(Note- This has NOT been fully edited. Right now, it's basically a rough draft. In fact, there isn't even a lead-in yet..Basically, still needs some work but it's my premise anyway. Since I'm a "zoner" first, I always like to share my thoughts with the board before anyone else, even if everyone else hates them... It's for a Fox Sports peice I'm doing that will hopefully run on February 26th or 27th. HOpefully it will get picked up by a few other bigger sites like last year.. But at any rate, here's part 1 of 2.. The offense)
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Quarterback: While it’s debatable on exactly how sold the team’s fan base is on Trent Edwards; it’s clear-cut from an organizational standpoint he’s the present and future quarterback of the Bills. While he has a long way to go before being weighed against the upper echelon quarterbacks of the league, Edwards exceeded even the most optimistic expectations as a rookie. Conversely, JP Losman’s career as a Bill is over. There is a next-to-zero chance he’ll be back in 2008. The last thing head coach Dick Jauron wants/needs is any partition in the locker room, and Losman is likely to be much more vocal in his discontent remaining with the team as a backup should he not be moved. Ideally, the Bills want to get as high a draft pick as possible for Losman, but with little leverage on the trade market, it’s likely they’ll take less in order to liberate themselves of any potential locker room crisis.
Having said that, the Bills unmistakably need a veteran backup. Drafting a quarterback who’ll have even less experience than Edwards makes no sense, especially given Edwards’ past injuries as a rookie and in college. One guy who might easily pop up on the radar is Miami Dolphins quarterback Cleo Lemon. Not only would Lemon come with valuable experience as a backup, more importantly he is immensely familiar with the rest of the division.
Running Back:Buffalo took a chance and struck gold with rookie Marshawn Lynch in last year’s draft. In his freshmen campaign, Lynch was everything the Bills could hope for and more. Despite missing three games and being the focal part of defensive coordinators, Lynch still ran for 1,115 yards and seven touchdowns. He also added 184 yards receiving and figures to have a much bigger role in the air game with Turk Schonert as new offensive coordinator. Fred Jackson finally got a chance to play after Lynch injured his ankle and shined, rushing for 300 yards, including 115 yards in his start at Washington . Jackson also showed he can be dangerous as a pass catching threat (190 yards) and should be firmly entrenched as the number two back in 2008. Although rookie DeWayne Wright didn’t do much the team likes him enough that it could spell the end for veteran Anthony Thomas.
If the Bills do anything this spring it may be at fullback. Schonert will use a true two-back system in ’08. The team already signed six-year veteran Darian Barnes but don’t be surprised if the team takes a look at another veteran in free agency or perhaps in the middle rounds of the draft. All things considered, running back position is the slightest of the Bills worries.
Wide Receiver: The Bills could line up with Edwards, Losman, Johnny Unitas or Terry Bradshaw behind center and it wouldn’t be relevant unless the club improves at this position. To be candid, the Bills aren’t even close to being a contender with their current core of pass catchers. If the club has just one priority this spring, it must be improving this grossly underachieving unit. Lee Evans may or may not be a legitimate number one receiver. But one thing is certain, he got little if any help from his teammates and had trouble almost the entire season trying to shake countless double teams that constantly came his way. Partially due to all the extra attention, Evans had only 849 yards receiving in 2007, down 443 yards from a year ago. In fact, Evans had only two games all year with 100+ receiving yards, and in nine of the other 14 contests he failed to generate more than 40 yards. Having no consistent threat alongside him and a quarterback carousel throwing to him did no favors, but he still most perform much better to be considered a real number one in this league. Roscoe Parrish showed flashes of being able to make the big play, but getting open was often a problem. Josh Reed demonstrated much better hands in ridding himself of a previously deserved ‘butterfingers” label, but like the rest of receivers had problems separating himself from defenders. Former starter Peerless Price was recently released and depending on how active the Bills are in free agency and the draft, Reed could be eventually joining him looking for work.
It’s essential to the entire offense the team finds a receiver who validly has the ability to be a starter. There are likely to be four candidates via free agency; Ernest Wilford, Justin Gage, Bryant Johnston and DJ Hackett. Of the four, Hackett probably has the most ability, but is also the most injured prone. Gage would be an ideal fit, butTennessee has recently begun contract talks in trying to keep him from hitting free agency. Wilford probably will hit the market but the Bills will have plenty of competition in signing him. Johnston has done the least of the four, in part from playing behind Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitgerald, but also might be the most intriguing. It’s probable all four guys could get contracts that exceed their value, but given the state of the position here and the Bills salary cap room, the club may be required to pay a little more than they’re worth (see Derrick Dockery 2007) to secure any progress at the spot while helping the growth of Edwards. I think the pick here could be Hackett, who comes with the most risk but probably has the most upside.
Even if they sign a quality free agent, it doesn’t mean the Bills will be done addressing the position. It’s highly likely the club could use the 11th pick in the draft on a wide receiver. Malcomb Kelly, a big receiver fromOklahoma with soft hands and big play ability, could be the pick. It’s also possible the team could move down and look at Limas Sweed or DeSean Jackson. Jackson is a speedster from California who played with Lynch, but it’s questionable the Bills would want to add yet another quick but undersized receiver to the offense.
Tight End: One thing quickly became apparent once Edwards became the starter; he has a fondness for throwing to the tight end. Robert Royal and Michael Gaines combined for 50 catches, 463 yards and five touchdowns. Still, neither guy had reliable hands. In fact, both made critical drops late in games and sometimes disappeared for long stretches. While the team won’t mortgage the farm on a potential free agent like Dallas Clark or trade for a Jeremy Shockey, it’s very possible, in fact probable a tight end more equipped at pass catching could be coming Buffalo’s way. Two possibilities areNew Orleans free agent tight end Eric Johnson and Indianapolis ’ Ben Utecht, who comes much underrated after playing behind Clark .
Offensive Line: In Jason Peters, Derrick Dockery and Langston Walker, the Bills are rock solid with 60% of their offensive line. Peters in little time has become about as good as any left tackle in the league. Dockery, while not spectacular was a huge upgrade at left guard; which given his $7-million per year contract he signed last year he better be. Perhaps the biggest surprise and least talked about revelation of the entire 2007 season forBuffalo was the tremendous play of free agent pickup Walker . Given a five-year, $25-million contract last spring despite giving up almost 11 sacks with Oakland in 2005, the signing was questioned by many. But Walker came to Buffalo and was as reliable as any lineman on the team. One year later, he actually looks like a bargain.
That’s where it gets sketchy. The Bills struggled mightily running the ball up the middle and in short yardage situations. Brad Butler started at right guard for the first time and showed potential, but is still a work in progress. Center Melvin Fowler was the weak link, often getting pushed around by the bigger nose tackles.
Jeff Faine is by far the best of available centers in free agency, but with the other needs of the team it’s doubtful the club will give him the price tag he’ll demand serious consideration. The more likely scenario could see the Bills using one of their third round picks (they have two) on a center to develop over the long term instead of a stop-gap solution in Faine. 2006 draft pick Aaron Merz, injured last year could become a factor at either center or guard.
Overall, the line was improved over 2006 and a year of continuity and better play calling could take another step in the right direction.
Offensive Summary:
This is a unit that is likely to go as far as Ralph Wilson’s pockets and the front office decide to take them. Early indications, especially from the majority of the fans’ point of view aren’t promising. After Marv Levy retired,Wilson promoted from within by way of naming Russ Brandon as the team’s COO, foregoing a regular general manager in favor of a guy who’s much more known for his marketing abilities than his football prowess. John Guy, Tom Modrak, and Jim Overdorf were all also given promotions, moves that didn’t sit well with many fans and make people wonder at this late stage of Wilson ’s life if he’s more serious about winning as opposed to filling up the stadium.
Pieces of the puzzle are already in place for a dramatic improvement over a pathetic offensive 2007. Lynch is both a workhorse and a stud. Most of the offensive line is above average, and Peters is as good as it gets as the critical let tackle spot. Edwards has the ability to be a very efficient quarterback in this league, but flat-out needs more weapons to be successful. Gaining a quality number two receiver in the free agent market, as well as an improvement at tight end is vital, and drafting the best wide receiver they can find early is equally essential.
Again, ultimately it lies on the shoulders ofWilson and what he’s willing to spend to give his young core of offensive stars and first-time coordinator Schonert the tools he’ll need to succeed.
Coming Next: The defense.
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Quarterback: While it’s debatable on exactly how sold the team’s fan base is on Trent Edwards; it’s clear-cut from an organizational standpoint he’s the present and future quarterback of the Bills. While he has a long way to go before being weighed against the upper echelon quarterbacks of the league, Edwards exceeded even the most optimistic expectations as a rookie. Conversely, JP Losman’s career as a Bill is over. There is a next-to-zero chance he’ll be back in 2008. The last thing head coach Dick Jauron wants/needs is any partition in the locker room, and Losman is likely to be much more vocal in his discontent remaining with the team as a backup should he not be moved. Ideally, the Bills want to get as high a draft pick as possible for Losman, but with little leverage on the trade market, it’s likely they’ll take less in order to liberate themselves of any potential locker room crisis.
Having said that, the Bills unmistakably need a veteran backup. Drafting a quarterback who’ll have even less experience than Edwards makes no sense, especially given Edwards’ past injuries as a rookie and in college. One guy who might easily pop up on the radar is Miami Dolphins quarterback Cleo Lemon. Not only would Lemon come with valuable experience as a backup, more importantly he is immensely familiar with the rest of the division.
Running Back:
If the Bills do anything this spring it may be at fullback. Schonert will use a true two-back system in ’08. The team already signed six-year veteran Darian Barnes but don’t be surprised if the team takes a look at another veteran in free agency or perhaps in the middle rounds of the draft. All things considered, running back position is the slightest of the Bills worries.
Wide Receiver: The Bills could line up with Edwards, Losman, Johnny Unitas or Terry Bradshaw behind center and it wouldn’t be relevant unless the club improves at this position. To be candid, the Bills aren’t even close to being a contender with their current core of pass catchers. If the club has just one priority this spring, it must be improving this grossly underachieving unit. Lee Evans may or may not be a legitimate number one receiver. But one thing is certain, he got little if any help from his teammates and had trouble almost the entire season trying to shake countless double teams that constantly came his way. Partially due to all the extra attention, Evans had only 849 yards receiving in 2007, down 443 yards from a year ago. In fact, Evans had only two games all year with 100+ receiving yards, and in nine of the other 14 contests he failed to generate more than 40 yards. Having no consistent threat alongside him and a quarterback carousel throwing to him did no favors, but he still most perform much better to be considered a real number one in this league. Roscoe Parrish showed flashes of being able to make the big play, but getting open was often a problem. Josh Reed demonstrated much better hands in ridding himself of a previously deserved ‘butterfingers” label, but like the rest of receivers had problems separating himself from defenders. Former starter Peerless Price was recently released and depending on how active the Bills are in free agency and the draft, Reed could be eventually joining him looking for work.
It’s essential to the entire offense the team finds a receiver who validly has the ability to be a starter. There are likely to be four candidates via free agency; Ernest Wilford, Justin Gage, Bryant Johnston and DJ Hackett. Of the four, Hackett probably has the most ability, but is also the most injured prone. Gage would be an ideal fit, but
Even if they sign a quality free agent, it doesn’t mean the Bills will be done addressing the position. It’s highly likely the club could use the 11th pick in the draft on a wide receiver. Malcomb Kelly, a big receiver from
Tight End: One thing quickly became apparent once Edwards became the starter; he has a fondness for throwing to the tight end. Robert Royal and Michael Gaines combined for 50 catches, 463 yards and five touchdowns. Still, neither guy had reliable hands. In fact, both made critical drops late in games and sometimes disappeared for long stretches. While the team won’t mortgage the farm on a potential free agent like Dallas Clark or trade for a Jeremy Shockey, it’s very possible, in fact probable a tight end more equipped at pass catching could be coming Buffalo’s way. Two possibilities are
Offensive Line: In Jason Peters, Derrick Dockery and Langston Walker, the Bills are rock solid with 60% of their offensive line. Peters in little time has become about as good as any left tackle in the league. Dockery, while not spectacular was a huge upgrade at left guard; which given his $7-million per year contract he signed last year he better be. Perhaps the biggest surprise and least talked about revelation of the entire 2007 season for
That’s where it gets sketchy. The Bills struggled mightily running the ball up the middle and in short yardage situations. Brad Butler started at right guard for the first time and showed potential, but is still a work in progress. Center Melvin Fowler was the weak link, often getting pushed around by the bigger nose tackles.
Jeff Faine is by far the best of available centers in free agency, but with the other needs of the team it’s doubtful the club will give him the price tag he’ll demand serious consideration. The more likely scenario could see the Bills using one of their third round picks (they have two) on a center to develop over the long term instead of a stop-gap solution in Faine. 2006 draft pick Aaron Merz, injured last year could become a factor at either center or guard.
Overall, the line was improved over 2006 and a year of continuity and better play calling could take another step in the right direction.
Offensive Summary:
This is a unit that is likely to go as far as Ralph Wilson’s pockets and the front office decide to take them. Early indications, especially from the majority of the fans’ point of view aren’t promising. After Marv Levy retired,
Pieces of the puzzle are already in place for a dramatic improvement over a pathetic offensive 2007. Lynch is both a workhorse and a stud. Most of the offensive line is above average, and Peters is as good as it gets as the critical let tackle spot. Edwards has the ability to be a very efficient quarterback in this league, but flat-out needs more weapons to be successful. Gaining a quality number two receiver in the free agent market, as well as an improvement at tight end is vital, and drafting the best wide receiver they can find early is equally essential.
Again, ultimately it lies on the shoulders of
Coming Next: The defense.
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