patmoran2006
02-21-2008, 05:11 PM
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2008/02/20/ramblings/four-downs/6121/
by Sean McCormick
Buffalo Bills
Three Imaginary (Front Office) Boys
The biggest news in Buffalo is not the passing of another season without a playoff appearance (eight such years in a row now), or even the unexpected re-retirement of general manager Marv Levy. It’s the ominous news that the team will begin playing home games in Toronto. The Bills will play five regular season games and three preseason games in the Rogers Centre over the next five seasons. Owner Ralph Wilson has been quick to insist that the decision is not a precursor to franchise relocation, but rather an attempt to strengthen the team’s Canadian fan base and to draw Canadian corporate sponsorship to Ralph Wilson Stadium. However, with Ted Rogers, the owner of the Blue Jays and the Rogers Centre, leading an investment group looking to bring an NFL franchise to Toronto, and with the Bills set to be sold to the highest bidder after Wilson’s death, it would seem more likely that this represents Wilson’s attempt to keep the team in the region after he dies.
Speaking of wizened old men, Levy decided to pack it in after two years, adding a curious postscript to his impressive legacy with the team. Levy was considered a questionable choice when he was hired, but he picked a competent coach in Dick Jauron, presided over two modestly impressive drafts, and made some decent free agent decisions. There is no question that the Bills are better now than they were three years ago, but it remains to be seen if they have added enough pieces to return to playoff contention. Wilson is retiring the general manager position altogether; Russ Brandon will act as chief operating officer, while John Guy and Tom Modrak will handle the bulk of the personnel decisions.
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The first decision that they need to make is what to do about the quarterback situation. If only all decisions were so easy. Our numbers suggest that J.P. Losman was actually [U]a bit more effective (http://www.quantcast.com/p-01-0VIaSjnOLg?F?FPRIVATETYPE=PICT;ALT=Quantcast) than Trent Edwards, but considering that Edwards was a rookie and Losman only plays one on television, it’s clear where the upside lies. Edwards showed a marked preference for short, safe passes — at times he looked like Tom Brady before Tom Brady became *Tom Brady!* — but even so, his completion percentage hovered around 57 percent on the season. Edwards’ accuracy was questioned when he arrived in the NFL from Stanford, and he’s going to have to improve in that department if he is going to be successful over the long haul.
Who Could Leave?
Losman has made it known that he would rather be traded than play out the final year of his contract, but that’s not likely to happen. He wouldn’t have much trade value even in a weak year for quarterbacks, and it’s cheaper to keep him on the roster than to go out and find a veteran backup in free agency. Peerless Price ended the year with a grand total of 13 receptions and a sterling –13.8% DVOA (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/wr.php). He’s finished in Buffalo and, most probably, on his way out of the league. Jason Webster opened the season at one of the starting corner spots, but he is an unrestricted free agent and unlikely to return. The rest of the impending free agents are strictly reserve types.
Who Should They Sign?
(49 players signed, $32.5 million under the cap)
Despite seeming to be perfectly average — Buffalo ranked 16th in DVOA (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef.php) against both the run and the pass — the Bills managed to give up an average of 33.92 yards per drive (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestats.php), worst in the league, so the defense figures to be an area that is targeted for improvement. Buffalo has a lot of money to play with, and they could make a run at several of the top-tier cornerbacks, with Marcus Trufant and Asante Samuel seemingly the best fits. Terrence McGee was able to step in and take over for the departed Nate Clements last season, but the team had a terrible time covering No. 2 receivers (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef.php), so adding a top corner and shifting McGee back to the No. 2 spot could close the coverage gap. Defensive tackle was a need area even before Anthony Hargrove decided to go out and get himself suspended for the season, and someone like Green Bay’s Corey Williams would fit the mold.
On the offensive side of the ball, a big, physical receiver like D.J. Hackett would make a lot of sense. Hackett would give Trent Edwards a bigger target in the short passing game, and would also allow Josh Reed to return to the slot.
by Sean McCormick
Buffalo Bills
Three Imaginary (Front Office) Boys
The biggest news in Buffalo is not the passing of another season without a playoff appearance (eight such years in a row now), or even the unexpected re-retirement of general manager Marv Levy. It’s the ominous news that the team will begin playing home games in Toronto. The Bills will play five regular season games and three preseason games in the Rogers Centre over the next five seasons. Owner Ralph Wilson has been quick to insist that the decision is not a precursor to franchise relocation, but rather an attempt to strengthen the team’s Canadian fan base and to draw Canadian corporate sponsorship to Ralph Wilson Stadium. However, with Ted Rogers, the owner of the Blue Jays and the Rogers Centre, leading an investment group looking to bring an NFL franchise to Toronto, and with the Bills set to be sold to the highest bidder after Wilson’s death, it would seem more likely that this represents Wilson’s attempt to keep the team in the region after he dies.
Speaking of wizened old men, Levy decided to pack it in after two years, adding a curious postscript to his impressive legacy with the team. Levy was considered a questionable choice when he was hired, but he picked a competent coach in Dick Jauron, presided over two modestly impressive drafts, and made some decent free agent decisions. There is no question that the Bills are better now than they were three years ago, but it remains to be seen if they have added enough pieces to return to playoff contention. Wilson is retiring the general manager position altogether; Russ Brandon will act as chief operating officer, while John Guy and Tom Modrak will handle the bulk of the personnel decisions.
<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width=166 border=1><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=center>Your Ad Here (http://www.adbrite.com/mb/commerce/purchase_form.php?opid=306569&afsid=1)
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=center>[/URL]
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
The first decision that they need to make is what to do about the quarterback situation. If only all decisions were so easy. Our numbers suggest that J.P. Losman was actually [U]a bit more effective (http://www.quantcast.com/p-01-0VIaSjnOLg?F?FPRIVATETYPE=PICT;ALT=Quantcast) than Trent Edwards, but considering that Edwards was a rookie and Losman only plays one on television, it’s clear where the upside lies. Edwards showed a marked preference for short, safe passes — at times he looked like Tom Brady before Tom Brady became *Tom Brady!* — but even so, his completion percentage hovered around 57 percent on the season. Edwards’ accuracy was questioned when he arrived in the NFL from Stanford, and he’s going to have to improve in that department if he is going to be successful over the long haul.
Who Could Leave?
Losman has made it known that he would rather be traded than play out the final year of his contract, but that’s not likely to happen. He wouldn’t have much trade value even in a weak year for quarterbacks, and it’s cheaper to keep him on the roster than to go out and find a veteran backup in free agency. Peerless Price ended the year with a grand total of 13 receptions and a sterling –13.8% DVOA (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/wr.php). He’s finished in Buffalo and, most probably, on his way out of the league. Jason Webster opened the season at one of the starting corner spots, but he is an unrestricted free agent and unlikely to return. The rest of the impending free agents are strictly reserve types.
Who Should They Sign?
(49 players signed, $32.5 million under the cap)
Despite seeming to be perfectly average — Buffalo ranked 16th in DVOA (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef.php) against both the run and the pass — the Bills managed to give up an average of 33.92 yards per drive (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestats.php), worst in the league, so the defense figures to be an area that is targeted for improvement. Buffalo has a lot of money to play with, and they could make a run at several of the top-tier cornerbacks, with Marcus Trufant and Asante Samuel seemingly the best fits. Terrence McGee was able to step in and take over for the departed Nate Clements last season, but the team had a terrible time covering No. 2 receivers (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef.php), so adding a top corner and shifting McGee back to the No. 2 spot could close the coverage gap. Defensive tackle was a need area even before Anthony Hargrove decided to go out and get himself suspended for the season, and someone like Green Bay’s Corey Williams would fit the mold.
On the offensive side of the ball, a big, physical receiver like D.J. Hackett would make a lot of sense. Hackett would give Trent Edwards a bigger target in the short passing game, and would also allow Josh Reed to return to the slot.