Trading out of Round 1 entirely: An option?

[kernowboy]

I imagine there will be plenty of responses from those who don’t read this in full but oh well.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p>
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If we had the option of trading out of R1 all together, should we consider it? The situation as I see it is this<o:p></o:p>
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1) No11 is a bad pick. Unless a player falls to us, we are possibly going to end up reaching.<o:p></o:p>
2) Many commentators have mentioned that this year is a year when the talent is quite even. Rivers is the top LB, but is he head and shoulders above Connor, Henderson, Adibi etc, and is Kelly massively better than Sweed, Hardy, Doucet etc? The same question could be asked of several players at DT<o:p></o:p>
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By trading out of R1, we could almost certainly get a high R2 pick, a R3 or R4 pick and then the R1 pick of the trading team for next year (more here if you scroll down)<o:p></o:p>
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Let’s consider hypothetical situations<o:p></o:p>
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<?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">St Louis</st1:place></st1:City> Rams<o:p></o:p>
After drafting Ellis or Dorsey, they still need a LT to avoid Bulger getting killed. Pace can’t cut it and neither can Barron. At No11, Ryan Clady is available. They are unlikely to be able to get Michael Oher next year, so trade with us as they need Bulger safe now.<o:p></o:p>
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No32 becomes Dan Connor, No41 becomes Limus Sweed, No71 & No72, becomes Dustin Keller and Dre Moore<o:p></o:p>
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<st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Atlanta</st1:City></st1:place> Falcons<o:p></o:p>
After drafting McFadden or Jake Long, they still need their QB of the future. Brohm is there, and <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Tampa</st1:place></st1:City> is circling. Not convinced by the rest of the QB class they trade with us.<o:p></o:p>
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No33 becomes Pat Sims, No41 becomes Erin Henderson, No71 & No72 becomes Adarius Bowman and Jermichael Finley.<o:p></o:p>
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<st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Kansas City</st1:City></st1:place> Chiefs<o:p></o:p>
Having missed out on Jake Long and taken a DT, they still require a LT. Again Clady is available and with the Broncos licking their lips they jump in and grab our spot.<o:p></o:p>
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No35 becomes Fred Davis, No41 becomes Xavier Adibi, No71 & No72 becomes Trevor Laws and Jordy Nelson<o:p></o:p>
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I have just considered the DT, LB, TE and WR positions, but we still have an extra R4 pick. In each case we’ve selected a decent player. Whilst it’s all hypothetical, each could help our team and is not beyond the bounds of possibility.<o:p></o:p>
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Move forward to 2009. Angelo Crowell hasn’t resigned and Lee Evans has opted out of his contract. We can only franchise one. A lot of tags occurred this year because the average salary at certain positions like S was low ($4.4m). Evans and Crowell are at positions which are high ticket by comparison.<o:p></o:p>
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With the extra R1 pick from Rams/Chiefs/Falcons, we could do the following.<o:p></o:p>
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1) Replace Evans with Michael Crabtree of <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Texas</st1:place></st1:State> Tech (6ft3, 222lbs, 4.49)<o:p></o:p>
2) Replace Crowell with Sean Lee of <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:PlaceName w:st="on">Penn</st1:PlaceName> <st1:PlaceType w:st="on">State</st1:PlaceType></st1:place> or a MLB and move Poz out<o:p></o:p>
3) Draft a top CB like Malcolm Jenkins<o:p></o:p>
4) Package two R1 and move up to get a top DE like Tyson Jackson or George Selvie.<o:p></o:p>
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The question that has to be asked is – do we think the player we take at 11, be head and shoulders above a player in the same position we can draft 21 or 22 places below? Do we think that this guy is so good as to be better than getting a further two picks including a R1 in 2009 when we may need to look at the future of some of our star players?<o:p></o:p>
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Personally in this very deep draft, I think we should consider this option. We can still easily have an outstanding draft and more importantly get some real difference makers in 2009. Whilst a team may have a Browns type resurgence, this tends to be the exception not the rule.<o:p></o:p>
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Wouldn’t it be great to finish this season with 10-6, a playoff appearance, and knowing we enter the 2009 draft with a pick at say, No5 and No22, able to draft players who can take us all the way in 2009.<o:p></o:p>
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Just a thought.<o:p></o:p>

[THATHURMANATOR]

have you seen the last 7 or so #11 picks. Pretty much all of them are solid players.

[patmoran2006]

It's pretty simple to me, provided he's there.

The past two years, and almost every year.. The position that seems to make a biggest impact as a rookie is LB. Willis was a monster and the 2007 NFL defensive ROY. Beason was 3rd in the NFL in tackles as a rookie.

DeMarco Ryans made a huge impact for the Texans and was the 2006 NFL D- ROY.

We CLEARLY need a better LB than Keith Ellison. Keith Rivers is the atheltic type of LB this team needs. If he's on the board at 11, to me it's a NO BRAINER.

[jamze132]

have you seen the last 7 or so #11 picks. Pretty much all of them are solid players.
I agree. I say we stay put and pick BPA.

[Jan Reimers]

If we were starved for picks, I could see it. But we have 10 overall, including 4 in the top 78. And I think we can get a really good player at 11.

[kernowboy]

But Pat

In 2006, DeMarco Ryans was picked at 33, behind Ernie Syms at 9, Chad Greenaway at 17 and Bobby Carpenter at 18. D'Qwell Jackson at 34 has also been great.

In 2007, Willis was superb but might he have been given a bigger run for his money by Poz picked 23 places lower if he'd not been injured. How far behind was Jon Beason picked 14 places lower ... or Justin Durrant picked 37 places lower who had a superb season with Jacksonville?

Rivers will greatly improve the Linebackers but so will Connor, Henderson and Adibi and if that gives us additional picks who can also become superb players.

With Rivers we won't get to the SuperBowl next year. However with the selection of someone like Connor and then two top selections in the 2009 draft we may just the season after.

Rivers is a very good player but he is not head and shoulders above everyone else as Patrick Willis was in 2007.

if we get offered a radical opportunity to trade down in a deep class and get extra high picks in 2009 we should not dismiss it out of hand

[kernowboy]

It's pretty simple to me, provided he's there.

The past two years, and almost every year.. The position that seems to make a biggest impact as a rookie is LB. Willis was a monster and the 2007 NFL defensive ROY. Beason was 3rd in the NFL in tackles as a rookie.

DeMarco Ryans made a huge impact for the Texans and was the 2006 NFL D- ROY.

We CLEARLY need a better LB than Keith Ellison. Keith Rivers is the atheltic type of LB this team needs. If he's on the board at 11, to me it's a NO BRAINER.

And if Rivers is gone?

[patmoran2006]

Getting an offer you cant refuse is one thing.. and if we were thin on picks that's another thing.

But we need impact players and IF our scouting dep't is on the ball, you have a better chance at getting an impact player at 11 than in the second round.

Matter of fact, given the makeup of this team, I"d draft Rivers at 11 and then take a run at moving UP for Fred Davis, his teammate if he's still around near the end of round one, like we did for McCargo in 2006

Those are two GOOD players who we need.

[yordad]

Maybe our 11th (1250pts) and 72nd (230pts) to the Cowboys for 22 (780pts) and 28 (660pts). That leaves us with 22, 28, 41, and 71.

[gr8slayer]

I'd take it, the draft is won and lost between rounds 3-7.

[gr8slayer]

Maybe our 11th (1250pts) and 72nd (230pts) to the Cowboys for 22 (780pts) and 28 (660pts). That leaves us with 22, 28, 41, and 71.
Unless McFadden drops to eleven Dallas has no interest in trading.

[patmoran2006]

And if Rivers is gone?
I said provided he's there.

I woudlnt be opposed to trading down a little and getting one of the top corners, IF Rivers is gone and we go out and address WR via FA in a big way..

I think we draft Rivers first, fall back on Sweed or Kelly as a 2nd option, and unfotunately, I think a CB is a higher priority to the team than I think it should be.

[colin]

if we trade i want us to be a net buyer of higher picks.

now that might mean multiple lower 1sts, and packaging up late picks for higher ones, but we saw this year our depth is pretty solid -- we just need some implact playmakers.

wr
de
dt
olb
te
corner

between FA and the draft we need 4 or 5 solid guys for those positions. we can do it all this offseason if we really want to.

[kernowboy]

We see a lot of teams trade out of R1 and then end up with a stunning selection the following year.

I seem to remember in 2006 the defensive player of the year was actually the 6th player selected at his position, the above mentioned DeMeco Ryans behind Hawk, Sims, Greenway, Carpenter and Lawson. One of the top guys came in the 7th Round.

In 2004, the Cowboys gave up their R1 to us for JP Losman. They missed Steven Jackson but got Julius Jones and the following year used our pick on DeMarcus Ware ..... who are now the better team?

The Pats have done it for years. If they hadn't been naughty they'd have had No7 and No31 despite a 18-1 season.

Trading down can be as beneficial as trading up especially if the talent level is relatively even and looking at the players in this years draft I can easily see that there are players in Round2 who can easily be as good a pro's as the socalled can't miss players of Round1

Bobby Carpenter is now lining up as a reserve ILB despite being selected higher than Ryans

[DMBcrew36]

Maybe our 11th (1250pts) and 72nd (230pts) to the Cowboys for 22 (780pts) and 28 (660pts). That leaves us with 22, 28, 41, and 71.

I'd take that for sure.



I think trading out of the first round, or trading down in general depends on what is done in free agency. If the Bills could get that big WR and run-stuffing DT in free agency, it would give him more options in the draft.

[kernowboy]

The additional question is looking at 2009, how we might plan for the possible departure of Evans and Crowell and level of ability of players available.

Is Crabtree going to be a better WR than any in this class?
Will Faurinatis be a better LB?
Can we say Jenkins will a superior CB?

We may be able to draft players who will make us better, but by making sure we can really move up in the 2009 draft, we may just land players who can be simply outstanding and not just help us make the Playoffs but the SuperBowl. And we can do this by still be able to draft really good players in this years draft.

With so many picks we can actually trade out of R1, get a potentially high R1 pick in 2009 yet still be able to trade back into R1 to get someone like Dan Connor

If you are given the option to have a finishing record of 10-6 and a playoff appearance by either of the following:

Draft Keith Rivers at 11

or

Trade down to R2 but then back into R1 to draft Dan Connor giving up a R4 that we got from the original trade and get an extra R1 player in 2009 who will be an outstanding WR like Crabtree or a CB like Jenkins plus our own R1 pick who can become a top DE or LB like Sean Lee

Trade down with Falcons, get their R2 and R4 in 2008 plus their R1 in 2009.
Trade up with Chargers using the Falcons R2 and R4 picks for the Chargers R1 and get Dan Connor - then a DT, WR, TE etc

Which way do you go?

[yordad]

Unless McFadden drops to eleven Dallas has no interest in trading.Stranger things have happened.

[gr8slayer]

Stranger things have happened.
Unless these character issues come back to bite him in the ass he's going in the top five. I still don't have him as being the top RB in this class but it's hard to argue with his body of work.

[Don't Panic]

And if Rivers is gone?

I'm down with a trade down then... I agree with you that we will probably reach at #11 otherwise, but I also agree with Pat that if Rivers is there, you take him and don't think twice.

[TedMock]

I say go for it provided the opportunity is there. This team, no doubt, has some pressing needs. Lucky for us, the draft this year is providing a ton of quality in areas we're weak. Rounds 2-5 are loaded for us.

If we stay at 11, I'm with most in that we should go with Rivers. Of course I'd be fine with a top WR or DT (Ellis, if by some miracle he's still around would be the no-brainer).

For me, this team needs a WLB, DT, TE and WR more than anything else. A CB and DE would be nice too, but I feel they're slightly less pressing. Assuming we land an extra 2nd rounder out of the deal and miss out on Rivers and thus, possibly missing out on Fred Davis in the 2nd - depending on how the picks go down, there are still a ton of guys who should greatly improve our team. I leave Connor out of the equation because he's an inside guy and I don't think we want to move he or Poz over to the WILL. I love the guy, but I just don't see him as our choice at LB. So, guys I like in rounds 2-5 are...

OLB's - Xavier Adibi, Erin Henderson
WR's - James Hardy, DeSean Jackson, Mario Manningham, Early Doucet (I'm assuming that 1 or 2 will go in the 1st with Sweed and Kelly).
DT's - Dre Moore, Red Bryant
TE's - Fred Davis, Martellius Bennet, John Carlson, Jemichael Finley

CB's - Patrick Lee, Brandon Flowers,
DE's - Chris Harrington, Chase Ortiz

I'm a fan of college football and a season ticket holder, but I certainly don't watch every game. There are folks on the board who know far more than I do about the current college players. Please let me know your thoughts.

[kernowboy]

TedMock

I think Connor could be a SLB allowing us to move Crowell back to WLB.

In terms of depth, this is one of the better drafts in many years and even if we don't draft the 'experts' or consensus No1 pick at each position we can still get a hell of a player. After all Ryans was the 6th LB taken in 2006.

And with 2009 being a narrower draft in terms of over quality unless a load of juniors coming out, the more high picks we assemble there, the better and quicker we will get to the Super Bowl