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View Full Version : A needs assessment for our No1 draft pick after the Combine



kernowboy
02-28-2008, 07:15 AM
With everyone having their favourite pick at No11, I thought it might be important to look at all the positions on the team and prioritize them in terms of team needs when determining my selection. I've divided this into urgent needs and nice but not as urgent.

Needs
DT: Our inability to stop the run makes this a crucial need. There is not a lot in Free Agency, though some players are on the trading block. The fact that so little is being asked for the likes of Rogers and Williams (apparently) does raise a flag for me, as to whether it could be a boom or bust deal. Trading does not always bring success.

Of the draft options, Dorsey seems to have a huge injury flag and will be compelled to play through pain for the rest of his career which maybe 2 or 8 years. Ellis did himself no favours at the combine with his speed , but remains the healthiest option though unlikely to fall so far.

of Balmer, Sims, Bryant, Moore and Laws, none advanced their cause so far, though I would be disappointed that if Sims, Moore and Laws are available at No41, we do not immediately grab them. No DT at 11

WR: Our biggest need on offence but none of the WR stepped up. There must be questions as to how quick Kelly is, Sweed did better than expect though has an injury flag, Hardy has a character flag, and Thomas has only produced in one year. What is remarkable about this draft is the depth at this position means we could select a WR deep into Day 2 - Rounds 4 or 5 - and still end up with Marques Colston Lite. No-one has stepped up to justify such a high selection. No WR at 11

DE: We've a lot of money tied up here but little production from the left. An improved interior may assist this, but also Denney may not full return to the average play he has provided so far. Considering the DEs available, Merling looks a player as does Harvey and Groves but No11 is too early for any of them. A DT is more important. No DE at 11

CB: A tandem of Greer & McGee with fingers crossed about Youboty. Mmmmm. Cornerback was a position that did step up. McKelvin was quick as was Jenkins and Cason, Talib, and Reggie Smith all now have a R1 grade. But Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie peformed like his cousin, Antonio, and a 6ft1, 184lbs corner who runs 4.28 in the 40 may be a selection to good to miss even if a lockdown corner isn't 100% necessary in the Cover2 defence. Worth considering at 11

TE: There are several guys who would be an asset to the Bills, maybe straight into the line up on Day1, but considering the two best at the combine, Davis and Keller are undersized, we shouldn't look at this until Day2. None have a Round1 grade and at No11 would be an insane selection. No TE at 11

Nice but not neccessary
QB: Brohm still available would be pause for thought especially as next years QB class looks light. We might be able to leverage a team's desire for Brohm to trade down, but ultimately I see Edwards being given a full starting season, and the Bills having their fingers crossed that a QB steps up in the 2009 draft if Trent doesn't hack it. No to a QB at 11

RB: Rashard Meadenhall and Jonathan Stewart stepped up at the Combine and Meadenhall has the look of a Franchise back. With Lynch with us, this would be a seriously unlikely selection, unless we have fallen in love with Meadenhall, and can trade Lynch for a high No1 next year. We'd still get production on the ground, but would not have improved the team. Are Meadenhall or Stewart better long term options in a cold climate? Whilst we all love what Marshawn did teams should always look to get better at all positions. No to a RB at 11

OL: No G or C, but at T there are two players maybe worthy of No11 in Clady and Chris Williams. With Peters and Walker, a very unlikely selection, but Walker has always been up and down, and a stellar bookend might be worth thinking about. An unlikely selection, but considering the big picture, I could see the reasoning behind it. No to a OL at 11

S: This is accepted to be a bad class. Only Kenny Phillips carries a Round 1 grade but No11 is too high for him and we have solid players here in Simpson and Whitner. Picking Phillips would not improve the team. No to a S at 11

LB: Whilst it seems to be topical to slag off Ellison lets consider his play. Drafted in R6, he was a very nice surprise in 2006, playing alongside Fletcher and Spikes/Crowell finishing impressively. He regressed in 2007, but was often alongside DiGiorgio, Stammer and Haggan. Due to his own injury he's yet to play with Poz. Is Ellison a guy who plays up or down to those beside him. Alongside Poz and Angelo, I could see him returning to his 2006 form. We cannot have 11 Pro-Bowlers on defence. Being the senior LB for periods last year might have been just too much and that was contributory to his struggles.

In the draft we see only Rivers and Connor with a R1 tag. But I don't believe it is a necessary position because.

Free agency is deeper at this position and we can grab a player here.
Rivers is a big fish in a poor draft. Would he be ahead of the LBs of 2009?
Rivers-Poz-Crowell is a very inexperienced corps
Surround Ellison with talented players, and he seems to play to their level
Unless we fix the DL, it doesn't matter who we have hereWhilst I can understand the clamour for Rivers, I think it would as unnecessary as drafting Brohm, Meadenhall or Clady. We have other needs, and if Ellison does not rebound all the way, we can still be a playoff team and find ourselves drafting a LB like Fauriniatis, Maualaga or Lee, who would easily be a top15 selection this year. 2009 seems to be a much better class for LBs and therefore we SHOULD NOT REACH in this one. No to a LB at 11


After consideration I feel we have two options at No11. If Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is available, I would select him as I think it provides us with size, speed and playmaking ability at a position of weakness (Greer is not a starter). If not then trading down is the next best option. All other considerations do not make sense.

X-Era
02-28-2008, 07:34 AM
Thats your opnion, your entitled to it, but IMO trading down is the WORST move we could make.

1) If Dorsey has health concerns and our docs can assure us he can come back all the way, I would draft him at 11 even if he plays at only 80% next year. Yes, hes that good, just watch the tape and you will see.

2) Keith Rivers could be there at 11 and is absolutely worth the pick. Not only that he instantly upgrades our LB corp which IMO is a big deal to imporving our defense quickly.

3) Malcolm Kelly didnt run but really doesnt need to prove he can run either. Hes not a 4.4 guy, hes a big WR that has unbelievable hands and gets open, thats what we need. Hes a playmaker who is worth the 11 pick

4) DRC's stock is sky-rocketing but Im not convinced hes worth the 11 pick yet. Hes a great prospect and Id love to have him, but I dont even think hes the best CB available. Flowers had a poor showing in the combine, but if he can do what he should have done in private workouts, I think he can regain his status as one of the top 3 CB's. Talib is a player, has proven it, and has done so against top notch opponents, Unless a team can really convince themselves that a more porven CB in Talib isnt worth what a workout stud in DRC is, then Talib may be the 1st CB taken.

Anyways, we have lost of players that are average. The farther you go down in the draft, the better your chance of getting just average players. We need upgrades, and really great players. Stay up at 11, and get a great player.

Don't Panic
02-28-2008, 07:36 AM
Great post... my feeling at this point (meaning pre-FA) is that we should only be looking at LB at #11. Otherwise, I think we have to trade down. CB at #11 does not make sense given the system we run (like it or not). I don't see anyone else worht the pick unless one of the big time DTs slide.

Don't Panic
02-28-2008, 07:40 AM
Thats your opnion, your entitled to it, but IMO trading down is the WORST move we could make.

1) If Dorsey has health concerns and our docs can assure us he can come back all the way, I would draft him at 11 even if he plays at only 80% next year. Yes, hes that good, just watch the tape and you will see.

2) Keith Rivers could be there at 11 and is absolutely worth the pick. Not only that he instantly upgrades our LB corp which IMO is a big deal to imporving our defense quickly.

3) Malcolm Kelly didnt run but really doesnt need to prove he can run either. Hes not a 4.4 guy, hes a big WR that has unbelievable hands and gets open, thats what we need. Hes a playmaker who is worth the 11 pick

4) DRC's stock is sky-rocketing but Im not convinced hes worth the 11 pick yet. Hes a great prospect and Id love to have him, but I dont even think hes the best CB available. Flowers had a poor showing in the combine, but if he can do what he should have done in private workouts, I think he can regain his status as one of the top 3 CB's. Talib is a player, has proven it, and has done so against top notch opponents, Unless a team can really convince themselves that a more porven CB in Talib isnt worth what a workout stud in DRC is, then Talib may be the 1st CB taken.

Anyways, we have lost of players that are average. The farther you go down in the draft, the better your chance of getting just average players. We need upgrades, and really great players. Stay up at 11, and get a great player.

At this point, Kelly is the only non-DT or LB argument you could make, and Is till need a lot of convincing to take him at #11. If Dorsey, Ellis and Rivers are all gone by #11, I think trading down is the wisest move. You can get a WR in the 20s that will be relatively close to what Kelly brings, and you get another day one pick (minimum). We have too many needs not to trade down.

kernowboy
02-28-2008, 07:52 AM
For me Rivers is wildly overrated and is only regarded as highly because it is an awful Linebacker class. His stats are no better than Adibi and no-one is suggesting he's a R1 pick. If Lee, Cushing, Fauriniatis and Maualaga had come out, I doubt Rivers would even be a R1 selection. Rivers looked good in a very good linebacking corps. Playing Ellison alongside quality like Poz and Angelo has proven to help him raise his own game, and there is more quality to chose from next year if he doesn't. Plus free agency is deeper at LB than any other position. Someone like Victor Hobson could bring everything that Rivers does PLUS experience - a unit of Crowell, Pos and Rivers is horribly inexperienced.

Such are Dorsey's knee problems even he says he plays in constant pain. Can we really expect them to hold up? Will he be another Andre Wadsworth?

As for Kelly, he's a very good player but he doesn't stand out from the likes of Speed. Looking at his college record its not really superior to Adarius Bowman who may now go in the fourth. In a weak WR class, Kelly at 11 would make sense ... in one of incredible depth, it doesn't.

For me DRC, is a diamond in need of polishing but what he has over the other CBs is size. Flowers was painfully slow, whilst Talib looked awkward in several drills. DRC still has upside, whilst others may have reached their full ability, and thats why I have suggested him.

patmoran2006
02-28-2008, 07:54 AM
Not bad opinions at all.

I just think you're spending entirely too much time right now talking about the draft and analyzing what we will do. I understand in the sense that its the offseason and its something to do.

But I would focus on FA for now rather than the draft.. at the end of your post you concluded we should draft a CB. Well, conceivably in 24 hours that could be null and void if we were to go out and sign a CB (a meaningful one)

Not implying you didn't make any sense, because you did. But I would wait until after we take our hits at FA. Then the draft will start to come more into focus.

kernowboy
02-28-2008, 08:01 AM
The only thing I would say is I think that as the cap expands so quickly the free agent classes with continue to be poor, and more emphasis will go back to the draft

Jan Reimers
02-28-2008, 08:07 AM
If we cover a few needs in FA, it may very well be BPA at 11.

Kenny
02-28-2008, 08:36 AM
Just a thought about Ellis I recently had... but did his combine/workout raise any flags about his NFL potential?

I mean he played at USC at around 280-285lbs. He fattened up for the combine up to the 310lbs range and didnt really look great.
IMO, he was a great pass rusher in college because of his speed, -but at 285lbs, -it's just not going to cut in the NFL.
Now what happens if he loses his pass rush ability at 300+lbs?

DraftBoy
02-28-2008, 09:07 AM
Just a thought about Ellis I recently had... but did his combine/workout raise any flags about his NFL potential?

I mean he played at USC at around 280-285lbs. He fattened up for the combine up to the 310lbs range and didnt really look great.
IMO, he was a great pass rusher in college because of his speed, -but at 285lbs, -it's just not going to cut in the NFL.
Now what happens if he loses his pass rush ability at 300+lbs?

He did great in the DT drills, just a poor 40 time. He didnt really lower his stock much, just really cemented the fact that he is the #2 DT

X-Era
02-28-2008, 01:12 PM
For me Rivers is wildly overrated and is only regarded as highly because it is an awful Linebacker class. His stats are no better than Adibi and no-one is suggesting he's a R1 pick. If Lee, Cushing, Fauriniatis and Maualaga had come out, I doubt Rivers would even be a R1 selection. Rivers looked good in a very good linebacking corps. Playing Ellison alongside quality like Poz and Angelo has proven to help him raise his own game, and there is more quality to chose from next year if he doesn't. Plus free agency is deeper at LB than any other position. Someone like Victor Hobson could bring everything that Rivers does PLUS experience - a unit of Crowell, Pos and Rivers is horribly inexperienced.

Such are Dorsey's knee problems even he says he plays in constant pain. Can we really expect them to hold up? Will he be another Andre Wadsworth?

As for Kelly, he's a very good player but he doesn't stand out from the likes of Speed. Looking at his college record its not really superior to Adarius Bowman who may now go in the fourth. In a weak WR class, Kelly at 11 would make sense ... in one of incredible depth, it doesn't.

For me DRC, is a diamond in need of polishing but what he has over the other CBs is size. Flowers was painfully slow, whilst Talib looked awkward in several drills. DRC still has upside, whilst others may have reached their full ability, and thats why I have suggested him. No one is suggesting Rivers is a RD1 pick? What site have you gone to that doesnt think hes a RD1 pick?
Thats nuts.
I just dont agree on your takes on Talib or Flowers. I would feel a ton better about Rivers or Kelly in the 1st and then Flowers in the 2nd than DRC in the 1st and I dont know Adibi in the 2nd. Sweed will be gone and 11 in the 2nd is too early for Hardy at this point (that could change). But Flowers was the best CB at VT, and was the best CB I saw all year IMO. He hits like a mack truck, has great instinct that allow him to break up passes, and ON THE FIELD had no trouble staying with anyone. Hes a HUGE run assett and a great prospect. Hes a steal in the 2nd IMO.

jamze132
02-28-2008, 02:43 PM
If Dorsey is there at 11, you don't think twice about drafting him. :honda:

kernowboy
02-28-2008, 03:49 PM
If Dorsey is there at 11, you don't think twice about drafting him. :honda:

you do if his knees won't last more than 2 seasons

colin
02-28-2008, 04:24 PM
rivers or the best wr at 11 will be fine if there is no trade down.

the de from floriday might be a player there too.

even if we get get a DT and LB before our 11th pick, unless we get NO wr, we could take a solid DE.

if we get a wr in fa then corner looks to be the best pick (barring trade down).

drc is sick and i'll take him, but to me we need to get

1A dt
1B wr
2 lb
3 te
4 cb
5 de

but a true star at DE or CB is better than any te in the draft at 11 or a lower ranked DT or LB.

the only thing i don't see happening is if we take a wr in fa for solid money and then pick a wr with our first without addressing dt or cb.

a trade down might be good -- if for some reason mcfadden falls dallas will give up 2 1sts for him. that will get us a top 3 lb/de/dt/cb and a top 3 wr,

gr8slayer
02-28-2008, 04:27 PM
you do if his knees won't last more than 2 seasons
He'll be fine.

jamze132
02-28-2008, 05:13 PM
you do if his knees won't last more than 2 seasons
I bet they do.

Oaf
02-28-2008, 05:46 PM
:lolpoint:
favourite

Mitchell55
02-28-2008, 05:53 PM
Why cant we be like the Carolina panthers from there super bowl years? You couldnt run into them because of Jenkins, around them because of Peppers and Morgan, or get far after the 2nd level because of there run stopping S and CBs.