Mel Kiper's Mock

[BigGabes23]

Pertty sure this has not been posted.

For the third time in as many mock drafts, I'm projecting someone new to go No. 1 overall. My initial mock draft (http://insider.espn.go.com/ncf/insider/columns/story?columnist=kiper_jr_mel&id=3199691) had LSU DT Glenn Dorsey going first, and then I had Virginia DE Chris Long (http://insider.espn.go.com/ncf/insider/columns/story?columnist=kiper_jr_mel&id=3275203) going No. 1.
Now it's Michigan OT Jake Long (http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/player/profile?playerId=194278)'s turn to reside atop the draft board.
But whether it's Dorsey, Chris Long or Jake Long, one thing's for certain: Miami executive vice president of football operations Bill Parcells wants to take a lineman with the No. 1 overall pick. Also, the one word you can expect to hear a lot leading up to the draft is signability. All indications are that Parcells will draft the player he can sign and get into camp.
2008 NFL Draft Preview<o:p></o:p>

How does Mel Kiper Jr.'s latest mock draft compare with Todd McShay's first-round projections? To read McShay's latest mock draft, click here (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft08/insider/columns/story?columnist=mcshay_todd&page=mcshaymock0401).
Two other notable changes from my last mock draft deal with the emergence of Virginia offensive lineman Branden Albert and Boston College QB Matt Ryan (http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/player/profile?playerId=146254).
Albert was a guard at Virginia, but he did play two games at left tackle. His individual workouts have been phenomenal, and Albert has convinced teams he can play left tackle in the NFL. I have him going No. 5 to the Chiefs, and they aren't going to draft him that high to play guard.
As for Ryan, if Miami, Atlanta and Kansas City all pass on this year's No. 1 quarterback prospect, the Baltimore Ravens would love to see him on the board when it's their turn to pick. One thing to watch on draft day: I'm hearing that if the Falcons pass on Ryan, they might try to trade back into the first round (Atlanta owns two second-round picks) in an attempt to get Delaware QB Joe Flacco (http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/player/profile?playerId=146278).
The three new names appearing on my mock draft are: Purdue TE Dustin Keller (http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/player/profile?playerId=146191); USC DE Lawrence Jackson; and Arkansas State safety Tyrell Johnson. Oklahoma WR Malcolm Kelly (http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/player/profile?playerId=174567) and Miami's Calais Campbell and Kenny Phillips dropped out of the first round.
My final mock draft will appear on the eve of the NFL draft, April 25.
* denotes underclassman
<table class="MsoNormalTable" style="width: 100%;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="1" width="100%"> <tbody><tr style=""> <td colspan="4" style="padding: 2.25pt;"> Kiper's First-Round Projection<o:p></o:p>
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> No.<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Team<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Player<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> School<o:p></o:p>
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> 1<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Miami Dolphins<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Jake Long, OT<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Michigan<o:p></o:p>
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> 2<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> St. Louis Rams<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Chris Long, DE<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Virginia<o:p></o:p>
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> 3<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Atlanta Falcons<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Glenn Dorsey, DT<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> LSU<o:p></o:p>
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> 4<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Oakland Raiders<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> *Darren McFadden (http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/player/profile?playerId=170928), RB<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Arkansas<o:p></o:p>
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> 5<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Kansas City Chiefs<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> *Branden Albert, OT/G<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Virginia<o:p></o:p>
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> 6<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> New York Jets<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> *Vernon Gholston, DE<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Ohio St.<o:p></o:p>
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> 7<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> New England Patriots (from SF)<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> *Aqib Talib, CB<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Kansas<o:p></o:p>
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> 8<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Baltimore Ravens<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Matt Ryan (http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/player/profile?playerId=146254), QB<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Boston College<o:p></o:p>
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> 9<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Cincinnati Bengals<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Sedrick Ellis, DT<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> USC<o:p></o:p>
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> 10<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> New Orleans Saints<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Tennessee St.<o:p></o:p>
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> 11<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Buffalo Bills<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> *Derrick Harvey, DE<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Florida<o:p></o:p>
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> 12<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Denver Broncos<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Keith Rivers, LB<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> USC<o:p></o:p>
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> 13<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Carolina Panthers<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> *Ryan Clady, OT<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Boise St.<o:p></o:p>
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> 14<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Chicago Bears<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Chris Williams, OT<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Vanderbilt<o:p></o:p>
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> 15<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Detroit Lions<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> *Rashard Mendenhall (http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/player/profile?playerId=174861), RB<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Illinois<o:p></o:p>
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> 16<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Arizona Cardinals<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Leodis McKelvin, CB<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Troy<o:p></o:p>
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> 17<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Minnesota Vikings<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> *Phillip Merling, DE<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Clemson<o:p></o:p>
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> 18<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Houston Texans<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> *Jonathan Stewart (http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/player/profile?playerId=173412), RB<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Oregon<o:p></o:p>
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> 19<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Philadelphia Eagles<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Jeff Otah, OT<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Pittsburgh<o:p></o:p>
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> 20<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Tampa Bay Buccaneers<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Mike Jenkins, CB<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> South Florida<o:p></o:p>
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> 21<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Washington Redskins<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> *Devin Thomas (http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/player/profile?playerId=183856), WR<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Michigan St.<o:p></o:p>
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> 22<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Dallas Cowboys (from CLE)<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> *Felix Jones (http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/player/profile?playerId=170926), RB<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Arkansas<o:p></o:p>
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> 23<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Pittsburgh Steelers<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Kentwan Balmer, DT<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> North Carolina<o:p></o:p>
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> 24<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Tennessee Titans<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> *DeSean Jackson (http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/player/profile?playerId=174193), WR<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> California<o:p></o:p>
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> 25<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Seattle Seahawks<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Dustin Keller (http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/player/profile?playerId=146191), TE<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Purdue<o:p></o:p>
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> 26<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Jacksonville Jaguars<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Lawrence Jackson, DE<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> USC<o:p></o:p>
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> 27<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> San Diego Chargers<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Gosder Cherilus, OT<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Boston College<o:p></o:p>
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> 28<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Dallas Cowboys<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> *Justin King, CB<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Penn St.<o:p></o:p>
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> 29<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> San Francisco 49ers (from IND)<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> *Jerod Mayo, LB<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Tennessee<o:p></o:p>
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> 30<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Green Bay Packers<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> *Brandon Flowers, CB<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Virginia Tech<o:p></o:p>
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> 31<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> New England Patriots<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Forfeited pick<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top">
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> 32<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> New York Giants<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Tyrell Johnson, S<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;" valign="top"> Arkansas St.<o:p></o:p>
</td> </tr> </tbody></table>

[Dr. Lecter]

I do not want a DE in round 1.

While the pass rush was weak last year, the year before the Bills were top 5 inthe NFL in sacks. With the addition of Stroud, Johnson and Mitchell, a healthy LB and DB core, the return of Denney, and the deletion of Triplett the pass rush should be much better.


Get a CB or WR. Not a DE.

[Mr. Miyagi]

Only 2 WRs gone in the first, that means we should have at least one between Sweed, Kelly, and Manningham.

[Mitchy moo]

While the pass rush was weak last year, the year before the Bills were top 5 inthe NFL in sacks. With the addition of Stroud, Johnson and Mitchell, a healthy LB and DB core, the return of Denney, and the deletion of Triplett the pass rush should be much better.


If we draft Harvey, we'll be a whole lot closer to the top 5 again. Drafting a WR early is a gamble, they'll still be plenty there in the early 2nd round / late first.

[Dr. Lecter]

But the Bills also need a CB and TE in early rounds.......

[PECKERWOOD]

But the Bills also need a CB and TE in early rounds.......

We could probably land a good TE in the 4th round.

[ddaryl]

Only 2 WRs gone in the first, that means we should have at least one between Sweed, Kelly, and Manningham.

You forget about Hardy who IMO deserves to be mentioned alongside the elite WR in this draft

[Mr. Miyagi]

You forget about Hardy who IMO deserves to be mentioned alongside the elite WR in this draft
Yes that's even better!

[Jan Reimers]

I don't think, as some have suggested, that there will be as good a WR available with our 2nd round pick (40 something) as at number 11. WRs are not a dime a dozen, and we need a damned good one to make this offense go.

A quality WR is far more important than a DE, and the assumptions that Harvey is a can't miss, while any ole' WR will do, really makes me wonder.

[Philagape]

If the first pick has to be defense, I'd rather get a DE than a CB.
On any given play, a good CB shuts down one receiver, but a good pass rush disrupts the whole passing game. If the QB has time, he goes through his progressions and finds the option who isn't covered by a stud DB. This is especially important in a Cover 2.
I loved the Stroud signing, but his health history means he can't guarantee an upgraded pass rush. Our DEs haven't been good enough to rely on if we want to build a championship defense.


All that said, I still want a WR first!

[jamze132]

Man I just can't wait to listen to Kiper's stupid ass to tell the world how rediculously ******ed every team is for not drafting according to his mock...

He is one guy I would literally donkey punch in the back of the nuts if I ever ran into him.

[ParanoidAndroid]

Harvey is a complete DE who could easily become a better pass rusher than anyone we have. Schobel is ageing as well and frankly, may not have the bulk to be an effective DE anymore. Caldwell will be a solid #2 IMO. Finley is a football player, period. Greer looked like a starting quality CB last year, to me, and a healthy James could steal the job. I think depth would suffice in the form of Moulden. Guyton provides depth at OLB. Caulcrick projects as a starter at FB. O'Hara holds the clipboard. Garcon could be a small school sleeper and McDuffie has some potential at least to provide depth.
1. Harvey (DE)
2. Caldwell (WR)
3. Finley (TE)
4. Moulden (CB)
4. Sullivan (C)
5. Guyton (LB)
6. Caulcrick (FB)
7. O'hara (QB)
7. Garcon (WR)
7. McDuffie (G)

[Earthquake Enyart]

Dustin Keller moving up into round 1. Boiler up.

[Michael82]

If the first pick has to be defense, I'd rather get a DE than a CB.
On any given play, a good CB shuts down one receiver, but a good pass rush disrupts the whole passing game. If the QB has time, he goes through his progressions and finds the option who isn't covered by a stud DB. This is especially important in a Cover 2.
I loved the Stroud signing, but his health history means he can't guarantee an upgraded pass rush. Our DEs haven't been good enough to rely on if we want to build a championship defense.


All that said, I still want a WR first!
Excellent post, Philagape! I am the same way.

[Dujek]

Has nobody told Kiper that we held a poll and the Bills are definitely taking a WR because we say so?

[casdhf]

The problem with taking a WR like Hardy in the 2nd is that he isn't going to be ready to play. He's got the skill, but he's very raw. We need someone that can step in and contribute now. I hope we can manage to land Kelly one way or another.

[YardRat]

I want Mel Kiper's job.

It pays more than a weatherman, and you can be less accurate.