position with biggest failure rate from the 1st round

[trapezeus]

Just read in the article below that WR is the position that has the biggest failure rate. Does that concern anyone, or are we trusting what our front office guys can get done? I figure that figure is slightly inflated since the lions have taken so many useless WR over the years, but still.

I'm ambivalent. i just found it interesting. Especially considering that Kelly has a lot of potential "bust" issues surrounding him. and thomas has "reach" labels put on him at this time. i hope we don't become a stat

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080408/ap_on_sp_fo_ne/fbn_mock_draft10;_ylt=Arqkd5AZbvuML28XAgXqOl0LMxIF

[Jaybird]

i stated this early last week

[Mr. Pink]

QB isn't higher? I'm shocked.

[hydro]

i stated this early last week
Great :bf1:

Would you like a cookie?
http://www.cookiemadness.net/oreo%20chunk%20cookie%20for%20blog.jpg

[bigbub2352]

Any position has bust facter written all over it, i cant believe QB, OT, DT, LBer are not just as high, CB there have been alot of guyz taken that were sure fire "Franchise Players" and ended up in the XFL or Arena League or playing with me in flag football LOL

[Jan Reimers]

I don't think you pick players at any position based on failure rate statistics.

[Jaybird]

All i won't if for my football knowledge to be recognized

[hydro]

I don't think you pick players at any position based on failure rate statistics.
In the end it all depends on the scouting. The front office has control over which part of that statistic they become.

[hydro]

All i won't if for my football knowledge to be recognized

Link?

[Johnny Bugmenot]

On the other hand, how many great late-round or undrafted talents do you ever find at the WR position? Very few.

Rod Smith and Wayne Chrebet were undrafted, but beyond that, how many WRs have ever made it from after Round 2, maybe Round 3?

[Ebenezer]

I would think QB would be #1.

[Night Train]

Lee Evans sure sucked.

Wait..

[trapezeus]

i don't think you let the stats influence you on your picks. you pick based on need, but the stats should make you dig deeper as to find out why the busts busted and the winners succeeded. is there soemthing in character that makes it obvious. are there guys who wow people at the combine but have average gameday footage? I don't know, but it does suggest that you really look at everything very carefully.

I thought QB would be busted out too. but the thing is that 1st round QB's get a couple chances because they were suppose to be good and even if they flame on their first team, someone thinks, "hey, he at least has gameday experience which is better than getting a rookie with no clue." WR who aren't good after 2 or 3 years, i think are given up on, because there are a lot more of them out there and a lot more coming in the draft.

[Mr. Miyagi]

Great :bf1:

Would you like a cookie?
http://www.cookiemadness.net/oreo%20chunk%20cookie%20for%20blog.jpg
Is that one big ass cookie or a tiny plate?

[trapezeus]

i stated this early last week

apologies for not seeing your thread earlier in the week. i will, however, still bow down to your football knowledge in future posts ;-)

[hydro]

Is that one big ass cookie or a tiny plate?

I like to think it's a really big cookie. :idunno:

[Kenny]

Does anyone have any stats regarding how well players who have only had 1 good year in college have performed in the pros?

[Mitchell55]

Well, it is also probably the most picked every year. Just about every year there are about 5-6 WRs taken in the 1st.

[X-Era]

QB isn't higher? I'm shocked.

OT's are up there, but it happens to be a tougher spot to prove failure.

Couch, Leaf, Carr, Alex Smith (maybe), Harrington, Akili Smith... thats pretty bad.

[yordad]

Well, it is also probably the most picked every year. Just about every year there are about 5-6 WRs taken in the 1st. It is a %, the count doesn't matter. Not that I believe him. Sounds like he is speculating; he provided no data. And, he would have to give some second and third round success rates to get value from the data even if it was true.

I call :bs:

[X-Era]

Just read in the article below that WR is the position that has the biggest failure rate. Does that concern anyone, or are we trusting what our front office guys can get done? I figure that figure is slightly inflated since the lions have taken so many useless WR over the years, but still.

I'm ambivalent. i just found it interesting. Especially considering that Kelly has a lot of potential "bust" issues surrounding him. and thomas has "reach" labels put on him at this time. i hope we don't become a stat

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080408/ap_on_sp_fo_ne/fbn_mock_draft10;_ylt=Arqkd5AZbvuML28XAgXqOl0LMxIF\

I hope we dont become a stat too.

But, we could easily go WR in the 1st round. Theres a real chance of it.

[yordad]

I read this on buffalobills.com. Seems interesting.....

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</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- / user info --> </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="alt1" id="td_post_714304"> <!-- message, attachments, sig --> <!-- icon and title --> http://boards.buffalobills.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Why get a WR in the first round?
<hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --> <!-- message --> Here is an aggregate of the 1st and 2nd round WRs picked over the last five years:
http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/ful...&type=position (http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?position=Wide+Receivers&type=position)

2007 pick catches TDs name team
1 2 48 4 Calvin Johnson Detroit Lions
1 9 34 2 Ted Ginn Jr. Miami Dolphins
1 23 70 5 Dwayne Bowe Kansas City Chiefs
1 27 0 0 Robert Meachem New Orleans Saints
1 30 20 1 Craig Davis San Diego Chargers
1 32 37 3 Anthony Gonzalez Indianapolis Colts
2 44 31 4 Sidney Rice Minnesota Vikings
2 45 6 0 Dwayne Jarrett Carolina Panthers
2 51 8 0 Steve Smith New York Giants

2006
1 25 49 2 Santonio Holmes Pittsburgh Steelers
2 36 13 3 Chad Jackson New England Patriots
2 44 5 0 Sinorice Moss New York Giants
2 52 45 3 Greg Jennings Green Bay Packers

2005
1 3 32 3 Braylon Edwards Cleveland Browns
1 7 24 2 Troy Williamson Minnesota Vikings
1 10 29 1 Mike Williams Detroit Lions
1 21 36 5 Matt Jones Jacksonville Jaguars
1 22 44 2 Mark Clayton Baltimore Ravens
1 27 29 3 Roddy White Atlanta Falcons
2 35 43 4 Reggie Brown Philadelphia Eagles
2 39 18 0 Mark Bradley Chicago Bears
2 55 15 1 Roscoe Parrish Buffalo Bills
2 58 5 0 Terrence Murphy Green Bay Packers
2 61 3 0 Vincent Jackson San Diego Chargers

2004
1 3 58 8 Larry Fitzgerald Arizona Cardinals
1 7 54 8 Roy Williams Detroit Lions
1 9 27 1 Reggie Williams Jacksonville Jaguars
1 13 48 9 Lee Evans Buffalo Bills
1 15 80 7 Michael Clayton Tampa Bay Buccaneers
1 29 7 0 Michael Jenkins Atlanta Falcons
1 31 7 1 Rashaun Woods San Francisco 49ers
2 50 0 0 Devery Henderson New Orleans Saints
2 54 31 1 Darius Watts Denver Broncos
2 62 47 5 Keary Colbert Carolina Panthers

2003
1 2 22 3 Charles Rogers Detroit Lions
1 3 66 4 Andre Johnson Houston Texans
1 17 35 1 Bryant Johnson Arizona Cardinals
2 44 3 1 Taylor Jacobs Washington Redskins
2 45 16 2 Bethel Johnson New England Patriots
2 54 101 8 Anquan Boldin Arizona Cardinals
2 60 18 4 Tyrone Calico Tennessee Titans

In the first year,
1st round picks averaged 37 catches (37.2)
2nd round picks averaged 22 catches (22.7)

1st round picks averaged 3 TDs (3.3)
2nd round picks averaged 2 TDs (2.0)

If you take Anquan Boldin out (clearly an anomaly among 2nd round picks)
2nd round picks averaged 18 catches (18.1)
2nd round picks averaged 2 TDs (1.6)

Here's the list of 1st rounders
Calvin Johnson
Charles Rogers
Braylon Edwards
Larry Fitzgerald
Andre Johnson
Troy Williamson
Roy Williams
Ted Ginn Jr.
Reggie Williams
Mike Williams
Lee Evans
Michael Clayton
Bryant Johnson
Matt Jones
Mark Clayton
Dwayne Bowe
Santonio Holmes
Robert Meachem
Roddy White
Michael Jenkins
Craig Davis
Rashaun Woods
Anthony Gonzalez

and 2nd rounders
Reggie Brown
Chad Jackson
Mark Bradley
Sidney Rice
Sinorice Moss
Taylor Jacobs
Dwayne Jarrett
Bethel Johnson
Devery Henderson
Steve Smith
Greg Jennings
Darius Watts
Anquan Boldin
Roscoe Parrish
Terrence Murphy
Tyrone Calico
Vincent Jackson
Keary Colbert

The first round selections have not only a dramatic propensity to still be in the league, but dominate the 2nd round picks in quantity of pro bowl selections and starting positions.

With an open need at #2 receiver, it seems clear that a 2nd round pick is unlikely to get the job done in year 1 and beyond. We have two 2nd round receivers (Parrish, Reed) and both are clearly not #2 material.

We pick at #11, but recent history has shown that 1st year results do not show the first receiver taken as clearly the superior to the rest of the first round as practical thinking would infer.

If we pick a WR in round 2 instead of 1, be prepared for Josh Reed to get a lot of snaps at #2.
The best overall performance for a rookie receiver in the last 5 years has been an average of pick 17 (17.4)
http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/fea...aluechart.html (http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/features/valuechart.html)
The value of trading down from pick 11 to pick 17 is (1250-950) 300 points or the 60th pick (near bottom quarter of the 2nd round)

So, logically-speaking, it is in the best interest of the Bills to trade down, pick the best WR available and pick up the extra 2nd. (of course you need to find a trade partner)

The cost of trading our 2nd up to pick 17 would be (950-480) 470 points or roughly-speaking our 2nd this year and next.</td></tr></tbody></table>

[YardRat]

It's because coaching staffs and front offices have become too enamored over meaningless statistics like 40 times.

[Saratoga Slim]

It's because coaching staffs and front offices have become too enamored over meaningless statistics like 40 times.

Like them or not, our front office does look for football players, not athletes. I think in drafting perhaps our FO errs on the side of high-motor/high-football character/low risk of bust, as opposed to high-athleticism/high ceiling/high risk. I'm just guessing, but I don't think we put the premium on 40times etc. Thus we may miss out on a player or two that could blow the roof off, but my theory is that we're also less likely to pick a guy who ends up totally failing. I'm speaking about the current FO, not the Donahoe era.

Just a theory based on general impressions.

[ddaryl]

I read this on buffalobills.com. Seems interesting.....


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</TD> </TR> </TBODY></TABLE> <!-- / user info --> </TD></TR><TR> <TD class=alt1 id=td_post_714304> <!-- message, attachments, sig --> <!-- icon and title --> http://boards.buffalobills.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Why get a WR in the first round?
<HR style="COLOR: rgb(209,209,225)" SIZE=1> <!-- / icon and title --> <!-- message --> Here is an aggregate of the 1st and 2nd round WRs picked over the last five years:
http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/ful...&type=position (http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?position=Wide+Receivers&type=position)

2007 pick catches TDs name team
1 2 48 4 Calvin Johnson Detroit Lions
1 9 34 2 Ted Ginn Jr. Miami Dolphins
1 23 70 5 Dwayne Bowe Kansas City Chiefs
1 27 0 0 Robert Meachem New Orleans Saints
1 30 20 1 Craig Davis San Diego Chargers
1 32 37 3 Anthony Gonzalez Indianapolis Colts
2 44 31 4 Sidney Rice Minnesota Vikings
2 45 6 0 Dwayne Jarrett Carolina Panthers
2 51 8 0 Steve Smith New York Giants

2006
1 25 49 2 Santonio Holmes Pittsburgh Steelers
2 36 13 3 Chad Jackson New England Patriots
2 44 5 0 Sinorice Moss New York Giants
2 52 45 3 Greg Jennings Green Bay Packers

2005
1 3 32 3 Braylon Edwards Cleveland Browns
1 7 24 2 Troy Williamson Minnesota Vikings
1 10 29 1 Mike Williams Detroit Lions
1 21 36 5 Matt Jones Jacksonville Jaguars
1 22 44 2 Mark Clayton Baltimore Ravens
1 27 29 3 Roddy White Atlanta Falcons
2 35 43 4 Reggie Brown Philadelphia Eagles
2 39 18 0 Mark Bradley Chicago Bears
2 55 15 1 Roscoe Parrish Buffalo Bills
2 58 5 0 Terrence Murphy Green Bay Packers
2 61 3 0 Vincent Jackson San Diego Chargers

2004
1 3 58 8 Larry Fitzgerald Arizona Cardinals
1 7 54 8 Roy Williams Detroit Lions
1 9 27 1 Reggie Williams Jacksonville Jaguars
1 13 48 9 Lee Evans Buffalo Bills
1 15 80 7 Michael Clayton Tampa Bay Buccaneers
1 29 7 0 Michael Jenkins Atlanta Falcons
1 31 7 1 Rashaun Woods San Francisco 49ers
2 50 0 0 Devery Henderson New Orleans Saints
2 54 31 1 Darius Watts Denver Broncos
2 62 47 5 Keary Colbert Carolina Panthers

2003
1 2 22 3 Charles Rogers Detroit Lions
1 3 66 4 Andre Johnson Houston Texans
1 17 35 1 Bryant Johnson Arizona Cardinals
2 44 3 1 Taylor Jacobs Washington Redskins
2 45 16 2 Bethel Johnson New England Patriots
2 54 101 8 Anquan Boldin Arizona Cardinals
2 60 18 4 Tyrone Calico Tennessee Titans

In the first year,
1st round picks averaged 37 catches (37.2)
2nd round picks averaged 22 catches (22.7)

1st round picks averaged 3 TDs (3.3)
2nd round picks averaged 2 TDs (2.0)

If you take Anquan Boldin out (clearly an anomaly among 2nd round picks)
2nd round picks averaged 18 catches (18.1)
2nd round picks averaged 2 TDs (1.6)

Here's the list of 1st rounders
Calvin Johnson
Charles Rogers
Braylon Edwards
Larry Fitzgerald
Andre Johnson
Troy Williamson
Roy Williams
Ted Ginn Jr.
Reggie Williams
Mike Williams
Lee Evans
Michael Clayton
Bryant Johnson
Matt Jones
Mark Clayton
Dwayne Bowe
Santonio Holmes
Robert Meachem
Roddy White
Michael Jenkins
Craig Davis
Rashaun Woods
Anthony Gonzalez

and 2nd rounders
Reggie Brown
Chad Jackson
Mark Bradley
Sidney Rice
Sinorice Moss
Taylor Jacobs
Dwayne Jarrett
Bethel Johnson
Devery Henderson
Steve Smith
Greg Jennings
Darius Watts
Anquan Boldin
Roscoe Parrish
Terrence Murphy
Tyrone Calico
Vincent Jackson
Keary Colbert

The first round selections have not only a dramatic propensity to still be in the league, but dominate the 2nd round picks in quantity of pro bowl selections and starting positions.

With an open need at #2 receiver, it seems clear that a 2nd round pick is unlikely to get the job done in year 1 and beyond. We have two 2nd round receivers (Parrish, Reed) and both are clearly not #2 material.

We pick at #11, but recent history has shown that 1st year results do not show the first receiver taken as clearly the superior to the rest of the first round as practical thinking would infer.

If we pick a WR in round 2 instead of 1, be prepared for Josh Reed to get a lot of snaps at #2.
The best overall performance for a rookie receiver in the last 5 years has been an average of pick 17 (17.4)
http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/fea...aluechart.html (http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/features/valuechart.html)
The value of trading down from pick 11 to pick 17 is (1250-950) 300 points or the 60th pick (near bottom quarter of the 2nd round)

So, logically-speaking, it is in the best interest of the Bills to trade down, pick the best WR available and pick up the extra 2nd. (of course you need to find a trade partner)

The cost of trading our 2nd up to pick 17 would be (950-480) 470 points or roughly-speaking our 2nd this year and next.
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


pretty much the way I feel... and this post you borrowed is very informative and well writeen

kudos for bringing it here

[yordad]

pretty much the way I feel... and this post you borrowed is very informative and well writeen

kudos for bringing it hereThankyou. I read this thread, and I thought the writer of the orginal article was full of it, and provided no data. It made me think of a post I read a little while ago that took all the specualtion out. I would have liked to have taken credit for it because it is nice, but it wasn't mine, LOL. All the same, I thought some would find it informative. Well, at least the ones that took the time to read it.

[Buffatexas]

On the other hand, how many great late-round or undrafted talents do you ever find at the WR position? Very few.

Rod Smith and Wayne Chrebet were undrafted, but beyond that, how many WRs have ever made it from after Round 2, maybe Round 3?

Joe Horn - 5th
TJ Houshmandzadeh - 7th
Mike Furrey - Undrafted
Donald Driver - 7th

[trapezeus]

Joe Horn - 5th
TJ Houshmandzadeh - 7th
Mike Furrey - Undrafted
Donald Driver - 7th

Andre Reed was a 5th round pick from Kutztown State, no name school, right?