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Many of us seem to think that the Bills already have the #2 spot in the AFCE locked up but I really doubt thats the case. In fact I see the AFCE as being a very competitive division this year at least within itself. Here is why.....
Lets start with the Pats, they lost some serious talent. Sure they lost talent every year and still bounce back strong, however I highly doubt they return to the rampage they had going last year. Losing Stallworth IMO is big, he made teams respect the other side of the field and was a deep threat. That should allow teams to clamp down on Welker more as well as the run game. Losing Rosevelt Colvin is also huge. Unless they replace him with another stud rusher then the teeth of their pass rush is gone. Seau is coming off surgery and Bruschi is another year older. Their safety situation is not great but still ok. James Sanders seemed to be favored over Wilson and played well as the starter and Harrisson is Harrisson. CB is the big question mark. They brought in some decent vets but none that will be Asante Samuel. Overall I think the Pats have downgraded enough to make most games against division opponents a battle.
On to the Jets. The Jets went nuts in the offseason obviously but money doesnt usually buy contenders. However, although they spend way too much on the FAs they brought in, they got some very good quality starters. Pace will give the Jets a good but not great pass rush from the outside and should team up nicely with David Harris, Eric Barton, and Bryan Thomas. Their interior DL impoved big-time with the acquisition of Jenkins who should do well next to Shaun Ellis and Kenyon Coleman. The Jets weakness is their secondary. Revis is talented yes, but still not a shut down guy by any means, they have no one notable at the other CB position. Safety is not bad though with Kerry Rhodes who is a real good playmaker. Their other safety is an unknown named Abram Elam. Overall the Jets are going to be tough to run against and that's after it was already tough for Buffalo to run the ball on them last year. They should also be a very tough, smash mouth rushing team after the acquisitions they made on the OL. It will all depend on Ferguson and Mangold though. I know everyone loves Mangold but IMO he may not be the toughest run blocker and the same goes for Ferguson. Faneca is obviously a beast but he played with other OL in Pitts that were also road-graters so its not a given that he will revamp the Jets run game unless the 2 next to him can do the same. Still even if they remain as they were last year Faneca and Woody instantly upgrade their ability to pound the ball. There it is for the Jets and thats what will make them a tough team to beat, run and stop the run. A last comment on the Jets is that they currently have the second best WR corps in the AFCE so if Clemens can get his act together, that combined with a solid run game wont be easy to defend.
Miami Dolphins. Bill Parcells. That name instantly upgrades this team. He will give them an identity on defense that the team will rally around from day one. He has already brought in some players that fly under the radar but in the right system can flourish. Reggie Torbor and Charlie Anderson are great fits for 3-4 defenses. They are both very big LBs that can run. Torbor will probably start right away and should be a great addition. I think Torbor will start on the inside with Crowder with Porter and Taylor as the OLBs, thats not a bad LB crew at all actually. The DL is not spectacular but not horrible either. Starks is a decent player, Holliday is a good vet and Roth is just solid. Now speaking of horrible, thats what their CBs are. They need some serious help at CB and fast. Safety is ok with Yeremiah Bell and Jasen Allen. If they can improve their pass rush those 2 should actually make a lot of plays next year. Parcells is a smart dude so im pretty sure he will use the #1 pick to address his front 7. Smarter if he can trade down to #5, get extra picks and take Glenn Dorsey. Taking Chris Long IMO is a big mistake for both parties. The O is a huge question mark. I like the signing of Justin Smiley but I dont understand letting go of Rex Hadnot, he was a very solid player and still young. Pretty much evens out the Smiley signing and leaves them with holes on the OL. Vernon Carey is not a LT, he should be playing LG IMO. If they can land an OT in the second round that can start day 1 they can have a decent but not great OL. Running behind that OL is what can make or break the Dols offense next season. A motivated Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown who will want to pick up where he left off can give defenses a load to handle. We will have to see if either are possible with Ricky being Ricky and Brown coming of serious knee surgery. Now the WRs I think can be very tough to handle. Ginn hasn't really had a fair shot as of yet to prove his draft selection as worthy. This year he will have Ernest Wilford and Tab Perry playing with him, both of which are big physical receivers. If Beck can actually improve over last year he will still be below average. Josh McCown however can bring respectability to the QB position in Miami and given a running game and some time to throw, I think the Dolphins offense can actually put up some points. The dark horse for this offense will be Tab Perry IMO. If he can be a solid receiver in 3 WR sets then this offense can actually be tough to play against. It will come down to OL and DL for the Phins, if they can get it together they will be tough to play.
Our Bills. I think this has been one of the most satisfying offseason's ever. The combination of moves they made and moves they didnt make were great. Getting Kawika Mitchell early was perfect and then following it up with the trade for Stroud was brilliant. Stroud gives us Pat Williams and Tommie Harris rolled into 1. Im not saying he is as good at run stuffing as Pat or as good at pass rushing as Tommie but he can do both very very well which is exactly what our DL needed. Not getting Bryant Johnson for a huge contract was equally brilliant. Although I wanted him at first for a modest price I would not have been happy to pay him a big contract. Johnson is unproven as a starter and he's actually not as physical as his size might suggest. Anyways, we definitely got better in the run stopping department and thats before discussing the return of PoZ. Although I dont know how he will fare as a MLB in general I do know that he is very good as a run stuffer. What will make our defense great is how well Poz can play the pass. If he can do the things that Brackett and Urlacher do for their defenses then our D can be top 10 easily. Of course Im assuming that the trust the FO has in Schobel and Kelsay is warranted and they can get to the QB early and often. I have been down on our DEs but if Stroud and our best DT from last year McCargo can push the pocket inside it should make things easier for our DEs and maybe they will produce at the level we all expect. The other key to our success will be our run blocking. Our OL proved that they can pass block extremely well but have shown a weakness when it comes to pounding opponents off the LOS in the run game. If Lynch can get up to 4.5 ypc like the other elite backs in the league our offense, assuming we have a genuine #2 WR and TE can really take off. Overall the Bills have most teams a tough time last year and with the additions in FA, trade and the draft it should be even tougher.
With all that said here is my prediciton for the AFCE:
Pats: 12-4
Bills: 10-6
Jets: 9-7
Dolphins: 6-10
Comments/Predictions welcome!
Lets start with the Pats, they lost some serious talent. Sure they lost talent every year and still bounce back strong, however I highly doubt they return to the rampage they had going last year. Losing Stallworth IMO is big, he made teams respect the other side of the field and was a deep threat. That should allow teams to clamp down on Welker more as well as the run game. Losing Rosevelt Colvin is also huge. Unless they replace him with another stud rusher then the teeth of their pass rush is gone. Seau is coming off surgery and Bruschi is another year older. Their safety situation is not great but still ok. James Sanders seemed to be favored over Wilson and played well as the starter and Harrisson is Harrisson. CB is the big question mark. They brought in some decent vets but none that will be Asante Samuel. Overall I think the Pats have downgraded enough to make most games against division opponents a battle.
On to the Jets. The Jets went nuts in the offseason obviously but money doesnt usually buy contenders. However, although they spend way too much on the FAs they brought in, they got some very good quality starters. Pace will give the Jets a good but not great pass rush from the outside and should team up nicely with David Harris, Eric Barton, and Bryan Thomas. Their interior DL impoved big-time with the acquisition of Jenkins who should do well next to Shaun Ellis and Kenyon Coleman. The Jets weakness is their secondary. Revis is talented yes, but still not a shut down guy by any means, they have no one notable at the other CB position. Safety is not bad though with Kerry Rhodes who is a real good playmaker. Their other safety is an unknown named Abram Elam. Overall the Jets are going to be tough to run against and that's after it was already tough for Buffalo to run the ball on them last year. They should also be a very tough, smash mouth rushing team after the acquisitions they made on the OL. It will all depend on Ferguson and Mangold though. I know everyone loves Mangold but IMO he may not be the toughest run blocker and the same goes for Ferguson. Faneca is obviously a beast but he played with other OL in Pitts that were also road-graters so its not a given that he will revamp the Jets run game unless the 2 next to him can do the same. Still even if they remain as they were last year Faneca and Woody instantly upgrade their ability to pound the ball. There it is for the Jets and thats what will make them a tough team to beat, run and stop the run. A last comment on the Jets is that they currently have the second best WR corps in the AFCE so if Clemens can get his act together, that combined with a solid run game wont be easy to defend.
Miami Dolphins. Bill Parcells. That name instantly upgrades this team. He will give them an identity on defense that the team will rally around from day one. He has already brought in some players that fly under the radar but in the right system can flourish. Reggie Torbor and Charlie Anderson are great fits for 3-4 defenses. They are both very big LBs that can run. Torbor will probably start right away and should be a great addition. I think Torbor will start on the inside with Crowder with Porter and Taylor as the OLBs, thats not a bad LB crew at all actually. The DL is not spectacular but not horrible either. Starks is a decent player, Holliday is a good vet and Roth is just solid. Now speaking of horrible, thats what their CBs are. They need some serious help at CB and fast. Safety is ok with Yeremiah Bell and Jasen Allen. If they can improve their pass rush those 2 should actually make a lot of plays next year. Parcells is a smart dude so im pretty sure he will use the #1 pick to address his front 7. Smarter if he can trade down to #5, get extra picks and take Glenn Dorsey. Taking Chris Long IMO is a big mistake for both parties. The O is a huge question mark. I like the signing of Justin Smiley but I dont understand letting go of Rex Hadnot, he was a very solid player and still young. Pretty much evens out the Smiley signing and leaves them with holes on the OL. Vernon Carey is not a LT, he should be playing LG IMO. If they can land an OT in the second round that can start day 1 they can have a decent but not great OL. Running behind that OL is what can make or break the Dols offense next season. A motivated Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown who will want to pick up where he left off can give defenses a load to handle. We will have to see if either are possible with Ricky being Ricky and Brown coming of serious knee surgery. Now the WRs I think can be very tough to handle. Ginn hasn't really had a fair shot as of yet to prove his draft selection as worthy. This year he will have Ernest Wilford and Tab Perry playing with him, both of which are big physical receivers. If Beck can actually improve over last year he will still be below average. Josh McCown however can bring respectability to the QB position in Miami and given a running game and some time to throw, I think the Dolphins offense can actually put up some points. The dark horse for this offense will be Tab Perry IMO. If he can be a solid receiver in 3 WR sets then this offense can actually be tough to play against. It will come down to OL and DL for the Phins, if they can get it together they will be tough to play.
Our Bills. I think this has been one of the most satisfying offseason's ever. The combination of moves they made and moves they didnt make were great. Getting Kawika Mitchell early was perfect and then following it up with the trade for Stroud was brilliant. Stroud gives us Pat Williams and Tommie Harris rolled into 1. Im not saying he is as good at run stuffing as Pat or as good at pass rushing as Tommie but he can do both very very well which is exactly what our DL needed. Not getting Bryant Johnson for a huge contract was equally brilliant. Although I wanted him at first for a modest price I would not have been happy to pay him a big contract. Johnson is unproven as a starter and he's actually not as physical as his size might suggest. Anyways, we definitely got better in the run stopping department and thats before discussing the return of PoZ. Although I dont know how he will fare as a MLB in general I do know that he is very good as a run stuffer. What will make our defense great is how well Poz can play the pass. If he can do the things that Brackett and Urlacher do for their defenses then our D can be top 10 easily. Of course Im assuming that the trust the FO has in Schobel and Kelsay is warranted and they can get to the QB early and often. I have been down on our DEs but if Stroud and our best DT from last year McCargo can push the pocket inside it should make things easier for our DEs and maybe they will produce at the level we all expect. The other key to our success will be our run blocking. Our OL proved that they can pass block extremely well but have shown a weakness when it comes to pounding opponents off the LOS in the run game. If Lynch can get up to 4.5 ypc like the other elite backs in the league our offense, assuming we have a genuine #2 WR and TE can really take off. Overall the Bills have most teams a tough time last year and with the additions in FA, trade and the draft it should be even tougher.
With all that said here is my prediciton for the AFCE:
Pats: 12-4
Bills: 10-6
Jets: 9-7
Dolphins: 6-10
Comments/Predictions welcome!
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