Mike Lombardi predicts Buffalo in the playoffs

[Ickybaluky]

The Bills bandwagon is taking on new people, and Lombardi chimes in on SI.com (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/michael_lombardi/07/16/frankly.football/index.html):


The Bills are a team I love. They have a talented core of young players. They have a very good defensive line with DE Aaron Schobel and offseason acquisition Marcus Stroud at DT. They have a bright young quarterback in Trent Edwards, who is surrounded by some of the best skills players in the NFL with wide receivers Roscoe Parrish and Lee Evans and running back Marshawn Lynch. This is a potentially dynamic offense -- as they learn how to play the game, they will improve and become very tough to slow down. They should score points in bunches.

Their special team units, covering and returning kicks, are in the top five in the NFL. Very few teams can match their talent in the kicking game and they can control field position with these units. Parrish is dynamic with the ball in his hands on punt returns and Terrence McGee as the kickoff returner assures the Bills great field position every time he touches the ball.

They do have a favorable schedule, playing the AFC West and the NFC West this year. Last year, the Bills were 7-6 heading into the final three weeks of the season, but could not close out with any wins. They also had two home games clearly within reach that they let slip away -- the opener against the Broncos and then against the Cowboys. Add those two wins and they would have been 9-4 with three weeks to play. So, with a few breaks -- or maybe a few less breaks than a year ago (the Bills led the league in IR players last year) -- expect the Bills to be a very tough team this season.

[The Answer]

I must admit that I'm truly amazed at the level of hype this team this offseason. There are very few 'experts' out there that think we are going to be a sub .500 team again.

All this media attention also magnifies the impact that Trent has had since arriving in Buffalo - is it september yet?

:beer:

~The Answer

[Mitchy moo]

:dance:

[hydro]

I guess all these people giving us praise nullifies the comments from FTP saying that only Bills fans believe they are a good team. :idunno:

[PECKERWOOD]

I really like Mike Lombardi, everytime I hear the guy talk he says good things about the Bills, he has been on the bandwagon for awhile now.

[justasportsfan]

This is a potentially dynamic offense -- here's to hoping the potential becomes a reality.

[OpIv37]

Right off the bat, he overrates Schobel and Parrish. Parrish is a great skills player but his size limits the team's ability to put the ball in his hand and Schobel- well, I think that's been discussed ad nauseum on this board.

Then, he overrates the effects of the injuries. NONE of the key injuries last year were on the offensive side of the ball, and the only addition to the #30 offense in the NFL is a rookie WR. He even admits that the offense has a lot of "potential", which is just a fancy way of saying they haven't done anything yet. And he fails to discuss that player improvement was supposed to fix the D last year and it got us a #31 overall ranking.

All of these national media types predicting the playoffs for the Bills are giving the offense way too much credit.

And finally, he failed to mention that Jauron is still our head coach. Jauron is similar to God- he does great things for six days then takes Sunday off.

On a related note, every time a national media outlet says something negative about the Bills, there are a million posts about how the national media doesn't pay enough attention to the team and doesn't know what they're talking about. But every time someone in the national media says something good about the Bills, suddenly it's credible. We can't have it both ways.

[Mitchy moo]

Right off the bat, he overrates Schobel and Parrish. Parrish is a great skills player but his size limits the team's ability to put the ball in his hand and Schobel- well, I think that's been discussed ad nauseum on this board.

Then, he overrates the effects of the injuries. NONE of the key injuries last year were on the offensive side of the ball, and the only addition to the #30 offense in the NFL is a rookie WR. He even admits that the offense has a lot of "potential", which is just a fancy way of saying they haven't done anything yet. And he fails to discuss that player improvement was supposed to fix the D last year and it got us a #31 overall ranking.

All of these national media types predicting the playoffs for the Bills are giving the offense way too much credit.

And finally, he failed to mention that Jauron is still our head coach. Jauron is similar to God- he does great things for six days then takes Sunday off.

On a related note, every time a national media outlet says something negative about the Bills, there are a million posts about how the national media doesn't pay enough attention to the team and doesn't know what they're talking about. But every time someone in the national media says something good about the Bills, suddenly it's credible. We can't have it both ways.

There is only one way I want, the Bills winning alot of games and being respectable in the one's they lose. I don't mind losing some, I just don't like losing ugly.

[justasportsfan]

On a related note, every time a national media outlet says something negative about the Bills, there are a million posts about how the national media doesn't pay enough attention to the team and doesn't know what they're talking about. But every time someone in the national media says something good about the Bills, suddenly it's credible. We can't have it both ways. like the way you are so quick to dump on anything positive?

[OpIv37]

like the way you are so quick to dump on anything positive?

correction- I'm dumping on something that's unrealistic.

This guy just conveniently didn't mention a whole bunch of things that don't support his assertion that the Bills will be good. It almost seems like he started with the conclusion and worked backwards to find things that would support it rather than looking at all the available information and then coming to a conclusion.

[justasportsfan]

correction- I'm dumping on something that's unrealistic.

This guy just conveniently didn't mention a whole bunch of things that don't support his assertion that the Bills will be good. It almost seems like he started with the conclusion and worked backwards to find things that would support it rather than looking at all the available information and then coming to a conclusion.

I agree. Every fan loves to hear something positive about the team. You're the only one who gets pissed about it. Well wys was another and Gr8slayer is cathcing up to you.

Unrealistic, not everything is unrealistic. When people said the D would be better afterplaying 1 year together , you posts pages blasting it. In the end, the D was better and would've been even better if it weren't for the injuries.

[OpIv37]

I agree. Every fan loves to hear something positive about the team. You're the only one who gets pissed about it. Well wys was another and Gr8slayer is cathcing up to you.

Unrealistic, not everything is unrealistic. When people said the D would be better afterplaying 1 year together , you posts pages blasting it. In the end, the D was better and would've been even better if it weren't for the injuries.

I strongly believe that the negatives outweigh the positives for this team, and when someone states the positives while ignoring the negatives, all it does is create false hope and unrealistic expectations.

I disagree with this guy, and I'm simply stating my disagreement.

If I truly felt that the positives outweighed the negatives for this team and someone wrote an article ignoring all the positives, I'd do the same thing.

And btw, the D was better in some ways and worse in others- we gave up more overall yards and more passing yards in 07 than in 06, but less running yards. So, people are overrating that "1 year of playing together" stuff.

[justasportsfan]

I strongly believe that the negatives outweigh the positives for this team, and when someone states the positives while ignoring the negatives, all it does is create false hope and unrealistic expectations.

I disagree with this guy, and I'm simply stating my disagreement.

If I truly felt that the positives outweighed the negatives for this team and someone wrote an article ignoring all the positives, I'd do the same thing.

And btw, the D was better in some ways and worse in others- we gave up more overall yards and more passing yards in 07 than in 06, but less running yards. So, people are overrating that "1 year of playing together" stuff.


I like the potential this team brings forth but PArrish was not what I had in mind. Maybe in the punt return.

[OpIv37]

I like the potential this team brings forth but PArrish was not what I had in mind. Maybe in the punt return.

I definitely agree with that. Parrish is fast and shifty as hell but he can't break tackles and his size makes it difficult to put the ball in his hands. He's a nice change of pace but doesn't work as an every-down receiver.

[patmoran2006]

lol.
OP the downer.

[Pinkerton Security]

correction- I'm dumping on something that's unrealistic.

This guy just conveniently didn't mention a whole bunch of things that don't support his assertion that the Bills will be good. It almost seems like he started with the conclusion and worked backwards to find things that would support it rather than looking at all the available information and then coming to a conclusion.

Are you saying its unrealistic for us to make the playoffs??

[OpIv37]

Are you saying its unrealistic for us to make the playoffs??

yup.

I see another 7-9 season. The D should be better, but the offense is going to be equally as bad as last year and will hang the D out to dry. They'll be on the field too much and collapse late in games.

Plus, we're not winning the division because the Patriots are too good. In the AFC, we'll need to hit at least 10-6, maybe even 11-5 to get a wild card. I simply don't see 3-4 wins worth of improvement from last year.

I'm not saying it's impossible- I'm just saying playoffs are a very unlikely outcome for this team.

[justasportsfan]

Are you saying its unrealistic for us to make the playoffs??
yes.

[patmoran2006]

Right off the bat, he overrates Schobel and Parrish. Parrish is a great skills player but his size limits the team's ability to put the ball in his hand and Schobel- well, I think that's been discussed ad nauseum on this board.
I don't know why you people call Schobel overated. He's not. I don't hear anybody saying he's Jason Taylor. By that comparison he'd be overated, but he's not. He's a quality DE, far better than average; and the numbers don't lie. Not counting last year, he's had 53 sacks over five seasons. Even last year when he supposedly "struggled" so bad, he still had 6.5 sacks and a number NOBODY talks about; 5 forced fumbles. He has 18 forced fumbles in his career. Bottom line, is he is a playmaker for this team. He's not the best, and he's not great against the run; but in comparison to most DE's in the league, he's better, period.

Then, he overrates the effects of the injuries. NONE of the key injuries last year were on the offensive side of the ball, and the only addition to the #30 offense in the NFL is a rookie WR. He even admits that the offense has a lot of "potential", which is just a fancy way of saying they haven't done anything yet. And he fails to discuss that player improvement was supposed to fix the D last year and it got us a #31 overall ranking.

Everything you just said is based on "paper". Yes, Hardy is the only physical addition. .However, they have a new coordinator and that matters.. More importantly, they have a starting quarterback and running back who are no longer rookies.. THey know the league and what to expect better and should be greatly improved. They also have an offensive line that is the same starting five as last year (continuity.) Don't forget- last year 60% of our offensive line starters weren't starters the year before.. It takes time for lines to gel.. They've have time.

All of these national media types predicting the playoffs for the Bills are giving the offense way too much credit.
Any credit would be considered more than you give.

And finally, he failed to mention that Jauron is still our head coach. Jauron is similar to God- he does great things for six days then takes Sunday off.
I'm not a Jauron fan either. I hate his game-day coaching tactics. I am sadly confident his coaching will blow at least two winnable games this year.

On a related note, every time a national media outlet says something negative about the Bills, there are a million posts about how the national media doesn't pay enough attention to the team and doesn't know what they're talking about. But every time someone in the national media says something good about the Bills, suddenly it's credible. We can't have it both ways
Agreed. However, that's the norm for a "fan" board. I'm as openly critical of the Bills as anyone over the past several seasons; but this year I see no good reason why they can't reach double digit wins and legimiately contend for a playoff spot.
.

[justasportsfan]

I actually agree with Pat about Schobel :ill:

[feelthepain]

I think the Bills need to win games they are predicted to lose and win more then 7 games a season before they are given any credit at all. Bill fans think the Dolphins should be trashed with every word based on last year, but the Bills have done nothing for 10 years and Bill fans expect respect before their team has earned it? Winning 7 games last year is hardly proof of a team headed in the right direction. As is winning just 2 games in the last two years against teams that have winning records. Having the 30th ranked offense and the 31st ranked defense winning just 14 out of the last 32 games. There are just too many reasons not to think the Bills will be better theis year. IMO the ones who are predicting good things for the Bills are taking a shot in the dark, if it works out due to a soft schedule they look like geniuses, but that's a BIG IF!!

[patmoran2006]

In your mind, is it even conceivable that a rookie quarterback gets better in his second season after being in the league for a year? Trent Edwards wasn't only a rookie last year, he was one expected to do nothing in 2007. He became the starter by week four of his rookie season.. Did you not expect rookie bumps? Did you expect him to be Peyton Manning in two, three months?

Why you keep insisting the offense will suck because they "only" added a rookie (Hardy) to the mix is beyond me. Edwards will improve this year, and the OL has continuity now, which is very good news for yet another offensive player who was a rookie last year, Marshawn Lynch.

And by the way, the one rookie they did add to the offense is exactly what the unit need MOST; a big WR who can go up and get the ball and produce points in the red zone.

This offense will be just fine, I don't know why you keep saying that. I can only imagine what your posts would've been like had you been a Cowboys fan after Aikman's rookie season, Colts after Peyton, etc etc.

[justasportsfan]

I Bill fans think the Dolphins should be trashed with every word based on last year, but the Bills have done nothing for 10 years and Bill fans expect respect before their team has earned it?
last year vs. 10 years? And this guy is a MOD? :roflmao:

you predict the fins are better than the bills every year based on the prior year. You still think the fins were better than the bills the last 3 years. :coocoo:

[OpIv37]

We paid Schobel almost $1.5 million per sack last season. That's why people call him overrated. You pulled a reverse- Wys on your number and threw out his worst year as if it wasn't relevant. Well, his worst year was also his most recent year so it most certainly is relevant. Just watch him play. He lines up too wide and is easily steered past the QB, which also opens up a running lane. It seems like he never even tries to go inside the tackle. The guy's slightly above average at at best.

So Lynch and Edwards aren't rookies? So what? So the offensive line had a whole year together? So what? Last year, Whitner and Ellison and DiGiorgio and Williams and McCargo were no longer rookies and it didn't help the D any. The entire DL had a year of playing together and it didn't help them any. The experience won't hurt Edwards but remember he finished last year on a 3 game losing streak where he looked terrible. He certainly didn't get better by not playing NFL football all off-season and it's going to take him time to improve. It takes more than just experience to improve.

And even if the experience does help the O improve, they have a LONG way to go. It's entirely possible that they could improve and still completely suck. If we go from 30th to, say, 24th, that's improvement but we'll still lose a lot of games in the meantime.

[Patrick76777]

yup.

I see another 7-9 season.


Honestly, Op always under estimates. So an Op 7-9 season probably means about a 10-6 season. So this is good news.


You just have to use the Op post translation formula.

[OpIv37]

In your mind, is it even conceivable that a rookie quarterback gets better in his second season after being in the league for a year? Trent Edwards wasn't only a rookie last year, he was one expected to do nothing in 2007. He became the starter by week four of his rookie season.. Did you not expect rookie bumps? Did you expect him to be Peyton Manning in two, three months?

Why you keep insisting the offense will suck because they "only" added a rookie (Hardy) to the mix is beyond me. Edwards will improve this year, and the OL has continuity now, which is very good news for yet another offensive player who was a rookie last year, Marshawn Lynch.

And by the way, the one rookie they did add to the offense is exactly what the unit need MOST; a big WR who can go up and get the ball and produce points in the red zone.

This offense will be just fine, I don't know why you keep saying that. I can only imagine what your posts would've been like had you been a Cowboys fan after Aikman's rookie season, Colts after Peyton, etc etc.


The offense will not be just fine. See my last post- the offense probably will improve, but it will also probably still completely suck. There's a lot of improvement needed to get to where we were last year to good, or even to get from where we were last year to serviceable.

[trapezeus]

the prediction scares me only because the last two years, the dark horse media darlings, totally crapped the bed. I agree with OP on a lot of his comments. with the exception that the Turk OC move wasn't commented on. i really think he adds a new layer and can be a good combo with Edwards. You get two young guys with a lot to prove, good things can happen.

As for FTP responding to the thread. you're team is still an 1-15 team. Quote what you want, but the truth remains that the worst bills teams in the history of the NFL, still doubled the number of your wins last season. Thank you come again.

[OpIv37]

Oh yeah I forgot about Turk.

It's hard to imagine him being worse than Fairchild so it should be an improvement. But at the same time, he's completely unproven as an OC so it could go either way.

[Buckets]

Right off the bat, he overrates Schobel and Parrish. Parrish is a great skills player but his size limits the team's ability to put the ball in his hand and Schobel- well, I think that's been discussed ad nauseum on this board.

Then, he overrates the effects of the injuries. NONE of the key injuries last year were on the offensive side of the ball, and the only addition to the #30 offense in the NFL is a rookie WR. He even admits that the offense has a lot of "potential", which is just a fancy way of saying they haven't done anything yet. And he fails to discuss that player improvement was supposed to fix the D last year and it got us a #31 overall ranking.

All of these national media types predicting the playoffs for the Bills are giving the offense way too much credit.

And finally, he failed to mention that Jauron is still our head coach. Jauron is similar to God- he does great things for six days then takes Sunday off.

On a related note, every time a national media outlet says something negative about the Bills, there are a million posts about how the national media doesn't pay enough attention to the team and doesn't know what they're talking about. But every time someone in the national media says something good about the Bills, suddenly it's credible. We can't have it both ways.

Wes Welker WR 5-9 185 5/1/1981

Why does everyone always say Parish is too small?

[mybills]

"as they learn how to play the game, they will improve and become very tough to slow down"

Every name he mentioned before this, KNOWS how to play the game.

[OpIv37]

Wes Welker WR 5-9 185 5/1/1981

Why does everyone always say Parish is too small?

Parrish is listed as 5'9" 171 but he's closer to 5'7" 165.

He's too small.

Have you ever seen him break a tackle or outjump someone for a pass? Or use his body to keep a defender from the ball? He's too small to do any of those things.

Don't forget that Welker has Moss lining up opposite him, so if NE needs to throw a jump ball, they can use Moss. We have Evans, who is only 5'9" himself.

Most CB's are in the 5'9"-6'1" range so most teams have at least 1 WR that's in the 6'3" range to get those extra 2-3 inches. The Bills CEDE those 2-3 inches instead of gaining them.

[Mitchy moo]

Honestly, Op always under estimates. So an Op 7-9 season probably means about a 10-6 season. So this is good news.


You just have to use the Op post translation formula.

Reverse his numbers and add 12%, got it. Thanks.

[justasportsfan]

Have you ever seen him break a tackle Or use his body to keep a defender from the ball? He's too small to do any of those things.

.
yes, I've seen him break a tackle .

I've also seen him use his body to keep a defender from the ball. The pass from JP to win us the game in 06.

[hydro]

"as they learn how to play the game, they will improve and become very tough to slow down"

Every name he mentioned before this, KNOWS how to play the game.

That could be seen as poor wording by him but these guys don't know every nuance of the game this early in their career. There are different degrees of football IQ.

[feelthepain]

In your mind, is it even conceivable that a rookie quarterback gets better in his second season after being in the league for a year? Trent Edwards wasn't only a rookie last year, he was one expected to do nothing in 2007. He became the starter by week four of his rookie season.. Did you not expect rookie bumps? Did you expect him to be Peyton Manning in two, three months?

Why you keep insisting the offense will suck because they "only" added a rookie (Hardy) to the mix is beyond me. Edwards will improve this year, and the OL has continuity now, which is very good news for yet another offensive player who was a rookie last year, Marshawn Lynch.

And by the way, the one rookie they did add to the offense is exactly what the unit need MOST; a big WR who can go up and get the ball and produce points in the red zone.

This offense will be just fine, I don't know why you keep saying that. I can only imagine what your posts would've been like had you been a Cowboys fan after Aikman's rookie season, Colts after Peyton, etc etc.


Didn't Bill fans have this same opinion about JP before the start of the 07 season, and JP was coming off a better season then Trent. How is it Trent "will" imporve? I don't think there's any way to prove this. Basically you "hope" Trent will improve, that's no different then anyone else with a young QB. To speak in absolutes is a bit homerish!!

[OpIv37]

Didn't Bill fans have this same opinion about JP before the start of the 07 season, and JP was coming off a better season then Trent. How is it Trent "will" imporve? I don't think there's any way to prove this. Basically you "hope" Trent will improve, that's no different then anyone else with a young QB. To speak in absolutes is a bit homerish!!

QB is a hard position and players tend to get better with experience- usually QB's improve from year 1 to year 2. Certainly there are exceptions (Losman being one of them) and there is no guarantee that Trent will improve. But it's reasonable to expect some improvement.

Personally, I think that Trent will improve. I just think that the O is so bad that his improvement won't be enough to make the O decent.

[justasportsfan]

Didn't Bill fans have this same opinion about JP before the start of the 07 season, and JP was coming off a better season then Trent. How is it Trent "will" imporve? I don't think there's any way to prove this. Basically you "hope" Trent will improve, that's no different then anyone else with a young QB. To speak in absolutes is a bit homerish!!

Look who's talking. You said Daunte would be as good as his old self with Moss when he goes to miami. talking aout his probowls ,blah,blah,blah. How did that turn out? It resulted in you sending him a love letter.

[Mitchy moo]

Didn't Bill fans have this same opinion about JP before the start of the 07 season, and JP was coming off a better season then Trent. How is it Trent "will" imporve? I don't think there's any way to prove this. Basically you "hope" Trent will improve, that's no different then anyone else with a young QB. To speak in absolutes is a bit homerish!!

I agree with you on some of this but Trent is not JP. Trent already is at or above JP's level with literally no 1st string training camp last season. I feel that Trent's development is going to determine how the season goes. If he gets going, we are going to do just great. If he is so, so (which is what I expect early) early and improves, we'll do good. If he flat outs sucks all season, we are back to square one. The Dolphins are at -1 right now after being a -15, so you guys should improve if not by just having a easier schedule like us.

[justasportsfan]

Trent already is at or above JP's level with literally no 1st string training camp last season. I feel that Trent's development is going to determine how the season goes. If he gets going, we are going to do just great. .you're talking potential skoobs. Not whats proven.

[RockStar36]

I hate that Buffalo is the hip new pick this season. Reminds me of how SF and ARZ were sleepers the last two years and absolutely sucked ass.

But aside from that, those are the same points I make when I say I think Buffalo can make the playoffs. They were so freakin close last year, they get those players on IR back, they improved the D, Edwards is the starter going in and there is no QB games to deal with, and Hardy should dramatically improve the red zone offense.

[RockStar36]

Didn't Bill fans have this same opinion about JP before the start of the 07 season, and JP was coming off a better season then Trent. How is it Trent "will" imporve? I don't think there's any way to prove this. Basically you "hope" Trent will improve, that's no different then anyone else with a young QB. To speak in absolutes is a bit homerish!!

Well...this is a Bills message board. What do you expect?

[John Doe]

I think that the offense has a chance to make some real strides this year and help get the team into the playoffs.

Players that I think will improve on offense over last season:

Edwards - he is getting the lion's share of the reps, has some valuable experience, and is stronger.

Lynch - lots of experience last year means that he will start off a lot stronger this season.

Wright - did not get a lot of work last year, but he got some valuable experience.

Peters - still some upside for a very good player

Butler - missed almost all of training camp but still managed to play respectably. Look for him to build on his experience

Royal - showed a lot of guts by playing a large portion of last season with a leg injury that required surgery. A healthy Royal is a better player.

Schouman - came into mini-camp a much improved player over last year

Some players on offense will get hurt, some will not play up to expectations, but there are a lot of reasons to think that the offense will much better.