patmoran2006
02-19-2008, 03:29 PM
(Note- This has NOT been fully edited. Right now, it's basically a rough draft. In fact, there isn't even a lead-in yet..Basically, still needs some work but it's my premise anyway. Since I'm a "zoner" first, I always like to share my thoughts with the board before anyone else, even if everyone else hates them... It's for a Fox Sports peice I'm doing that will hopefully run on February 26th or 27th. HOpefully it will get picked up by a few other bigger sites like last year.. But at any rate, here's part 2 of 2.. The defense)
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p> </o:p>
Defensive End: Of all the positions on this football team, this may be where the Bills are the most powerless. In one hand, Aaron Schobel, Chris Kelsay and Ryan Denney are all good pass rushers; even if they’re stats (10 sacks combined in 2007) are down. On the other, they’re all dreadful against the run. The dilemma lies in so much money being devoted to this trio it’s hard to validate spending significantly more in free agency. Schobel signed a massive $50.5-extension over seven years yet had a sub-par year by his standards (57 tackles, 6.5 sacks.) Kelsay somehow garnered a four-year, $24-million deal from the front office last offseason. His response? Two and a half sacks and a foot injury forcing him to miss two games late in the season and rendered ineffective thereafter. Denny broke his right foot, played in only seven games and had all of one sack. He’s due $2.3-million next season. The uncertainty with the injury could make him a cap casualty, even though the team is in great cap shape.
<o:p> </o:p>
Anthony Hargrove, the talented backup defensive end spelled trouble for opponents on the field. Unfortunately, he was even more trouble off it. He’s a free agent, already suspended for the first four games next season and is a lock to not return to an organization very attentive on high character players.
<o:p> </o:p>
So the question looms, how do the Bills get better at defensive end with so many millions already invested in Schobel, Kelsay and Denney? Even if the Bills decide to add a free agent, a marquee name isn’t coming. <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:City><st1:place>Pittsburgh</st1:place></st1:City>’s Nick Eason, Carolina's Mike Rucker or <st1:City><st1:place>Denver</st1:place></st1:City>’s John Engleberger could be possibilities as lower-tier signees. Jevon Kearse might be a big “name” on the market, but the last thing the Bills need is another costly pass rusher that is porous against the run.
http://assets.espn.go.com/media/nfl/2005/1106/photo/a_rucker_195.jpg
<o:p> </o:p>
A much more likely scenario could see <st1:City><st1:place>Buffalo</st1:place></st1:City> draft a defensive end to groom with a second or one of their pair of third round picks. A guy like USC’s Lawrence Jackson or Virigina Tech’s Chris Ellis could be intriguing in the second round. The NFL is a copycat league and the Giants showed that you can never have too many good pash rushers. Expect the Bills to address defensive end, just don’t expect it to come via any expensive measures.
<o:p> </o:p>
Defensive Tackle: There’s a reason the Bills were eighth from the bottom in the league in rushing yards allowed per game. The middle of the defensive line is simply weak. Larry Tripplett (1 sack) has been a five-year, $17-million bust. He could easily be released before next season. Kyle Williams is intense and plays as hard as anyone on the team, but he’s also undersized and gets pushed off the line by bigger, stronger centers and guards.
<o:p> </o:p>
Promisingly, help could be on the way without having to look too far. John McCargo was a first-round pick by <st1:City><st1:place>Buffalo</st1:place></st1:City> in 2006 and though he hasn’t done much in his two seasons, he demonstrated when given opportunity he’s capable of making big plays, as evidenced by his 2.5 sacks in limited snaps and a few big short-yardage stops late in the season.
<o:p> </o:p>
But even with a bigger role for McCargo, the team undoubtedly needs a more brute presence in the middle. A better nose tackle would get more blockers off are already undersized defensive ends. Corey Williams (Packers) heads the list of defensive tackles hitting the market. His size and speed seem to make him the textbook fit for the club, but he’s going to attract a lot of lucrative offers around the league; which the Bills probably won’t match. A more realistic yet potentially valuable signing could be <st1:City><st1:place>Oakland</st1:place></st1:City>’s Tommy Kelly. He played in only seven games last year before tearing a ligament in his right knee. But given his ability as a quick tackle also good against the run should peak the Bills interest. If the club decides Kelly is too risky, there are several tackles that may get cut before February 29, including John Thorton (<st1:City><st1:place>Cincinnati</st1:place></st1:City>) and Issac Sopoaga (<st1:City><st1:place>San Francisco</st1:place></st1:City>)
http://www.raiders.com/uploadedImages/Team/Players/Kelly_action1.jpg
<o:p> </o:p>
Drafting a defensive tackle early is always an alternative, but it usually takes a few years to see progress at the NFL level; unless the guy is a blue-chip prospect like a Tommie Harris, Haloti Ngata or Amobi Okoye. There will be no tackles of that quality when <st1:City><st1:place>Buffalo</st1:place></st1:City> picks at 11. Expect them to address this position with a middle of the road free agent, and possibly a mid-round draft choice.
<o:p> </o:p>
Linebacker: Paul Posluszny showed excellent promise at middle linebacker for <st1:City><st1:place>Buffalo</st1:place></st1:City> before breaking his forearm in week three against <st1:place>New England</st1:place>. John DiGiorgio was more than adequate as a backup. Between the two the Bills should be set in the middle. Angelo Crowell didn’t have quite the impact season many hoped for, but still had 126 tackles, two sacks and an interception. Not only is Crowell valuable to the team currently, but extending his contract (set to expire after 2008) should take high precedence.
<o:p> </o:p>
The obvious weakness of this unit is linebacker Keith Ellison. He’s not physical enough to take on the more powerful runners in this league and despite having a lot of athleticism, has struggled mightily in pass coverage. The Bills unmistakably need a linebacker of impact value to make the unit more viable, and will certainly take a long look at free agency to do it.
<o:p> </o:p>
Lance Briggs is without doubt the cream of the free agent linebacking crop. The problem is with the Bills running a cash-to-cap system, they’ll never be able to find the money for him. Signing Briggs and giving him $35-million in guarantees would eat most if not all their entire cash-to-cap for 2008, going by how they elect to spend their funds. Briggs is sure to get a heavy dose of bottomless pocketed owners pursuing him once February 29 hits. Don’t count on the Ralph Wilson being among them.
http://www.azcentral.com/sports/pics/1211cardspace-autosized258.jpg
<o:p> </o:p>
A more rational option that could do the Bills just fine would be <st1:State><st1:place>Arizona</st1:place></st1:State> linebacker Calvin Pace. With the Cards’ franchise tagging Carlos Dansby, Pace is set to hit the market. At 27-years old and coming off a 98 tackle, 6.5 sack performance, Pace would be exactly what the Bills need. A Pace/Crowell/Posluszny tandem would make offenses take notice. Other, less expensive options could be Boss Bailey (Lions) or Shante Orr (Texans).
<o:p> </o:p>
The club would love seeing elite prospect prospect Keith Rivers fall to them with the 11<SUP>th</SUP> pick, but odds of him getting past <st1:City><st1:place>Cincinnati</st1:place></st1:City> and <st1:City><st1:place>New Orleans</st1:place></st1:City> before <st1:City><st1:place>Buffalo</st1:place></st1:City> are not good.
<o:p> </o:p>
Cornerback: Don’t anticipate <st1:City><st1:place>Buffalo</st1:place></st1:City> doing much at all this offseason with their cornerbacks. The team likes Terrence McGee and Jabrari Greer as their starters, and Kiwaukee Thomas as the nickel corner. Ashton Youboty, who hasn’t played much and struggled a lot through two years, could still be in the mix. The problem with this team isn’t the corners, it’s the front seven and that should be dispatched before disturbing the backfield. If the Bills make any moves at corner, it’ll probably come by way of a low-key free agent or late round draft pick.
<o:p> </o:p>
Safety: The Bills also will probably stand firm at safety. Donte Whitner hasn’t been the game-changing playmaker the team hoped when taking him eighth overall in 2006, but he certainly isn’t going anywhere after only two seasons. The team likes his leadership abilities in the locker room, and his game still has plenty of room to grow. Ko Simpson should be back and healthy from the broken foot he suffered in the first week of the season. George Wilson played well enough in his place to earn the team’s confidence as a backup. Bryan Scott was a mid-season pickup who also played well when pressed into duty. Don’t expect any noteworthy movement at safety.
http://buffalobillsreview.com/images/bills-defense.jpg
<o:p> </o:p>
Summary: The secondary is by no means magnificent and won’t win many games by themselves, but they’re also not the Achilles' heel of the defense. If this unit is to be more competitive in 2008, it has to start with the front seven. Too many running backs get to patiently pick their holes running while quarterbacks could often pack lunches in the pocket waiting to find open receivers.
<o:p> </o:p>
Former Gm Marv Levy overvalued Chris Kelsay and Larry Tripplett badly. Their contracts have far exceeded their performance. The team gave up two first day picks in 2006 to get John McCargo. They need to start utilizing him more. Schobel needs to play like he did in 2006; he wasn’t good enough last year.
<o:p> </o:p>
Of course, having more talent around them would help. If the Bills can pick up a good defensive tackle and an outside linebacker who matters before next season and combine with a healthy Posluszny, it could mean a radical defensive improvement.
<o:p> </o:p>
But if Russ Brandon…or it John Guy? Jim Overdorf? Well, if whomever it is calling the free agent/drafting shots either strikes out again (Kelsay, Tripplett) or lies down a bunch of bunts (Ellison, Williams) disguised as starters; it’s going to be a long season yet again. All the offensive talent in the world doesn’t matter when you can’t get your defense off the field and after eight playoff-less seasons, even the most ardent of fans are growing weary.
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p> </o:p>
Defensive End: Of all the positions on this football team, this may be where the Bills are the most powerless. In one hand, Aaron Schobel, Chris Kelsay and Ryan Denney are all good pass rushers; even if they’re stats (10 sacks combined in 2007) are down. On the other, they’re all dreadful against the run. The dilemma lies in so much money being devoted to this trio it’s hard to validate spending significantly more in free agency. Schobel signed a massive $50.5-extension over seven years yet had a sub-par year by his standards (57 tackles, 6.5 sacks.) Kelsay somehow garnered a four-year, $24-million deal from the front office last offseason. His response? Two and a half sacks and a foot injury forcing him to miss two games late in the season and rendered ineffective thereafter. Denny broke his right foot, played in only seven games and had all of one sack. He’s due $2.3-million next season. The uncertainty with the injury could make him a cap casualty, even though the team is in great cap shape.
<o:p> </o:p>
Anthony Hargrove, the talented backup defensive end spelled trouble for opponents on the field. Unfortunately, he was even more trouble off it. He’s a free agent, already suspended for the first four games next season and is a lock to not return to an organization very attentive on high character players.
<o:p> </o:p>
So the question looms, how do the Bills get better at defensive end with so many millions already invested in Schobel, Kelsay and Denney? Even if the Bills decide to add a free agent, a marquee name isn’t coming. <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:City><st1:place>Pittsburgh</st1:place></st1:City>’s Nick Eason, Carolina's Mike Rucker or <st1:City><st1:place>Denver</st1:place></st1:City>’s John Engleberger could be possibilities as lower-tier signees. Jevon Kearse might be a big “name” on the market, but the last thing the Bills need is another costly pass rusher that is porous against the run.
http://assets.espn.go.com/media/nfl/2005/1106/photo/a_rucker_195.jpg
<o:p> </o:p>
A much more likely scenario could see <st1:City><st1:place>Buffalo</st1:place></st1:City> draft a defensive end to groom with a second or one of their pair of third round picks. A guy like USC’s Lawrence Jackson or Virigina Tech’s Chris Ellis could be intriguing in the second round. The NFL is a copycat league and the Giants showed that you can never have too many good pash rushers. Expect the Bills to address defensive end, just don’t expect it to come via any expensive measures.
<o:p> </o:p>
Defensive Tackle: There’s a reason the Bills were eighth from the bottom in the league in rushing yards allowed per game. The middle of the defensive line is simply weak. Larry Tripplett (1 sack) has been a five-year, $17-million bust. He could easily be released before next season. Kyle Williams is intense and plays as hard as anyone on the team, but he’s also undersized and gets pushed off the line by bigger, stronger centers and guards.
<o:p> </o:p>
Promisingly, help could be on the way without having to look too far. John McCargo was a first-round pick by <st1:City><st1:place>Buffalo</st1:place></st1:City> in 2006 and though he hasn’t done much in his two seasons, he demonstrated when given opportunity he’s capable of making big plays, as evidenced by his 2.5 sacks in limited snaps and a few big short-yardage stops late in the season.
<o:p> </o:p>
But even with a bigger role for McCargo, the team undoubtedly needs a more brute presence in the middle. A better nose tackle would get more blockers off are already undersized defensive ends. Corey Williams (Packers) heads the list of defensive tackles hitting the market. His size and speed seem to make him the textbook fit for the club, but he’s going to attract a lot of lucrative offers around the league; which the Bills probably won’t match. A more realistic yet potentially valuable signing could be <st1:City><st1:place>Oakland</st1:place></st1:City>’s Tommy Kelly. He played in only seven games last year before tearing a ligament in his right knee. But given his ability as a quick tackle also good against the run should peak the Bills interest. If the club decides Kelly is too risky, there are several tackles that may get cut before February 29, including John Thorton (<st1:City><st1:place>Cincinnati</st1:place></st1:City>) and Issac Sopoaga (<st1:City><st1:place>San Francisco</st1:place></st1:City>)
http://www.raiders.com/uploadedImages/Team/Players/Kelly_action1.jpg
<o:p> </o:p>
Drafting a defensive tackle early is always an alternative, but it usually takes a few years to see progress at the NFL level; unless the guy is a blue-chip prospect like a Tommie Harris, Haloti Ngata or Amobi Okoye. There will be no tackles of that quality when <st1:City><st1:place>Buffalo</st1:place></st1:City> picks at 11. Expect them to address this position with a middle of the road free agent, and possibly a mid-round draft choice.
<o:p> </o:p>
Linebacker: Paul Posluszny showed excellent promise at middle linebacker for <st1:City><st1:place>Buffalo</st1:place></st1:City> before breaking his forearm in week three against <st1:place>New England</st1:place>. John DiGiorgio was more than adequate as a backup. Between the two the Bills should be set in the middle. Angelo Crowell didn’t have quite the impact season many hoped for, but still had 126 tackles, two sacks and an interception. Not only is Crowell valuable to the team currently, but extending his contract (set to expire after 2008) should take high precedence.
<o:p> </o:p>
The obvious weakness of this unit is linebacker Keith Ellison. He’s not physical enough to take on the more powerful runners in this league and despite having a lot of athleticism, has struggled mightily in pass coverage. The Bills unmistakably need a linebacker of impact value to make the unit more viable, and will certainly take a long look at free agency to do it.
<o:p> </o:p>
Lance Briggs is without doubt the cream of the free agent linebacking crop. The problem is with the Bills running a cash-to-cap system, they’ll never be able to find the money for him. Signing Briggs and giving him $35-million in guarantees would eat most if not all their entire cash-to-cap for 2008, going by how they elect to spend their funds. Briggs is sure to get a heavy dose of bottomless pocketed owners pursuing him once February 29 hits. Don’t count on the Ralph Wilson being among them.
http://www.azcentral.com/sports/pics/1211cardspace-autosized258.jpg
<o:p> </o:p>
A more rational option that could do the Bills just fine would be <st1:State><st1:place>Arizona</st1:place></st1:State> linebacker Calvin Pace. With the Cards’ franchise tagging Carlos Dansby, Pace is set to hit the market. At 27-years old and coming off a 98 tackle, 6.5 sack performance, Pace would be exactly what the Bills need. A Pace/Crowell/Posluszny tandem would make offenses take notice. Other, less expensive options could be Boss Bailey (Lions) or Shante Orr (Texans).
<o:p> </o:p>
The club would love seeing elite prospect prospect Keith Rivers fall to them with the 11<SUP>th</SUP> pick, but odds of him getting past <st1:City><st1:place>Cincinnati</st1:place></st1:City> and <st1:City><st1:place>New Orleans</st1:place></st1:City> before <st1:City><st1:place>Buffalo</st1:place></st1:City> are not good.
<o:p> </o:p>
Cornerback: Don’t anticipate <st1:City><st1:place>Buffalo</st1:place></st1:City> doing much at all this offseason with their cornerbacks. The team likes Terrence McGee and Jabrari Greer as their starters, and Kiwaukee Thomas as the nickel corner. Ashton Youboty, who hasn’t played much and struggled a lot through two years, could still be in the mix. The problem with this team isn’t the corners, it’s the front seven and that should be dispatched before disturbing the backfield. If the Bills make any moves at corner, it’ll probably come by way of a low-key free agent or late round draft pick.
<o:p> </o:p>
Safety: The Bills also will probably stand firm at safety. Donte Whitner hasn’t been the game-changing playmaker the team hoped when taking him eighth overall in 2006, but he certainly isn’t going anywhere after only two seasons. The team likes his leadership abilities in the locker room, and his game still has plenty of room to grow. Ko Simpson should be back and healthy from the broken foot he suffered in the first week of the season. George Wilson played well enough in his place to earn the team’s confidence as a backup. Bryan Scott was a mid-season pickup who also played well when pressed into duty. Don’t expect any noteworthy movement at safety.
http://buffalobillsreview.com/images/bills-defense.jpg
<o:p> </o:p>
Summary: The secondary is by no means magnificent and won’t win many games by themselves, but they’re also not the Achilles' heel of the defense. If this unit is to be more competitive in 2008, it has to start with the front seven. Too many running backs get to patiently pick their holes running while quarterbacks could often pack lunches in the pocket waiting to find open receivers.
<o:p> </o:p>
Former Gm Marv Levy overvalued Chris Kelsay and Larry Tripplett badly. Their contracts have far exceeded their performance. The team gave up two first day picks in 2006 to get John McCargo. They need to start utilizing him more. Schobel needs to play like he did in 2006; he wasn’t good enough last year.
<o:p> </o:p>
Of course, having more talent around them would help. If the Bills can pick up a good defensive tackle and an outside linebacker who matters before next season and combine with a healthy Posluszny, it could mean a radical defensive improvement.
<o:p> </o:p>
But if Russ Brandon…or it John Guy? Jim Overdorf? Well, if whomever it is calling the free agent/drafting shots either strikes out again (Kelsay, Tripplett) or lies down a bunch of bunts (Ellison, Williams) disguised as starters; it’s going to be a long season yet again. All the offensive talent in the world doesn’t matter when you can’t get your defense off the field and after eight playoff-less seasons, even the most ardent of fans are growing weary.