Draft strategy and rationale

[TigerJ]

I thought I'd see if I can lay out the pros and cons for the likely options the Bills will have for at least their first 2 picks. If you can think of other options or reasons the Bills might or might not choose a particular option that I have missed, please add to the thread.

Round 1
Option one: Trade down. Reasons for-There are likely to to be no compelling players that the Bills just have to have available at #11 overall. For any player the Bills might choose, there are other options available later who are nearly as talented. The Bills are mostly looking for good solid role players in this draft, and the more picks they can stockpile in the top few rounds the better.
Reasons against-The Bills may not find a willing trade partner. Far more teams want to trade down than want to trade up. The higher the Bills draft, the better the odds of finding a player who will make an impact.

Option 2: Draft a big wide receiver, most likely Malcolm Kelly. Reasons for-Kelly is thought by a number of pundits to be thw top WR in the draft and fits an area of obvious need, a big receiver who can out jump and out fight a smaller DB for the ball. He also happens to be very athletic and good speed for a big man. Even though he would be considered a #2 receiver in Buffalo, he would have the opportunity to have a lot of production and would make Lee Evans a much more effective receiver.
Reasons against-#11 over all is too high to draft a #2 receiver. This is a very deep receiver draft and it can ve argued that even Kelly as the top receiver is not an elite prospect that you would hope to get drafting that high. Not only are there lots of solid WRs, there are lots of big solid WRs. The Bills should, if drafting at #11, pick someone who will lilkely have a bigger impact than a #2 receiver.

Option 3: Draft a WLB. The choices would be Keith Rivers and Dan Conner.
Reasons for-Ellison proved he is not starting material. Buffalo's defense failed to stop the run or pressure opposing QBs. A great WLB will help improve both. Between Rivers and Conner, Rivers is the better athlete. He's bigger and faster than Conner. Conner is smarter, more technically sound and more consistent than rivers.
Reasons against-Conner is not a good enough athlete to take at #11 overall and Rivers disappears for stretches. You don't want either at #11 overall. There excellent cover 2 LBs who will be available in later rounds; Highsmith, Adibi, Henderson and others. They will upgrade the position almost as much as Conner or Rivers could and for far less of an investment. Rivers may be drafted before #11 overall.

Option #4: Draft a CB. Reason's for-Greer was a pleasant surprise last season, but opposing offenses seemed to figure him out later in the year. McGee started out shakey and improved, but neither one is a true shut down corner. It would be better to shift one of them to a nickel back position. If that were McGee, he would be fresher and more effective on returns.
Reasons against- This is not an accute need. More pressure on opposing QBs will make both of last years starters look better. They are solid CB and the front seven is a bigger problem. There is no CB that is head and shoulders above the rest. Pundets can't even agree on who is the best CB. Ist it Antoine Cason who was everyone's darling in early January or Mike Jenkins or Leodis McKelvin or Aqib Talib etc. Shouldn't the guy you pick at #11 overall be easy to distinguish from the next lower guy? Besides we keep hearing that the Tampa 2 defense doesn't need elite shut down cornerbacks.

Option #5: Draft a DT. Reasons for. If Sedrick Ellis or Glenn Dorsey drops, this is almost a slam dunk. Either one is an elite player. Unfortunately, that is a very long shot. But it's still a need. Arguably, the deficiency of the Bills' run defense begins with the deficiency of their defensive tackles. Kyle Williams had a pretty good rookie season, but appears not to have a very high ceiling due to his athletic limitations. John McCargo started to show why the Bills were high on him, but he's not there yet, and may never get there. Tripplett is a big disappointment. Buffalo needs someone who is athltic, quick and strong and plays with a mean streak. Even if Dorsey and Ellis are gone, there are some good ones left. Balmer had a strong senior yearEven Pat Sims or Dre Moore would upgrade the defensive line.
Reasons against-Ellis and Dorsey will be gone. Balmer was a disappointment until his senior year. You need more to go on than one good year of college if you're going to be drafted #11 overall. Sims and Moore are second round talents at best.

Option #6: Draft a defensive end. Reasons for-Buffalo had an anemic pass rush in 2008. Schobel was ordinary Kelsay was worse than that and Denney missed most of the season. Some argue that Hargrove was potentially Buffalo's best defensive end ahd he has thrown his career away because of drug use. There are some unique talents who will be available at #11 overall. If Golston is gone, Campbell, Harvey, and Merling are all intriguing. Merling, for instance is Mike Mayock's best DE, effective against both the pass and the run.
Reasons against-Buffalo has too much money tied up in Schobel and Kelsay to draft a DE that high. Aside from Golston, all of them have warts that mitigate against that high a selection. Calais is lazy and an underachiever.
Harvey is smallish and will not hold up against the run. Merling is raw and has too much to learn. You need to get a complete product when drafting that high.

I think I'll stop there. I've seen a mock or two that have Buffalo picking a QB at #11 overall, but I can't bother giving that perspective the time of day. If someone else wants to argue why Bufalo should select Andre Woodson at #11 overall, be my guest. Have I missed something? Feel free to add it. What arguement sways you the most? I don't know that this is going to change anyone's mind, but I thought i might be helpful at least to get all the arguements in one place.

[Night Train]

Great post, TigerJ.

[TigerJ]

Thanks.

[PECKERWOOD]

Option 1.

[TigerJ]

I just remembered I didn't do round 2. Of course, whatever the Bills do in round 1 will affect round 2. I'll take a crack at it at least.

Option 1: Draft Fred Davis. Reasons for-Fred Davis is seen as a good value here (unlike in round one though I've seen a few mocks listing him as a Bills pick in round one). Buffalo needs an athletic TE who can stretch the field down the middle and create missmatches for linebackers and safeties. Fred Davis was very productive in a pro style offense. He's also a relatively complete TE. Unlike some of the other TEs available in the draft, he can block even if he's not a 270 lb steamroller.
Reasons against-There are no real difference makers in this draft at TE. Davis's measurables are frankly not very good. His 40 time is rather pedestrian. He's a shade under 6'3" and under 250 lbs. It could be argued that his productivity stems more from the fact that he played on an offensive juggernaut at USC rather than being due to his abilities. There are other tight ends who have better measurables who will be available later, like Rucker. Perhaps Rucker was somewhat less productive only because he wasn't used as much.

Option 2: If Buffalo does not draft Kelly in round 1, draft the best available from among Sweed, Hardy, and Bowman in Round 2. Reasons for-If Buffalo doesn't get their big receiver by round 2, the warts on remaining big receivers are more noticeable. Jory Nelson was very productive, but he'll be drafted later for a reason. He's slower and more limited athletically than this trio. Buffalo needs that red zone threat and the odds go down after the second round that Buffalo will find someone who will be a significant help, especially in 2008.
Reasons against-If Buffalo really wants help this year, they needed to sign a free agent who can outfight DBs for the ball in the red zone. It's actually better to do it that way, and draft a big prospect late that you can develop. People like Ernie Wheelwright or Justin Harper could be real gems who just need a little time to develop, You can get them in rounds 6 or 7.

Option 3: If Buffalo does not draft a WOLB in round 1, to draft one here. Candidates would include, but not necessarily be limited to Highsmith or Adibi. Reasons for-The most obvious reason is to fill that need. Buffalo needs an upgrade, and one of these guys can provide it.
Reasons against-This is starting to get a little weak, but there are still guys they can get later who can fit the bill, while it may be harder to fill some other needs later on, like DT.

Option 4: An athletic DT. Reasons for- this might be the last place twhere the Bills have a chance to get a DT who can have a significant impact, unlike LB where there are still later options Pat Sims and Dre Moore both represent pretty good value here, and there's a chance Balmer could drop here too. Wait and you may be scraping the bottom of the barrell.
Reasons against-This is still not as accute a need as WOLB and a big #2 receiver. If the Bills want a DT upgrade, the best place to get is free agency anyway.

Option 5: Quentin Groves, or another DE/OLBDE. Reasons for-Buffalo has to get more pressure on opposing QBs and the odds of doing it with a DE drafted in round 6 are pretty low. Groves is the closest thing in this draft to a physical freak in terms of his size/speed ratio. Buffalo could move him around on passing downs and cause fits for opposing defenses.
Reasons against. Groves is Aaron Schobel without experience. What is he going to give the Bills that they don't have already? No DE the Bills can draft here is going to make a difference in the pressure the Bills can bring against opposing QBs. They might as well turn their attention in some direction that can make a difference.

Well, that's what I've got. Go ahead and add to it if you like, or tell me what argument sways you.

[kernowboy]

I think I'd want to look to Trade down.

If we can get into the 20s then we can take a flyer on someone like Pat Sims who can play the 1-Tackle, could probably get a R2 pick as well and then grab a 3-Tackle in Dre Moore in the 2nd. With the additional pick, the likes of Adarius Bowman will still be around.

I know - 2 DTs - but its not unheard of to draft two players at the same position very high in the draft, to overhaul a unit. The Steelers did it last year draft Timmons, and Woodley

And I also think we can pick up decent TE and CB prospects in the 3rd

At LB, I think there is more depth in FA than at other positions - there are the likes of Boley, Boss Bailey, Hobson, and Teddy Lehman all of who can be an upgrade - we won't be able to draft to upgrade every position, and here I think we can wait until 2009 and draft someone like Sean Lee of Penn St

[jpdex12]

This is an interesting thread TJ but these are definitely obvious questions that all of us fans have as well as OBD. There are so many ways to approach the draft and FA this year to fill our needs. IF we only had that crystal ball to tell us which decisions to make that will ultimately be the best ones...

I would say that we need to attack FA aggressively this season and fill some positions that require immediate starters. If we intend on competing this year for the playoffs then we can't expect to groom someone to be ready in a year or two and we can't always keep guessing right with day one draft picks that end up starting. We are bound to misfire again on an early pick. That is why we need to focus on FA for DT, DE, CB and WR's because we need someone with experience that can compete for a starting spot.

IF we get lucky in the draft with a gamer then that just makes us that more competitive with potential starters/contributers.

Right now we lack a fourth DT and DE in our rotations. We need a solid, heavy DT that can get a push up the middle and a solid DE that can pressure the QB as good as our starters and hold strong against the run.

I'm confident we can find an effective CB that won't cost much in FA but a higher round CB may be able to be just as good. A #2 WR is a must in FA. We cannot expect a rookie to step in and fill the need especially if Detroit's heralded rookie WR couldn't from last year. The most wee can expect from a rookie WR in the 1st round is to help contribute to some extent not in every game though.

This is why I can see Buffalo going after the most likely candidate that could be a starter on day one and contribute the most and if we don't see Ellis or Dorsey falling to #11 I would be happy to see them grab Rivers. He IS a starter at OLB for us. I absolutely love Malcomb Kelly but WR take at least 3/4 of a year to develop in most cases and I think that round two would be a better place for this type of pick.

If we don't strike a few different positions in FA that produce capable starters at DT, WR and DE we can kiss the playoffs goodbye in 2008.

DT,DE and WR in FA

OLB,WR, CB and TE in the draft.
round 1-OLB
round 2-WR
round 3a-TE
round 3b-CB

If we complete an offseason like this we don't need a DT or DE in the draft this year.

[DraftBoy]

Good post TigerJ and I think the combine this week will help to settle a little more who the top WR's and CB's are once all official sizes and 40 times are in. As of riht now Im all for taking a Rivers, Connor, or a CB McKelvin, and DRC are my tops. I dont think DE is a consideration though if Merling falls to Round 2 I dont know that we can pass on him. WR wise is going to depend on FA, if we get one of the top 3, we wont take one till Day 2, if we dont then its a R1 or R2 pick.

[TigerJ]

I agree, free agency will have a major impact on what the Bills do in the draft. I think they will be players in free agency. They won't sign any of the biggest names, but they will look for value in the second tier.