In the end, it's about the QB

[ghz in pittsburgh]

Looking back I think many people like me realized the JP Losman's failure in the 2007 season is probably the biggest reason the Bills didn't improve their record. How many of us expected JP to finally arrived in 2007 and get into the top QB ranks in NFL based on his 2006 season?

It just didn't happen.

So now looking into the 2008 season, we are, sadly, staring at the same question as we had in 2007: Edwards' season says a lot about the Bills season in 2008.

But there are differences. No matter what your opinions about Edwards and Losman, this is almost a guarantee: Edwards will be better in his second year. Look around in NFL, almost all rookie QBs getting better, even Vince Young had better completion ratios. Losman, himself is better from 2004 to 2005 and if that's not satifactory to people, from 2005 to 2006.

Getting better in the 2nd year does not mean a star is born. NFL is a cruel business. People get paid to study you and to stop you. A lot of people fizzle under that circumstance. Those continue to improve become true NFL QBs.

But in the 2nd year, it's more of a you adjust to the league than the league adjust to you. That's why so many improved in their 2nd year. Consider Edwards situation last year - in camp he had to share reps with a 2nd Stringer which was way behind Losman's already. He got almost no time to get used to Evans and other starting players. The playbook was new to him. He got no NFL off-season conditioning. It's hard to imagine he wouldn't get better now that he's established as the clear cut starter.

True, opponents have tapes on him now. But I believe it's more of a case that he has the real sense, mental tape of how teams in NFL play. In other words, he has not shown his true playing form - a form that he's comfortable at.

That's why I feel the Bills have a good chance of improving this year. Based on their 7-9 showing last year, it does not take much to be a realistic playoff contender.

But that does not mean Edwards is the franchise QB. For that I need to see his 2009 season.

[Philagape]

Re: In the end, it's about the QB

Great post.

I'm not sure how much defenses can gain by studying films of Edwards. His strengths are things that are hard to counter: accuracy*, field vision, quick reads, feeling the rush. He can make a variety of throws and roll out, so it's not like he can be pigeonholed. Good execution beats good defense.

Plus, you can pretty much throw out last year's tapes. We have a new OC and a new WR who brings a whole new dimension. And like you said, the transition from first year to second is a big one, so teams will have to figure him out all over again.




*his completion % outside the impossible-weather games was 62.8, which is extremely good for a rookie.

[Oaf]

Re: In the end, it's about the QB

I think that Edwards will turn it up to the next level, but Lynch will taper down a bit, slightly reducing his effectiveness relative to last year. However, I do think Lynch will double his catches so maybe that'll make up for it.

[DrGraves]

Re: In the end, it's about the QB

I think that Edwards will turn it up to the next level, but Lynch will taper down a bit, slightly reducing his effectiveness relative to last year. However, I do think Lynch will double his catches so maybe that'll make up for it.

I agree that lynch may cool down a little bit, but with a better passing attack lynch could be even more productive in the run game!

Not to forget freddy jackson!

[PECKERWOOD]

Re: In the end, it's about the QB

Trent needs to start making bigger plays. There is no question that he has the potential to be a solid game manager but he needs to prove that he can be a playmaker as well. Dinking and dunking can only get you so far, I want to see Trent make some difficult throws. Not only that but he needs to stay healthy. I think we will be able to tell if Trent is the future here or not by the end of next year. If Trent can stay healthy, make solid decisions and complete the difficult passes then we have a legitimate shot at the playoffs.

[Johnny Bugmenot]

Re: In the end, it's about the QB

We saw flashes of it in the Baltimore game, Trent has the capability to throw the long ball. However, he hasn't yet used it.

He also has to improve his play in the snow.

[jamze132]

Re: In the end, it's about the QB

Trent needs to start making bigger plays. There is no question that he has the potential to be a solid game manager but he needs to prove that he can be a playmaker as well. Dinking and dunking can only get you so far, I want to see Trent make some difficult throws. Not only that but he needs to stay healthy. I think we will be able to tell if Trent is the future here or not by the end of next year. If Trent can stay healthy, make solid decisions and complete the difficult passes then we have a legitimate shot at the playoffs.

Dink and dunk can get you far if we dink and dunk to the Lynch and Jackson, not Gaines and Royal.

[YardRat]

Re: In the end, it's about the QB

I hope he and the rest of the offense start off the season better than they have the last few years. Lately, the first few games have been almost painful to watch.

[Historian]

Re: In the end, it's about the QB

Oh please!

He was chuckin the pig all over the place against Dallas.

[Night Train]

Re: In the end, it's about the QB

So in the end, it's actually about the playcalling of the Turk.

[acehole]

Re: In the end, it's about the QB

I respectfully disagree.

Defense wins championships and we had among the worst in the NFL in 2006-2007 in both the run and the pass. On offense we had one playmaker in the passing attack worth note. On Paper we have improved that deffense with run stuffers both on the deffensive line and LB ing. We have also improved the secondary through free agency and the draft. We also will be getting many players back from injury on the deffensive side of the ball which should translate into an improved deffense. Which should translate into wins.

On the offensive side of the ball we have lost Fairchild, With his lack of imagination, no playaction worth anything, no audables and predictability opposing deffenses simply doubled Lee and put 8 in the box to stop the run and short passing game. I was clammoring since 2006 for a #2 Wr and TE worth a Dam to take pressure off of Lee and the qb position to open things up and it looks like we have that now in Hardy. A TE will have to arise from the bunch we have here. So again we can blame JP for the worst run deffense in the NFL and 29th in passing....we can also ignore Trent was statistically at the the bottom in all catagories on offense in 2007. This won't change the truth. Trent now has what JP never did...a team with few holes. It is the perfect situation for Trent (Or JP) and one that is vital for a qb to do well in. A good deffense and multiple weapons on offense including a running game and oline to protect him and a year in a system designed around high percentage passes. Eli,Rivers and Cutler all had the above to help them develop and it is the right model for bringing a qb along. I am hopful for the next season. On paper the Bills have this now including a weaker schedule. I really think we can make some noise this year.

All eyes will be on Trent to improve...and with no major holes, excuses will be hard to find. When you look at it another way Trent was at the bottom of the league in multiple offensive catagories...so there really is nowhere to go but up. It is not like you are going out on a limb here with your post with that piont.

Looking back I think many people like me realized the JP Losman's failure in the 2007 season is probably the biggest reason the Bills didn't improve their record. How many of us expected JP to finally arrived in 2007 and get into the top QB ranks in NFL based on his 2006 season?

It just didn't happen.

So now looking into the 2008 season, we are, sadly, staring at the same question as we had in 2007: Edwards' season says a lot about the Bills season in 2008.

But there are differences. No matter what your opinions about Edwards and Losman, this is almost a guarantee: Edwards will be better in his second year. Look around in NFL, almost all rookie QBs getting better, even Vince Young had better completion ratios. Losman, himself is better from 2004 to 2005 and if that's not satifactory to people, from 2005 to 2006.

Getting better in the 2nd year does not mean a star is born. NFL is a cruel business. People get paid to study you and to stop you. A lot of people fizzle under that circumstance. Those continue to improve become true NFL QBs.

But in the 2nd year, it's more of a you adjust to the league than the league adjust to you. That's why so many improved in their 2nd year. Consider Edwards situation last year - in camp he had to share reps with a 2nd Stringer which was way behind Losman's already. He got almost no time to get used to Evans and other starting players. The playbook was new to him. He got no NFL off-season conditioning. It's hard to imagine he wouldn't get better now that he's established as the clear cut starter.

True, opponents have tapes on him now. But I believe it's more of a case that he has the real sense, mental tape of how teams in NFL play. In other words, he has not shown his true playing form - a form that he's comfortable at.

That's why I feel the Bills have a good chance of improving this year. Based on their 7-9 showing last year, it does not take much to be a realistic playoff contender.

But that does not mean Edwards is the franchise QB. For that I need to see his 2009 season.

[acehole]

Re: In the end, it's about the QB

We saw flashes of it in the Baltimore game, Trent has the capability to throw the long ball. However, he hasn't yet used it.

He also has to improve his play in the snow.

Yes I saw him throw a long one...the problem is statically that is where most of his pick offs come from. He can do it...just not very well.

[acehole]

Re: In the end, it's about the QB

Yes defensive coodinaters will be stumped be the infamous Trent Edwards
QB Rating 29th T. Edwards 70.4
Yards per attempt 31th T. Edwards 6.06
Completion % 30 T. Edwards 56.1
Touchdown % 28 T. Edwards 2.6

I love when people create thier own reality.

Great post.

I'm not sure how much defenses can gain by studying films of Edwards. His strengths are things that are hard to counter: accuracy*, field vision, quick reads, feeling the rush. He can make a variety of throws and roll out, so it's not like he can be pigeonholed. Good execution beats good defense.

Plus, you can pretty much throw out last year's tapes. We have a new OC and a new WR who brings a whole new dimension. And like you said, the transition from first year to second is a big one, so teams will have to figure him out all over again.




*his completion % outside the impossible-weather games was 62.8, which is extremely good for a rookie.

[TacklingDummy]

Re: In the end, it's about the QB

Yes I saw him throw a long one...the problem is statically that is where most of his pick offs come from. He can do it...just not very well.

6 of Trents 8 interceptions came on passes that were less than 20 yards.

Passes thrown over 20 yards...

TE: 6 of 23, 154 yards, 2 TDs, 2 Ints. Lee not fighting for ball in endzone led to Int.

JP: 5 of 21, 214 yards, 2 TDs, 2 Ints. Lee Evans 85 yard gift included.

Not much of a difference.

[TacklingDummy]

Re: In the end, it's about the QB

I love when people create thier own reality.

Agreed.

The JP faithful are good at it.