Rookie quarterbacks

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  • Philagape
    WIN NOW
    • Jul 2002
    • 19432
    #1

    Rookie quarterbacks

    I have researched the rookie stats for 41 QBs going back to the 80s. To qualify, they had to have at least 100 attempts and be true rookies (no USFL or CFL guys).
    The average rookie season:
    52 completion percentage
    6.26 YPA
    3.3 touchdown %
    4.1 interception %
    65.6 rating

    Now that group included a lot of short-career busts, so I whittled it down to the following QBs: Aikman, Bledsoe, Kerry Collins, Cutler, Elway, Esiason, Everett, Jeff George, Kosar, Leftwich, Lomax, Majkowski, both Mannings, Marino, Jim McMahon, McNabb, Peete, Plummer, Roethlisberger, Testaverde.
    Their average rookie season:
    53.1 completion percentage
    6.6 YPA
    3.9 touchdown %
    4.0 interception %
    70.4 rating

    So when we measure up Edwards’ numbers:
    56.1 completion percentage
    6.1 YPA
    2.6 touchdown %
    3.0 interception %
    70.4 rating
    He did better than the overall rookie average and had the same rating as the whittled-down group. Against both groups he had better completion percentage and lower interception rate, with a lower YPA and lower touchdown rate. The production numbers (yards per attempt and touchdown rate) are the two stats that depend more on other factors in the offense, while the efficiency numbers (completions and interceptions) depend more on the QB himself.

    Now I’ve said before that stats tell only part of the story, so this is for all you stat freaks who need hard numbers to go by.

    Source: pro-football-reference.com.
    "It is better to be divided by truth than to be united by error." -- Martin Luther

    "Those who appease the crocodile will simply be eaten last." -- Winston Churchill

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    2004 BZ Big Money League Champion
    Tags: None
  • The King
    Without me it's just Awe so
    • Jun 2004
    • 42380
    #2
    Re: Rookie quarterbacks

    The one thing that stands fresh in my mind still is how Trent handled himself on that opening drive against NE. He did something no one had done since Drew torched them 31-0. Sure the Pats adjusted but it was remarkable to see a rookie come in and play NE with that kind of confidence.
    I remember that one fateful day when Coach took me aside. I knew what was coming. "You don't have to tell me," I said. "I'm off the team, aren't I?"
    "Well," said Coach, "you never were really ON the team. You made that uniform you're wearing out of rags and towels, and your helmet is a toy space helmet.
    You show up at practice and then either steal the ball and make us chase you to get it back, or you try to tackle people at inappropriate times."
    It was all     true what he was saying. And yet, I thought something is brewing inside the head of this Coach.
    He sees something in me, some kind of raw talent that he can     mold. But that's when I felt the handcuffs go on.


    • 👍 1

    Comment

    • Mr. Miyagi
      Lecter's Little Bitch

      • Sep 2002
      • 53616
      #3
      Re: Rookie quarterbacks

      Just for ****s and giggles, what do John Beck's numbers look like?

      Comment

      • The King
        Without me it's just Awe so
        • Jun 2004
        • 42380
        #4
        Re: Rookie quarterbacks

        Originally posted by Mr. Miyagi
        Just for ****s and giggles, what do John Beck's numbers look like?
        I remember that one fateful day when Coach took me aside. I knew what was coming. "You don't have to tell me," I said. "I'm off the team, aren't I?"
        "Well," said Coach, "you never were really ON the team. You made that uniform you're wearing out of rags and towels, and your helmet is a toy space helmet.
        You show up at practice and then either steal the ball and make us chase you to get it back, or you try to tackle people at inappropriate times."
        It was all         true what he was saying. And yet, I thought something is brewing inside the head of this Coach.
        He sees something in me, some kind of raw talent that he can         mold. But that's when I felt the handcuffs go on.


        Comment

        • Jan Reimers
          Thank You, Terry and Kim, for Saving the Bills. Now, Work on the Sabres.
          • May 2003
          • 17353
          #5
          Re: Rookie quarterbacks

          It's interesting - but basically irrelevant at this point - to look at comparable numbers for JP. If you assume 2005 to be his "rookie year" (he was hurt and played very little in 2004), you find:

          Completion Percentage: 49.6%
          YPA: 5.9
          TD %: 3.5
          INT % 3.5
          Rating: 64.9

          So with the exception of TD%, TE grades out better.
          Should have known, way back in 1960 when we drafted Richie Lucas Number 1, that this would be a long, hard ride. But who could have known it would be THIS bad?

          Comment

          • Kenny
            Registered User
            • Aug 2004
            • 2728
            #6
            Re: Rookie quarterbacks

            Originally posted by Jan Reimers
            It's interesting - but basically irrelevant at this point - to look at comparable numbers for JP. If you assume 2005 to be his "rookie year" (he was hurt and played very little in 2004), you find:

            Completion Percentage: 49.6%
            YPA: 5.9
            TD %: 3.5
            INT % 3.5
            Rating: 64.9

            So with the exception of TD%, TE grades out better.
            yeah... I mean who cares about scoring right?

            But agreed, these stats mean absolutely nothing (to me at least)... And I still dont get what you guys saw in Edwards last season. Not saying he sucked, but he certainly wasnt very good.

            Our offense was dead last (or very near it), and you can blame JP all you want, -but at the end of the day Edwards didnt make it any better (in terms of scoring points to win games).
            Sure Edwards is a rookie, -but he also looked like one to me. Until he shows me more than that one throw (last throw against Washington, in Washington), Im still going to question him and his ability.

            And yes, I know I sound like a pessimist, -but with our QB problem stemming soooooo long, can you really blame me?

            Comment

            • The King
              Without me it's just Awe so
              • Jun 2004
              • 42380
              #7
              Re: Rookie quarterbacks

              Originally posted by Kenny

              Our offense was dead last (or very near it), and you can blame JP all you want, -but at the end of the day Edwards didnt make it any better (in terms of scoring points to win games).
              Look at Miami game 1 and Miami game 2.
              I remember that one fateful day when Coach took me aside. I knew what was coming. "You don't have to tell me," I said. "I'm off the team, aren't I?"
              "Well," said Coach, "you never were really ON the team. You made that uniform you're wearing out of rags and towels, and your helmet is a toy space helmet.
              You show up at practice and then either steal the ball and make us chase you to get it back, or you try to tackle people at inappropriate times."
              It was all               true what he was saying. And yet, I thought something is brewing inside the head of this Coach.
              He sees something in me, some kind of raw talent that he can               mold. But that's when I felt the handcuffs go on.


              Comment

              • hydro
                Registered User
                • Oct 2005
                • 20160
                #8
                Re: Rookie quarterbacks

                Originally posted by Kenny
                yeah... I mean who cares about scoring right?

                But agreed, these stats mean absolutely nothing (to me at least)... And I still dont get what you guys saw in Edwards last season. Not saying he sucked, but he certainly wasnt very good. Most people saw a QB that made better decisions and had better pocket presence. JP had 30+ games to take all doubt away and he failed.

                Our offense was dead last (or very near it), and you can blame JP all you want, -but at the end of the day Edwards didnt make it any better (in terms of scoring points to win games). No, but he was just as good as a 30+ game starter who showed attributes that JP never has.
                Sure Edwards is a rookie, -but he also looked like one to me. Until he shows me more than that one throw (last throw against Washington, in Washington), Im still going to question him and his ability. You are only helping the Edwards backers by stating that he played like a rookie. Because guess what, he was a ROOKIE!

                And yes, I know I sound like a pessimist, -but with our QB problem stemming soooooo long, can you really blame me?
                BERNIAC!
                • 👍 1

                Comment

                • Kenny
                  Registered User
                  • Aug 2004
                  • 2728
                  #9
                  Re: Rookie quarterbacks

                  Most people saw a QB that made better decisions and had better pocket presence. JP had 30+ games to take all doubt away and he failed.

                  Im not comparing TE to JP... Im well into agreement that JP is a failure in Buffalo. But just because he's a failure, doesnt mean we have to hold TE to those standards.

                  No, but he was just as good as a 30+ game starter who showed attributes that JP never has.

                  (see my comment above)

                  You are only helping the Edwards backers by stating that he played like a rookie. Because guess what, he was a ROOKIE!

                  Exactly... he looked like a rookie. Dont know why people can say he's going to be this 'great' QB yet. He may very well be, -but I dont see it yet.

                  Comment

                  • justasportsfan
                    Registered User
                    • Jul 2002
                    • 71579
                    #10
                    Re: Rookie quarterbacks

                    Originally posted by MBBedard
                    Look at Miami game 1 and Miami game 2.
                    different players. Miami wasn't the same team we played in the first game. If you want to make a more accurate comaprrison, check out the the jets game. 3 pts. ( a little less than 3 periods) vs. 10 (a little over 1 period)
                    sacrifice1
                    https://theinterviewwithgod.com/video/

                    Comment

                    • ddaryl
                      Everything I post is sexual inuendo
                      • Jan 2005
                      • 10714
                      #11
                      Re: Rookie quarterbacks

                      never mind Jay hit JP's numbers....

                      Edwards does show promise... but he needs to up that production this year.. no regressing, I'm tired of regression, it leads to aggression

                      • 👍 2

                      Comment

                      • justasportsfan
                        Registered User
                        • Jul 2002
                        • 71579
                        #12
                        Re: Rookie quarterbacks

                        Originally posted by ddaryl
                        never mind Jay hit JP's numbers....

                        Edwards does show promise... but he needs to up that production this year.. no regressing, I'm tired of regression, it leads to aggression
                        TE had a better Ol than JP's rookie year.
                        sacrifice1
                        https://theinterviewwithgod.com/video/

                        Comment

                        • hydro
                          Registered User
                          • Oct 2005
                          • 20160
                          #13
                          Re: Rookie quarterbacks

                          Originally posted by Kenny
                          Most people saw a QB that made better decisions and had better pocket presence. JP had 30+ games to take all doubt away and he failed.

                          Im not comparing TE to JP... Im well into agreement that JP is a failure in Buffalo. But just because he's a failure, doesnt mean we have to hold TE to those standards.

                          No, but he was just as good as a 30+ game starter who showed attributes that JP never has.

                          (see my comment above)

                          You are only helping the Edwards backers by stating that he played like a rookie. Because guess what, he was a ROOKIE!

                          Exactly... he looked like a rookie. Dont know why people can say he's going to be this 'great' QB yet. He may very well be, -but I dont see it yet.
                          I have stated this before. Most TE backers aren't bowing in his presence. Only the HHuricane's and Pat Moran's of the board are touting him as our next Jim Kelly. I am past JP and see things in Edwards that I think can't be built upon, but I certainly don't think he is a sure shot franchise QB.
                          BERNIAC!
                          • 👍 1

                          Comment

                          • ddaryl
                            Everything I post is sexual inuendo
                            • Jan 2005
                            • 10714
                            #14
                            Re: Rookie quarterbacks

                            Originally posted by justasportsfan
                            TE had a better Ol than JP's rookie year.
                            I wasn't going to open that can of worms here... figured I just stay on the positive choo choo.

                            Comment

                            • justasportsfan
                              Registered User
                              • Jul 2002
                              • 71579
                              #15
                              Re: Rookie quarterbacks

                              Originally posted by Kenny
                              JP had 30+ games to take all doubt away and he failed.[/COLOR]

                              TE would've failed miserably if he even lived to make it past those 30 games without getting injured.
                              sacrifice1
                              https://theinterviewwithgod.com/video/

                              Comment

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