known players defensively at LB and maybe DT.

I think the draft is HUGE for us again this year. Of course, that goes without saying. I dont like to "project" draft picks in mid-February, but Malcomb Kelly sure sounds like the logical choice. Evans/One of those FA's/Kelly/ Utect or Johnson with Lynch gives Buffalo plenty of talent offensively.

[patmoran2006]

Buffalo doesn't need a "marqee" WR. I think if the team gets a better TE and #2 WR around EVans, it eliminates the barrages of double teams, and Evans will have more room to do his thing.. I still believe Evans is a #1 WR.

[Midwesternbillsfan]

That's waaaaaaaaaay too much $$ for any of those players.

It might be the market, man; I'm not saying that I would agree with it. Fortunately, maybe Patrick Crayton's modest 4-year, $14 million dollar contract will set the market at a rational level. But I for one wouldn't be surprised if Bryant Johnson or D.J. Hackett receive a contract starting at $5 million a season; not at all. The money is free-flowing (sometimes everywhere but Buffalo, it seems).

[!Papacrunk!]

great list Midwest!

[Midwesternbillsfan]

Good post man. Interesting read and i"ll certainly keep tabs on this thread to see where these guys end up. I'd like to add a few comments of my own, randomly.

* I could see the Jets signing Samuel before Miami. I definitely think he's sticking around this division though.

* I don't think Buffalo is going to pay Corey Williams. We'll get outbid. I think Williams' contract will exceed his value.

* I don't think Tenn will resign Gage. They got so many other players to sign, I think they will keep as much of their defense and OL intact as possible. He'll be gone. Maybe to Buffalo?

* I dont think there is ANY way Lilja doesn't get resigned by Indy.

* Lance Briggs in SF with Patrick Willis would be FILTHY.

* Wouldnt be so sure about Faine resigning with New Orleans. Very solid center don't get me wrong; but they are woeful on defense and most if not all their money could go to that side of the ball. I'd love to see Faine here, but I don't see that happening.

Overall, excellent post, put work into it, look forward to seeing how it plays out.


With Buffalo. I think they are going to sign a WR for sure. Wilford, Gage, Johnston and Hackett are the candidates. I will be very unhappy if it's anyone else.

I also think, in fact I'd be willing to wager they sign a TE.. Ben Utect and Eric Johnson are the prime candidates (I hope)

They may get some lesser-known players defensively at LB and maybe DT.

I think the draft is HUGE for us again this year. Of course, that goes without saying. I dont like to "project" draft picks in mid-February, but Malcomb Kelly sure sounds like the logical choice. Evans/One of those FA's/Kelly/ Utect or Johnson with Lynch gives Buffalo plenty of talent offensively.

Thanks, Pat. I am actually going to scrap a part of the initial post- sorry for the long read (I'm afraid others will be discouraged from reading something that long)- and replace the explanations/justifications with expanded possibilities for these guys. I am going to place the three seemingly most logical or practical places they'll end up playing in '08. Like you, I don't think that Samuels leaves the division. The Jets will have interest and cap room; the Dolphins certainly have cap room and the need. One of the two AFC East teams I ironically don't think he'll end up with next year is his own team, New England. Their money is limited and will be effectively wiped out after retaining Moss. I'd rather they lose Moss than Samuels but still, nobody can convince me this offseason will be produce a team as talented in New England in 2008 as the one that they assembled for 2007.

[Midwesternbillsfan]

POSTED 12:24 p.m. EST, February 18, 2008

BENGALS TAG ANDREWS

The Cincinnati Bengals have applied the franchise tag (http://www.bengals.com/news/news.asp?story_id=6645) to offensive lineman Stacy Andrews.

Andrews has four years of NFL service, and started games last season at guard and tackle. He'll receive the offensive lineman tender of $7.5 million. That number is based on the five highest-paid offensive linemen in 2007.

If Andrews signs the tender, the salary becomes fully guaranteed. The tender can be rescinded by the Bengals at any time before it is signed.

The Bengals used the non-exclusive version of the tag, which allows Andrews to negotiate with other teams. If he signs an offer sheet elsewhere that the Bengals choose not to match, the Bengals will receive two first-round draft picks.

The move also means that Bengals defensive end Justin Smith, the team's franchise player last year, will hit the market on February 29. At most, the Bengals can restrict Smith via the transition tag, which gives the team only a right to match any offer that Smith receives on the open market.

[Midwesternbillsfan]

Updated (02/18/08):

This is merely my opinion of where we might see the top-ranked FA's land; it is based on team needs, cap space, as well as admittedly innuendo/rumors emerging from popular opinion (take that portion for what you will). Eliminated from this list are franchise tag recipients (or inevitably to be recipients): Jared Allen, Asante Samuel, Albert Haynesworth, Nnamdi Asomugha, Karlos Dansby, Dallas Clark, Terrell Suggs, Jordan Gross, L.J. Smith, and Stacy Andrews.

Top 40:

1. WR Randy Moss/New England (Projection: Re-signs w/New England Patriots; Signs w/Dallas Cowboys or Philadelphia Eagles)

2. CB Asante Samuel/New England (Projection: Signs w/Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, or Cleveland Browns)

3. OLB Lance Briggs/Chicago (Projection: Signs w/San Francisco 49ers or Miami Dolphins; re-signs w/Chicago Bears)

4. CB Marcus Trufant/Seattle (Projection: Signs w/Dallas Cowboys, New York Jets, or Tennnessee Titans)

5. G Alan Faneca/Pittsburgh (Projection: Signs w/Chicago Bears, Arizona Cardinals, or St. Louis Rams)

6. RB Jamal Lewis/Cleveland (Projection: Re-signs w/Cleveland Browns; Signs w/Detroit Lions or Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

7. DT Corey Williams/Green Bay (Projection: Signs /Cleveland Browns, Buffalo Bills, or Denver Broncos)

8. WR Bernard Berrian/Chicago (Projection: Signs w/Oakland Raiders, San Francisco 49ers, or Philadelphia Eagles)

9. RB Michael Turner/San Diego (Projection: Signs w/Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Chicago Bears, or Cleveland Browns)

10. FS Gibril Wilson/New York Giants (Projection: Re-signs w/New York Giants; Signs w/Washington Redskins or Miami Dolphins)

11. FS/SS Ken Hamlin/Dallas (Projection: Signs w/Miami Dolphins, Washington Redskins, or Detroit Lions)

12. T Flozell Adams/Dallas (Projection: Signs w/Miami Dolphins or Houston Texans; Re-signs w/Dallas Cowboys)

13. WR D.J. Hackett/Seattle (Projection: Signs w/Philadelphia Eagles or San Francisco 49ers; Re-signs w/Seattle Seahawks)

14. G Jacob Bell/Tennessee (Re-signs w/Tennessee Titans; Signs w/Houston Texans or Kansas City Chiefs)

15. K Josh Brown/Seattle (Projection: Re-signs w/Seattle Seahawks)

16. T Sean Locklear/Seattle (Signs w/New York Jets, Atlanta Falcons, or Pittsburgh Steelers)

17. DE Antwan Odom/Tennessee (Re-signs w/Tennessee Titans; Signs w/Jacksonville Jaguars or Cleveland Browns)

18. WR Donte Stallworth/New England (assuming option not picked up): (Projection: Signs w/Minnesota Vikings, Tennessee Titans, or Cleveland Browns)

19. DE Justin Smith/Cincinnati (Projection: Signs w/Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, or Minnesota Vikings)

20. OLB Kawika Mitchell/New York Giants (Projection: Signs w/Detroit Lions or Denver Broncos; Re-signs w/New York Giants)

21. OLB Calvin Pace/Arizona (Projection: Signs w/San Francisco 49ers, New York Jets, or Cleveland Browns)

22. G Ryan Lilja/Indianapolis (Projection: Signs w/Houston Texans, New York Jets, or St. Louis Rams)

23. C Jeff Faine/New Orleans (Projection: Re-signs w/New Orleans Saints; Signs w/Kansas City Chiefs or Pittsburgh Steelers)

24. TE Alge Crumpler/Atlanta (Projection: Signs w/Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, or Seattle Seahawks)

25. WR Jerry Porter/Oakland (Projection: Signs w/Chicago Bears, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, or Jacksonville Jaguars)

26. CB Randall Gay/New England (Projection: Signs w/New York Jets or Tennessee Titans; Re-signs with New England Patriots)

27. G Rex Hadnot/Miami (Projection: Signs w/New Orleans Saints or Kansas City Chiefs; Re-signs w/Miami Dolphins)

28. DE Greg White/Tampa Bay (Projection: Signs w/Philadelphia Eagles, Minnesota Vikings, or Cincinnati Bengals)

29. . CB Drayton Florence/San Diego (Projection: Signs w/Kansas City Chiefs, Houston Texans, or New England Patriots)

30. WR Bryant Johnson/Arizona (Projection: Signs w/Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills, or Pittsburgh Steelers)

31. WR Justin Gage/Tennessee (Projection: Re-signs w/Tennessee Titans; Signs w/Buffalo Bills or Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

32. FS/CB Eugene Wilson/New England (Projection: Re-signs w/New England Patriots; Signs w/New York Jets, or Chicago Bears)

33. DT Tommy Kelly/Oakland (Projection: Signs w/San Francisco 49ers or Cleveland Browns; re-signs w/Oakland Raiders)

34. RB Julius Jones/Dallas (Projection: Signs w/Miami Dolphins, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, or Detroit Lions)

35. FB Tony Richardson/Minnesota (Projection: Re-signs w/Minnesota Vikings)

36. OLB Boss Bailey/Detroit (Projection: Signs w/Denver Broncos, New Orleans Saints, or Buffalo Bills)

37. DE Travis Laboy/Tennessee (Projection: Signs w/Cincinnati Bengals, Minnesota Vikings, or Jacksonville Jaguars)

38. WR Ernest Wilford/Jacksonville (Projection: Signs w/Buffalo Bills or Minnesota Vikings; Re-signs w/Jacksonville)

39. QB Rex Grossman/Chicago (Projection: Re-signs w/Chicago Bears; Signs w/Tampa Bay Buccaneers or Minnesota Vikings)

40. OLB Clark Haggans/Pittsburgh (Projection: Signs w/Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, or Cleveland Browns)