Rookie quarterbacks

[Philagape]

I have researched the rookie stats for 41 QBs going back to the 80s. To qualify, they had to have at least 100 attempts and be true rookies (no USFL or CFL guys).
The average rookie season:
52 completion percentage
6.26 YPA
3.3 touchdown %
4.1 interception %
65.6 rating

Now that group included a lot of short-career busts, so I whittled it down to the following QBs: Aikman, Bledsoe, Kerry Collins, Cutler, Elway, Esiason, Everett, Jeff George, Kosar, Leftwich, Lomax, Majkowski, both Mannings, Marino, Jim McMahon, McNabb, Peete, Plummer, Roethlisberger, Testaverde.
Their average rookie season:
53.1 completion percentage
6.6 YPA
3.9 touchdown %
4.0 interception %
70.4 rating

So when we measure up Edwards’ numbers:
56.1 completion percentage
6.1 YPA
2.6 touchdown %
3.0 interception %
70.4 rating
He did better than the overall rookie average and had the same rating as the whittled-down group. Against both groups he had better completion percentage and lower interception rate, with a lower YPA and lower touchdown rate. The production numbers (yards per attempt and touchdown rate) are the two stats that depend more on other factors in the offense, while the efficiency numbers (completions and interceptions) depend more on the QB himself.

Now I’ve said before that stats tell only part of the story, so this is for all you stat freaks who need hard numbers to go by.

Source: pro-football-reference.com.

[The King]

The one thing that stands fresh in my mind still is how Trent handled himself on that opening drive against NE. He did something no one had done since Drew torched them 31-0. Sure the Pats adjusted but it was remarkable to see a rookie come in and play NE with that kind of confidence.

[Mr. Miyagi]

Just for ****s and giggles, what do John Beck's numbers look like?

[The King]

Just for ****s and giggles, what do John Beck's numbers look like?

:poop:

[Jan Reimers]

It's interesting - but basically irrelevant at this point - to look at comparable numbers for JP. If you assume 2005 to be his "rookie year" (he was hurt and played very little in 2004), you find:

Completion Percentage: 49.6%
YPA: 5.9
TD %: 3.5
INT % 3.5
Rating: 64.9

So with the exception of TD%, TE grades out better.

[Kenny]

It's interesting - but basically irrelevant at this point - to look at comparable numbers for JP. If you assume 2005 to be his "rookie year" (he was hurt and played very little in 2004), you find:

Completion Percentage: 49.6%
YPA: 5.9
TD %: 3.5
INT % 3.5
Rating: 64.9

So with the exception of TD%, TE grades out better.

yeah... I mean who cares about scoring right? :dance:

But agreed, these stats mean absolutely nothing (to me at least)... And I still dont get what you guys saw in Edwards last season. Not saying he sucked, but he certainly wasnt very good.

Our offense was dead last (or very near it), and you can blame JP all you want, -but at the end of the day Edwards didnt make it any better (in terms of scoring points to win games).
Sure Edwards is a rookie, -but he also looked like one to me. Until he shows me more than that one throw (last throw against Washington, in Washington), Im still going to question him and his ability.

And yes, I know I sound like a pessimist, -but with our QB problem stemming soooooo long, can you really blame me?

[The King]

Our offense was dead last (or very near it), and you can blame JP all you want, -but at the end of the day Edwards didnt make it any better (in terms of scoring points to win games).


Look at Miami game 1 and Miami game 2.

[hydro]

yeah... I mean who cares about scoring right? :dance:

But agreed, these stats mean absolutely nothing (to me at least)... And I still dont get what you guys saw in Edwards last season. Not saying he sucked, but he certainly wasnt very good. Most people saw a QB that made better decisions and had better pocket presence. JP had 30+ games to take all doubt away and he failed.

Our offense was dead last (or very near it), and you can blame JP all you want, -but at the end of the day Edwards didnt make it any better (in terms of scoring points to win games). No, but he was just as good as a 30+ game starter who showed attributes that JP never has.
Sure Edwards is a rookie, -but he also looked like one to me. Until he shows me more than that one throw (last throw against Washington, in Washington), Im still going to question him and his ability. You are only helping the Edwards backers by stating that he played like a rookie. Because guess what, he was a ROOKIE!

And yes, I know I sound like a pessimist, -but with our QB problem stemming soooooo long, can you really blame me?

[Kenny]

Most people saw a QB that made better decisions and had better pocket presence. JP had 30+ games to take all doubt away and he failed.

Im not comparing TE to JP... Im well into agreement that JP is a failure in Buffalo. But just because he's a failure, doesnt mean we have to hold TE to those standards.

No, but he was just as good as a 30+ game starter who showed attributes that JP never has.

(see my comment above)

You are only helping the Edwards backers by stating that he played like a rookie. Because guess what, he was a ROOKIE!

Exactly... he looked like a rookie. Dont know why people can say he's going to be this 'great' QB yet. He may very well be, -but I dont see it yet.

[justasportsfan]

Look at Miami game 1 and Miami game 2.
different players. Miami wasn't the same team we played in the first game. If you want to make a more accurate comaprrison, check out the the jets game. 3 pts. ( a little less than 3 periods) vs. 10 (a little over 1 period)

[ddaryl]

never mind Jay hit JP's numbers....

Edwards does show promise... but he needs to up that production this year.. no regressing, I'm tired of regression, it leads to aggression

[justasportsfan]

never mind Jay hit JP's numbers....

Edwards does show promise... but he needs to up that production this year.. no regressing, I'm tired of regression, it leads to aggression
TE had a better Ol than JP's rookie year.

[hydro]

Most people saw a QB that made better decisions and had better pocket presence. JP had 30+ games to take all doubt away and he failed.

Im not comparing TE to JP... Im well into agreement that JP is a failure in Buffalo. But just because he's a failure, doesnt mean we have to hold TE to those standards.

No, but he was just as good as a 30+ game starter who showed attributes that JP never has.

(see my comment above)

You are only helping the Edwards backers by stating that he played like a rookie. Because guess what, he was a ROOKIE!

Exactly... he looked like a rookie. Dont know why people can say he's going to be this 'great' QB yet. He may very well be, -but I dont see it yet.

I have stated this before. Most TE backers aren't bowing in his presence. Only the HHuricane's and Pat Moran's of the board are touting him as our next Jim Kelly. I am past JP and see things in Edwards that I think can't be built upon, but I certainly don't think he is a sure shot franchise QB.

[ddaryl]

TE had a better Ol than JP's rookie year.

I wasn't going to open that can of worms here... figured I just stay on the positive choo choo.

[justasportsfan]

JP had 30+ games to take all doubt away and he failed.[/COLOR]




TE would've failed miserably if he even lived to make it past those 30 games without getting injured.

[justasportsfan]

see things in Edwards that I think can't be built upon, but I certainly don't think he is a sure shot franchise QB.You mean CAN be built upon?

I feel the same same way with JP as well if he had decent coaching.

[colin]

he's got a lot of growing to do, but i for one think he will be a good solid nfl qb for us.

give him some weapons and we'll continue to improve on O.

[raphael120]

Unfortunately the only way we'll find out who is right in the JP vs. Edwards debate is if JP goes somewhere else and starts. And I really hope he does because I want to put the debate to bed.

[hydro]

You mean CAN be built upon?

I feel the same same way with JP as well if he had decent coaching.
Yes that was a typo :shy: