Possible Trade Scenarios

[LifetimeBillsFan]

With KC acquiring Minnesota's pick at # 17 and the Chiefs needing help on both the offensive and defensive lines (as well as possibly QB), KC may be interested in trading Minny's pick to move up in the first round to get Harvey to replace J.Allen (or Clady, if the rumour about them being very interested in Ryan is true and they take him with the 5th pick).

What I could see as a very possible trade scenario is this:

KC gives Buffalo the 17th pick and their 3rd round pick (they have 3 or 4 3rd rounders now!) for the 11th pick, which allows them to take Harvey/Clady.

The Bills use the 17th pick to select the best CB still on their board: DRC, if he is still there; Jenkins; Talib or Cason.

The Bills, then, trade their 2nd round pick and KC's 3rd round pick to Seattle for their 1st round pick and take the best WR still on their board: Hardy; Kelly or Sweed.

The Bills then can use their own 3rd round pick to take the best TE still on their board: Bennett; Keller; Carlson or Davis (MSU).

What do you think?

[Mitchy moo]

I think we take Harvey with our 11th and move back into the first to take Seattle's pick for a WR. After that point, we grab a TE and a back-up QB project.

[Jan Reimers]

If we were to get a quality CB, WR and TE with our first three picks, I would be ecstatic.

[Jan Reimers]

I think we take Harvey with our 11th and move back into the first to take Seattle's pick for a WR. After that point, we grab a TE and a back-up QB project.
I think we'll wait until the 4th round to pick a situational pass rushing DE. This is a fairly deep draft for DEs, and we need help at WR, TE and CB more.

[Dr. Lecter]

I think we take Harvey with our 11th and move back into the first to take Seattle's pick for a WR. After that point, we grab a TE and a back-up QB project.

I hate and will continue to hate that scenario. That would be the worst possible case for Saturday. I would kick cats and break household items. You never addressed CB. At all.

Trade down with somebody like Detroit, snag Thomas, take CB or TE in round 2 and maybe try to get back into round 2 (with the 2 3rds and/or other picks) to get CB or TE.

Do not take a DE with the 11th pick. He will be a part time player. Bad, bad move.

[DraftBoy]

With KC acquiring Minnesota's pick at # 17 and the Chiefs needing help on both the offensive and defensive lines (as well as possibly QB), KC may be interested in trading Minny's pick to move up in the first round to get Harvey to replace J.Allen (or Clady, if the rumour about them being very interested in Ryan is true and they take him with the 5th pick).

What I could see as a very possible trade scenario is this:

KC gives Buffalo the 17th pick and their 3rd round pick (they have 3 or 4 3rd rounders now!) for the 11th pick, which allows them to take Harvey/Clady.

The Bills use the 17th pick to select the best CB still on their board: DRC, if he is still there; Jenkins; Talib or Cason.

The Bills, then, trade their 2nd round pick and KC's 3rd round pick to Seattle for their 1st round pick and take the best WR still on their board: Hardy; Kelly or Sweed.

The Bills then can use their own 3rd round pick to take the best TE still on their board: Bennett; Keller; Carlson or Davis (MSU).

What do you think?

Issue I have is that trade value wise it close but we are getting under valued on our 11 pick and over paying for the #25 pick. After consulting the draft pick value guide in my 2008 BZ Draft Guide (Found Here: http://www.billszone.com/drafthtml/BZDraft2008.pdf)

I see that the #11 pick is worth 1250 points and the #17 pick is worth 950 points so they would have to include a pick no lower then #60 overall to equal our value. Kansas City's top 3rd rounder is #66 which leaves them 40 points short.

To get Seattle #25 pick which is worth 720 points you propose we offer them our 2nd Rounder #41 overall worth 490 points and the #66 overall we just got from KC worth 260 points, which has use over paying the value of them by 30 points.

Now obviously this can be made a little better by getting SEA 6th 189 overall from them worth 15.8 points, and also having KC include pick 136 overall worth 38 points would also make this much better.

So your trades would be;
BUF 1st (11 overall)
for
KC 1st (17th overall), KC 3rd (66 overall), KC 5th (136 overall)

BUF 2nd (41 overall), and KC 3rd (66 overall)
for
SEA 1st (25 overall), and SEA 6th (189 overall)

Ending you with these picks;
1st-17th (From KC by way of MIN)
1st-25th (From Seattle)
3rd-72 overall
4th-114 overall
4th-132 overall (comp)
5th-136 overall (From KC)
5th-147 overall
6th-179 overall
6th-189 overall (From Seattle)
7th-219 overall
7th-224 overall (From Eagles)
7th-251 overall (comp)

I would then make the following selections;
1a-Devin Thomas WR
1b-Antoine Cason CB
3-Martin Rucker TE
4a-Antuan Molden CB
4b-Josh Johnson QB
5a-Letroy Guion DT
5b-Paul Hubbard WR
6a-Brandon Keith OT
6b-Tommy Blake DE
7a-Jerome Felton FB
7b-Anthony Adams LB
7c-Fernando Velasco OC

UDFA:
QB Kyle Spotts
RB Tim Hightower
WR Micah Rucker
WR Elfren Quiiles
WR Luke Dillon
TE Kolo Kapanai
OT Cody Baloga
OT Thaddeus Coleman
OT Nate Safe
OL David Hale
OL Demetrius Bell
OG Mike Butterworth
OG Ben Hochstein
OC Brenna Carvalho
DE Kurt Kissner
DE Derrick Grayr
DT Cory Clark
DT Jerrin James
OLB Andy Studebaker
ILB Zach East
CB Brandon Car
CB Derrick Huff
CB Brian Witherspoon
CB Marcus Brown
CB Al Phillips
FS Jermaine Moye
SS Micheal Eubanks
K Connor Barth
P Mike Dragosavich

Thoughts?

[Dr. Lecter]

I really like the idea of grabbing a LS with 251. Call me crazy, but at that point in the draft it is worth it.

[DraftBoy]

I really like the idea of grabbing a LS with 251. Call me crazy, but at that point in the draft it is worth it.

We can pick one up as UDFA just as easily if we are going to wait till 251.

[Dr. Lecter]

We can pick one up as UDFA just as easily if we are going to wait till 251.

When Dorenbos was signed, he got the biggest signing bonus of all UDFAs. It is harder to sign UDFAs than it is to draft a guy because of the open market.

[DraftBoy]

When Dorenbos was signed, he got the biggest signing bonus of all UDFAs. It is harder to sign UDFAs than it is to draft a guy because of the open market.

Yea I know but this is a year with literally no draftable LS guys. Kind of an odd year.

[Dr. Lecter]

Gotcha.

I hope the Bills can find one better than Neill.

[DraftBoy]

Gotcha.

I hope the Bills can find one better than Neill.

I agree with that.

No thoughts on my Bills mock and UDFA?

[HHURRICANE]

I don't think the Bills secondary is that weak. I hate taking a CB high. The Bills need at least 2WRs and a TE. CB should be our 4th pick.

[LifetimeBillsFan]

Issue I have is that trade value wise it close but we are getting under valued on our 11 pick and over paying for the #25 pick. After consulting the draft pick value guide in my 2008 BZ Draft Guide (Found Here: http://www.billszone.com/drafthtml/BZDraft2008.pdf)

I see that the #11 pick is worth 1250 points and the #17 pick is worth 950 points so they would have to include a pick no lower then #60 overall to equal our value. Kansas City's top 3rd rounder is #66 which leaves them 40 points short.

To get Seattle #25 pick which is worth 720 points you propose we offer them our 2nd Rounder #41 overall worth 490 points and the #66 overall we just got from KC worth 260 points, which has use over paying the value of them by 30 points.

Now obviously this can be made a little better by getting SEA 6th 189 overall from them worth 15.8 points, and also having KC include pick 136 overall worth 38 points would also make this much better.

So your trades would be;
BUF 1st (11 overall)
for
KC 1st (17th overall), KC 3rd (66 overall), KC 5th (136 overall)

BUF 2nd (41 overall), and KC 3rd (66 overall)
for
SEA 1st (25 overall), and SEA 6th (189 overall)

Ending you with these picks;
1st-17th (From KC by way of MIN)
1st-25th (From Seattle)
3rd-72 overall
4th-114 overall
4th-132 overall (comp)
5th-136 overall (From KC)
5th-147 overall
6th-179 overall
6th-189 overall (From Seattle)
7th-219 overall
7th-224 overall (From Eagles)
7th-251 overall (comp)

I would then make the following selections;
1a-Devin Thomas WR
1b-Antoine Cason CB
3-Martin Rucker TE
4a-Antuan Molden CB
4b-Josh Johnson QB
5a-Letroy Guion DT
5b-Paul Hubbard WR
6a-Brandon Keith OT
6b-Tommy Blake DE
7a-Jerome Felton FB
7b-Anthony Adams LB
7c-Fernando Velasco OC

UDFA:
QB Kyle Spotts
RB Tim Hightower
WR Micah Rucker
WR Elfren Quiiles
WR Luke Dillon
TE Kolo Kapanai
OT Cody Baloga
OT Thaddeus Coleman
OT Nate Safe
OL David Hale
OL Demetrius Bell
OG Mike Butterworth
OG Ben Hochstein
OC Brenna Carvalho
DE Kurt Kissner
DE Derrick Grayr
DT Cory Clark
DT Jerrin James
OLB Andy Studebaker
ILB Zach East
CB Brandon Car
CB Derrick Huff
CB Brian Witherspoon
CB Marcus Brown
CB Al Phillips
FS Jermaine Moye
SS Micheal Eubanks
K Connor Barth
P Mike Dragosavich

Thoughts?

Thanks for the critique, DB!

I didn't have the value charts available when I came up with the idea for these trades, but I would certainly have no problem with the changes that you made to the trades (although I'd even be willing to over-pay a bit to get the two guys at the top).

As for your draft picks, I have two issues:

Martin Rucker--Like you, I think he has the best up-side of any of the TEs in the draft. But, the lack of motivation and poor work-ethic that he showed at the Senior Bowl and The Combine really worry me. All that talent isn;t going to mean much in the NFL if he isn't willing to work hard to develop it and reach his potential. I see this as a "character" issue and would have to talk with him and see what his psych tests look like before I would take a risk this high on a guy who could be a big "boom-or-bust" pick.

There will probably be other TEs available at this spot who may not have Rucker's talent, but won't have the same questions about their motivation or work-ethic: Carlson, maybe Bennett, or Davis from MSU (even Cottam, although I'm not sold on Cottam). I'd have to be sure that Rucker wants to play and will work to improve before I pass over one of these guys for him.

Josh Johnson--I just saw him once, at the East-West Shine Game--and immediately fell in love with his game. He's got "STAR" written all over him and it sounds, from the quotes from him and M.Lynch that I read, like he has what it takes to develop his talent on the pro level.

The problem that I have with the Bills taking him (and it is one that I am SURE that they have thought about and discussed) is that he is Marshawn Lynch's cousin. Say the Bills draft him: what happens in 2-3 years T.Edwards is established as the starter and Johnson is ready to start as well? You think there was a lockerroom schism between Flutie and R.Johnson? Well, that would be a minor spat compared with what could happen if Lynch were pushing for Johnson to start and the team divided into Edwards and J.Johnson camps! What if J.Johnson beats out T.Edwards or Edwards flops or is traded and Marshawn has a contract dispute with the Bills? What happens with Marshawn if his cousin has a contract dispute with the Bills? Blood is thicker than water...especially when it comes to outsiders and money.

Since T.Donahoe left, the Bills have been very careful in bringing in players who won't create problems in the lockerroom. They have been trying to create a team that is very tight-knit. But, you know that, as cousins, Marshawn and Josh are going to want each other to succeed and will stick up for one another against management and, probably, even their teammates. Putting the two of them together would immediately be the making of a clique that could split the lockerroom at some point down the road.

Why would the Bills want to do that when they have been working so hard to avoid precisely that kind of problem?

Like I said, I love Josh Johnson as a player from what I have seen. I think he has the potential to be a tremendous NFL QB. And, if his cousin was not on the team, I would take him in a heartbeat. But, if I am running a team like the Bills, I simply could not take the risk of having the team's lockerroom fractured down the road. The damage that could be done would set back the franchise at least 5 years, if not more. Can't risk it.

[kernowboy]

No17 James Hardy WR Indiana
No41 Dre Moore DT/DE Maryland
No66 Tyvon Branch CB Connecticut
No71 John Carlson TE Notre Dame
No114 Owen Schmitt FB West Virginia
No132 Mike McGlynn OL Pittsburgh
No147 Trevor Scott DE Buffalo
No179 Andy Studebaker SLB Wheaton (DIII)
No219 Kyle Wright QB Miami
No224 Marcus Henry WR Kansas
No251 Robbie Powell C/G Purdue

* I don't think DRC will fall to No17.
* Hardy has the best and most consistent production of all the WRs.
* Stroud, McCargo, Kelsay and Denney are injury flags so DL depth is still needed.
* CB is not so urgent, we can bring in someone and have them develop.
* We don't need to give up our No2 pick.
* McGlynn can LS and did so with the Panthers.
* We have more pressing depth needs than QB in R4.
* Scott has an much upside as any middle ranked DE.
* We must grab a top FB.
* There will still be a smorgasboard of TEs available in R3.