2008 Bills Offseason Preview (Part 1 of 2)

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  • patmoran2006
    Ole' Ralphie SCROOGE
    • Dec 2005
    • 19840

    2008 Bills Offseason Preview (Part 1 of 2)

    (Note- This has NOT been fully edited. Right now, it's basically a rough draft. In fact, there isn't even a lead-in yet..Basically, still needs some work but it's my premise anyway. Since I'm a "zoner" first, I always like to share my thoughts with the board before anyone else, even if everyone else hates them... It's for a Fox Sports peice I'm doing that will hopefully run on February 26th or 27th. HOpefully it will get picked up by a few other bigger sites like last year.. But at any rate, here's part 1 of 2.. The offense)
    =======================================================

    Quarterback: While it’s debatable on exactly how sold the team’s fan base is on Trent Edwards; it’s clear-cut from an organizational standpoint he’s the present and future quarterback of the Bills. While he has a long way to go before being weighed against the upper echelon quarterbacks of the league, Edwards exceeded even the most optimistic expectations as a rookie. Conversely, JP Losman’s career as a Bill is over. There is a next-to-zero chance he’ll be back in 2008. The last thing head coach Dick Jauron wants/needs is any partition in the locker room, and Losman is likely to be much more vocal in his discontent remaining with the team as a backup should he not be moved. Ideally, the Bills want to get as high a draft pick as possible for Losman, but with little leverage on the trade market, it’s likely they’ll take less in order to liberate themselves of any potential locker room crisis.

    Having said that, the Bills unmistakably need a veteran backup. Drafting a quarterback who’ll have even less experience than Edwards makes no sense, especially given Edwards’ past injuries as a rookie and in college. One guy who might easily pop up on the radar is Miami Dolphins quarterback Cleo Lemon. Not only would Lemon come with valuable experience as a backup, more importantly he is immensely familiar with the rest of the division.


    Running Back: Buffalo took a chance and struck gold with rookie Marshawn Lynch in last year’s draft. In his freshmen campaign, Lynch was everything the Bills could hope for and more. Despite missing three games and being the focal part of defensive coordinators, Lynch still ran for 1,115 yards and seven touchdowns. He also added 184 yards receiving and figures to have a much bigger role in the air game with Turk Schonert as new offensive coordinator. Fred Jackson finally got a chance to play after Lynch injured his ankle and shined, rushing for 300 yards, including 115 yards in his start at Washington. Jackson also showed he can be dangerous as a pass catching threat (190 yards) and should be firmly entrenched as the number two back in 2008. Although rookie DeWayne Wright didn’t do much the team likes him enough that it could spell the end for veteran Anthony Thomas.


    If the Bills do anything this spring it may be at fullback. Schonert will use a true two-back system in ’08. The team already signed six-year veteran Darian Barnes but don’t be surprised if the team takes a look at another veteran in free agency or perhaps in the middle rounds of the draft. All things considered, running back position is the slightest of the Bills worries.


    Wide Receiver: The Bills could line up with Edwards, Losman, Johnny Unitas or Terry Bradshaw behind center and it wouldn’t be relevant unless the club improves at this position. To be candid, the Bills aren’t even close to being a contender with their current core of pass catchers. If the club has just one priority this spring, it must be improving this grossly underachieving unit. Lee Evans may or may not be a legitimate number one receiver. But one thing is certain, he got little if any help from his teammates and had trouble almost the entire season trying to shake countless double teams that constantly came his way. Partially due to all the extra attention, Evans had only 849 yards receiving in 2007, down 443 yards from a year ago. In fact, Evans had only two games all year with 100+ receiving yards, and in nine of the other 14 contests he failed to generate more than 40 yards. Having no consistent threat alongside him and a quarterback carousel throwing to him did no favors, but he still most perform much better to be considered a real number one in this league. Roscoe Parrish showed flashes of being able to make the big play, but getting open was often a problem. Josh Reed demonstrated much better hands in ridding himself of a previously deserved ‘butterfingers” label, but like the rest of receivers had problems separating himself from defenders. Former starter Peerless Price was recently released and depending on how active the Bills are in free agency and the draft, Reed could be eventually joining him looking for work.


    It’s essential to the entire offense the team finds a receiver who validly has the ability to be a starter. There are likely to be four candidates via free agency; Ernest Wilford, Justin Gage, Bryant Johnston and DJ Hackett. Of the four, Hackett probably has the most ability, but is also the most injured prone. Gage would be an ideal fit, but Tennessee has recently begun contract talks in trying to keep him from hitting free agency. Wilford probably will hit the market but the Bills will have plenty of competition in signing him. Johnston has done the least of the four, in part from playing behind Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitgerald, but also might be the most intriguing. It’s probable all four guys could get contracts that exceed their value, but given the state of the position here and the Bills salary cap room, the club may be required to pay a little more than they’re worth (see Derrick Dockery 2007) to secure any progress at the spot while helping the growth of Edwards. I think the pick here could be Hackett, who comes with the most risk but probably has the most upside.

    Even if they sign a quality free agent, it doesn’t mean the Bills will be done addressing the position. It’s highly likely the club could use the 11th pick in the draft on a wide receiver. Malcomb Kelly, a big receiver from Oklahoma with soft hands and big play ability, could be the pick. It’s also possible the team could move down and look at Limas Sweed or DeSean Jackson. Jackson is a speedster from California who played with Lynch, but it’s questionable the Bills would want to add yet another quick but undersized receiver to the offense.

    Tight End: One thing quickly became apparent once Edwards became the starter; he has a fondness for throwing to the tight end. Robert Royal and Michael Gaines combined for 50 catches, 463 yards and five touchdowns. Still, neither guy had reliable hands. In fact, both made critical drops late in games and sometimes disappeared for long stretches. While the team won’t mortgage the farm on a potential free agent like Dallas Clark or trade for a Jeremy Shockey, it’s very possible, in fact probable a tight end more equipped at pass catching could be coming Buffalo’s way. Two possibilities are New Orleans free agent tight end Eric Johnson and Indianapolis’ Ben Utecht, who comes much underrated after playing behind Clark.


    Offensive Line: In Jason Peters, Derrick Dockery and Langston Walker, the Bills are rock solid with 60% of their offensive line. Peters in little time has become about as good as any left tackle in the league. Dockery, while not spectacular was a huge upgrade at left guard; which given his $7-million per year contract he signed last year he better be. Perhaps the biggest surprise and least talked about revelation of the entire 2007 season for Buffalo was the tremendous play of free agent pickup Walker. Given a five-year, $25-million contract last spring despite giving up almost 11 sacks with Oakland in 2005, the signing was questioned by many. But Walker came to Buffalo and was as reliable as any lineman on the team. One year later, he actually looks like a bargain.

    That’s where it gets sketchy. The Bills struggled mightily running the ball up the middle and in short yardage situations. Brad Butler started at right guard for the first time and showed potential, but is still a work in progress. Center Melvin Fowler was the weak link, often getting pushed around by the bigger nose tackles.

    Jeff Faine is by far the best of available centers in free agency, but with the other needs of the team it’s doubtful the club will give him the price tag he’ll demand serious consideration. The more likely scenario could see the Bills using one of their third round picks (they have two) on a center to develop over the long term instead of a stop-gap solution in Faine. 2006 draft pick Aaron Merz, injured last year could become a factor at either center or guard.

    Overall, the line was improved over 2006 and a year of continuity and better play calling could take another step in the right direction.


    Offensive Summary:

    This is a unit that is likely to go as far as Ralph Wilson’s pockets and the front office decide to take them. Early indications, especially from the majority of the fans’ point of view aren’t promising. After Marv Levy retired, Wilson promoted from within by way of naming Russ Brandon as the team’s COO, foregoing a regular general manager in favor of a guy who’s much more known for his marketing abilities than his football prowess. John Guy, Tom Modrak, and Jim Overdorf were all also given promotions, moves that didn’t sit well with many fans and make people wonder at this late stage of Wilson’s life if he’s more serious about winning as opposed to filling up the stadium.

    Pieces of the puzzle are already in place for a dramatic improvement over a pathetic offensive 2007. Lynch is both a workhorse and a stud. Most of the offensive line is above average, and Peters is as good as it gets as the critical let tackle spot. Edwards has the ability to be a very efficient quarterback in this league, but flat-out needs more weapons to be successful. Gaining a quality number two receiver in the free agent market, as well as an improvement at tight end is vital, and drafting the best wide receiver they can find early is equally essential.

    Again, ultimately it lies on the shoulders of Wilson and what he’s willing to spend to give his young core of offensive stars and first-time coordinator Schonert the tools he’ll need to succeed.

    Coming Next: The defense.


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  • streetkings01
    Registered User
    • Jul 2006
    • 2980

    #2
    Re: 2008 Bills Offseason Preview (Part 1 of 2)

    I liked it.
    You can call me streetkings

    Comment

    • HHURRICANE
      Registered User
      • Mar 2005
      • 15490

      #3
      Re: 2008 Bills Offseason Preview (Part 1 of 2)

      This is what I don't understand. We were one of the worst offenses the last 3 years but we are only a few players away?

      We need at minimun a #2 and a #5 WR and most likely a #4. We need an upgrade at TE. We need a center. We need a FB. We need backups to our o-line. And a veteran backup at QB. It won't happen this year.

      Year #3 of rebuilding.

      Comment

      • DraftBoy
        Administrator
        • Jul 2002
        • 107452

        #4
        Re: 2008 Bills Offseason Preview (Part 1 of 2)

        Everything is good except your QB writeup is a little bias
        COMING SOON...
        Originally posted by Dr.Lecter
        We were both drunk and Hillary did not look that bad at 2 AM, I swear!!!!!!

        Comment

        • gr8slayer
          Registered User
          • Feb 2005
          • 20796

          #5
          Re: 2008 Bills Offseason Preview (Part 1 of 2)

          Good article but you are far too bias in this article to be taken serious/credible.

          Comment

          • gr8slayer
            Registered User
            • Feb 2005
            • 20796

            #6
            Re: 2008 Bills Offseason Preview (Part 1 of 2)

            Originally posted by HHURRICANE
            This is what I don't understand. We were one of the worst offenses the last 3 years but we are only a few players away?

            We need at minimun a #2 and a #5 WR and most likely a #4. We need an upgrade at TE. We need a center. We need a FB. We need backups to our o-line. And a veteran backup at QB. It won't happen this year.

            Year #3 of rebuilding.
            #5 WR? Our team is loaded with #5 WR's.

            FB? Give Barnes a chance, he was a good blocker in Dallas, just don't try to throw him the ball.

            #2 WR? We need a #2 who isn't a midget.

            TE? You know we aren't going to upgrade TE.

            Backups at OL? How about starters at C and RG? I would feel more confident with a couple of our backups starting.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: 2008 Bills Offseason Preview (Part 1 of 2)

              Good article

              I disagree with Barnes. He's on his 6th team since 2002. I think he's been brought to have an experienced FB in camp but I would like to see us pick up Dan Kreidar who has got 3 years left in the tank maybe and draft someone in the final couple of rounds to pick up the baton.

              Evans and Reed stay. Parrish as a 5th receiver. We therefore need two WR with one probably coming in the draft hopefully on Day1. I'd take anyone over 6ft2 and 210lbs.

              At TE, there are a range of low R2 and R3 possibilities. With two picks in the third, I think its inconceivable we don't pick one up and with any luck it will be a Jason Witten Mk2

              On the OL the only week point is Fowler and as he's in the final year of his 3 year deal it will be interesting to see what we do here. Butler did well enough in a new position of RG to be given a second season. Merz might be the C of the future but I like him at guard. I think we need to look at picking up a C and a G/T from R5 downwards. John Sullivan of Notre Dame and Kirk Barton of Ohio St would be good editions and will eventually push Fowler and the other linemen. A future line of Peters-Merz-Sullivan-Barton-Butler in 2011 looks good and solid to me.

              Comment

              • patmoran2006
                Ole' Ralphie SCROOGE
                • Dec 2005
                • 19840

                #8
                Re: 2008 Bills Offseason Preview (Part 1 of 2)

                I have no problem admitting to being biased.. But I dont think I am being so here.

                What I said about Edwards/Losman is pretty much fact (or at least will be real soon, regardless of how I feel about the situation).. Edwards is the starting QB, and Losman is gone.. On top of that, Losman has already stated through his agent he WANTS to be traded. Does anyone think the situation will get better if he stays?

                I assume that's where the bias is coming from? If not, where else was I bias in that peice?


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                • DraftBoy
                  Administrator
                  • Jul 2002
                  • 107452

                  #9
                  Re: 2008 Bills Offseason Preview (Part 1 of 2)

                  Originally posted by patmoran2006
                  I have no problem admitting to being biased.. But I dont think I am being so here.

                  What I said about Edwards/Losman is pretty much fact (or at least will be real soon, regardless of how I feel about the situation).. Edwards is the starting QB, and Losman is gone.. On top of that, Losman has already stated through his agent he WANTS to be traded. Does anyone think the situation will get better if he stays?

                  I assume that's where the bias is coming from? If not, where else was I bias in that peice?

                  Quarterback: While it’s debatable on exactly how sold the team’s fan base is on Trent Edwards; it’s clear-cut from an organizational standpoint he’s the present and future quarterback of the Bills.

                  Presently yes he is the QB, but the organization has made no indication that he is the future of this franchise. Where are you getting that from?


                  Drafting a quarterback who’ll have even less experience than Edwards makes no sense.

                  We have one QB on the roster (not counting Losman), we need to add at least two. One needs to be a vet yes, but not drafting a project type QB in case Edwards doesn't progress is completely naive thinking.

                  Those were two of my main concerns about the QB section
                  COMING SOON...
                  Originally posted by Dr.Lecter
                  We were both drunk and Hillary did not look that bad at 2 AM, I swear!!!!!!

                  Comment

                  • patmoran2006
                    Ole' Ralphie SCROOGE
                    • Dec 2005
                    • 19840

                    #10
                    Re: 2008 Bills Offseason Preview (Part 1 of 2)

                    Do you think drafting a QB makes sense?

                    What happens when we trade JP and Edwards goes down for good in week three, like say JP did last year? YOu want ANOTHER rookie to have to step in, or a vet who's been there before?

                    I dont think by any means Lemon is great. But he's a good backup, who knows this division in and out.. I think he'd be a great addition.


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                    • DraftBoy
                      Administrator
                      • Jul 2002
                      • 107452

                      #11
                      Re: 2008 Bills Offseason Preview (Part 1 of 2)

                      Originally posted by patmoran2006
                      Do you think drafting a QB makes sense?

                      What happens when we trade JP and Edwards goes down for good in week three, like say JP did last year? YOu want ANOTHER rookie to have to step in, or a vet who's been there before?

                      I dont think by any means Lemon is great. But he's a good backup, who knows this division in and out.. I think he'd be a great addition.

                      YES!!! 10000000% YES!!!!!

                      By the way Pat you gotta read my entire post, I said bring in 2 QB's not 1, 2. In fact I even say;

                      Originally posted by DraftBoy
                      We have one QB on the roster (not counting Losman), we need to add at least two. One needs to be a vet
                      COMING SOON...
                      Originally posted by Dr.Lecter
                      We were both drunk and Hillary did not look that bad at 2 AM, I swear!!!!!!

                      Comment

                      • gr8slayer
                        Registered User
                        • Feb 2005
                        • 20796

                        #12
                        Re: 2008 Bills Offseason Preview (Part 1 of 2)

                        Originally posted by patmoran2006
                        Do you think drafting a QB makes sense?

                        What happens when we trade JP and Edwards goes down for good in week three, like say JP did last year? YOu want ANOTHER rookie to have to step in, or a vet who's been there before?

                        I dont think by any means Lemon is great. But he's a good backup, who knows this division in and out.. I think he'd be a great addition.
                        I still struggle to see what you see in Edwards. I'm all for hoping for the best, but to claim that he is the clear cut QB of the future just makes no sense at all. I won't screw with your thread and start another pointless Edwards vs. Losman BS argument, but seriously, what does he have that 31 other QB's don't? From what I've seen, nothing.

                        And absolutely drafting a QB makes sense. Let's not make the same mistake we made with Losman and just hand him the job; competition breeds greatness.

                        Comment

                        • Midwesternbillsfan
                          Registered User
                          • Apr 2007
                          • 207

                          #13
                          Re: 2008 Bills Offseason Preview (Part 1 of 2)

                          Pat- good work! A couple of minor things to point out before commenting more elaborately: Fred Jackson didn't have 115 yards against the Redskins; he had his 100-yard game against Miami the following week and I believe he had 80 against Washington. Secondly, Bryant Johnson's last name isn't Johnston but Johnson. He's Larry Johnson's brother, if that helps you to remember.

                          Anyway, this is a very comprehensive and insightful look at the Bills in '07 and going forward into 2008. I personally love your promotion of D.J. Hackett, whom I believe has genuine star potential that will be realized if he can just manage to stay healthy (I can't sugarcoat it; that is a big "if"). Dick Jauron is probably too timid, reluctant and conservative to take a risk on the productive (when healthy), sure-handed, sufficiently fast 6'2" 209-lbs. Seattle wideout. But that doesn't mean that he isn't a decided notch above the collection of other WR's on the market, namely Bryant Johnson, Justin Gage, and Ernest Wilford (in that order). Those guys are at best #2 receivers (and it's somewhat questionable for all three, probably the most so w/Wilford, if they can be quality #2's). In my opinion, though, extrapolating Hackett's numbers from his limited starts in '06 and '07 give him the potential to be a 1B to Evans' 1A. A poor man's Harrison-Wayne, if you will (but not a destitute man). That's how good I think Hackett can be.

                          Anyway, good job; that was very erudite and very knowledgeable, Pat.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: 2008 Bills Offseason Preview (Part 1 of 2)

                            I don't think we should draft a QB.

                            We have Edwards, and Losman and on the books we still have Hamdan. Losman won't be traded in all likelihood before the draft so it makes sense to keep in on the books until the preseason. If Edwards beats him out, we can look to trade him for a 2009 picks and see if we can pick up a Free Agent QB.

                            I do think we will be picking a QB early in 2009, maybe on Day1.

                            Whilst we may need two WR, I actually see us grabbing at least one in the draft. We might grab a lower rated FA but I think our top 4 receivers will be Evans and Parrish, Reed and the draftee. In many ways a receiving TE is more important considering Edwards use of them.

                            Comment

                            • patmoran2006
                              Ole' Ralphie SCROOGE
                              • Dec 2005
                              • 19840

                              #15
                              Re: 2008 Bills Offseason Preview (Part 1 of 2)

                              Whomever the 3rd QB is will be a clipboard holder. If Edwards went down early for a long length of time, we'll be looking for a short-term Testeverde-like band aid while the backup we HOPEFULLY sign in FA plays.

                              I'd be absoutely SHOCKED if we took a QB before the 5th round, at the earliest.


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