LifetimeBillsFan
04-30-2008, 12:45 PM
Because you never really know how a player is going to develop, I rarely make predictions about how well a player will do in the NFL (Glenn Dorsey, the last two years being an exception), but I'm going to go out on a limb and make a prediction and some comparisons about a player--and a player selected in the latter rounds of the draft at that!--who the Bills just drafted: Xavier Omon.
I just watched the YouTube video of Omon's highlights--and I strongly urge everyone to take the time to look at it (if you haven't seen it yet, the URL for it is: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tRyuegVJiUQ )--to see if it showed what I thought I saw in him when I watched the games that I saw him play in college or if, perhaps, I was wrong and was seeing something that wasn't there watching those games at real speed and being caught up in the game.
Well, it's there. In virtually every play shown on the video. Take a look at the video and make up your mind for yourself about whether I am right or wrong about this:
He's got incredibly quick feet.
And, while some may think that, being short and stocky, he is a power runner who will run through defenders (I've read suggestions here and elsewhere that he will be a short-yardage specialist), if you look at the YouTube video, you will see that the first defender never--and I mean NEVER--gets a clean hit on him.
In addition to using his quick feet, he has that ability to make that little, sudden,instinctive move with his body at the last split-second that keeps that first defender from getting enough of a piece of him to bring him down. And, he has the strength and burst to shrug off or avoid those partial tackles and run away from them.
Now I know that the defensive players in the NFL are bigger, quicker and stronger than the guys that Omon played against in D-2 and that he may not be able to run away from them the way that he ran away from the players he faced in college, but you can't teach the kind of quick moves and instinctive elusiveness that he shows in the video...and it doesn't matter how big or strong you are if the guy you are trying to hit suddenly isn't there to hit anymore.
And, look at how low to the ground he runs when he gets the ball. It is going to be hard to see him when he gets behind a big offensive line. In addition, he has such a low center of gravity that, if he does get hit cleanly, it will be like getting hit my a bowling ball.
I know he only ran a 4.5 in the 40 and most DBs and even some LBs in the NFL run faster than that, so he may not have the pure speed necessary to run away from defenders and be a "home run hitter" in the NFL--and I will admit that his lack of pure straight-ahead speed is my biggest concern about him being able to make it in the pros. But, if you look at the video, he has excellent vision and a knack for running to daylight.
(Just a note on this last point: I realize that a lot of Bills fans have fallen in love with M.Lynch's "Beast Mode" style of running after watching W.McGahee constantly running out of bounds to avoid being hit, but IMHO Lynch is a RB who "runs to contact", looking to run over or through tacklers rather than use his speed and moves to avoid clean hits, and, being a little on the smaller side for such a RB, ultimately that is going to catch up to him and prematurely shorten his effectiveness and perhaps even his career. While it is important for a RB to be tough and show that he will run through tacklers when he needs to do so, again IMHO it is better if, while being tough, he tries to "run to daylight" and has the ability to do so--which is what Omon appears to do.)
While I don't know if Omon has the pure speed to "take it to the house" on long runs in the NFL, if you look at the video (and I realize that this was a highlight tape, not game film), you see that this kid was not just a "between the tackles" battering ram that some think his stats suggest.
In the video there is a play where he breaks a run for a 99 TD: it was in a D-2 playoff game that I saw against Grand Valley St. It was late in a game where the defending champs, Grand Valley, had comeback to close within 3-4 points and just needed to hold for a series to have a chance to win: everyone in the stadium and watching on TV knew that Omon was going to get the ball on that play--in fact, everyone knew that Omon was getting the ball virtually every play in the 4th Quarter. But, as the video shows, it didn't matter: Omon, who had already broken a long TD run earlier in the game, took the first play all the way "to the house", even though with all the carries he had that day any RB would have been exhausted.
If I were a little more sure of his speed, I would predict that Omon could approach greatness on the NFL level--kind of on the level of a Leroy Kelly or Tiki Barber (but with a different running style than either)--if given the chance to catch up to the speed of the game and get playing time.
But, since I'm not that sure of his pure speed, I'm going to go this far out on a limb here and say that, if the Bills give him that chance--which may include a stint on the practice squad, at least early this season--Omon will be the kind of RB that Kenneth Davis was for the SB-era Bills and that Chester Taylor has been for the Ravens and Vikings.
With Lynch and Fred Jackson (and perhaps Wright) ahead of him on the depth chart and his size/speed limitations, I don't know if Omon will be given the shot that he needs to make it in the NFL by the Bills or any other team, but, when I was watching the YouTube video, Omon reminded me a lot of Kenny Davis. Davis was another RB who wasn't big or particularly fast, but he was incredibly valuable spelling Thurman Thomas for those great Bills teams. I can see Xavier Omon becoming the "Kenneth Davis" to Marshawn Lynch for these Bills.
If I'm not mistaken, Fred Jackson is faster than Omon. But, Jackson is a "straight-line" runner. He doesn't have the quick feet and elusive shiftiness--that ability to step away from the tackle at the last instant--that Omon shows on the video. Personally, I think there is a role for both of them on the Bills. But, I see little things from Omon in the video that you just don't see in every RB that, if he can transition those abilities to the NFL level, make me believe that Omon can, at least, become a major contributor for the Bills if they give him a chance to develop and bring his game up to the NFL level.
Of course, it will be up to Omon to do what he needs to do to take advantage of that opportunity if the Bills give it to him, but I think if does what he needs to do, he can turn out to be a real gem, at the very least as a role-player, but as a key role-player (and perhaps more), for the Bills.
PS: Another comparison, for those who remember him would be Robb Riddick, although I think Omon has the potential to be better than Riddick was.
I just watched the YouTube video of Omon's highlights--and I strongly urge everyone to take the time to look at it (if you haven't seen it yet, the URL for it is: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tRyuegVJiUQ )--to see if it showed what I thought I saw in him when I watched the games that I saw him play in college or if, perhaps, I was wrong and was seeing something that wasn't there watching those games at real speed and being caught up in the game.
Well, it's there. In virtually every play shown on the video. Take a look at the video and make up your mind for yourself about whether I am right or wrong about this:
He's got incredibly quick feet.
And, while some may think that, being short and stocky, he is a power runner who will run through defenders (I've read suggestions here and elsewhere that he will be a short-yardage specialist), if you look at the YouTube video, you will see that the first defender never--and I mean NEVER--gets a clean hit on him.
In addition to using his quick feet, he has that ability to make that little, sudden,instinctive move with his body at the last split-second that keeps that first defender from getting enough of a piece of him to bring him down. And, he has the strength and burst to shrug off or avoid those partial tackles and run away from them.
Now I know that the defensive players in the NFL are bigger, quicker and stronger than the guys that Omon played against in D-2 and that he may not be able to run away from them the way that he ran away from the players he faced in college, but you can't teach the kind of quick moves and instinctive elusiveness that he shows in the video...and it doesn't matter how big or strong you are if the guy you are trying to hit suddenly isn't there to hit anymore.
And, look at how low to the ground he runs when he gets the ball. It is going to be hard to see him when he gets behind a big offensive line. In addition, he has such a low center of gravity that, if he does get hit cleanly, it will be like getting hit my a bowling ball.
I know he only ran a 4.5 in the 40 and most DBs and even some LBs in the NFL run faster than that, so he may not have the pure speed necessary to run away from defenders and be a "home run hitter" in the NFL--and I will admit that his lack of pure straight-ahead speed is my biggest concern about him being able to make it in the pros. But, if you look at the video, he has excellent vision and a knack for running to daylight.
(Just a note on this last point: I realize that a lot of Bills fans have fallen in love with M.Lynch's "Beast Mode" style of running after watching W.McGahee constantly running out of bounds to avoid being hit, but IMHO Lynch is a RB who "runs to contact", looking to run over or through tacklers rather than use his speed and moves to avoid clean hits, and, being a little on the smaller side for such a RB, ultimately that is going to catch up to him and prematurely shorten his effectiveness and perhaps even his career. While it is important for a RB to be tough and show that he will run through tacklers when he needs to do so, again IMHO it is better if, while being tough, he tries to "run to daylight" and has the ability to do so--which is what Omon appears to do.)
While I don't know if Omon has the pure speed to "take it to the house" on long runs in the NFL, if you look at the video (and I realize that this was a highlight tape, not game film), you see that this kid was not just a "between the tackles" battering ram that some think his stats suggest.
In the video there is a play where he breaks a run for a 99 TD: it was in a D-2 playoff game that I saw against Grand Valley St. It was late in a game where the defending champs, Grand Valley, had comeback to close within 3-4 points and just needed to hold for a series to have a chance to win: everyone in the stadium and watching on TV knew that Omon was going to get the ball on that play--in fact, everyone knew that Omon was getting the ball virtually every play in the 4th Quarter. But, as the video shows, it didn't matter: Omon, who had already broken a long TD run earlier in the game, took the first play all the way "to the house", even though with all the carries he had that day any RB would have been exhausted.
If I were a little more sure of his speed, I would predict that Omon could approach greatness on the NFL level--kind of on the level of a Leroy Kelly or Tiki Barber (but with a different running style than either)--if given the chance to catch up to the speed of the game and get playing time.
But, since I'm not that sure of his pure speed, I'm going to go this far out on a limb here and say that, if the Bills give him that chance--which may include a stint on the practice squad, at least early this season--Omon will be the kind of RB that Kenneth Davis was for the SB-era Bills and that Chester Taylor has been for the Ravens and Vikings.
With Lynch and Fred Jackson (and perhaps Wright) ahead of him on the depth chart and his size/speed limitations, I don't know if Omon will be given the shot that he needs to make it in the NFL by the Bills or any other team, but, when I was watching the YouTube video, Omon reminded me a lot of Kenny Davis. Davis was another RB who wasn't big or particularly fast, but he was incredibly valuable spelling Thurman Thomas for those great Bills teams. I can see Xavier Omon becoming the "Kenneth Davis" to Marshawn Lynch for these Bills.
If I'm not mistaken, Fred Jackson is faster than Omon. But, Jackson is a "straight-line" runner. He doesn't have the quick feet and elusive shiftiness--that ability to step away from the tackle at the last instant--that Omon shows on the video. Personally, I think there is a role for both of them on the Bills. But, I see little things from Omon in the video that you just don't see in every RB that, if he can transition those abilities to the NFL level, make me believe that Omon can, at least, become a major contributor for the Bills if they give him a chance to develop and bring his game up to the NFL level.
Of course, it will be up to Omon to do what he needs to do to take advantage of that opportunity if the Bills give it to him, but I think if does what he needs to do, he can turn out to be a real gem, at the very least as a role-player, but as a key role-player (and perhaps more), for the Bills.
PS: Another comparison, for those who remember him would be Robb Riddick, although I think Omon has the potential to be better than Riddick was.