Tweet
First I will start with last year's record of 7-9. Then let's look at the following components to a team's success: coaching, offensive players, defensive players, ST players and strength of schedule.
1. Coaching.
The Bills have undergone two significant changes to the coaching staff. First, former Offensive Coordinator Steve Fairchild is gone and has been replaced by Turk Schonert. This is, quite simply, addition by subtraction. Considering that Mother Lecter would be a better OC than Fairchild this is a positive step.
Second, veteran O-line coach Jim McNally retired. The man who brought Jason Peters from being a UDFA Tight End to a Pro Bowl LT is gone and replaced byLockport
No additional wins or losses.
Still at 7 wins.
2. Offensive Players
The Bills made no significant veteran additions to this unit. While it is disappointing, the lack of TE’s and WR’s in the free agency market make it hardly surprising. Any improvement on offense will have to come from rookies (Hardy, Fine), the improvement of 2nd year players (Trent, Lynch) and the fact the O-line will remain the same for a 2nd year and should have improved cohesiveness.
Weaknesses still remain at TE and OL depth (although that is hardly uncommon in the NFL). Adding a FB to the mix could also help Lynch/Jackson/Wright/Omon gain tough short yardage at the goal line and in 3rd and 4th and short conditions.
The improvement is unlikely to be significant, but as we saw a gain of a point or two a game could have changed the outcome of at least two games last year (Dallas and Denver
Up to 8 wins!
3. Defensive Players
This should be the most improved area on the team. Marcus Stroud, even at 90%, is 10X better than Larry Tripplett. Spencer Johnson is better than Jason Jefferson. John McCargo seemed to be coming into his own last year. Ryan Denney, a solid #3 DE and pass rusher, is back from injury. #4 DE might be weak, but if Johnson can swing over and/or Ellis can rush the passer, the Bills might not be worse off than most teams at #4 DE. And, if the LBs and DTs are better, Schobel should be able to get after the QB more and will hopefully return to double digit sack totals.
LB should be greatly improved. Poz is back from injury and Mitchell joins the team. Now Keith Ellison and John DiGiorgio can be back-ups and depth players, which are great roles for them. Having depth that has started before is always a positive.
The defensive backfield gets Ko Simpson back, added Leodis McKelvin and Will James, and also has the benefit of having experienced depth at safety with George Wilson having started a good portion of last season. With now having the top four corners being James, McGee, McKelvin, and Greer and actual depth at safety not named Leonard, this unit should also be quite improved.
Really this unit should contribute two more wins to the Bills season.
Up to 10 wins!
4. ST Players
This unit, imo, will be worse than last season. The losses of Stamer,Hag gan, Wire, Hargrove and Aiken takes away five long time contributors and leaders to the ST. While Wendling and Jenkins showed flashes last year, rookies like Bowen, Fine, Ellis and Omon will have to produce. The return to full time duty of Ellison and DiGiorgio will help; still I see the unit declining and lead to one less win than last year.
Back down to 9 wins.
5. Strength of Schedule
Quite simply, the Bills have (in theory) an easier schedule than last year. Of course, that can all change once the season starts, but for now it is easier.
I predict this will add one win to the Bills total.
So we finish with a grand total of ten wins.
1. Coaching.
The Bills have undergone two significant changes to the coaching staff. First, former Offensive Coordinator Steve Fairchild is gone and has been replaced by Turk Schonert. This is, quite simply, addition by subtraction. Considering that Mother Lecter would be a better OC than Fairchild this is a positive step.
Second, veteran O-line coach Jim McNally retired. The man who brought Jason Peters from being a UDFA Tight End to a Pro Bowl LT is gone and replaced by
No additional wins or losses.
Still at 7 wins.
2. Offensive Players
The Bills made no significant veteran additions to this unit. While it is disappointing, the lack of TE’s and WR’s in the free agency market make it hardly surprising. Any improvement on offense will have to come from rookies (Hardy, Fine), the improvement of 2nd year players (Trent, Lynch) and the fact the O-line will remain the same for a 2nd year and should have improved cohesiveness.
Weaknesses still remain at TE and OL depth (although that is hardly uncommon in the NFL). Adding a FB to the mix could also help Lynch/Jackson/Wright/Omon gain tough short yardage at the goal line and in 3rd and 4th and short conditions.
The improvement is unlikely to be significant, but as we saw a gain of a point or two a game could have changed the outcome of at least two games last year (
Up to 8 wins!
3. Defensive Players
This should be the most improved area on the team. Marcus Stroud, even at 90%, is 10X better than Larry Tripplett. Spencer Johnson is better than Jason Jefferson. John McCargo seemed to be coming into his own last year. Ryan Denney, a solid #3 DE and pass rusher, is back from injury. #4 DE might be weak, but if Johnson can swing over and/or Ellis can rush the passer, the Bills might not be worse off than most teams at #4 DE. And, if the LBs and DTs are better, Schobel should be able to get after the QB more and will hopefully return to double digit sack totals.
LB should be greatly improved. Poz is back from injury and Mitchell joins the team. Now Keith Ellison and John DiGiorgio can be back-ups and depth players, which are great roles for them. Having depth that has started before is always a positive.
The defensive backfield gets Ko Simpson back, added Leodis McKelvin and Will James, and also has the benefit of having experienced depth at safety with George Wilson having started a good portion of last season. With now having the top four corners being James, McGee, McKelvin, and Greer and actual depth at safety not named Leonard, this unit should also be quite improved.
Really this unit should contribute two more wins to the Bills season.
Up to 10 wins!
4. ST Players
This unit, imo, will be worse than last season. The losses of Stamer,
Back down to 9 wins.
5. Strength of Schedule
Quite simply, the Bills have (in theory) an easier schedule than last year. Of course, that can all change once the season starts, but for now it is easier.
I predict this will add one win to the Bills total.
So we finish with a grand total of ten wins.
"Expect rejection, but expect more to overcome it." 
Comment