Tweet
Forked from: Expectations for Hardy....
While I agree OP that one 2nd rounder in Hardy and two backup TEs (backups from OAKLAND.) will improve the 2nd worst offense far past 25, lets look at it this way.
Lets nix ALL percieved improvement from Lynch, Edwards, McCargo, Whitner, and other 1st, 2nd, 3rd year players. As you said anyways, that sophmore season can just as easily be worse than better (I personally predict a better year for TE and slightly worse for Lynch). So we finished at 7-9. Yes, four was vs Fins and Jets, but we still play em 4 times this year too. Now did we lose any talents? No. So if ceteris peribus holds, we finish 7-9 again and that's assuming we sustain all those injuries again.
Now add in additions Viti at FB, Hardy at #2 WR, Fine at #2 TE, Kawiki at WLB, Ellis as rotational DE, Johnson at worst a Larry Tripplett, former PBer Marcus Stroud at DT, McKelvin at CB. Then add Poz at MLB and Ko at FS. Then add in Colorado's addition of Fairchild. So even if degression cancels out our young players' progression, those additions should be enough to give us 2 or 3 additional wins. Therefore, even if our offense is still below average, and I think we will be, we still stand in good position for a playoff berth.
Originally posted by OpIv37
Check out this article that was linked on the BZ homepage:
I didn't see a thread about it, so if this is a duplicate, I apologize.
Long story short: he broke down the production of the top few receivers in each of the last 5 draft classes. There were a few exceptions like Fitzgerald, but for the most part, receivers in their first year were not very successful. The author seems to think the Bills can get 4-6 TD's out of him.
This goes along with what I've been saying about our chances for this season. We simply didn't do enough with the offense. I like the Hardy pick, but the most likely outcome is that he'll produce 3-6 TD's in his first year because that's typical of receivers in their first season. The FO put him in the unfortunate position of being the only major addition to the 30th ranked offense.
I know some people have high hopes about Edwards and Lynch because it's their sophomore season and somehow it's become the conventional wisdom around here that players improve the most between Year 1 and Year 2. But that's not really the case. To take some recent examples, Lee Evans, John McCargo and Terrance McGee definitely improved in their second year. Keith Ellison, Kyle Williams, Donte Whitner and Ko Simpson definitely did not (although Ko gets a pass due to injury). In reality, some players develop in their second year and some players hit a sophomore slump. We won't know which one it will be for Lynch and Edwards until they hit the field.
On paper, the D is a lot better, so it's a shame that we're relying on improvement from 2nd year players (which worked so well last year
) and a rookie WR to fix the O. I expect a lot of low scoring games with more 7 minute 4th quarter drives by our opponents, just like last year.
I didn't see a thread about it, so if this is a duplicate, I apologize.
Long story short: he broke down the production of the top few receivers in each of the last 5 draft classes. There were a few exceptions like Fitzgerald, but for the most part, receivers in their first year were not very successful. The author seems to think the Bills can get 4-6 TD's out of him.
This goes along with what I've been saying about our chances for this season. We simply didn't do enough with the offense. I like the Hardy pick, but the most likely outcome is that he'll produce 3-6 TD's in his first year because that's typical of receivers in their first season. The FO put him in the unfortunate position of being the only major addition to the 30th ranked offense.
I know some people have high hopes about Edwards and Lynch because it's their sophomore season and somehow it's become the conventional wisdom around here that players improve the most between Year 1 and Year 2. But that's not really the case. To take some recent examples, Lee Evans, John McCargo and Terrance McGee definitely improved in their second year. Keith Ellison, Kyle Williams, Donte Whitner and Ko Simpson definitely did not (although Ko gets a pass due to injury). In reality, some players develop in their second year and some players hit a sophomore slump. We won't know which one it will be for Lynch and Edwards until they hit the field.
On paper, the D is a lot better, so it's a shame that we're relying on improvement from 2nd year players (which worked so well last year
) and a rookie WR to fix the O. I expect a lot of low scoring games with more 7 minute 4th quarter drives by our opponents, just like last year.While I agree OP that one 2nd rounder in Hardy and two backup TEs (backups from OAKLAND.) will improve the 2nd worst offense far past 25, lets look at it this way.
Lets nix ALL percieved improvement from Lynch, Edwards, McCargo, Whitner, and other 1st, 2nd, 3rd year players. As you said anyways, that sophmore season can just as easily be worse than better (I personally predict a better year for TE and slightly worse for Lynch). So we finished at 7-9. Yes, four was vs Fins and Jets, but we still play em 4 times this year too. Now did we lose any talents? No. So if ceteris peribus holds, we finish 7-9 again and that's assuming we sustain all those injuries again.
Now add in additions Viti at FB, Hardy at #2 WR, Fine at #2 TE, Kawiki at WLB, Ellis as rotational DE, Johnson at worst a Larry Tripplett, former PBer Marcus Stroud at DT, McKelvin at CB. Then add Poz at MLB and Ko at FS. Then add in Colorado's addition of Fairchild. So even if degression cancels out our young players' progression, those additions should be enough to give us 2 or 3 additional wins. Therefore, even if our offense is still below average, and I think we will be, we still stand in good position for a playoff berth.
Comment