A Big-Time Convo I had With a Draft Guy Last Night

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  • patmoran2006
    Ole' Ralphie SCROOGE
    • Dec 2005
    • 19840

    A Big-Time Convo I had With a Draft Guy Last Night

    Last night I had a 2+ hour conversation with a guy named Rob who works not only in the media for a living, but specifically for a major draft website. Let me just say that much more than me or most of you, he knows exactly what he’s talking about. I’ll note that last year he called the Willis McGahee trade (the team and the compensation) two weeks before it happened, and he also correctly called us moving back up and getting Paul Posluszny. In other words, he’s not Skooby’s “rich friend” (sorry Skoob, had to) Of course that don’t mean he’s right everytime he says something (who is), but I’ll tell you that I trust his sources and knowledge far more than anyone else, and that includes most of the “celebrity” (Kiper, McShay) draft experts.

    Here are some notes I took and things I’ve been informed of, in no particular order. You take it for what it’s worth. I guess I’ll have to revist this thread on Monday April 28th.
    • If the Bills keep the 11th pick, you can forget about WR. You can also pretty much write off DRC and especially Mike Jenkins. From what I’ve been told; the Bills are locked into one of three players; Leodis McKelvin, Bryan Albert, and Derrick Harvey. They definitely expect Albert to be gone and probably McKelvin too. That would leave their decision to be if Harvey is worth the 11th overall pick.
    • Also stated the obvious, that Buffalo will definitely take a WR with one of their first two picks. However, from what he’s gathered, the person Modrak likes the most right now, by FAR is neither Devin Thomas or Malcom Kelly. It’s actually Limas Sweed.

    He then laid out several trade scenarios, which I suppose make sense.
    • He said if the Bills stand pat at #11 they will definitely go defense with the pick unless Albert is still on the board (I don’t think he will be either). I (this is me not him with the opinion) think McKelvin is gone for sure. So it would be either Harvey or DRC. But he gave STRONG indication the Bills will NOT draft a WR with the 11th pick.
    • Anyway. He told me if they keep the pick #11 I could bet the house they will be trading back up for the third consecutive year to get a wide receiver. He even gave me the TEAM that would be most likely. It would be Seattle with the 25th pick. He pointed out their first round value at #25 is 720 points. Ironicially, Buffalo’s 2nd and 3rd rounder is worth the exact same 720 points. However (don’t know if ya’ll like this) but the WR we’d be trading up for wouldn’t be Sweed. It would be.. Malcom Kelly. The reasoning is Sweed will definitely get taken by Tennessee at #24, and he expects Thomas to go in the 17-21 range. For me personally, I don’t know how anyone could argue with a draft early consisting of Harvey/Albert/DRC and Malcom Kelly.
    • If Buffalo wants to secure Sweed they wouldn’t have the ammo to move up past the 19th pick. The play would be to trade down from 11. He gave me the team most likely to move as being the Detroit Lions, who want Harvey. So if you’re a fan of the trade down, then hope Harvey is on the board at #11.
    • Like I said, this is random and in no particular order. I took notes on the fly. He said Malcom Kelly could go as high as 21 (Washington) or as low as the mid 30’s, but there is no way he’d be on the board at #41. He definitely expects him to go third after Thomas and Sweed.
    • I don’t know much at all about this James Hardy, but these notes don’t reflect anything great, and from what I’ve been told (and I had no clue) Hardy has some major-league character issues (maybe someone can enlighten the boards?)
    • Getting back to the trade-up for a WR with the 2nd pick. He said the other team that would be most willing to work out a deal would be Pittsburgh at #23. Makes sense, since they have some holes/depth to fill and pick one spot before Tennessee, who’s absolutely going to go WR.
    • Not as high on DRC as a lot of people on here.
    • Talked again about how the Bills are a big fan of trading up with that second pick and would rather get two impact players in the draft than more players (I guess quality vs quantity). He all-but-guarenteed we’d do the same thing we’ve done the past two years. Mentioned Atlanta (34th and 37th pick) and Baltimore (38th) specificially.
    • Lastly, said if by some chance the Bills don’t go WR with their first pick and DON’T trade up before pick #41, that a guy to watch out for with the 41st pick would be WR Jordy Nelson. Personally, I know very very little about him, but he compared him to a Joe Jerevicius. He also mentioned another WR named Justin Harper as a sleeper, but not in the 2nd round.
    • The last person he talked specifically about was Albert. He said drafting him and putting him on the OL would make the line so much stronger that it would become the strength of the team, and said SPECIFICALLY he would bring a greater instant impact than any offensive player in the draft (for this team anyway).
    • Talked briefly about Trent Edwards and said he expects him to take a major step this year. He said he can be a younger version of Jeff Garcia.
    • Lastly, and maybe most surprising, he didn’t mention any TE specifically, and doesn’t expect the Bills to take a TE with any of their first 3-4 picks. He said that he doesn’t think so, but that the bills brass really likes this Teyo Johnson and between he, Royal and Anderson they think they’re set at the position for this year. I find that very hard to believe.

    Anyway. That’s about it from this conversation. To summarize, it doesn’t look like the Bills will go WR with the 11th pick, in fact he pretty much guaranteed it. Sounds like if we take a WR its going to come via trade down for Sweed, trade up for Sweed or Kelly, take this Jordy Nelson in round two.

    When I asked him for his “official” prediction; he said he thinks Buffalo will draft Derrick Harvey or McKelvin (who I think is gone for sure personally, so I guess Harvey) with the 11th pick, and then trade their second and third rounders to Seattle and take Malcomb Kelly with the 25th pick (Sweed and Thomas would be gone)


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  • Dr. Lecter
    Zero for Zero!
    • Mar 2003
    • 67946

    #2
    Re: A Big-Time Convo I had With a Draft Guy Last Night

    Interesting Pat.

    I am getting more and more interested in Albert myself.

    I would move Butler to center, as he is 10X better than Fowler and if you recall he practiced at center some last year.
    Originally posted by mysticsoto
    Lecter is right in everything he said.

    Comment

    • Dr. Lecter
      Zero for Zero!
      • Mar 2003
      • 67946

      #3
      Re: A Big-Time Convo I had With a Draft Guy Last Night

      BTW, trading down if Harvey is stil there is something I recommended recently. I woud rather get an extra third, get Thomas or Sweed, and use the 2nd and 2 3rds to fill other holes.
      Originally posted by mysticsoto
      Lecter is right in everything he said.

      Comment

      • Scumbag College
        Registered User
        • Oct 2002
        • 4949

        #4
        Re: A Big-Time Convo I had With a Draft Guy Last Night

        The O Line of Peters-Dock-Butler-Albert-Walker would help out Trent and Lynch. Maybe Royal and the other TEs won't be so terrible and have to stay in to block on third downs. I hate the thought of trading up and losing the third round pick, becuase I really do think that there are alot of holes on this team that can be addressed early in the draft. I do like Sweed though.
        Remember Kevin Everett in your thoughts.

        Vote Nader in 2008!

        http://www.votenader.org/

        Comment

        • DraftBoy
          Administrator
          • Jul 2002
          • 107442

          #5
          Re: A Big-Time Convo I had With a Draft Guy Last Night

          Interesting stuff
          COMING SOON...
          Originally posted by Dr.Lecter
          We were both drunk and Hillary did not look that bad at 2 AM, I swear!!!!!!

          Comment

          • patmoran2006
            Ole' Ralphie SCROOGE
            • Dec 2005
            • 19840

            #6
            Re: A Big-Time Convo I had With a Draft Guy Last Night

            Can Butler play center?


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            Comment

            • Dr. Lecter
              Zero for Zero!
              • Mar 2003
              • 67946

              #7
              Re: A Big-Time Convo I had With a Draft Guy Last Night

              Originally posted by patmoran2006
              Can Butler play center?
              I remember they tried him there last year early/middle of the season. They did not make the change. Whether he could learn if he had all of TC or not, I am not sure. He is a smart guy though.

              If they get Albert and bench Butler while keeping Fowler out there, I will be pissed.
              Originally posted by mysticsoto
              Lecter is right in everything he said.

              Comment

              • trapezeus
                Legendary Zoner
                • Oct 2004
                • 19525

                #8
                Re: A Big-Time Convo I had With a Draft Guy Last Night

                even if this is entirely wrong, the "inside"-ness of this story makes the count down to the draft that more exciting.

                i personally know nothing of college players until a few weeks before the draft. and then it gets whittled down so quickly to the 2 or 3 people we "should" take, that i have no idea about these other people.

                Thanks for this, Pat.

                Comment

                • DraftBoy
                  Administrator
                  • Jul 2002
                  • 107442

                  #9
                  Re: A Big-Time Convo I had With a Draft Guy Last Night

                  I still think DRC is our pick when we get to 11, but I wouldnt be upset with Harvey or Albert.
                  COMING SOON...
                  Originally posted by Dr.Lecter
                  We were both drunk and Hillary did not look that bad at 2 AM, I swear!!!!!!

                  Comment

                  • Captain Obvious
                    I can feel your anger.I can feel your hate. Give in to the DARK SIDE! With every neg you become MINE
                    • Jul 2005
                    • 1080

                    #10
                    Re: A Big-Time Convo I had With a Draft Guy Last Night

                    Is this the same guy who told you The Bills were going to take Jon Beason last year?

                    Here to point out the obvious....

                    Comment

                    • Dr. Lecter
                      Zero for Zero!
                      • Mar 2003
                      • 67946

                      #11
                      Re: A Big-Time Convo I had With a Draft Guy Last Night

                      Originally posted by DraftBoy
                      I still think DRC is our pick when we get to 11, but I wouldnt be upset with Harvey or Albert.
                      If the Bills draft DRC, you will bust a nut.

                      I would love McKelvin. Harvey? Meh. Not as much.
                      Originally posted by mysticsoto
                      Lecter is right in everything he said.

                      Comment

                      • Mitchy moo
                        Roways rooking ahread!
                        • Sep 2005
                        • 18380

                        #12
                        Re: A Big-Time Convo I had With a Draft Guy Last Night

                        I heard that we are taking Harvey if he is on the board, if a better trade down doesn't arise. I started a thread on it and mentioned it consistently.

                        I cannot say who told me or really call the originator a friend but they we're fairly convinced that the Bills could still get a WR of value by trading back in the late 1st round. If you find my thread, it will verify the same but it's good to hear a similiar thing from others.

                        On another note, if Ocho is available please give up the first and get his butt here.

                        Comment

                        • Devin
                          The Octagon
                          • Apr 2003
                          • 23878

                          #13
                          Re: A Big-Time Convo I had With a Draft Guy Last Night

                          I made the points on Branden Albert and Harvey before, and Id agree. I also took Nelson in my last mock.

                          This guy is so stealing my ****. lol j/k.

                          I agree for the most part though

                          Discussing Albert: http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/sho...=150455&page=2

                          Mock: http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/sho...d.php?t=150494
                          http://gridironjunkies.net/forums/index.php

                          Comment

                          • THATHURMANATOR
                            Registered User
                            • Jul 2002
                            • 69112

                            #14
                            Re: A Big-Time Convo I had With a Draft Guy Last Night

                            Interesting Pat. Thanks for posting

                            Comment

                            • TacklingDummy
                              Unreachable Douche
                              • Jul 2002
                              • 71725

                              #15
                              Re: A Big-Time Convo I had With a Draft Guy Last Night

                              There is alot of self-proclaimed draft experts out there.

                              Comment

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