Go Trent!

[Yasgur's Farm]

BUT... We gotta look at reallity!

JP has never, ever had a win where he hasn't guided the O to at least 1 TD... Trent's had 2 in just 5 wins (40%) (Including Jets II).

JP has averaged 2.1 O TD's in his wins as a starter... Trent averages 1.2 as a starting wins (Once again... including Jets II).

JP has failed to lead the O to a TD in 7 of his 31 starts (22.58%) ... Trent's failed to lead the O to a TD in 5 of his 9 starts (an astounding 55.56%).

Now, JP may not be the next coming of Jim Kelly... But where does that leave Trent?

You really should consider these stats in an attempt to evaluate our QB situation.

Will anybody here be disappointed if Trent fails to reach JP's 2006 season in 2008?

[feelthepain]

BUT... We gotta look at reallity!

JP has never, ever had a win where he hasn't guided the O to at least 1 TD... Trent's had 2 in just 5 wins (40%) (Including Jets II).

JP has averaged 2.1 O TD's in his wins as a starter... Trent averages 1.2 as a starting wins (Once again... including Jets II).

JP has failed to lead the O to a TD in 7 of his 31 starts (22.58%) ... Trent's failed to lead the O to a TD in 5 of his 9 starts (an astounding 55.56%).

Now, JP may not be the next coming of Jim Kelly... But where does that leave Trent?

You really should consider these stats in an attempt to evaluate our QB situation.

Will anybody here be disappointed if Trent fails to reach JP's 2006 season in 2008?

Well all that was all Fairchilds fault...or someones fault, but not anyones fault currently on the Bills roster, so he's good!!

[Yasgur's Farm]

Not sure who you mean FTP... Who's good?

[DrGraves]

no playoffs = disappointment

regardless of who is under center!

[Philagape]

Now, JP may not be the next coming of Jim Kelly... But where does that leave Trent?

You really should consider these stats in an attempt to evaluate our QB situation.

No, we really shouldn't. A rookie QB's numbers are irrelevant.

[FlyingDutchman]

We definately struggled to score, but I feel like Trent just managed the game better. TE seemed to be able to move the chains. Granted it didnt result in points a whole lot, but we played a better field position game and were able to give our D a rest for once. JP was all or nothing. He didnt seem like he was capable of executing simple plays on a consistat basis. He had some great pinpoint throws at times, but also would throw at receivers feet on simple 5 yard crossing routes.

[YardRat]

Edwards = starter.
JP = back-up.

Barring injury or major meltdown that's the way it's going to be. Get over it.

[Philagape]

Also, what's the point of pointing out JP's stats in wins when's he's had so many more losses? When the win/loss ratio is as lopsided as JP's, I would think his stats in losses are more relevant because they take up much more of his career.
Takes real creepy, irrational bias to make that much of a leap and go combing that far for numbers. Say, what are the lengths of their passes in the third quarter of every fourth game on the road? JP may have him beat there too!

[jmb1099]

BUT... We gotta look at reallity!

JP has never, ever had a win where he hasn't guided the O to at least 1 TD... Trent's had 2 in just 5 wins (40%) (Including Jets II).

JP has averaged 2.1 O TD's in his wins as a starter... Trent averages 1.2 as a starting wins (Once again... including Jets II).

JP has failed to lead the O to a TD in 7 of his 31 starts (22.58%) ... Trent's failed to lead the O to a TD in 5 of his 9 starts (an astounding 55.56%).

Now, JP may not be the next coming of Jim Kelly... But where does that leave Trent?

You really should consider these stats in an attempt to evaluate our QB situation.

Will anybody here be disappointed if Trent fails to reach JP's 2006 season in 2008?
I am so mad at Edwards rookie year performance. He should have thrown for 100,000 yards ,470 touchdowns, and -5 interceptions. He also should have led the league in rushing. Not just Qb's, the entire league. The fact that he rushed for less than 10,000 yards is proof that he sucks. For that matter he should be returning kicks and punts. Man the more I think about it the more this guy just ticks me off. Cut him already. He had a chance a blew it. Time to move on. Take out the trash. Sign Brady Quinn.

[The Answer]

Also, what's the point of pointing out JP's stats in wins when's he's had so many more losses? When the win/loss ratio is as lopsided as JP's, I would think his stats in losses are more relevant because they take up much more of his career.
Takes real creepy, irrational bias to make that much of a leap and go combing that far for numbers. Say, what are the lengths of their passes in the third quarter of every fourth game on the road? JP may have him beat there too!

The statboys and JP fans love to throw out numbers, but never have a response to these facts:

As a pure rookie, it took Trent 6 games to get 5 wins

Yet it took Losman 2 1/2 seasons to get the same amount of wins? Why is this JP fans?

It took Trent 6 games to get 2 wins against teams .500 or better, and JP 20 games to get 1 win against teams .500 or better.

Also even if you throw out 2004 season in which JP was injured half the year and on the bench - Losman was 1-7 as a starter during 2005 when he was handed the job. Trent was 5-4 as a true rookie when handed the job?

Again PLEASE explain the reason for this? And don't tell me it was because of play calling because ironically Mularkeys teams were better than fairchilds in terms of overall offense rankings. And don't tell me that Trent had better weapons because that's incorrect as well.

~The Answer

[SeatownBillsFan21]

no playoffs = disappointment

regardless of who is under center!
Are you kidding me? a winning record would be awesome IMO 9-7 wont make the playoff but that still would be a good start for this team.

[djjimkelly]

in my late night drukeness ill throw this out TRENT SUCKS.

hes the hope that many bills fans want because they actually think we have a chance.

he blows there u go

neg away he will be benched at some point this season and like ive said before most on here will be cursing him away. the same people who are praising him now.

honestly neither qb sucks this coaching staff sucks. and we will never win with them

[LifetimeBillsFan]

To just look at how they performed in the games you cited is a specious argument because at times you are comparing apples to oranges.

And, since we are talking about the NFL, not fantasy football, it must also be noted that stats do not always tell the full story. Or, as one person put it, "There are lies, damned lies and, then, there are statistics!" And, statistics can be made to say almost anything that you want them to say.

If you go back and look, you will see that I had very high hopes for JP Losman and was not at all thrilled when the Bills used a third round pick to select Edwards. But, it doesn't take a genius to see the two of them on the field--to compare them at the same time in their careers--to conclude that Edwards has a better command of position at the same stage in their careers. Regardless of whatever the statistics say, Edwards was better able to move the ball, move the chains, consistently between the 20 yard lines as a rookie than Losman at any stage in his career.

What Edwards was not able to do--and must learn to do--was to finish drives by consistently getting the tough yards inside the red zone. Losman wasn't able to do that very well either, but he benefitted from being able to get more TDs on plays from outside of the 20 yard red zone area than Edwards.

Edwards can learn to overcome his shortcomings in the red zone with experience and, now also, the addition of James Hardy. Losman never has proven that he can consistently move the chains or put the ball in the end zone from inside the red zone despite having more experience than Edwards. Now, that's not to say that either or both of them will or won't learn how to stick the ball in the end zone when the team is inside the red zone. But, Edwards, being younger and having proved to be more effective in moving the chains does have a greater potential to learn to do this at this stage.

If you wanted to do a comparison, why not compare how many 3-and-outs each QB had in his first nine games? We've heard a lot over the last five years about how important it is for the offense to control the ball and give the defense time to rest, if that is the case, then a QB being able to avoid going 3-and-out is helping both the offense and the defense. Multiple play drives (6 or more) would also be a valuable statistic to compare as well.

For a rookie, Edwards passed the "eyeball" test. Obviously, he still has a long way to go to fully develop his potential, but that's to be expected: P.Manning threw more INTs than TDs as a rookie, J.Elway got pulled from the lineup as a rookie, T.Brady barely saw the field as a rookie, etc. And, the odds are that he is still going to have some bad games before "the light bulb goes on" for him (Brady and P.Manning still have the occasional bad game, too--it happens to even the best of them). So, we're just going to wait and see what happens.

But, watching Edwards, you see a guy with poise who isn't constantly making the same mistakes over and over again, even though he was just a rookie. That has to lead one to conclude that he has a chance to continue to improve with experience. Now, there is no guarantee that that will happen. But, he has shown enough signs to lead one to believe that it will. And, that is why he will be the starting QB for the Bills going into this season.

[YardRat]

Amen.

[The last buffalo fan]

To just look at how they performed in the games you cited is a specious argument because at times you are comparing apples to oranges.

And, since we are talking about the NFL, not fantasy football, it must also be noted that stats do not always tell the full story. Or, as one person put it, "There are lies, damned lies and, then, there are statistics!" And, statistics can be made to say almost anything that you want them to say.

If you go back and look, you will see that I had very high hopes for JP Losman and was not at all thrilled when the Bills used a third round pick to select Edwards. But, it doesn't take a genius to see the two of them on the field--to compare them at the same time in their careers--to conclude that Edwards has a better command of position at the same stage in their careers. Regardless of whatever the statistics say, Edwards was better able to move the ball, move the chains, consistently between the 20 yard lines as a rookie than Losman at any stage in his career.

What Edwards was not able to do--and must learn to do--was to finish drives by consistently getting the tough yards inside the red zone. Losman wasn't able to do that very well either, but he benefitted from being able to get more TDs on plays from outside of the 20 yard red zone area than Edwards.

Edwards can learn to overcome his shortcomings in the red zone with experience and, now also, the addition of James Hardy. Losman never has proven that he can consistently move the chains or put the ball in the end zone from inside the red zone despite having more experience than Edwards. Now, that's not to say that either or both of them will or won't learn how to stick the ball in the end zone when the team is inside the red zone. But, Edwards, being younger and having proved to be more effective in moving the chains does have a greater potential to learn to do this at this stage.

If you wanted to do a comparison, why not compare how many 3-and-outs each QB had in his first nine games? We've heard a lot over the last five years about how important it is for the offense to control the ball and give the defense time to rest, if that is the case, then a QB being able to avoid going 3-and-out is helping both the offense and the defense. Multiple play drives (6 or more) would also be a valuable statistic to compare as well.

For a rookie, Edwards passed the "eyeball" test. Obviously, he still has a long way to go to fully develop his potential, but that's to be expected: P.Manning threw more INTs than TDs as a rookie, J.Elway got pulled from the lineup as a rookie, T.Brady barely saw the field as a rookie, etc. And, the odds are that he is still going to have some bad games before "the light bulb goes on" for him (Brady and P.Manning still have the occasional bad game, too--it happens to even the best of them). So, we're just going to wait and see what happens.

But, watching Edwards, you see a guy with poise who isn't constantly making the same mistakes over and over again, even though he was just a rookie. That has to lead one to conclude that he has a chance to continue to improve with experience. Now, there is no guarantee that that will happen. But, he has shown enough signs to lead one to believe that it will. And, that is why he will be the starting QB for the Bills going into this season.

Gracias, it was a great post! :bf1:

Once again, I'm not an anti TE, and I do root for JP too, but I just want to win games, I want to have a winning season and a trip to the Po's. But clearly and at this time, TE give us the best chance for it.

[HHURRICANE]

BUT... We gotta look at reallity!

JP has never, ever had a win where he hasn't guided the O to at least 1 TD... Trent's had 2 in just 5 wins (40%) (Including Jets II).

JP has averaged 2.1 O TD's in his wins as a starter... Trent averages 1.2 as a starting wins (Once again... including Jets II).

JP has failed to lead the O to a TD in 7 of his 31 starts (22.58%) ... Trent's failed to lead the O to a TD in 5 of his 9 starts (an astounding 55.56%).

Now, JP may not be the next coming of Jim Kelly... But where does that leave Trent?

You really should consider these stats in an attempt to evaluate our QB situation.

Will anybody here be disappointed if Trent fails to reach JP's 2006 season in 2008?

Hmmm. Based on this we should start JP. You've convinced me that the stats are much more important than how they actually played on the field.

For a while there I thought Trent was a rookie who played very well, for a rookie.

Now I realize that he sucks. Go JP!!!!

[djjimkelly]

If you go back and look, you will see that I had very high hopes for JP Losman and was not at all thrilled when the Bills used a third round pick to select Edwards. But, it doesn't take a genius to see the two of them on the field--to compare them at the same time in their careers--to conclude that Edwards has a better command of position at the same stage in their careers. Regardless of whatever the statistics say, Edwards was better able to move the ball, move the chains, consistently between the 20 yard lines as a rookie than Losman at any stage in his career.




sorry LBF i dont see what your seeing and i know my football. i see a guy with edwards that is incapable of making any game changing plays. and with losman i see a high risk high reward.

now i will get ripped for this analogy i will make.

but ill take my chances on the guy whos great upside is a john elway type and yes please curse away.

then take my chances on a guy who is a brian griese brad johnson type.

regardless both these qbs have been saddle with OC that would run on first down for no gain the run on 2nd down for no gain then expect a miracle on 3rd and 7.

i personally hope that somehow in 2009 it all gets blown up just in coaching and qb aspects. where we get a proven vet qb no idea who would be free and a real HC. with what we already have.

sadly i dont think either of them has the coaching tools to succeed in buffalo.

[Novacane]

but ill take my chances on the guy whos great upside is a john elway type and yes please curse away.

\.



You have got to be kidding. Just when I think you can't top yourself we get this. You may be right about Trent sucking. We'll know soon. Comparing JP to Elway though???? Any good arguement you may make for JP goes unread after that insane statement :rolleyes:

[The Answer]

sorry LBF i dont see what your seeing and i know my football. i see a guy with edwards that is incapable of making any game changing plays. and with losman i see a high risk high reward.

now i will get ripped for this analogy i will make.

but ill take my chances on the guy whos great upside is a john elway type and yes please curse away.

then take my chances on a guy who is a brian griese brad johnson type.

regardless both these qbs have been saddle with OC that would run on first down for no gain the run on 2nd down for no gain then expect a miracle on 3rd and 7.

i personally hope that somehow in 2009 it all gets blown up just in coaching and qb aspects. where we get a proven vet qb no idea who would be free and a real HC. with what we already have.

sadly i dont think either of them has the coaching tools to succeed in buffalo.

Your almost right here - Trent has Elway type of ability and we saw flashes of that last year when he led us to some late game winning drives in the 4th quarter.

However your being generous with the Griese/Johnson comparison for Losman because one of those QB's has led a team to a superbowl victory.

A more accurate comarison for JP would be Akili Smith/Cade McNown - overrated coming out of college, a complete bust in the NFL, and out of the league within 5 years.

~The Answer

[LifetimeBillsFan]

sorry LBF i dont see what your seeing and i know my football. i see a guy with edwards that is incapable of making any game changing plays. and with losman i see a high risk high reward.

now i will get ripped for this analogy i will make.

but ill take my chances on the guy whos great upside is a john elway type and yes please curse away.

then take my chances on a guy who is a brian griese brad johnson type.

regardless both these qbs have been saddle with OC that would run on first down for no gain the run on 2nd down for no gain then expect a miracle on 3rd and 7.

i personally hope that somehow in 2009 it all gets blown up just in coaching and qb aspects. where we get a proven vet qb no idea who would be free and a real HC. with what we already have.

sadly i dont think either of them has the coaching tools to succeed in buffalo.

I understand your "high risk-high reward" view of Losman and actually shared that view in the hopes that Losman would develop into the B.Favre-type QB that he was projected to be coming out of college. But, what I have seen in Losman is a guy who still hasn't figured out how to do some of the simple things that a QB has to be able to do in order to be successful in the NFL.

I'll give you an example that I'm sure that you are aware of: look at JP's footwork when he tries to throw the ball short: a short out or a pass into the flat to a WR or RB. After 4 years in the NFL, his footwork is still inconsistent and fouled up--which is why a lot of those throws either go too high or too low.

Those throws are key to an offense being able to move the chains efficiently and, after four years in the NFL, a NFL-caliber starting QB has to be expected to get the ball into the receiver's hands in a position where the receiver can make a play at least two-thirds of the time (80% would be more what a quality QB should be able to do). But, because JP doesn't consistently get his feet set properly, he can't do that.

Let's look at the fact that the Bills' QBs have not been allowed to call audibles--something that you don't have to know that much about the game to realize had to drastically limit their effectiveness and the ability of the offense to function well:

We all want to blame S.Fairchild for this, assuming that he was an absolute idiot. Now, I'm not going to defend Fairchild or say that this was a good decision. But, before we continue to flay Fairchild, let's ask ourselves if there was perhaps a reason why he chose not to let his QBs call audibles. Certainly with a rookie starting QB such a limitation might be understandable. But, the Bills didn't go into last season with a rookie starting QB--they installed their offense in the OTAs and went into the season with JP Losman, a third year QB, as their starting QB. And, still Fairchild wouldn't let his starting QB call audibles. Why?

Well, one answer could be that Fairchild was an unconscionable idiot--which may well be true. But, another possible explanation could also be that Fairchild (and likely Jauron and perhaps Schonert) didn't think that JP Losman was capable of dealing with calling audibles without the rest of his game suffering. Given the fact that, this year, Schonert is installing an audible system into the offense and giving Edwards some freedom to call audibles, that is something to consider as being an equally plausible explanation for Fairchild's decision.

Now consider something that Edwards just said in his meeting with the press following the first week of OTAs: Schonert wants Edwards to try changing the progression of his reads on certain pass play calls depending on the look that the defense gives him.

Sounds logical. Sounds like something that could improve the offense.

So, why hasn't it been done before? And, why are they doing it now with Edwards as the starting QB?

Again, the answer could be that Fairchild was a blithering idiot and Schonert, having been a NFL QB (Fairchild was only a starting QB in college), is smarter than Fairchild. Or, the answer could be that Schonert trusts Edwards to be mentally capable of handling this and Fairchild didn't trust JP Losman to be able to do it. Given Edwards' poise on the field and Losman's well-known tendency to be highly emotional on the field, which is the more likely?

Now, I'm not saying that Losman might not eventually "get it" and become another Jim Plunkett or Steve Young (if you saw S.Young in Tampa Bay, you know what I mean). It's possible and JP certainly has the physical tools to become that kind of player.

But, that doesn't help the Buffalo Bills win games right now.

Edwards, on the other hand, won more games as a rookie starting QB than any Bills rookie starting QB since Joe Ferguson. He showed poise and the ability to move the chains with some consistency, even though he did very badly in the red zone.

The coaching staff feels that Edwards is not only capable of calling audibles this season, but, as aforementioned, Schonert wants him to adjust his progressions based on the look that the defense gives him.

What does that tell you?

It tells me that Schonert is a lot more confident in Edwards' mental capacity and poise under pressure than Fairchild was in Losman. It tells me that the Bills' coaching staff is willing to put a lot more options in Edwards' hands because they have more confidence in his decision-making than they were in Losman's decision-making.

You compared Edwards to B.Griese and B.Johnson. It is possible that Edwards may end up being no better than Griese or Johnson--but remember that both Johnson and Griese (let's throw in T.Dilfer, too) have all been to the playoffs with their teams. But, it is also possible that Edwards may turn out to be another Montana or Essaison--remember that it was none other than Bill Walsh, a guy who knew something about winning QBs, who urged his old friend Marv Levy to draft Edwards.

You also compared JP Losman to J.Elway. That was a comparison that I used myself until I saw JP continuing to make the same simple mistakes over and over again even last season. Another comparison that could be made in JP's case could be to Jeff George--another strong-armed QB who loved to throw the deep ball, but never quite figured it all out on the NFL level.

What I saw Trent Edwards do last year that gives me hope that he can develop into a QB who can give the Bills quality play from the QB position that I have yet to see from JP Losman was Edwards' ability--even as a rookie and without the benefit of being able to call audibles--to keep the sticks moving between the 20 yard lines with some consistency.

While I haven't done a statistical comparison, I think it was apparent last season that Edwards had fewer "three-and-outs" in his nine starts than Losman had in his first nine starts and that he put together more multi-play (6 or more) drives as well. Indeed, Edwards may have averaged fewer "three-and-outs" and more multi-play drives than Losman did last year--when one was a rookie and the other a 3rd year player.

While Losman may be capable of producing more "big" plays and more unexpected improvisations than Edwards, once Edwards learns how to use his audibles and continues to develop as a NFL QB, Edwards has the potential to be a lot more consistently productive than Losman. Big plays may be entertaining for the fans to watch, but a QB who can be consistently productive is ultimately going to produce more wins for his team. And, that is why the Bills have chosen to go with Edwards over Losman.

Finally, consider this: while the Bills used a third round draft pick on Edwards and liked what they saw of him in the OTAs, they did not go into last season expecting much from Edwards--Losman was firmly ensconced as the starting QB based on his performance in 2006. Something changed that--either before or after Losman got hurt (depending on what you choose to believe)--and, by the end of last season the Bills were committed to Edwards, despite all that they have invested in Losman (which was more than they have invested in Edwards, even to this point). Why do you think that happened?

Again, you can assume that everyone from R.Wilson down to the coaches on the coaching staff are brainless idiots. Or, you have to take into consideration that there is a reason--something that they have seen in Edwards or not seen in Losman--that leads them to believe that Edwards will ultimately be better able to win games in the NFL.

Does that mean that Losman will never make it in the NFL? No. It is possible that he can still become a quality NFL QB. But, from what he showed in the games that he played last season, he still has a long way to go to get to that point, even though he is entering his fourth season in the league. At this point, IMHO Edwards, despite just entering his second season, is at least as far along, if not farther, towards proving that he can give the Bills consistent quality play from the QB position this season and down the road.

[mybills]

He had some great pinpoint throws at times, but also would throw at receivers feet on simple 5 yard crossing routes.

To be fair, Trent sometimes threw at their feet, too. Personally, I don't look at stats, just the physical styles of QB's, and while they both have their strengths & weaknesses, they're very similar to me. That's why I can't say I like either of them the "best". I've said, and still say, I like them both.

So, Go Trent and Go JP, but most of all, Go Bills!