Vegas and Bills

[trapezeus]

I went to vegas this weekend.

I put $5 on the bills to win the AFC and $5 on the superbowl with 25/1 odds and 50/1 odds, respectively.

kind of lame that you can't put a simple, "make the playoffs bet". the vegas odds were the bills would go 8-8 and if they went 9-7, you broke even. So i didn't do that one.

Anyways, for some reason i have more faith the bills can win the superbowl than win the AFC. I feel like if you win the conference, 9-10 times its because you are the better team and played like that for an entire season. To win the superbowl, it's just a matter of momentum and luck.

[TacklingDummy]

the vegas odds were the bills would go 8-8 and if they went 9-7, you broke even. So i didn't do that one.



Should have bet under.

[trapezeus]

the under actually doesn't pay even. for every dollar you put on the bills to go under 8-8, you only make back 80 cents. seems like the rest of the world is going against the bills.

I guess it's one thing to be a writer and proclaim great things for the bills vs what the bettors are saying with their dollars. Could be another annoyingly long year. but i'm rooting on the 50-1 shot.

[Mitchy moo]

I put a fortune down on the over last season and hit it. 8-8 is a great bet and I am just waiting to see how healthy they come out of the pre-season, then it's another over bet.

P.S. The under is a sucker bet.

[feelthepain]

Bett'n man say's 8-8, that doesn't sound like Vegas is nearly as impressed with the Bills as most of their fans.

[feelthepain]

the under actually doesn't pay even. for every dollar you put on the bills to go under 8-8, you only make back 80 cents. seems like the rest of the world is going against the bills.

I guess it's one thing to be a writer and proclaim great things for the bills vs what the bettors are saying with their dollars. Could be another annoyingly long year. but i'm rooting on the 50-1 shot.

This is by far a more accurate estimate then anything else you'll read, there is ZERO bias in Vegas odds, they love their money way too much to piss it away on ego's and blind faith. They will win some and lose some, but they make their odds with as little risk to the house as possible.

[Mitchy moo]

Bett'n man say's 8-8, that doesn't sound like Vegas is nearly as impressed with the Bills as most of their fans.

Ironically, those we're the same odds for the giants last season.

[feelthepain]

Ironically, those we're the same odds for the giants last season.

What isn't ironic is the level of talent in coaching and personnel the Giants have that the Bills don't.

[Captain gameboy]

Bett'n man say's 8-8, that doesn't sound like Vegas is nearly as impressed with the Bills as most of their fans.

That's exactly why we took so much of the other fan's money last year on the over 6 bet.

[djjimkelly]

the under is free money!!!!!!!!!!!

[Mitchy moo]

What isn't ironic is the level of talent in coaching and personnel the Giants have that the Bills don't.

They we're all hero's in your eyes the season before last I assume, right? There is only 1 coaching staff a year that completes it job every season, so you use the giants staff as a reference against everyone.

[hydro]

What were the odds for the dolphins Trap?

[feelthepain]

They we're all hero's in your eyes the season before last I assume, right? There is only 1 coaching staff a year that completes it job every season, so you use the giants staff as a reference against everyone.

Go to Vegas and tell them you're offended they don't see the Bills as a playoff team, see how far it gets you.

[DrGraves]

50-1 to win the superbowl? that sucks... theres only 32 teams in the leauge, realistically 31 because miami is like a AAA club.

[Mitchy moo]

Go to Vegas and tell them you're offended they don't see the Bills as a playoff team, see how far it gets you.

Personally, I am glad that they see us as a .500. That really means that the Bills need only win a few extra games past what's expected to make the playoffs. I have no idea why you try to extend things in such a harsh light one why or the other, I am not trying to start a conflict with you.

[BlackMetalNinja]

What were the odds for the dolphins Trap?

<table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody id="386653"><tr><td colspan="10" class="lines-contest-title"> FW 33 2008 (F) MIAMI : TOTAL REGULAR SEASON GAMES WON (1:00 pm ET) </td></tr><tr class="lines-contest-header"> <td valign="bottom" height="25">Outcome </td><td align="right" valign="bottom">
</td><td> </td><td>
</td><td align="right" valign="bottom">Wins </td><td> </td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td align="right" valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap">Money Line</td><td>
</td></tr><tr class="lines-contest-oddrow"> <td>OVER </td><td align="right">
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td align="right">5.5 </td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td align="right">
</td><td align="right">-115 (http://www.wsex.com/cgi/straight_form?propacro=7933)
</td><td> </td></tr><tr class="lines-contest-evenrow"> <td>UNDER </td><td align="right">
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td align="right">5.5 </td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td align="right">
</td><td align="right">-115 (http://www.wsex.com/cgi/straight_form?propacro=7934)
</td><td> </td></tr></tbody></table>

My usual source for odds for the super bowl has them closed at the moment...

[feelthepain]

Personally, I am glad that they see us as a .500. That really means that the Bills need only win a few extra games past what's expected to make the playoffs. I have no idea why you try to extend things in such a harsh light one why or the other, I am not trying to start a conflict with you.

Or it means they only need a few loses to make then even worse then they were last year.

[hydro]

<table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody id="386653"><tr><td colspan="10" class="lines-contest-title"> FW 33 2008 (F) MIAMI : TOTAL REGULAR SEASON GAMES WON (1:00 pm ET) </td></tr><tr class="lines-contest-header"> <td valign="bottom" height="25">Outcome </td><td align="right" valign="bottom">
</td><td> </td><td>
</td><td align="right" valign="bottom">Wins </td><td> </td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td align="right" valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap">Money Line</td><td>
</td></tr><tr class="lines-contest-oddrow"> <td>OVER </td><td align="right">
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td align="right">5.5 </td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td align="right">
</td><td align="right">-115 (http://www.wsex.com/cgi/straight_form?propacro=7933)
</td><td> </td></tr><tr class="lines-contest-evenrow"> <td>UNDER </td><td align="right">
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td align="right">5.5 </td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td align="right">
</td><td align="right">-115 (http://www.wsex.com/cgi/straight_form?propacro=7934)
</td><td> </td></tr></tbody></table>

My usual source for odds for the super bowl has them closed at the moment...

Looks like Vegas doesn't think the dolphins have a chance at being better than the Bills this year :rolleyes:

[trapezeus]

i have the odds for the AFC and superbowl at home. but i remember seeing that the falcons had the worst odds at 125-1. I want to say that the dolphins were between 75-1 to 90 to 1.

I was entertaining the idea of betting on the sabres season, but i'm a novice gambler and was just more into the bills season at this point. but i'd love to go back to vegas and bet on a sabres game and then watch it.

Skoob, you seem to know alot about gambling and what not. What does it mean when the odds are written like -120 or +300. just curious.

[DrGraves]

i have the odds for the AFC and superbowl at home. but i remember seeing that the falcons had the worst odds at 125-1. I want to say that the dolphins were between 75-1 to 90 to 1.

I was entertaining the idea of betting on the sabres season, but i'm a novice gambler and was just more into the bills season at this point. but i'd love to go back to vegas and bet on a sabres game and then watch it.

Skoob, you seem to know alot about gambling and what not. What does it mean when the odds are written like -120 or +300. just curious.


When you make a moneyline wager, you're betting on the outright winner of the event, without taking the point spread into consideration. There are still favorites and underdogs, but instead of being handicapped or assisted by head starts, the competitors are given odds to win the game or event.
Let's return to the NFL game where the Indianapolis Colts are favorites against the Arizona Cardinals. The odds might look like this:
Colts -150
Cardinals +130
If you bet on the Colts, you'll have to risk $150 to win $100 (or any other variation like $75 to win $50 or $300 to win $200). If you bet on the Cardinals, however, you stand to win $130 for every $100 you wager. If the final score of the game is tied, the wager will be graded "Push" and your money will be refunded.

[trapezeus]

When you make a moneyline wager, you're betting on the outright winner of the event, without taking the point spread into consideration. There are still favorites and underdogs, but instead of being handicapped or assisted by head starts, the competitors are given odds to win the game or event.
Let's return to the NFL game where the Indianapolis Colts are favorites against the Arizona Cardinals. The odds might look like this:
Colts -150
Cardinals +130
If you bet on the Colts, you'll have to risk $150 to win $100 (or any other variation like $75 to win $50 or $300 to win $200). If you bet on the Cardinals, however, you stand to win $130 for every $100 you wager. If the final score of the game is tied, the wager will be graded "Push" and your money will be refunded.

thanks. this was very helpful. how come sometimes they list it as 50/1 and other times do the +/-?

[yordad]

Bett'n man say's 8-8, that doesn't sound like Vegas is nearly as impressed with the Bills as most of their fans.So... Vegas is clairvoyant?

What are the Dolphins odds?

[trapezeus]

vegas is contemplating which dolphin is the next to leave football for dance.

[DrGraves]

+/- is usally used just for individual games when betting on straight up winner or losers... or you'll see the spread when betting on the bills being 20 pt favorites to the dolphins........ the 50/1 type stuff is used when there are more than two teams competing i.e. horse races, who will the the afc, etc.

[OpIv37]

I went to vegas this weekend.

I put $5 on the bills to win the AFC and $5 on the superbowl with 25/1 odds and 50/1 odds, respectively.

kind of lame that you can't put a simple, "make the playoffs bet". the vegas odds were the bills would go 8-8 and if they went 9-7, you broke even. So i didn't do that one.

Anyways, for some reason i have more faith the bills can win the superbowl than win the AFC. I feel like if you win the conference, 9-10 times its because you are the better team and played like that for an entire season. To win the superbowl, it's just a matter of momentum and luck.

My wife's gonna be in Vegas this week. I asked her to take $10 and place it on the Bills Super Bowl bet.

Her response? "I'm not wasting $10."

*sigh.

[hydro]

So... Vegas is clairvoyant?

What are the Dolphins odds?

Look up. I already asked...

[Coach Sal]

Last year I kept track of this interesting tidbit:
If you took all the over/unders in win totals, then bet "over" for every team listed in the bottom 10 on the list, you would have won like 7 out of the 10.

The numbers were similar if you bet "under" the win total for every team at the top 10 of the list.

If the same thing happens this year, I'm putting down a bunch of money next year on those 20 teams' totals.

I go to Vegas almost every year and put 25-50 bucks on both the Sabres and Bills to win either the conference or the title just for the hell of it no matter what the odds are.

[trapezeus]

Coach Sal, that makes a lot of sense. i figured that would be the case because each year's over/under is based on last year's performance and as any investor will tell you, past performance can not be a future indicator. I kinda wish i took that approach and took the overs on the weak teams and the unders on the good teams. i wonder what the pay out would have been last year. You don't happen to have the win loss from the beginning of last year, do you?

[BlackMetalNinja]

Coach Sal, that makes a lot of sense. i figured that would be the case because each year's over/under is based on last year's performance and as any investor will tell you, past performance can not be a future indicator. I kinda wish i took that approach and took the overs on the weak teams and the unders on the good teams. i wonder what the pay out would have been last year. You don't happen to have the win loss from the beginning of last year, do you?

Fat Tony had odds up on it... you should be able to dig them up in the Sports Book forum.

[Coach Sal]

Coach Sal, that makes a lot of sense. i figured that would be the case because each year's over/under is based on last year's performance and as any investor will tell you, past performance can not be a future indicator. I kinda wish i took that approach and took the overs on the weak teams and the unders on the good teams. i wonder what the pay out would have been last year. You don't happen to have the win loss from the beginning of last year, do you?

Here are the Vegas O/Us from before last season began:

<TABLE cellSpacing=5 cellPadding=5><TBODY><TR><TD>New England Patriots</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>Over -125</TD></TR><TR><TD>Indianapolis Colts</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>Under -170</TD></TR><TR><TD>San Diego Chargers</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>Over -145</TD></TR><TR><TD>Chicago Bears</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>Under -120</TD></TR><TR><TD>Baltimore Ravens</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>Over -115</TD></TR><TR><TD>Dallas Cowboys</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>Over -125</TD></TR><TR><TD>Denver Broncos</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>Over -125</TD></TR><TR><TD>Carolina Panthers</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>Under -130</TD></TR><TR><TD>Cincinnati Bengals</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>Over -130</TD></TR><TR><TD>Jacksonville Jaguars</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>Over -135</TD></TR><TR><TD>New Orleans Saints</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>Over -170</TD></TR><TR><TD>Philadelphia Eagles</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>Over -140</TD></TR><TR><TD>Pittsburgh Steelers</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>Under -155</TD></TR><TR><TD>Seattle Seahawks</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>Under -135</TD></TR><TR><TD>New York Giants</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>Under -160</TD></TR><TR><TD>New York Jets</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>Under -135</TD></TR><TR><TD>San Francisco 49ers</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>Under -135</TD></TR><TR><TD>Arizona Cardinals</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>Under -115</TD></TR><TR><TD>Green Bay Packers</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>Under -160</TD></TR><TR><TD>Kansas City Chiefs</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>Under -130</TD></TR><TR><TD>Miami Dolphins</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>Under -160</TD></TR><TR><TD>St. Louis Rams</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>Over -140</TD></TR><TR><TD>Washington Redskins</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>Under -125</TD></TR><TR><TD>Minnesota Vikings</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>Under -140</TD></TR><TR><TD>Tampa Bay Buccaneers</TD><TD>7 </TD><TD>Over -135</TD></TR><TR><TD>Tennessee Titans</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>Under -155</TD></TR><TR><TD>Houston Texans</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>Over -130</TD></TR><TR><TD>Buffalo Bills</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>Over -130</TD></TR><TR><TD>Cleveland Browns</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>Under -130</TD></TR><TR><TD>Detroit Lions</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>Over -170</TD></TR><TR><TD>Oakland Raiders</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>Over -155</TD></TR><TR><TD>x-Atlanta Falcons</TD><TD>OFF</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=3>x-Atlanta's win total is 6 at some sports books.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

If you took every team at 7 wins and below and went "over," you'd have won 10 out of 15 teams. That's a gold mine in betting terms.

I was a little mistaken on the other side. If you had bet every team listed at 8 or more to go "under," you would have won 9 out of 17. That's another winner.

[trapezeus]

so if it says over -130, does that mean if you took the under it was Even? just curious. i'm just running this through excel to see if you made the minimum bet of $5 as you said, what the payout would be.

[DrGraves]

Personally I am a college bball gambler...
bodoglife.com has a great online sportsbook and poker site...

[Coach Sal]

so if it says over -130, does that mean if you took the under it was Even? just curious. i'm just running this through excel to see if you made the minimum bet of $5 as you said, what the payout would be.

That is correct.

[trapezeus]

i'm running the scenario tomorrow to see what you're payout would be last year.

[mybills]

<table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody id="386653"><tr><td colspan="10" class="lines-contest-title"> FW 33 2008 (F) MIAMI : TOTAL REGULAR SEASON GAMES WON (1:00 pm ET) </td></tr><tr class="lines-contest-header"> <td valign="bottom" height="25">Outcome </td><td align="right" valign="bottom">
</td><td> </td><td>
</td><td align="right" valign="bottom">Wins </td><td> </td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td align="right" valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap">Money Line</td><td>
</td></tr><tr class="lines-contest-oddrow"> <td>OVER </td><td align="right">
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td align="right">5.5 </td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td align="right">
</td><td align="right">-115 (http://www.wsex.com/cgi/straight_form?propacro=7933)
</td><td> </td></tr><tr class="lines-contest-evenrow"> <td>UNDER </td><td align="right">
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td align="right">5.5 </td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td align="right">
</td><td align="right">-115 (http://www.wsex.com/cgi/straight_form?propacro=7934)
</td><td> </td></tr></tbody></table>

My usual source for odds for the super bowl has them closed at the moment...
lol at the 1-15..er, 115. :D

[SABURZFAN]

I was entertaining the idea of betting on the sabres season, but i'm a novice gambler and was just more into the bills season at this point. but i'd love to go back to vegas and bet on a sabres game and then watch it.



i do that out here in Vegas. :up:

[trapezeus]

ok, so i ran the numbers. Conclusion, you'd have lost money.

I ran it as $5 on each team. I took the Overs for all teams with 7 wins or less and unders on all teams 8 wins or higher.

So the $5 on each team would be an out of pocket expense of $155 at the time of the bet. The return was only $110.75. This accounts for the returning of cash when you got the evens.

Thanks for all that data.

[hydro]

There you have it folks. There is no way to cheat Vegas :down:

[BlackMetalNinja]

I think if you took out the middle of the pack teams you would win. Say bet over on all teams with 6 or less wins and under on all teams with 10 or more. Somebody can try the theory in the sportsbook here... odds are posted on this very same type of wager :up:

[trapezeus]

I think if you took out the middle of the pack teams you would win. Say bet over on all teams with 6 or less wins and under on all teams with 10 or more. Somebody can try the theory in the sportsbook here... odds are posted on this very same type of wager :up:

ran it your way. you still would be down. $45 at the time of the bet. And you'd only get $34 back at the end of the season. seems like you'd have to put more thought into your bets than picking generic, i think.

[BlackMetalNinja]

ran it your way. you still would be down. $45 at the time of the bet. And you'd only get $34 back at the end of the season. seems like you'd have to put more thought into your bets than picking generic, i think.

Good to know... and that's why I don't gamble!

[trapezeus]

me either, but i just wanted to see if you could roll out generic bets like that and how you'd do. ideally, i'd like to run this years odd with generic and my own picks and see how i do. perhaps the generic pick is still better than what i would guess.

[BlackMetalNinja]

me either, but i just wanted to see if you could roll out generic bets like that and how you'd do. ideally, i'd like to run this years odd with generic and my own picks and see how i do. perhaps the generic pick is still better than what i would guess.
Go bet your ZBs then, relatively risk free... unless you're obsessed with your ZB count like some others.

NFL Regular Season Games Won (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showthread.php?t=157529)

Though the numbers are slightly off from Vegas, in order to prevent pushes. All whole numbers were rounded up to the next half.