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Ingtar33
04-26-2003, 12:27 AM
For months I have derided the quality of player at DL, confused as always about the supposed "depth" that was to be had. I'd look at my scouting reports, scratch my head and move on. I would look at one mock draft, shrug my shoulders and move on.

This last week, I must have put together twenty different mock drafts in prep for this weekend. We have our board set up, and maybe I was distracted by personal problems or maybe I couldn’t believe what I saw, but a disturbing fact slipped right past me (and maybe my front office).

This draft is one of the poorest I've ever seen, or ever heard about.

The talent is thin, the studs are mid range talents. And guys who should go in the 2nd round are getting top billing. This was something I knew, heck I wasn’t totally daft, I just figured that maybe my rating of prospects had gotten tougher… after all I was coming up with close to the same “depth charts” for the prospects that everyone else in the office was… I just didn’t realize that my scouting wasn’t too tough, the quality was quite low.

Cases in point.

Newman, a guy who received grades comparable to Nate Clements in my book. Clements went at 21 two years ago, Newman promises to go in the top ten this year.

Robertson, a guy who was my 3rd best DT at the end of the senior bowl is now being considered as a top 5 pick? He simply isn't that good. In fact, last year, neither Kennedy nor Robertson would have rated out as even one of the top three DTs (although the depth at DE is much better than last year).

The best RB is Willis McGahee, an above average prospect most years (because of the knee), he is physically handicapped to the point it is debatable he'll ever play a down in the NFL. Yet he is so much better than the other guys he might just go in the 1st round. The first round is not a round for gambles... and there is supposed to be enough talent to kept you away from taking a guy like McGahee.

Tyron Calico, a WR I gave low 3rd round grades has shown up in the first round on some of the mock drafts in our clubhouse, taking a quick stroll across the internet tonight I saw we weren't the only ones to place a guy who can't even catch a cold in the first round.

The best OT wouldn't have gone in the first round last year. The best DE couldn't outrun Mike Williams. The LBs represent a crop of too small too slow guys who can actually play (unlike every other position in this draft), while the single LB who can't play (Boss Bailey) is the only lock to go in the first.

The best Safeties are SS, which is strange since I can't really remember the last time that happened (ignoring Woodson who doesn't count because the 'boys have him playing FS anyway). The best FS never played D1-A ball.

About the only position which isn't poor is QB, with 5 guys grading out as 1st round talent in my books, yet no-one is interested in drafting them? That makes little to no sense to me.

This is a draft of 2nd -5th rounders masquerading as 1st rounders, which means there will be more misses than hits, making any drafting by any team extremely risky.

Demon
04-26-2003, 12:35 AM
Relax. We got Tom Donahoe and his boys in charge, everything will be ok : )

SoCalBillsFan
04-26-2003, 12:40 AM
good analysis Ingtar. I too think this is a weak draft, which is why I am glad the jets and hopefully pats are trading up and wasting so many picks. At our 23 pick we won't be overpaying too much for someone. maybe it's like having two second rounders. That's ok by me. We dont need bigtime help this year, so I'm not too worried.

Ingtar33
04-26-2003, 12:42 AM
Actually I'm not sure I'm worried about TD... we're far enough back we wouldn't feel the need to justify our pick by nabbing a hit or miss guy... just pre-draft nerves... its a little tough to sleep after 10months of work leading up to this.

Ingtar33
04-26-2003, 12:51 AM
BTW: You want a freebee? The best non-blue chip QB in this draft will be Jason Gesser, while Leftwich and Ragone will be the only other guys who have a chance at making a mark out of this crop (I’m not much of a fan of anyone else in this one).

venis2k1
04-26-2003, 01:51 AM
You think Palmer is gonna pull a Ryan Leaf???

venis2k1
04-26-2003, 02:01 AM
While i havent watched these guys(in this coming draft) nearly as much as you Ingtar, i have to disagree with you(kinda) I agree as a whole this draft dosent offer much in terms of "super star" players, but I think in rounds 2-4 you will see alot of quality players go. And there are a few in this draft class that i can see being big name players. Charlie Rogers could become one of the best, Suggs is gonna be a big time player(40 times aside(also he ran better 40 times that michael strahan did coming into the NFL, and he turned out ok)). And Im willing to bet 1000 ZBs that Larry Johnson is gonna go before McGahee for the reason that you stated "The first round is not a round for gambles"

clumping platelets
04-26-2003, 05:46 AM
So I guess what ingtar is saying: "Trade down in rd 1 TD" :cool:

The Spaz
04-26-2003, 06:13 AM
Tome Donahoe and Co. know exactly who's going to be there and if there worth drafting or moving down or a possible player they would like to move up to secure there shot with them. I'm not worried every year someone says it's a poor draft but there are always diamonds in the rough. If you have the right people like we do in Buffalo chances are pretty high you'll get a couple of diamonds. Go Bills!

Captain gameboy
04-26-2003, 06:41 AM
I can't follow the lineman too closely, but is this the worst running back crop in history or what?
I can't believe every good div I rb didn't come out this year to get in this thing. It's pitiful at that position.

DraftBoy
04-26-2003, 08:23 AM
I agree with Ignstar about Leftwich being one of the only solid bluechippers to make an impact, But I see the Bungals making Palmer strike 3 on there QB picks.

Ingtar33
04-26-2003, 08:49 AM
Well, I’m in the office this morning, got a cup of coffee, reading the paper, and wishing I could watch this one with the rest of you.

Venus, I never said anything about rounds 2-7... I think what you see in this draft is 5-15players are actual 1st round talent... the second half of round one through round three are basically interchangeable round 2-3 talent... the rest of the draft is a little on the thin side, but nothing exceptionally bad.

When I was talking about a poor draft I was saying that there are almost no "blue-chip" players... and the handful of blue-chips in this draft are major question marks. Here are 11 guys who have a chance to be a potential top 10 picks in this draft, in no particular order.

Palmer, a guy who's played 8 good games in 5 years of football... after the OC dumbed down the offense to the point he didn't have to read the D anymore.
Leftwich, would have been the 1st QB taken in last years draft... heck the best QB prospect to come out in years. Problem is he has a history of injuries, and isn't a prototypical scrambler. I guess the league isn’t ready for a Black pocket QB. :rolleyes:
Rogers, very good WR... not much special though, he would normally be a mid round talent in a deeper draft... this year he grades out as the most "sure" thing of the picks
Johnson, A WR who has better physical tools than Rogers, yet doesn't look as comfortable catching the ball. He received an identical grade to Ashlie Lelie in my book (admittedly, I thought Lelie was a 2nd round talent, and actually blew that one big time).
Kennedy, The biggest DT to come out of the draft in years... is also the best DL in this draft, wouldn't even be one of the top two DLmen picked today.
Suggs, Great pass rusher, slower than molasses... heck the next guy on this list had a faster 40 time (and outweighs him by 80 or 90 pounds). You have to wonder how a speed rusher can succeed in the NFL without any speed (his one game against a good OT he was shut down completely).
Robertson, Fairly good DT, If you just look at his combine numbers. Plays a little "small" for his size, and never produced last year. That’s right, this is a guy who has never had more than 5 sacks in a season, and was basically unseen all season long. Very over-rated.
Newman, I covered earlier... he's a mid to late first round talent, nothing special.
Boller, the worst QB of the top 6... for some reason he's the only one of the bottom four to be graded out in the first round. This is a guy who finished college with a sub 50% completion percentage, even this year he only just threw for 50%. He's a mediocre QB with an outstanding arm and good mobility (sounds like RJ to me).
Trufant, An average CB, who would have gone anywhere from picks 25-45 most years... this year could be a top 15 pick... enough said.
Gross, he' a good OT, nothing spectacular. He also couldn't hold Mike Williams' jock. This is a guy who last year would have fallen through the first round, and landed in the top of the 2nd round.

Hmm I think we have a problem with this draft, unless you need a QB, the vast majority of the guys you're taking in the first could easily be 2nd rounders... even funnier, those QBs, who actually represent 1st round talent should be available in the 2nd round :rolleyes:

The Spaz
04-26-2003, 08:56 AM
Good call on Palmer being a top 10 pick seeing he already signed with the Bungles...lol:)! Go Bills!

Gunzlingr
04-26-2003, 10:39 AM
"Mr. Davis, Mr. Donohoe from the Bills is on the phone" :D

JefftheBillsfan
04-26-2003, 10:43 AM
great thread, great points. this draft is weak, but it means its weak for all the teams, not just us. so im not worried.

justasportsfan
04-26-2003, 11:00 AM
I bet the reason why we still have Watson is because we will trade him to the Lions for their first.