Why did Malcolm Kelly Lose Our Consideration at 11?

[Midwesternbillsfan]

More appropriately stated, what did he do to ever earn it?

Malcolm Kelly was initially told by the NFL Draft Advisory Committee that he was a second-round pick; a well-known draft site's blog intimates that his own coaches felt less optimistic and tried to dissuade him from leaving school early, feeling that he was a 3rd or 4th round prospect. So Kelly initially was given a 2nd-round grade by the NFL's Draft Advisory Committee, his own coaches allegedly didn't even share that much optimism, and then he proceeded to not be able to work out at the Combine, nor Oklahoma's first pro day, because of a long-lingering quadriceps injury. Then when he finally had his opportunity to make an argument for the first-round yesterday he was described at first as brash and self-absorbed before an embarrassing forty time- not to mention poor performances in other drills- made him whiny and flagrantly accusatory of his own coaching staff and college.

So how exactly has he parlayed that initial 2nd-round consideration into the top-11... of the first round!?!? Did he do it when he was injured and couldn't/didn't participate at all in the Combine? Did he do it when he was still injured three/four weeks later and couldn't participate in Oklahoma's official pro-day? Or did he do that when he finally did have his own pro day to validate any notion that he's a first-round talent, a mere 17 days before the draft, that he virtually self-destructed, revealing not only stunted ability for a skill position player but also a proclivity for assigning blame somewhere other than himself?

I'm going to give the Bills the benefit of what amounts to still some doubt for me that Buffalo won't take him at 11; but when did he ever deserve it?

[THATHURMANATOR]

Because in a 3 step drop offense a WR who is slow off the ball is a waist of time.

[The Answer]

More appropriately stated, what did he do to ever earn it?

Malcolm Kelly was initially told by the NFL Draft Advisory Committee that he was a second-round pick; a well-known draft site's blog intimates that his own coaches felt less optimistic and tried to dissuade him from leaving school early, feeling that he was a 3rd or 4th round prospect. So Kelly initially was given a 2nd-round grade by the NFL's Draft Advisory Committee, his own coaches allegedly didn't even share that much optimism, and then he proceeded to not be able to work out at the Combine, nor Oklahoma's first pro day, because of a long-lingering quadriceps injury. Then when he finally had his opportunity to make an argument for the first-round yesterday he was described at first as brash and self-absorbed before an embarrassing forty time- not to mention poor performances in other drills- made him whiny and flagrantly accusatory of his own coaching staff and college.

So how exactly has he parlayed that initial 2nd-round consideration into the top-11... of the first round!?!? Did he do it when he was injured and couldn't/didn't participate at all in the Combine? Did he do it when he was still injured three/four weeks later and couldn't participate in Oklahoma's official pro-day? Or did he do that when he finally did have his own pro day to validate any notion that he's a first-round talent, a mere 17 days before the draft, that he virtually self-destructed, revealing not only stunted ability for a skill position player but also a proclivity for assigning blame somewhere other than himself?

I'm going to give the Bills the benefit of what amounts to still some doubt for me that Buffalo won't take him at 11; but when did he ever deserve it?

Because our scouting department is smart enough to realize he's not a 1st round calibur player.

The Answer currently has Kelly graded as a mid 5th/early 6th round prospect and look for him to go there on draft day unless a team wants to gamble.

~The Answer

[Captain gameboy]

The Bills haven't done a thing.

This is all message board crap.

Let the unpaid GM's hammer them after they do what they think is best for the Bills, but don't directly align with draft "experts."

[Bmax]

Kelly is the 13th ranked WR on my draft board .....



BMAX

[yordad]

Kelly is the 13th ranked WR on my draft board .....



BMAX:headscrat

13th? From a slower then expected 40 time with what may or may not be a legit complaint?

To answer the original question, he is a huge red zone threat, something we need. He has some of, if not the best hands in the draft. And, it was thought he was blazing fast, considering he blew by people in college. Not only that, he is physical, can block, and can go over the middle.

Not "considering" him at 11 (pre 40 results) is what what have made me scratch my head. Heck, he is still on my first round radar. Even though I have, and have had, Sweed graded just as high.

[Kenny]

I'm going to give the Bills the benefit of what amounts to still some doubt for me that Buffalo won't take him at 11; but when did he ever deserve it?

IMO, he never 'deserved' the 11th pick, -and I believe none of the WR's in this class are worth it.

The only reason he or any other WR coming out this year is even discussed at the 11th spot is because it's one of our needs.

[Mahdi]

I wouldnt be upset with Kelly at 11 at all.... Our scouting staff is pretty good and if they feel Kelly is worth it to the BUFFALO BILLS then Im good with it. Who cares what draft prognosticators think. Malcolm Kelly can have a HUGE impact on the Bills offense and IMO that makes him worth an 11th no matter what.

BTW, how fast do you think Marques Colston runs a 40? Not fast at all I bet but he's very tough to cover. Kelly's strength is his ability to use his body and be explosive which is exactly what we dont have in Buffalo. Why is that not worth the 11th pick?

Another consideration is that you dont need a fast 40 to be dangerous in the Redzone!

[Ickybaluky]

I don't think Kelly is worth the 11th, but he has 1st round value, IMO. If they Bills trade down to late-teens/early 20's, he would be a great pick. If they reach for him a little, I don't think it will be a dreadful move if they feel he is a guy they really need.

For all the people who are hung up on his 40, did they watch him play in college? He showed a knack for getting deep, averaging 16 YPR. He is a big guy with a big frame who has great hands. He is a guy who knows how to use his body and has great timing to jump up and make a play on the ball. He has to play physical and use his size, but he is a good fit in the NFL. I probably wish he were a little more consistent for the kind of WR he is, but part of that is his playing with 1st year starters at QB the last couple seasons. He has the ability to fight for the ball in traffic.

Is he a guy who is going to catch a short hitch and take it all the way? No, he doesn't have that kind of explosiveness. However, he has skills. IMO, he is as pro-ready as any WR in this draft, and will make an early impact. I think he would be a great opposite Lee Evans, who is a deep threat. Kelly is more along the lines of a Michael Irvin/Keyshawn Johnson WR (a couple of other guys who lacked great timed speed). I don't know if he will be as good as those guys, but that is the prototype he needs to follow.

[Midwesternbillsfan]

Here's my primary problem with taking Malcolm Kelly at 11: after his self-admitted disappointing pro-day (4.75 and 4.68 forties; 32" vertical; 9'6" long jump) and the frustration and finger-pointing he exhibited after it, the sentiment around the league, it seems, is that he- if ever did- doesn't have a grade that would justify taking 11th; he might still have that high of grade here but likely he doesn't elsewhere. So even if Kelly were to succeed after being taken 11th by the Bills, that wouldn't completely validate his selection, not if he very reasonably will be made available at 41. Teams must go after players that they want. However, they must remain cognizant about where other teams' probably generally rank these same players. And if you assess league-wide value, too, you end up w/more prospects that you covet(ed).

To illustrate this, last year the Bills were considering Marshawn Lynch, Paul Posluszny, and a 3rd player (believed to be Darrelle Revis) at 14. Marv Levy said he asked Tom Modrak who was most likely to stay around longer between Lynch and Posluszny; Modrak correctly said Posluszny. So the Bills took Lynch at 12 (knowing he'd be gone in four picks to Green Bay) and then actively worked the phones to make their way back into the late 1st/early 2nd (working out a deal at 34 w/Detroit) for Posluszny. So they received both guys. And it wouldn't have worked out the other way; if the Bills take Posluszny at 12, they don't have the ammunition to be able to trade back up high enough for Lynch.

Anyway, my point is... I don't think Malcolm Kelly warrants the 11th overall pick and taking him there might squeeze us out of another player we really like. If the Bills draft Derrick Harvey, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Mike Jenkins, Antoine Cason, etc. at 11, I could accept Kelly at 41; I just don't think there's a rationale for taking him at 11.

[Mahdi]

Here's my primary problem with taking Malcolm Kelly at 11: after his self-admitted disappointing pro-day (4.75 and 4.68 forties; 32" vertical; 9'6" long jump) and the frustration and finger-pointing he exhibited after it, the sentiment around the league, it seems, is that he- if ever did- doesn't have a grade that would justify taking 11th; he might still have that high of grade here but likely he doesn't elsewhere. So even if Kelly were to succeed after being taken 11th by the Bills, that wouldn't completely validate his selection, not if he very reasonably will be made available at 41. Teams must go after players that they want. However, they must remain cognizant about where other teams' probably generally rank these same players. And if you assess league-wide value, too, you end up w/more prospects that you covet(ed).

To illustrate this, last year the Bills were considering Marshawn Lynch, Paul Posluszny, and a 3rd player (believed to be Darrelle Revis) at 14. Marv Levy said he asked Tom Modrak who was most likely to stay around longer between Lynch and Posluszny; Modrak correctly said Posluszny. So the Bills took Lynch at 12 (knowing he'd be gone in four picks to Green Bay) and then actively worked the phones to make their way back into the late 1st/early 2nd (working out a deal at 34 w/Detroit) for Posluszny. So they received both guys. And it wouldn't have worked out the other way; if the Bills take Posluszny at 12, they don't have the ammunition to be able to trade back up high enough for Lynch.

Anyway, my point is... I don't think Malcolm Kelly warrants the 11th overall pick and taking him there might squeeze us out of another player we really like. If the Bills draft Derrick Harvey, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Mike Jenkins, Antoine Cason, etc. at 11, I could accept Kelly at 41; I just don't think there's a rationale for taking him at 11.
Valid points... but its a huge risk. What if Buffalo loses out on Sweed, Kelly, Hardy, and Thomas by the time they pick in the second. Then we are left with the second tier group of WRs. If we go into the season without a #2 that can produce in his first season our offense is done for another season. And the other factor you have to look at is when the Bills pick in the second round is a player like Manningham more valuable then lets say a pass rusher like Avril or a top CB like Cason? Or even the top TE in the draft that may be there still. If we pass on WR in the second we could be looking at the 3rd round to get the right value that you are talking about.

At some point the Bills will have to "reach" somewhat and take a player that will have the most impact on their offense. I would rather we reach for the top WR in this draft then for the 5th or 6th best WR.

[Midwesternbillsfan]

Valid points... but its a huge risk. What if Buffalo loses out on Sweed, Kelly, Hardy, and Thomas by the time they pick in the second. Then we are left with the second tier group of WRs. If we go into the season without a #2 that can produce in his first season our offense is done for another season. And the other factor you have to look at is when the Bills pick in the second round is a player like Manningham more valuable then lets say a pass rusher like Avril or a top CB like Cason? Or even the top TE in the draft that may be there still. If we pass on WR in the second we could be looking at the 3rd round to get the right value that you are talking about.

At some point the Bills will have to "reach" somewhat and take a player that will have the most impact on their offense. I would rather we reach for the top WR in this draft then for the 5th or 6th best WR.

I'ts not all about value for me; it's also about need and those two must be weighed against one another. If the Bills have Devin Thomas ranked 15th on their draft board and Mike Jenkins ranked 12th, I hoped they'd give the nod to Thomas; if it's that close, need is the deciding factor. If Thomas was 22nd and Jenkins 10th, that disparity in value is great enough to go w/the secondary (pardon the pun) need, which is Jenkins.

I didn't say I personally didn't want a WR at 11- I just don't want Malcolm Kelly at that point. Frankly, I hope the Bills take Devin Thomas 11th overall. I love his size/speed ratio, his strong frame, and his explosive 'RAC' ability, which should work well with the three-step drops we're going to be incorporating into the offense quite a bit more. And Devin Thomas is an exponential riser who had an outstanding Combne AND more production in 2007 than his counterparts. Because of where his value stands now, he'd represent much less of a reach than a WR like Kelly; anymore, there's litle chance Thomas lasts to 21 much less 41 but Kelly's another story; I like our chances- if we still want him- of adding him in the 2nd.

[Mahdi]

I'ts not all about value for me; it's also about need and those two must be weighed against one another. If the Bills have Devin Thomas ranked 15th on their draft board and Mike Jenkins ranked 12th, I hoped they'd give the nod to Thomas; if it's that close, need is the deciding factor. If Thomas was 22nd and Jenkins 10th, that disparity in value is great enough to go w/the secondary (pardon the pun) need, which is Jenkins.

I didn't say I personally didn't want a WR at 11- I just don't want Malcolm Kelly at that point. Frankly, I hope the Bills take Devin Thomas 11th overall. I love his size/speed ratio, his strong frame, and his explosive 'RAC' ability, which should work well with the three-step drops we're going to be incorporating into the offense quite a bit more. And Devin Thomas is an exponential riser who had an outstanding Combne AND more production in 2007 than his counterparts. Because of where his value stands now, he'd represent much less of a reach than a WR like Kelly; anymore, there's litle chance Thomas lasts to 21 much less 41 but Kelly's another story; I like our chances- if we still want him- of adding him in the 2nd.
Well I would also be all for Devin Thomas... as of now he and Kelly are even in my book. What one of them will add in speed the other will give us in power and redzone abilities.

[Midwesternbillsfan]

Well I would also be all for Devin Thomas... as of now he and Kelly are even in my book. What one of them will add in speed the other will give us in power and redzone abilities.

The thing that I'm trying to reiterate, though, is that right now they're likely not even in the eyes of the other teams that are scouting them. Obviously, we don't know what teams' boards look like but every objective indication- and I doubt you'd disagree- is that Devin Thomas has seen his stock rise while Kelly's has seen his slid. Anyway, the point that I'm trying to make is the one I illustrated with Lynch and Posluszny; you have to pursue players who want but also be cognizant of their league-wide value. And if you correctly analyze players' values, you can receive more of them that you like (if we take Posluszny at 12, we can't get Lynch, too; we didn't and ultimately added both). You can't get Devin Thomas at 41; you very well may be able to get Kelly there. That would also enhance Devin Thomas' status over Malcolm Kelly at 11, to say nothing about the other attributes that he brings to the Bills.

[Mahdi]

The thing that I'm trying to reiterate, though, is that right now they're likely not even in the eyes of the other teams that are scouting them. Obviously, we don't know what teams' boards look like but every objective indication- and I doubt you'd disagree- is that Devin Thomas has seen his stock rise while Kelly's has seen his slid. Anyway, the point that I'm trying to make is the one I illustrated with Lynch and Posluszny; you have to pursue players who want but also be cognizant of their league-wide value. And if you correctly analyze players' values, you can receive more of them that you like (if we take Posluszny at 12, we can't get Lynch, too; we didn't and ultimately added both). You can't get Devin Thomas at 41; you very well may be able to get Kelly there. That would also enhance Devin Thomas' status over Malcolm Kelly at 11, to say nothing about the other attributes that he brings to the Bills.
Thing is with all the teams that need WR I doubt Kelly lasts till 41. San Fran, Washington, Philly , Dallas , Tampa Bay, Seattle, Chicago, Jets, Ravens, Dolphins, Saints, St-Louis.... Any of these teams can easily take a WR either at their pick in the 1st round or before us in the second. Kelly, Sweed, Thomas and Hardy will not last till 41.

[ddaryl]

Hell i want a WR but I don't want any of the WR's at #11. i still want a trade down scenario.

and I do not buy the argument that a slow 40 time is no good for a 3 step drop passing attack. Kelly's size is what a 3 step drop pass needs. He has longer arms, and able to out jump and reach over most any DB or LB. A WR with a fast 40 time still has to gain seperation and in a 3 step drop that takes A LOT MORE then a 4.4 40yd time. in fact I seriously doubt a 4.6 and 4.4 timed speed for the 40yd dash would have much difference in a 3 step drop quick pass scenario.

[Tatonka]

Because our scouting department is smart enough to realize he's not a 1st round calibur player.

The Answer currently has Kelly graded as a mid 5th/early 6th round prospect and look for him to go there on draft day unless a team wants to gamble.

~The Answer
the answers draft opinions mean about as much as what i just flushed down the toilet.

i do like the little out you gave yourself though on the "if a team wants to gamble" so that when your 5 or 4 rounds off, you can say "team x wanted to gamble".

cute.

[ddaryl]

the answers draft opinions mean about as much as what i just flushed down the toilet.

i do like the little out you gave yourself though on the "if a team wants to gamble" so that when your 5 or 4 rounds off, you can say "team x wanted to gamble".

cute.


LMFAO !!!! +++ rep for you :posrep:

I saw someone else state that Kelly is the 13th best WR in the draft "on their draft board"

equally entertaining

[Tatonka]

Thing is with all the teams that need WR I doubt Kelly lasts till 41. San Fran, Washington, Philly , Dallas , Tampa Bay, Seattle, Chicago, Jets, Ravens, Dolphins, Saints, St-Louis.... Any of these teams can easily take a WR either at their pick in the 1st round or before us in the second. Kelly, Sweed, Thomas and Hardy will not last till 41.


i agree.. and that is the reason that i really think this draft is going to turn out to be a major disappointment for most us.

i am extremely worried that because no wr necessarily deserves the 11th pick (maybe thomas).. and we go a different direction, we are going to be stuck with a paul friggen hubbard as the guy who is going to take over for lee evans when he peaces out after this year.. how lame is that going to be. this draft could be absolutely disastrous for this team.

[Midwesternbillsfan]

i agree.. and that is the reason that i really think this draft is going to turn out to be a major disappointment for most us.

i am extremely worried that because no wr necessarily deserves the 11th pick (maybe thomas).. and we go a different direction, we are going to be stuck with a paul friggen hubbard as the guy who is going to take over for lee evans when he peaces out after this year.. how lame is that going to be. this draft could be absolutely disastrous for this team.

If you're going to reach, why not at least take the lesser reach? What he lacks in Kelly's 6'4" size, Devin Thomas compensates with still good size at 6'2", a chised 218 pounds frame, and big-play ability with the ball in space. And if Evans is going to "peace out" at the end of the year (I don't believe he will; the franchise tag is very compatible with 'cash to the cap' because it only involves counting the cap the one-year salary as opposed to that '08 salary AND the total amount of guaranteed money in an extension), why not take Devin Thomas, a player who can be a possession receiver but also has the speed to be at least an occasional vertical threat?

[ddaryl]

And if Evans is going to "peace out" at the end of the year (I don't believe he will; the franchise tag is very compatible with 'cash to the cap' because it only involves counting the cap the one-year salary as opposed to that '08 salary


Well if we do tag Evans next year we're trading him, because his contract demands will be completely outrageous IMO.

Which is why we need get 2 quality WR's in this draft, and why I am hoping for the trade down scenario.