Bills look like a contender for wild-card

[YardRat]

http://www.democratandchronicle.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080420/SPORTS0101/804200331/1007/SPORTS

The 2008 Buffalo Bills appear to be on the upgrade and they have a favorable schedule.

But are they good enough to end their eight-year playoff drought?
Here's my annual pre-draft, early-bird projected record for the 2008 Buffalo Bills (probable record in bold face; optimistic scenario in parentheses):

Matthews has the Bills anywhere from 7-9 to 11-5.

[Meathead]

Re: Bills look like a contender for wild-card

i saw this article early this am and the title doesnt make sense

he says the probable record is 7-9. that doesnt mean pessimistic it means likely. if optimistic is four games above probable then pessimistic would be four games below at 3-13

if thats the case then why does he say playoff contender?

the good news is that hes always been notoriously pessimistic when it comes to the bills so thats a good sign anyway

[Luisito23]

Re: Bills look like a contender for wild-card

why does he say playoff contend?

To fit in?....

[HHURRICANE]

Re: Bills look like a contender for wild-card

If this team had to go into this year's season without '08 draft picks would this team make the playoffs?

My answer would be no. Based on that premise I now have to believe that we our a playoff team with our new draft picks? Ouch.

[Mitchy moo]

Re: Bills look like a contender for wild-card

This reads like braille.

[Typ0]

Re: Bills look like a contender for wild-card

I don't see us making the playoffs ... but that could be due to being used to the team sucking.

[YardRat]

Re: Bills look like a contender for wild-card

i saw this article early this am and the title doesnt make sense

he says the probable record is 7-9. that doesnt mean pessimistic it means likely. if optimistic is four games above probable then pessimistic would be four games below at 3-13

if thats the case then why does he say playoff contender?

the good news is that hes always been notoriously pessimistic when it comes to the bills so thats a good sign anyway

I thought the same thing. Nice of him to give himself an eight-game leeway on his predictions, and I expected a higher 'probable' record of 10-6 or 9-7.

Hey...you gotta sell papers, I guess.

[Meathead]

Re: Bills look like a contender for wild-card

the two most important elements that usually decide whether a team makes the nfl playoffs are 1) injuries and 2) steady qb play. needless to say the bills did poorly in both those areas last season

and yet the bills were seriously in the playoff hunt going into week 15 despite an ineffective qb duo and a catastrophic string of injuries that was arguably the worst ever seen in franchise history

factors likely in the bills favor in 08:

1. qb play - edwards is going into his second year with 9 starts. although he regressed as the season went on you could reasonably expect any player to improve going into their sophmore season as the starter. jp was steadily progressing until a quite disappointing regression in 07. i tend to think that regression was more an abberation and he should be at least better when he gets the chance to play, but that admittedly is speculation

2. injuries - its hard to imagine having another season like last year. even half the injuries would be more than 'normal' for an nfl team. even an average year of injuries would be a tremendous difference in the talent and consistency the team can put on the field every sunday

3. depth - the bright spot of all those injuries is that the lower strings got plenty of playing time, especially on defense. with a little luck the bills can better endure time when regular starters are out of the lineup

4. schedule - strength of schedule always changes from where it started but this year instead of starting with one of the hardest they are starting with one of the easiest. after dropping two games to the cheats the bills will have a schedule loaded with creampuffs

i agree with matthews initial premise that the bills are a wc contender but id put the probable record at 9-7. that should keep them in the playoff hunt very late into the season

as usual it only takes two plays an entire season to result in a two game swing at the end of the year. so lets keep our fingers crossed that those two plays go in the bills favor this time and push them into the playoffs

[ddaryl]

Re: Bills look like a contender for wild-card

I'm sorry but how can anyone not think the Bills will be a playoff team this year.

We were decimated by injuries last year with a harder schedule and a crappy OC, and a pitiful DL... blah blah blah

We've had a major upgrade to our DL, which alone should translate into 2-3 more wins then last season IMO...

We should see some help in the draft, and our QB is no longer a rookie to boot.

With our favorable schedule I just can't see us not knockin on the playoff door this year.

Shame on me for being an optomist... I'm such a bad Bills fan

[Johnny Bugmenot]

Re: Bills look like a contender for wild-card

Staying healthy will be the big key.

If this team can't stay healthy and gets another rash of injuries for a second year in a row, then it's not just a fluke. It's a crisis. Something is being done wrong.

The other key is Trent Edwards learning how to play in the snow. Thus far he hasn't demonstrated that he can. That MUST change.

[DrGraves]

Re: Bills look like a contender for wild-card

I don't know I think we should be competing for a playoff spot but I could see us dropping games to Seattle and Jax and starting 0-2...

[feelthepain]

Re: Bills look like a contender for wild-card

the two most important elements that usually decide whether a team makes the nfl playoffs are 1) injuries and 2) steady qb play. needless to say the bills did poorly in both those areas last season

They did? Well maybe you should be watching whatever games the rest of the Bill fans here were watching last year, cause most of what I'm reading on this site is Trent Edwards has solidified himself as a starting QB in the NFL. Glad to see not all Bill fans don't put the cart before the horse.

....and then I read this,

and yet the bills were seriously in the playoff hunt going into week 15 despite an ineffective qb duo and a catastrophic string of injuries that was arguably the worst ever seen in franchise history

Consider two things here with that comment, the Bills lose their final 3 games....for a reason and they had not won a meaniful game all year. I'd say there is no way the Bills were in the mix for the playoffs and if they were it would just prove how little it takes to make the playoffs with a team nearly last in the league on both sides of the ball having a shot at the playoffs. It's nowhere in your post, but you need to consider how much luck went into that 7-9 record. Considering the Bills overall staistics, the Bills were very lucky to be just 7-9.

1. qb play - edwards is going into his second year with 9 starts. although he regressed as the season went on you could reasonably expect any player to improve going into their sophmore season as the starter. jp was steadily progressing until a quite disappointing regression in 07. i tend to think that regression was more an abberation and he should be at least better when he gets the chance to play, but that admittedly is speculation

Well if that's how you look at the QB situation, then you also need to consider Trents seriously long history of missing games due to injuries. It will be a factor.

Speaking of injuries,

2. injuries - its hard to imagine having another season like last year. even half the injuries would be more than 'normal' for an nfl team. even an average year of injuries would be a tremendous difference in the talent and consistency the team can put on the field every sunday

The Bills injuries were to mostly roll players or backups. You should consider you're injuries fortunate in that they weren't to your best players.

3. depth - the bright spot of all those injuries is that the lower strings got plenty of playing time, especially on defense. with a little luck the bills can better endure time when regular starters are out of the lineup

Maybe you can refresh my memory, cause I don't seem to remember one Bill player missing any significant time that was a legit starter, probowler or all pro.

4. schedule - strength of schedule always changes from where it started but this year instead of starting with one of the hardest they are starting with one of the easiest. after dropping two games to the cheats the bills will have a schedule loaded with creampuffs

That's the very last area I would consider an advantage for anything. Just because some teams played bad last year doesn't mean they will this year. And do you believe the Bills were the only team to have issues with injuries last year? BTW the Dolphins, Jets and Pats will also have an eaiser schedule. The Pats especially.

i agree with matthews initial premise that the bills are a wc contender but id put the probable record at 9-7. that should keep them in the playoff hunt very late into the season

I don't, there's more evidence the Bills will be a sub 500. team again then there's evidence they take that next step. Anything is possible of course, but the norm for the Bills is to lose and play avg football. Take the Cowboys game last year. Tony Romo tried as hard as he could to hand the Bills the win in their house and the Bills couldn't do anything on offense with all the turnovers they had. That was just the middle of the season last year, the Bills then finish the 07 season with 3 straight loses .

The Bills do little in FA to improve their secondary, LB's, Dline, TE, WR. The players the Bills did sign were the usual second level non superstar type of players to fill needs. The Bills did the usual spend as little do as little to get by type of moves.

For a team that's on the longest playoff drought in the division and maybe in football, you would like to see the Bills work a little hardfer to imporve the talent level to give them the best chance to make the playoffs. That's clearly not what the Bills did this off season.

[Jeff1220]

Re: Bills look like a contender for wild-card

Consider two things here with that comment, the Bills lose their final 3 games....for a reason and they had not won a meaniful game all year. I'd say there is no way the Bills were in the mix for the playoffs and if they were it would just prove how little it takes to make the playoffs with a team nearly last in the league on both sides of the ball having a shot at the playoffs. It's nowhere in your post, but you need to consider how much luck went into that 7-9 record. Considering the Bills overall staistics, the Bills were very lucky to be just 7-9.

Or were they unlucky in not being 10-6?

The Bills injuries were to mostly roll players or backups. You should consider you're injuries fortunate in that they weren't to your best players.
Maybe you can refresh my memory, cause I don't seem to remember one Bill player missing any significant time that was a legit starter, probowler or all pro.

Both QBs missed time.
Marshawn Lynch missed (I think 3) weeks. (During which #2 RB A-Train went out).
Pro Bowler Jason Peters missed the remaining games of the season when he was hurt vs. the Giants. This one hurt them the most!
Starting MLB Poz lost for the season.
Starting FS Ko out for the year, after a promising rookie year.
Recently re-signed DE Ryan Denney out for season.
etc.

That's the very last area I would consider an advantage for anything. Just because some teams played bad last year doesn't mean they will this year.

Well, the Dullfins will.

And do you believe the Bills were the only team to have issues with injuries last year?

No, but I have no doubt that it hit the the worst!

For a team that's on the longest playoff drought in the division and maybe in football,

I trust the Dullfins to hold this distinction next.

[PECKERWOOD]

Re: Bills look like a contender for wild-card

I don't know how anybody could say we are going to the playoffs when we have such a big question mark at QB, what a leap. 30th ranked defense and 31st ranked offense, but yeah we are definately contenders. I'm so sick of talk, talk is cheap.

[FlyingDutchman]

Re: Bills look like a contender for wild-card

you gotta see how people can be optimistic about this team. they were two heartbreaking games from being 9-7 all while losing half their team to IR. With these players coming back, some nice FA pick ups, a rather easy schedule and hopefully a strong draft, how can you not think the bills have at least A SHOT at a wild card?