WR 1st rounders risky?

[bocephuz]

2006 – PIT - Pick #23 Santonio Holmes (Solid Starter)

2005 – CLE - pick #3 Braylon Edwards ( Could be perennial pro bowler)

2005 – MIN - pick #7 Troy Williamson (Bust)

2005 – DET - #10 Mike Williams ( Big Bust)

2005 – JAC - #21 Matt Jones ( # 3 at best )

2005 – BAL - #22 Mark Clayton ( average)

2005 – ATL - #27 Roddy White ( sub par)

2004 – DET - #7 Roy Williams ( Solid Starter)

2004 – JAC - # 9 Reggie Williams ( sub par)

2004 – BUF - #13 Lee Evans ( Solid Starter)

2004 – TAM- #15 Michael Clayton ( has fallen of a cliff)

2004 – ATL - #29 Michael Jenkins ( average starter)

2004 – SFO - #31 Rashaun Woods
No longer in league

Out of 13 Wide receivers selected in the 1st round 4 are solid starters/potential pro bowlers - 5 Busts - and 4 are average at best. Seems like a crapshoot to me with WR... I think if you looked at the Defensive Ends drafted 2004-2006 you'd see fewer busts.

[HHURRICANE]

Re: WR 1st rounders risky?

2006 – PIT - Pick #23 Santonio Holmes (Solid Starter)

2005 – CLE - pick #3 Braylon Edwards ( Could be perennial pro bowler)

2005 – MIN - pick #7 Troy Williamson (Bust)

2005 – DET - #10 Mike Williams ( Big Bust)

2005 – JAC - #21 Matt Jones ( # 3 at best )

2005 – BAL - #22 Mark Clayton ( average)

2005 – ATL - #27 Roddy White ( sub par)

2004 – DET - #7 Roy Williams ( Solid Starter)

2004 – JAC - # 9 Reggie Williams ( sub par)

2004 – BUF - #13 Lee Evans ( Solid Starter)

2004 – TAM- #15 Michael Clayton ( has fallen of a cliff)

2004 – ATL - #29 Michael Jenkins ( average starter)

2004 – SFO - #31 Rashaun Woods
No longer in league

Out of 13 Wide receivers selected in the 1st round 4 are solid starters/potential pro bowlers - 5 Busts - and 4 are average at best. Seems like a crapshoot to me with WR... I think if you looked at the Defensive Ends drafted 2004-2006 you'd see fewer busts.

But we need a WR!!! Even if he's missing a leg we should take him at #11.

Good post.

[Jan Reimers]

Re: WR 1st rounders risky?

I think you could run this analysis for almost any position, and come up with about the same number of hits and misses.

[HHURRICANE]

Re: WR 1st rounders risky?

I'd bet $10,000 that Harvey will outplay any of the WRs we are talking about.

[EDS]

Re: WR 1st rounders risky?

2005 – ATL - #27 Roddy White ( sub par)

Roddy White had over 1100 receiving yards last year despite the Falcons going through three different starting QBs over the course of the season. I would argue that that is a pretty decent showing for a second year receiver. Obviously he has much to prove going forward, but characterizing him as "sub par" is unfair.

[Philagape]

Re: WR 1st rounders risky?

Lee Evans was a reach. At the time. And he had knee surgery.

[ParanoidAndroid]

Re: WR 1st rounders risky?

Mark Clayton is under-utilized. Get him a stable QB and he does better than the 12-start 67-catch, 939 yard season he had in 2006 courtesy of McNair.
Roddy White had a break-out year.
You somehow left Larry Fitzgerald off your list.

The "risk" gets even greater as you progress through the draft, so if you need a WR, then round one is the place to look. Your point is lost here.

I'm an advocate for Harvey, but not for the simple reason of "risk."

[yordad]

Re: WR 1st rounders risky?

I read this on buffalobills.com. Seems interesting. I've posted it on here already, but....

03-14-2008, 11:59 PM

craigaharrington Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: Posts: 720

Why get a WR in the first round? Here is an aggregate of the 1st and 2nd round WRs picked over the last five years: http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/ful...&type=position 2007 pick catches TDs name team 1 2 48 4 Calvin Johnson Detroit Lions 1 9 34 2 Ted Ginn Jr. Miami Dolphins 1 23 70 5 Dwayne Bowe Kansas City Chiefs 1 27 0 0 Robert Meachem New Orleans Saints 1 30 20 1 Craig Davis San Diego Chargers 1 32 37 3 Anthony Gonzalez Indianapolis Colts 2 44 31 4 Sidney Rice Minnesota Vikings 2 45 6 0 Dwayne Jarrett Carolina Panthers 2 51 8 0 Steve Smith New York Giants 2006 1 25 49 2 Santonio Holmes Pittsburgh Steelers 2 36 13 3 Chad Jackson New England Patriots 2 44 5 0 Sinorice Moss New York Giants 2 52 45 3 Greg Jennings Green Bay Packers 2005 1 3 32 3 Braylon Edwards Cleveland Browns 1 7 24 2 Troy Williamson Minnesota Vikings 1 10 29 1 Mike Williams Detroit Lions 1 21 36 5 Matt Jones Jacksonville Jaguars 1 22 44 2 Mark Clayton Baltimore Ravens 1 27 29 3 Roddy White Atlanta Falcons 2 35 43 4 Reggie Brown Philadelphia Eagles 2 39 18 0 Mark Bradley Chicago Bears 2 55 15 1 Roscoe Parrish Buffalo Bills 2 58 5 0 Terrence Murphy Green Bay Packers 2 61 3 0 Vincent Jackson San Diego Chargers 2004 1 3 58 8 Larry Fitzgerald Arizona Cardinals 1 7 54 8 Roy Williams Detroit Lions 1 9 27 1 Reggie Williams Jacksonville Jaguars 1 13 48 9 Lee Evans Buffalo Bills 1 15 80 7 Michael Clayton Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1 29 7 0 Michael Jenkins Atlanta Falcons 1 31 7 1 Rashaun Woods San Francisco 49ers 2 50 0 0 Devery Henderson New Orleans Saints 2 54 31 1 Darius Watts Denver Broncos 2 62 47 5 Keary Colbert Carolina Panthers 2003 1 2 22 3 Charles Rogers Detroit Lions 1 3 66 4 Andre Johnson Houston Texans 1 17 35 1 Bryant Johnson Arizona Cardinals 2 44 3 1 Taylor Jacobs Washington Redskins 2 45 16 2 Bethel Johnson New England Patriots 2 54 101 8 Anquan Boldin Arizona Cardinals 2 60 18 4 Tyrone Calico Tennessee Titans In the first year, 1st round picks averaged 37 catches (37.2) 2nd round picks averaged 22 catches (22.7) 1st round picks averaged 3 TDs (3.3) 2nd round picks averaged 2 TDs (2.0) If you take Anquan Boldin out (clearly an anomaly among 2nd round picks) 2nd round picks averaged 18 catches (18.1) 2nd round picks averaged 2 TDs (1.6) Here's the list of 1st rounders Calvin Johnson Charles Rogers Braylon Edwards Larry Fitzgerald Andre Johnson Troy Williamson Roy Williams Ted Ginn Jr. Reggie Williams Mike Williams Lee Evans Michael Clayton Bryant Johnson Matt Jones Mark Clayton Dwayne Bowe Santonio Holmes Robert Meachem Roddy White Michael Jenkins Craig Davis Rashaun Woods Anthony Gonzalez and 2nd rounders Reggie Brown Chad Jackson Mark Bradley Sidney Rice Sinorice Moss Taylor Jacobs Dwayne Jarrett Bethel Johnson Devery Henderson Steve Smith Greg Jennings Darius Watts Anquan Boldin Roscoe Parrish Terrence Murphy Tyrone Calico Vincent Jackson Keary Colbert The first round selections have not only a dramatic propensity to still be in the league, but dominate the 2nd round picks in quantity of pro bowl selections and starting positions. With an open need at #2 receiver, it seems clear that a 2nd round pick is unlikely to get the job done in year 1 and beyond. We have two 2nd round receivers (Parrish, Reed) and both are clearly not #2 material. We pick at #11, but recent history has shown that 1st year results do not show the first receiver taken as clearly the superior to the rest of the first round as practical thinking would infer. If we pick a WR in round 2 instead of 1, be prepared for Josh Reed to get a lot of snaps at #2. The best overall performance for a rookie receiver in the last 5 years has been an average of pick 17 (17.4) http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/fea...aluechart.html The value of trading down from pick 11 to pick 17 is (1250-950) 300 points or the 60th pick (near bottom quarter of the 2nd round) So, logically-speaking, it is in the best interest of the Bills to trade down, pick the best WR available and pick up the extra 2nd. (of course you need to find a trade partner) The cost of trading our 2nd up to pick 17 would be (950-480) 470 points or roughly-speaking our 2nd this year and next.

[Night Train]

Re: WR 1st rounders risky?

It's not so much about actual big production but whether the WR & TE we draft can attract enough coverage to give Lee Evans an 85-1400 12 TD season he is more than capable of, if he isn't double/triple teamed like he has been lately.

Evans is a player worth throwing the big $$ at. Now give him the help.

[YardRat]

Re: WR 1st rounders risky?

I'd bet $10,000 that Harvey will outplay any of the WRs we are talking about.

Are you talking catches, yards, TD's or YAC? Either way, you choose...I'll take that bet.