How easy would it be to Trade down in the draft?

[kernowboy]

Clearly there are considerable doubts drafting at No11. I always considered it to be a bad position to be in as whilst we might look at BPA, there are not any standout candidates and those who might justify a pick here – Clady, Albert, Otah, Harvey, Meadenhall – are not in desperately important positions. Only CB might be justified and there are concerns here about size and level of competition.

What is important about this draft is Thomas could go as high as No11, Kelly or Sweed as low as No41 and for me there is a cigarette papers width between them.
The quality at several positions is both broad and deep and therefore the number of picks in R2-R4 is important.

So whilst we hear calls to trade down, who might that be with and why would they consider dealing with us? There are some teams who have stockpiled picks and could trade up – KC and Philadelphia being two of them.

Option 1: Kansas City.

As they have No17, plus 2x 3^rd rounders off the Vikings, here are some options. If they take Gholston with No5, they still need that LT so might be tempted to move up to get Clady or Chris Williams, especially if it is out from under the nose of the Broncos. If Gholston is gone, KC may want to trade up to get Derrick Harvey, having reached for Clady earlier with their No5 pick

No17 is better territory for Devin Thomas and gives us an extra high R3 (No66 or N073) to spend on some CB and DL depth

Option 2: Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles had a bit of a sniff for Jared Allen so clearly are looking at a DE. Also with a lack of OT depth, Clady might be of interest. Unfortunately they might want to package Lito Sheppard as part of a deal and I think he is an injury risk. However a trade for No19 and No80 still looks good if not quite so attractive as the KC Chiefs deal.

So we’ve moved down into better territory to grab our WR and acquired a R3 extra pick that could enable us to get a little more depth. But here is a more radical suggestion.

Trade down a 2^nd time option:

Arthur Blank has repeatedly gone to Louisville with his entire coaching staff to see Brian Brohm. The Bucs are interested in him with the No20 pick and for me it seems pretty likely that the Dolphins might grab him with their Round 2 pick. The Falcons would have to move up and have 3x 2^nd rounders to do so.

Trading our R1 selection (No17 if KC) to the Falcons for No34 and No48 leaves the Bills maybe drafting like this.

No34: a WR like Hardy, Sweed (if he slipped) Kelly etc or maybe Nelson a little later
No41: depth behind Stround and McCargo (injury risks?) like Sims, Moore or Laws
No48: a CB or a TE, and you can take your pick of your favourite player … most will be available
No66: a TE or CB, again taking the best of who you like
No73: a RB like Ray Rice as insurance behind Marshawn, or the best interior OL guy (Pollack or Zuttah) or a DT like Marcus Harrison

By trading down we’ve filled our key needs of WR, CB, and TE, plus maybe added depth at DT and OL or possibly picked up a nice insurance policy at RB.

For me – in the deepest draft in decades, trading down has to be the No1 option. It just depends how radical we want to be

[Night Train]

Re: How easy would it be to Trade down in the draft?

Not bad at all but with 10 minutes on the clock, a team has to move fast with an offer. It seems many teams in front of us also wish to trade down. It could get wild before our pick comes up.

I just want a WR,TE,a CB or 2, a DT backup for Stroud and various depth. I don't care which round they arrive in.

The Bills are probably wise to just let the draft come to them and then see if the phone rings, while on the clock.

But if Sedric Ellis is still on the board, don't answer the phone.

[Mitchy moo]

Re: How easy would it be to Trade down in the draft?

But if Sedric Ellis is still on the board, don't answer the phone.

, Toss the phone.

[don137]

Re: How easy would it be to Trade down in the draft?

I really think it is possible for KC to trade up. With three third round picks they are in position to trade up especially if they really like Albert, Clady or Otah and do not think one will fall to them at #17.

[kernowboy]

Re: How easy would it be to Trade down in the draft?

I'm not sure it would take that long.

I think at No11, its pretty clear further down what immediate team needs are. Teams will have already made tentative inquiries as to the value of each pick.

What I have tried to do is consider the value of each pick and certainly KC would give up No17 and No66 (or No73) to move up.

The Falcons IMO would also give up 2 of their 3x 2nd Rounders to move up to grab Brian Brohm. And I would see our 2nd and 3rd rounders like this

R2a James Hardy WR
R2b Dre Moore DT/DE
R2c Justin King CB/KR
R3a John Carlson TE
R3b Ray Rice RB

I wouldn't be unhappy.

[Mahdi]

Re: How easy would it be to Trade down in the draft?

This is the bottom line for Buffalo....

If Albert or Harvey or ideally BOTH, are still on the board when the Bills pick... The phone will be ringing off the hook. Im talking serious bidding wars.

If none are available then Clady and Otah will be there and there is still a possibility. IMO there is a very good chance that a trade down would actually be easy considering the needs of the next 10 teams below them are almost identical.

Denver (OT, DE, OG)
Carolina (OT, OG, DE, RB)
Chicago(OT, OG, RB)
Detroit (OT, OG, RB, CB)
Arizona (OT, OG, RB, CB)
Kansas City (OT, OG, CB, DE)
Houston (OT, OG, DE, CB)
Philadelphia (OT, DE)
Tampa Bay (OT, OG,)


I could easily see KC trading with us so they can get either a CB like DRC or Jenkins or DE or OT. Depending on who they select at 5 and who is still available.

[historypete]

Re: How easy would it be to Trade down in the draft?

I'm always a proponent of trading down. The team still has some glaring needs, especially on offense. If we could parlay our #11 into a couple of #3's or a 2nd and 5th then this is great. We can grab Thomas, helping fill that WR hole, while also gaining extra picks to shore-up the DE, C, TE and CB spot.

I think the KC trade of Allen helps us significantly if we want to trade down. The only problem is this front office seems more willing to trade up than trade down. I don't want to re-live the whole Whitner thing, but I still believe we could have traded down with Denver and taken him at 15. Regardless, hopefully if a good deal is in place to move to 17 or 19 we jump on it because no one is trading up to get a WR. I could even be talked into trading down again to grab more picks, if the price is right, but at this point I'd be happy with one trade down and then grabbing Thomas.

[PromoTheRobot]

Re: How easy would it be to Trade down in the draft?

No one has considered how many teams before us are willing to trade down. 2 or 3 such deals will leave Buffalo in a weak position to trade down. I would not count on being able to do that, even if we wanted to.

PTR

[PromoTheRobot]

Re: How easy would it be to Trade down in the draft?

I don't want to re-live the whole Whitner thing, but I still believe we could have traded down with Denver and taken him at 15.

Believe it all you want. It doesn't make it fact. You assume we could have traded down and Donte would still be there. Remember players, not value, wins championships. I'd rather reach on every pick and get graded F- by Kiper and his ilk if it meant those players won us a Super Bowl.

PTR

[Pinkerton Security]

Re: How easy would it be to Trade down in the draft?

i understand the draft is a crap-shoot and we will be getting more quantity-wise by doing all these trades, but to me it is just taking away the opportunity to select who the Bills think is the 11th best player in the draft, or the best available.

[TigerJ]

Re: How easy would it be to Trade down in the draft?

Generally speaking it's harder to trade down than up simply because there are more teams trying to go down. However, it's probably easier to trade out of a top ten pick because there is a bit of a breal in what a #11 player can command in a rookie salary versus a top ten player. Teams have to swalllow pretty hard to pay a top ten salary and don't like to do it unless they think they're getting a must have/can't miss superstar. Detroit, Minnesota, Philadelphia, and Kansas City have all been mentioned as possible trading partners, but only the GMs of those teams know if they are really interested. It would probbably be a draft day decision, and only if a player they think of as a top ten pick drops out of the top ten.

[don137]

Re: How easy would it be to Trade down in the draft?

No one has considered how many teams before us are willing to trade down. 2 or 3 such deals will leave Buffalo in a weak position to trade down. I would not count on being able to do that, even if we wanted to.

PTR

I disagree...Clady, Albert and Otah will be sought after and all the teams drafting 12-17 except Detrot want OL help so the Bills are in great position due to it being a numbers game. Even if other teams trade up we still will be in good position. You have 4-5 teams really needing OL help and only 3 players worthy of taking this early in the draft. KC is desparate for OL help. Now that they traded Allen they will go after Long or Gholston with their #5 pick to replace Allen and then want to address OL. Huge drop off after Clady, Albert and Otah. Doubtful that any of the three will be there at #17.

[historypete]

Re: How easy would it be to Trade down in the draft?

Believe it all you want. It doesn't make it fact. You assume we could have traded down and Donte would still be there. Remember players, not value, wins championships. I'd rather reach on every pick and get graded F- by Kiper and his ilk if it meant those players won us a Super Bowl.

PTR

When we make the playoffs that might be a legitimate argument, but as of right now it isn't. Plus, Whitner, who I like and think will be a very good player, has not lived up to the expectations of the 8th overall pick.

[Michael82]

Re: How easy would it be to Trade down in the draft?

This is the bottom line for Buffalo....

If Albert or Harvey or ideally BOTH, are still on the board when the Bills pick... The phone will be ringing off the hook. Im talking serious bidding wars.

If none are available then Clady and Otah will be there and there is still a possibility. IMO there is a very good chance that a trade down would actually be easy considering the needs of the next 10 teams below them are almost identical.

Denver (OT, DE, OG)
Carolina (OT, OG, DE, RB)
Chicago(OT, OG, RB)
Detroit (OT, OG, RB, CB)
Arizona (OT, OG, RB, CB)
Kansas City (OT, OG, CB, DE)
Houston (OT, OG, DE, CB)
Philadelphia (OT, DE)
Tampa Bay (OT, OG,)


I could easily see KC trading with us so they can get either a CB like DRC or Jenkins or DE or OT. Depending on who they select at 5 and who is still available.

Just picture this.....

Harvey, Albert, and even Clady are there at #11. I guarantee that we will get quite a few calls. If I'm Buffalo, I take whatever I can get to move to no farther than pick 19.

[PECKERWOOD]

Re: How easy would it be to Trade down in the draft?

I hope we trade down multiple times this year, there are alot of players that I really like in the late 1st to early 2nd round.