Big colleges v Small school

[kernowboy]

In light of a number of our selections coming from small schools, I was just wondering where people stood on the issue of targeting the bigger colleges or smaller schools as a source of players?

I recall Bill Parcells once saying he had a preference from Michigan Wolverines and Penn St Nittany Lions as a source of players and would often taken a player from one of these colleges compared to a similar player from another college/school, as he felt they were more able to contribute earlier.

Whilst I appreciate, you get future stars who slip by the college recruiters, I feel there is more reliable value to be found at the bigger colleges. Surely players are much more difficult to grade in a lower level league even though they may occasionally above their level when facing a bigger college?

[The Answer]

Re: Big colleges v Small school

In light of a number of our selections coming from small schools, I was just wondering where people stood on the issue of targeting the bigger colleges or smaller schools as a source of players?

I recall Bill Parcells once saying he had a preference from Michigan Wolverines and Penn St Nittany Lions as a source of players and would often taken a player from one of these colleges compared to a similar player from another college/school, as he felt they were more able to contribute earlier.

Whilst I appreciate, you get future stars who slip by the college recruiters, I feel there is more reliable value to be found at the bigger colleges. Surely players are much more difficult to grade in a lower level league even though they may occasionally above their level when facing a bigger college?

Obviously most NFL front offices, coaching staffs, and scouting departments spend a bulk of their time looking at the big name schools and top conferences when it comes to the draft. However through the years, it's been proven that there are a lot of talented players from lesser known program, some not even in division 1A, that slip through the cracks and make it to the NFL and end up having great careers and this franchise can attest to that:

Andre Reed - Kutztown University - 4th round 1985 draft

~The Answer

[colin]

Re: Big colleges v Small school

in the big schools you get kids who would have played on and against sophisticated teams, guys who are used to huge scrutiny and pressure, and guys who (especially in big 10 programs) are used to being part of something big, established, and full of tradition. for a hard ass coach like the fat tuna, that is all up his alley.

small schools are where you find the physical freaks and gems who slip by everyone else. you get more bang for your buck going for big schools cuz you can cover more players at each school on with the same scouts, but you can fing some fighters and great height weight speed guys in smaller schools.

t davis and aneus williams are guys who i think if a pro scout really saw play they would jump all over. both are small school guys.

you also have to consider juco transfer guys, like john randle and phat pat williams. some real studs come out under the radar, not sure where you'd put the wrt big/small school

[Dozerdog]

Re: Big colleges v Small school

Bill Parcells is a guy who finds success with Veteran players. He also wants "Veteran" rookies- big program guys he doesn't have to waste time maturing. The same guys follow him from team to team. He has no patience to develop people. he has been very fortunate to wind up with teams willing to throw tons of cash to support his roster preferances.

For the most part, he builds teams quickly but they wiind up falling apart rapidly upon his exit. He signs the same guys over and over (Jason Ferguson, for example) and leaves the teams when they get close to cap hell. So teams cut his guys when he goes and they are available to start it all over again in the next city he surfaces in.

[Ingtar33]

Re: Big colleges v Small school

The Bills for years have had a big ten bias in their scouting.

so has bill polian.

a lot of scouting departments for teams are weighted toward one conference or another... and it's largely based on the personal bias of the GM, and the ability of the regional scouts to argue for their guys. If you have a few scouts who can argue for their guys, and have a track record of success, he's listened to more then the guys who've missed more often then not. or who can't argue for their "boys"

you tend to see a lot of small school prospects get drafted in a weak draft.

And no matter how we shake it, this year was a weak draft class... as the bills weren't the only team digging into d2 and d3.

when you have a weak draft, you find out how strong your scouting department is, for it's easy to hit a good draft in a strong year, no matter how bad your scouting department is.

[DraftBoy]

Re: Big colleges v Small school

Floyd Reese said something similar to what Ingtar said on ESPN radio, Saturday before the Draft. He said that as a GM you have to know your scouts bias. If they favor production over measurables, or small school over big school players, etc.

[Ingtar33]

Re: Big colleges v Small school

Floyd Reese said something similar to what Ingtar said on ESPN radio, Saturday before the Draft. He said that as a GM you have to know your scouts bias. If they favor production over measurables, or small school over big school players, etc.

yep and a good scout has to know his own bias too.

for example,

I favor playing time and production over 40times. but i also tend to devalue runningback and quarterback play on "perennially" good teams. as i tend to believe that the rest of the team raises the production of those players.

players who show up with tremendous production in small or mediocre schools, rising that school from 4-7 to 9-2 type records, often catch my eyes.

I also believe over analysis kills more drafts then anything else. I tend to try to form an opinion about a player BEFORE the combine, and then resist change to that players status irregardless what his measurables are.

This is why someone like Colt Brennan always sat high in my mind, while someone like Henne didn't.

Its also why i thought the pick of reggie bush was silly in the extreme. anyone who saw him in college could tell he was tiki barber, -40 pounds, and likely would take 4-6 years before contributing regularly in the running game.

By the same consideration, it's why i overvalue small school quarterbacks, like byron leftwich, while undervaluing big school qbs like carson palmer. (both were 3+ year starters, so i chose to believe that leftwich who did as much as palmer with less would be the better pro prospect)

every scout has a system of belief that works... and person biases, that affect their judgment.

[DraftBoy]

Re: Big colleges v Small school

So was Brennan your favorite QB in this years class? I remeber a few years back you were huge on Casey Claussen.

[Ingtar33]

Re: Big colleges v Small school

So was Brennan your favorite QB in this years class? I remember a few years back you were huge on Casey Claussen.

Brennen was one of my favorites... actually, my favorite QB this year was Brohm. while i would have drafted Brennan over Henne.

As to clausen, he was a favorite when he was a junior, he stayed for his senior year and he just never took the next step. In fact, if anything he regressed.

In his workouts he was also wildly inaccurate, and while im not a huge fan of the combine numbers, you can't ignore a series of terrible workouts (which is what i heard was Brennan's problem this off season, was a series of bad workouts)

[DraftBoy]

Re: Big colleges v Small school

Any small school guys/late rounders you really liked?

[Ingtar33]

Re: Big colleges v Small school

for the bills or the draft in general?

[Michael82]

Re: Big colleges v Small school

for the bills or the draft in general?

Both

[TigerJ]

Re: Big colleges v Small school

The ideal draft pick, I'm sure, is a super athletic guy who has a great character and outstanding production at a major college. Those guys tend to disappear pretty quickly. Then you may have to chose between a guy who played at a major school but was not as productive or is not very athletic, or you might get a guy who is very athletic and/or productive, but played at a less well known school or even a lower division like Xavier Omon. What you pick is determined by where you think the best upside and/or least risk is found.

[Ingtar33]

Re: Big colleges v Small school

Odom, Jackson and Bell, probably should have been 3rd-5th round picks... a little surprised they went in the 7th.

In 5 years we might look at the 2nd day of this draft as a pretty good day.

or we might not. this was a weak draft. in 5 years we might not see anyone from this draft still on our roster (if that's the case then the next 3 years will hurt)

[Coach Sal]

Re: Big colleges v Small school

What Parcells means isn't that those kids from smaller programs can't play, but that the ones from bigger programs can transition quicker to the NFL game because they have played against bigger, stronger, and faster competition at the college level.

I agree with that, but overall as players who will make rosters and play, these days, I don't think it matters nearly as much as it used to.

Because of satellite TV, YouTube, etc., and virtually every game being on anywhere in the country, even some of the best HS players choose to go to smaller programs and play closer to home because they know they can be seen anyway.

It's the exact same reason you see so many more upsets by smaller schools now than you used to in both football and basketball.