patmoran2006
04-13-2008, 12:12 PM
OK, so I just put out there my two-round mock draft today.
http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showthread.php?t=150478
For those who are too lazy or don't care to see the list, I got Buffalo selecting WR Devin Thomas in the first and TE Martellus Bennett in the second.
Here are some things I found interesting while compiling my mock, and most of them are Buffalo Bills related.
* If the Bills want to select Thomas or any other WR with the 11th pick, I highly doubt they'd have to stand pat at #11 to do it. My educated guess is that there isn't any way the next seven teams drafting after Buffalo will go WR in the first (Denver, Carolina, Chicago, Detroit, Arizona, Minnesota, Houston). The next threat I see out there who could take Thomas, Sweed or even Kelly after Buffalo would be Philadelphia at #19. I expect (going by my mock) Tampa Bay (20th), Washington (21st) and Tennessee (24th) to be other teams who could go WR in round one. Of the three, I would expect Tennessee to be the most aggressive in trying to move up to get Thomas or Sweed (I think they'd love to have Sweed to go with Vince Young). So the OBVIOUS move, should Buffalo target a WR with their first would be to move down. The danger is by moving down to far a Tennessee or Tampa could springboard ahead of them and take their guy from underneath them. I still think trading down is the best move, as I personally don't see a large talent gap between Thomas, Sweed or Kelly (and possibly even Hardy).
* If the Bills are NOT looking at WR with their first round pick, they would be well advised to stand pat at #11. If they were to target Derrick Harvey (DE) a popular guy on this board; it's possible he could be there. In fact, going by the 10 teams picking ahead of us I see New England as the only real potential threat to take him. Assuming they didn't, it would take a team leapfrogging ahead of Buffalo to draft Harvey before us. Minnesota (picking 17th) would be the biggest threat.
In terms of cornerback, if Buffalo was targetting at #11 what is presumed to be the big three (McKelvin, DRC, Jenkins)- I think it's a little more unpredictable. New England, Baltimore and New Orleans are all teams picking ahead of us who could easily take a corner. If that happened, that would leave the big three gone by the time we're on the clock, and obviously our priority would change and Talib and Flowers are the next tier and certainly not worth consideration at #11. Basically what Im saying is that IF we are looking corner first, it's going to be a sketchy wait. I think Baltimore goes corner with McKevlin for sure. And New England and New Orleans are wild cards. In my mock I have the Patriots taking Keith Rivers (LB) and New Orleans taking DRC at 10. Under that scenario, that would leave Mike Jenkins as the best CB still on the board for us.
* Even though the Bills are almost certain to not take an offensive lineman at #11, having some good lineman in that spot available could help them should they want to trade down. At least according to my own mock, I got Jake Long as the only OL going before we pick at 11. That would leave Ryan Clady, Chris Williams, Jeff Otah and Brandon Albert as guys a team may look to target at #11. Carolina and Chicago are two teams picking a few spots after us that may want to move up, Minnesota is another possibility. So even though we won't be going OL in the first, it could benefit us IF we want to move down by still having these guys on the board.
SUMMARY:
* If we want to tab Derrick Harvey, I think we stand pat at #11, hope NE doesn't take him 7th and if they don't I think he's ours.
* If we want a corner in round one, we have to hope that between NE, Baltimore and Cincinnati that they don't all go corner. The rankings of the big three can be debated from now til draft day; but McKelvin, DRC and Jenkins could all be gone. I expect only Jenkins to be available to us at #11.
*IF we want a WR, either Thomas or Sweed. Then I think that a trade down is far and away the most sensible thing. Of course to trade down you need a partner wanting to move up. If this was to happen, I think these are the most logical candidates
17th- Minnesota- might be willing to move up to 11th for Harvey.
16th - Arizona- could want to move up to get one of the "big three" corners.
19th- Philadephia- could target a corner as well, especially if they trade Sheppard. Beware though, make sure they're targetting a corner and not the WR you covet.
I think if we made any of these trades, we'd still end up with our choice of Sweed/Thomas. And since I'm an advocate of us NOT going Harvey or CB at #11, this is what I hope happens.
http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showthread.php?t=150478
For those who are too lazy or don't care to see the list, I got Buffalo selecting WR Devin Thomas in the first and TE Martellus Bennett in the second.
Here are some things I found interesting while compiling my mock, and most of them are Buffalo Bills related.
* If the Bills want to select Thomas or any other WR with the 11th pick, I highly doubt they'd have to stand pat at #11 to do it. My educated guess is that there isn't any way the next seven teams drafting after Buffalo will go WR in the first (Denver, Carolina, Chicago, Detroit, Arizona, Minnesota, Houston). The next threat I see out there who could take Thomas, Sweed or even Kelly after Buffalo would be Philadelphia at #19. I expect (going by my mock) Tampa Bay (20th), Washington (21st) and Tennessee (24th) to be other teams who could go WR in round one. Of the three, I would expect Tennessee to be the most aggressive in trying to move up to get Thomas or Sweed (I think they'd love to have Sweed to go with Vince Young). So the OBVIOUS move, should Buffalo target a WR with their first would be to move down. The danger is by moving down to far a Tennessee or Tampa could springboard ahead of them and take their guy from underneath them. I still think trading down is the best move, as I personally don't see a large talent gap between Thomas, Sweed or Kelly (and possibly even Hardy).
* If the Bills are NOT looking at WR with their first round pick, they would be well advised to stand pat at #11. If they were to target Derrick Harvey (DE) a popular guy on this board; it's possible he could be there. In fact, going by the 10 teams picking ahead of us I see New England as the only real potential threat to take him. Assuming they didn't, it would take a team leapfrogging ahead of Buffalo to draft Harvey before us. Minnesota (picking 17th) would be the biggest threat.
In terms of cornerback, if Buffalo was targetting at #11 what is presumed to be the big three (McKelvin, DRC, Jenkins)- I think it's a little more unpredictable. New England, Baltimore and New Orleans are all teams picking ahead of us who could easily take a corner. If that happened, that would leave the big three gone by the time we're on the clock, and obviously our priority would change and Talib and Flowers are the next tier and certainly not worth consideration at #11. Basically what Im saying is that IF we are looking corner first, it's going to be a sketchy wait. I think Baltimore goes corner with McKevlin for sure. And New England and New Orleans are wild cards. In my mock I have the Patriots taking Keith Rivers (LB) and New Orleans taking DRC at 10. Under that scenario, that would leave Mike Jenkins as the best CB still on the board for us.
* Even though the Bills are almost certain to not take an offensive lineman at #11, having some good lineman in that spot available could help them should they want to trade down. At least according to my own mock, I got Jake Long as the only OL going before we pick at 11. That would leave Ryan Clady, Chris Williams, Jeff Otah and Brandon Albert as guys a team may look to target at #11. Carolina and Chicago are two teams picking a few spots after us that may want to move up, Minnesota is another possibility. So even though we won't be going OL in the first, it could benefit us IF we want to move down by still having these guys on the board.
SUMMARY:
* If we want to tab Derrick Harvey, I think we stand pat at #11, hope NE doesn't take him 7th and if they don't I think he's ours.
* If we want a corner in round one, we have to hope that between NE, Baltimore and Cincinnati that they don't all go corner. The rankings of the big three can be debated from now til draft day; but McKelvin, DRC and Jenkins could all be gone. I expect only Jenkins to be available to us at #11.
*IF we want a WR, either Thomas or Sweed. Then I think that a trade down is far and away the most sensible thing. Of course to trade down you need a partner wanting to move up. If this was to happen, I think these are the most logical candidates
17th- Minnesota- might be willing to move up to 11th for Harvey.
16th - Arizona- could want to move up to get one of the "big three" corners.
19th- Philadephia- could target a corner as well, especially if they trade Sheppard. Beware though, make sure they're targetting a corner and not the WR you covet.
I think if we made any of these trades, we'd still end up with our choice of Sweed/Thomas. And since I'm an advocate of us NOT going Harvey or CB at #11, this is what I hope happens.