Bills look like a contender for wild-card

[YardRat]

http://www.democratandchronicle.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080420/SPORTS0101/804200331/1007/SPORTS

The 2008 Buffalo Bills (http://www.democratandchronicle.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080420/SPORTS0101/804200331/1007/SPORTS#) appear to be on the upgrade and they have a favorable schedule.

But are they good enough to end their eight-year playoff drought?
Here's my annual pre-draft, early-bird projected record for the 2008 Buffalo Bills (probable record in bold face; optimistic scenario in parentheses):

Matthews has the Bills anywhere from 7-9 to 11-5.

[Meathead]

i saw this article early this am and the title doesnt make sense

he says the probable record is 7-9. that doesnt mean pessimistic it means likely. if optimistic is four games above probable then pessimistic would be four games below at 3-13

if thats the case then why does he say playoff contender?

the good news is that hes always been notoriously pessimistic when it comes to the bills so thats a good sign anyway

[Luisito23]

why does he say playoff contend?


To fit in?....

[HHURRICANE]

If this team had to go into this year's season without '08 draft picks would this team make the playoffs?

My answer would be no. Based on that premise I now have to believe that we our a playoff team with our new draft picks? Ouch.

[Mitchy moo]

This reads like braille.

[Typ0]

I don't see us making the playoffs ... but that could be due to being used to the team sucking.

[YardRat]

i saw this article early this am and the title doesnt make sense

he says the probable record is 7-9. that doesnt mean pessimistic it means likely. if optimistic is four games above probable then pessimistic would be four games below at 3-13

if thats the case then why does he say playoff contender?

the good news is that hes always been notoriously pessimistic when it comes to the bills so thats a good sign anyway

I thought the same thing. Nice of him to give himself an eight-game leeway on his predictions, and I expected a higher 'probable' record of 10-6 or 9-7.

Hey...you gotta sell papers, I guess.

[Meathead]

the two most important elements that usually decide whether a team makes the nfl playoffs are 1) injuries and 2) steady qb play. needless to say the bills did poorly in both those areas last season

and yet the bills were seriously in the playoff hunt going into week 15 despite an ineffective qb duo and a catastrophic string of injuries that was arguably the worst ever seen in franchise history

factors likely in the bills favor in 08:

1. qb play - edwards is going into his second year with 9 starts. although he regressed as the season went on you could reasonably expect any player to improve going into their sophmore season as the starter. jp was steadily progressing until a quite disappointing regression in 07. i tend to think that regression was more an abberation and he should be at least better when he gets the chance to play, but that admittedly is speculation

2. injuries - its hard to imagine having another season like last year. even half the injuries would be more than 'normal' for an nfl team. even an average year of injuries would be a tremendous difference in the talent and consistency the team can put on the field every sunday

3. depth - the bright spot of all those injuries is that the lower strings got plenty of playing time, especially on defense. with a little luck the bills can better endure time when regular starters are out of the lineup

4. schedule - strength of schedule always changes from where it started but this year instead of starting with one of the hardest they are starting with one of the easiest. after dropping two games to the cheats the bills will have a schedule loaded with creampuffs

i agree with matthews initial premise that the bills are a wc contender but id put the probable record at 9-7. that should keep them in the playoff hunt very late into the season

as usual it only takes two plays an entire season to result in a two game swing at the end of the year. so lets keep our fingers crossed that those two plays go in the bills favor this time and push them into the playoffs

[ddaryl]

I'm sorry but how can anyone not think the Bills will be a playoff team this year.

We were decimated by injuries last year with a harder schedule and a crappy OC, and a pitiful DL... blah blah blah

We've had a major upgrade to our DL, which alone should translate into 2-3 more wins then last season IMO...

We should see some help in the draft, and our QB is no longer a rookie to boot.

With our favorable schedule I just can't see us not knockin on the playoff door this year.

Shame on me for being an optomist... I'm such a bad Bills fan

[Johnny Bugmenot]

Staying healthy will be the big key.

If this team can't stay healthy and gets another rash of injuries for a second year in a row, then it's not just a fluke. It's a crisis. Something is being done wrong.

The other key is Trent Edwards learning how to play in the snow. Thus far he hasn't demonstrated that he can. That MUST change.

[DrGraves]

I don't know I think we should be competing for a playoff spot but I could see us dropping games to Seattle and Jax and starting 0-2...

[feelthepain]

the two most important elements that usually decide whether a team makes the nfl playoffs are 1) injuries and 2) steady qb play. needless to say the bills did poorly in both those areas last season


They did? Well maybe you should be watching whatever games the rest of the Bill fans here were watching last year, cause most of what I'm reading on this site is Trent Edwards has solidified himself as a starting QB in the NFL. Glad to see not all Bill fans don't put the cart before the horse.

....and then I read this,


and yet the bills were seriously in the playoff hunt going into week 15 despite an ineffective qb duo and a catastrophic string of injuries that was arguably the worst ever seen in franchise history

Consider two things here with that comment, the Bills lose their final 3 games....for a reason and they had not won a meaniful game all year. I'd say there is no way the Bills were in the mix for the playoffs and if they were it would just prove how little it takes to make the playoffs with a team nearly last in the league on both sides of the ball having a shot at the playoffs. It's nowhere in your post, but you need to consider how much luck went into that 7-9 record. Considering the Bills overall staistics, the Bills were very lucky to be just 7-9.




1. qb play - edwards is going into his second year with 9 starts. although he regressed as the season went on you could reasonably expect any player to improve going into their sophmore season as the starter. jp was steadily progressing until a quite disappointing regression in 07. i tend to think that regression was more an abberation and he should be at least better when he gets the chance to play, but that admittedly is speculation

Well if that's how you look at the QB situation, then you also need to consider Trents seriously long history of missing games due to injuries. It will be a factor.

Speaking of injuries,


2. injuries - its hard to imagine having another season like last year. even half the injuries would be more than 'normal' for an nfl team. even an average year of injuries would be a tremendous difference in the talent and consistency the team can put on the field every sunday

The Bills injuries were to mostly roll players or backups. You should consider you're injuries fortunate in that they weren't to your best players.


3. depth - the bright spot of all those injuries is that the lower strings got plenty of playing time, especially on defense. with a little luck the bills can better endure time when regular starters are out of the lineup

Maybe you can refresh my memory, cause I don't seem to remember one Bill player missing any significant time that was a legit starter, probowler or all pro.


4. schedule - strength of schedule always changes from where it started but this year instead of starting with one of the hardest they are starting with one of the easiest. after dropping two games to the cheats the bills will have a schedule loaded with creampuffs

That's the very last area I would consider an advantage for anything. Just because some teams played bad last year doesn't mean they will this year. And do you believe the Bills were the only team to have issues with injuries last year? BTW the Dolphins, Jets and Pats will also have an eaiser schedule. The Pats especially.


i agree with matthews initial premise that the bills are a wc contender but id put the probable record at 9-7. that should keep them in the playoff hunt very late into the season

I don't, there's more evidence the Bills will be a sub 500. team again then there's evidence they take that next step. Anything is possible of course, but the norm for the Bills is to lose and play avg football. Take the Cowboys game last year. Tony Romo tried as hard as he could to hand the Bills the win in their house and the Bills couldn't do anything on offense with all the turnovers they had. That was just the middle of the season last year, the Bills then finish the 07 season with 3 straight loses .

The Bills do little in FA to improve their secondary, LB's, Dline, TE, WR. The players the Bills did sign were the usual second level non superstar type of players to fill needs. The Bills did the usual spend as little do as little to get by type of moves.

For a team that's on the longest playoff drought in the division and maybe in football, you would like to see the Bills work a little hardfer to imporve the talent level to give them the best chance to make the playoffs. That's clearly not what the Bills did this off season.

[Jeff1220]

Consider two things here with that comment, the Bills lose their final 3 games....for a reason and they had not won a meaniful game all year. I'd say there is no way the Bills were in the mix for the playoffs and if they were it would just prove how little it takes to make the playoffs with a team nearly last in the league on both sides of the ball having a shot at the playoffs. It's nowhere in your post, but you need to consider how much luck went into that 7-9 record. Considering the Bills overall staistics, the Bills were very lucky to be just 7-9.

Or were they unlucky in not being 10-6?



The Bills injuries were to mostly roll players or backups. You should consider you're injuries fortunate in that they weren't to your best players.
Maybe you can refresh my memory, cause I don't seem to remember one Bill player missing any significant time that was a legit starter, probowler or all pro.

Both QBs missed time.
Marshawn Lynch missed (I think 3) weeks. (During which #2 RB A-Train went out).
Pro Bowler Jason Peters missed the remaining games of the season when he was hurt vs. the Giants. This one hurt them the most!
Starting MLB Poz lost for the season.
Starting FS Ko out for the year, after a promising rookie year.
Recently re-signed DE Ryan Denney out for season.
etc.


That's the very last area I would consider an advantage for anything. Just because some teams played bad last year doesn't mean they will this year.

Well, the Dullfins will.


And do you believe the Bills were the only team to have issues with injuries last year?

No, but I have no doubt that it hit the the worst!


For a team that's on the longest playoff drought in the division and maybe in football,

I trust the Dullfins to hold this distinction next.

[PECKERWOOD]

I don't know how anybody could say we are going to the playoffs when we have such a big question mark at QB, what a leap. 30th ranked defense and 31st ranked offense, but yeah we are definately contenders. :rolleyes: I'm so sick of talk, talk is cheap.

[FlyingDutchman]

you gotta see how people can be optimistic about this team. they were two heartbreaking games from being 9-7 all while losing half their team to IR. With these players coming back, some nice FA pick ups, a rather easy schedule and hopefully a strong draft, how can you not think the bills have at least A SHOT at a wild card?

[YardRat]

They did? Well maybe you should be watching whatever games the rest of the Bill fans here were watching last year...

Blah, blah, blah...

Yada, yada, yada...

For a team that's on the longest playoff drought in the division and maybe in football, you would like to see the Bills work a little hardfer to imporve the talent level to give them the best chance to make the playoffs. That's clearly not what the Bills did this off season.

No offense, but it's little bit difficult to accept criticism from someone whose team was a missed OT field goal away from pulling an o'fer.

[feelthepain]

No offense, but it's little bit difficult to accept criticism from someone whose team was a missed OT field goal away from pulling an o'fer.

Seriously, what does my favorite teams record have to do with the truth about the Bills? Did I make anything up? Did I not include facts to back up my opinion? No offense, but you should grow up and relize the Bills are not a good team much less a playoff team, just because a rival fan knows it, doesn't make it wrong.

[PECKERWOOD]

Seriously, what does my favorite teams record have to do with the truth about the Bills? Did I make anything up? Did I not include facts to back up my opinion? No offense, but you should grow up and relize the Bills are not a good team much less a playoff team, just because a rival fan knows it, doesn't make it wrong.

I wouldn't say that we are a bad team, if we had more consistent QB we would definately be an above average team. 7-9 with horrible QB play is nothing to scoff at. ( I'm just not optimistic about our QB position right now. A good QB will upgrade our offense AND defense. )

[feelthepain]

Or were they unlucky in not being 10-6?

Yeah the 30th ranked Offense and the 31st ranked Defense was just UNLUCKY....classic.


Both QBs missed time.
Big deal, neither QB has proven a thing in the NFL. Hardly a loss.


Marshawn Lynch missed (I think 3) weeks. (During which #2 RB A-Train went out).

Missing a few games is lot better then missing 11 or more games. Zach Thomas, Ronnie Brown, Trent Green, Yeremiah Bell and Chris Chambers (trade) all missed 11 or more games for the Dolphins last year, and none of them played against the Bills in either game in 07 while Channing Crowder missed 5, Vonnie Holliday missed 4 and Andre Goodman missed 3 games each. With all that talent not in the lineup against the Bills last year Bill fans act like the Bills beat a healthy Dolphins team and the Bills were just better. It's just another reason why Bill fans are clueless.


Pro Bowler Jason Peters missed the remaining games of the season when he was hurt vs. the Giants. This one hurt them the most!

Seriously he missed the "part" of the last game of the year. Are you seriously gonna tell me the reason the Bills had nearly the worst offense in the lague was becuse your over hyped LT missed part of the last game of the season? That's some funny stuff!!


Starting MLB Poz lost for the season.

Hardly a loss of epic proportions. He wasn't exactly putting up ROY numbers before he was injured. I like Posluzny and I think he'll be around for a bunch of years, but he wasn't a staple of which your defensive scheme would hinge.


Starting FS Ko out for the year, after a promising rookie year.

A loss yes, but is he better then any Dolphin player I mentioned? Not hardly.


Recently re-signed DE Ryan Denney out for season.

Wow, the laughs just keep coming.


Well, the Dullfins will.

Say's Ms.Cleo!


No, but I have no doubt that it hit the the worst!

Well I don't, your team lost not one significant player for any length of time in 07.


I trust the Dullfins to hold this distinction next.

Well lets see, I'm not the least bit worried about Miami, they're a team with a long history of success and a very short history of failures. The Bills on the other hand are just the opposite.

[FlyingDutchman]

Big deal, neither QB has proven a thing in the NFL. Hardly a loss.



Missing a few games is lot better then missing 11 or more games. Zach Thomas, Ronnie Brown, Trent Green, Yeremiah Bell and Chris Chambers (trade) all missed 11 or more games for the Dolphins last year, and none of them played against the Bills in either game in 07 while Channing Crowder missed 5, Vonnie Holliday missed 4 and Andre Goodman missed 3 games each. With all that talent not in the lineup against the Bills last year Bill fans act like the Bills beat a healthy Dolphins team and the Bills were just better. It's just another reason why Bill fans are clueless.



And we werent just as badly banged up? If you dont think having Poz would have made a difference your nuts. The kid was leading the league in tackling, and was showing signs of being a damn good player. We lost our starting DE, our starting and improving FS, had a back up safety playing linebacker, and a WR playing safety. Lynch was hurt for a little and no #2 WR.

Id say the playing field was equal, difference is the Bills didnt curl up and die for the season.

[FlyingDutchman]

Well lets see, I'm not the least bit worried about Miami, they're a team with a long history of success and a very short history of failures. The Bills on the other hand are just the opposite.

:rofl: Im sure the last time the Dolphins did anything of consequence, you probably werent even born

[feelthepain]

:rofl: Im sure the last time the Dolphins did anything of consequence, you probably werent even born

And of course you would be wrong.

[FlyingDutchman]

And of course you would be wrong.

gettin old huh buddy?:fogey:

[feelthepain]

And we werent just as badly banged up? If you dont think having Poz would have made a difference your nuts. The kid was leading the league in tackling, and was showing signs of being a damn good player. We lost our starting DE, our starting and improving FS, had a back up safety playing linebacker, and a WR playing safety. Lynch was hurt for a little and no #2 WR.

Id say the playing field was equal, difference is the Bills didnt curl up and die for the season.


Based on pure numbers, the Bills did not lose one player last year that's ever been siginificant in the NFL. avg at best maybe, significant.?" Never! That's the long and short of it. I know Bill fans want the world to believe they're better then they really are, but the fact that is, the Bills not making the playoffs since 99 is a clue to everyone else why the Bills are what they are.

The Dolphins have a few of bad seasons since 99 and the Bill fans act like that's a whole lot worse then 8 out of the last 9 seasons of bad football for the Buffalo Bills. Fact is, Bill fans are just desperate not to be the worst team in football and they'll ignore the big picture to live in some fantasy world where 7-9, the 30th overall offense the the 31st overall defense for the last 2 years is on the cusp of the playoffs. I just can't get over how Bill fans come up with this stuff, seriously.

[Earthquake Enyart]

Based on pure numbers, the Bills did not lose one player last year that's ever been siginificant in the NFL. avg at best maybe, significant.?" Never! That's the long and short of it. I know Bill fans want the world to believe they're better then they really are, but the fact that is, the Bills not making the playoffs since 99 is a clue to everyone else why the Bills are what they are.

The Dolphins have a few of bad seasons since 99 and the Bill fans act like that's a whole lot worse then 8 out of the last 9 seasons of bad football for the Buffalo Bills. Fact is, Bill fans are just desperate not to be the worst team in football and they'll ignore the big picture to live in some fantasy world where 7-9, the 30th overall offense the the 31st overall defense for the last 2 years is on the cusp of the playoffs. I just can't get over how Bill fans come up with this stuff, seriously.
We can see the playoffs next year.

Easy. 4-2 in the division, just like last year. 3-1 vs. the NFC. Got the weak west.

I'm already 7-3. Split the rest and we're 10-6. Wildcard baby.

[feelthepain]

I did a little research and this is what I found for Miami and Buffalo since 99.

Since 99,

Miami had 6 winning seasons, the Bills-4. *note I consider 8-8 a winning season. Miami was either above 500. or below 500. the Bills had 2 of their 4 winning seasons right on the cusp with 8-8 records.

Miami has 3 seasons with double digit wins, the Bills have 1

Miami has 6 more total wins and 6 less total loses then the Bills since 99.

Miami last made the playoffs in 2001 and the Bills in 99. However Miami was good enough (wins/loses) wise to make the playoffs 3 times since 99 and the Bills just once since 99 and that was 99.

Miami finished 1st or second in the division 5 times since 99 the Bills just once.

NBow I'm sure that If I went even deeper into the stats I would find Miami was also among the top half of the league on offense and especially defense during thie time while the Bills haven't been near the top of either since you boy MM was the HC.

Now if Bill fans wish to continue to lie to themselves about what their team has really been the last decade that's up to them, but I hardly think Bill fans can talk much smack about a team that's been pretty damn sad the last 9 years.

[feelthepain]

We can see the playoffs next year.

Easy. 4-2 in the division, just like last year. 3-1 vs. the NFC. Got the weak west.

I'm already 7-3. Split the rest and we're 10-6. Wildcard baby.

Well, everyones allowed to dream.

[MikeInRoch]

You know what is so funny? We were hearing from you that the Dolphins were a contender at this time last year. I guess that puts in perspective how much we can trust your assessment.

[feelthepain]

You know what is so funny? We were hearing from you that the Dolphins were a contender at this time last year. I guess that puts in perspective how much we can trust your assessment.
And Bill fans talk playoffs and division titles every year, whats the difference? At Leats Miami has been a good team the majority of the last decade with a top 5 defense and to 15 offesnse. The Bills haven't even been close.

BTW, at the end of 06 we were one season removed from a 9-7 season in which we won our last 6 games in a row. We also had a top 3 defense at the end of 06 and we had the DPOY. I'd say that's a hell of a lot more reason to be optimistic to make the playoffs in 07 then the fans of a 7-9 team with the 30th ranked offense and 31st ranked defense that lost their last 3 games. But I'm sure you don't see the difference....if so, you really need to get a clue.

[Oaf]

He sure went out on a limb on that one.