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Reading the posts here the last couple of days about Crowell and Peters, I now know where to go to find some of the folks who believe that the CIA brought down the Twin Towers, a rocket hit the Pentagon, Louisiana Democrats knocked down the levees in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina, and that the US Air Force has been keeping dead bodies of aliens from outer space on ice in Area 54.
Let me try, at least, to inject a tiny bit of sanity into the debate before the “blame Bills management at all costs” conspiracy advocates convince everyone here to start scanning the skies for “the black helicopters” and that the fly-over scheduled to take place before Sunday’s game is part of a plot by the Bills’ front office to destroy the team’s ability to win games this season.
Regarding Angelo Crowell:
Did it ever dawn on anyone to take a look at this situation straight-forwardly? Sometimes the most simple and straight-forward explanation ends up being far closer to the truth than any complex conspiracy theory.
Fact: We know that Angelo Crowell has had a problem with his knee before, but that he was able to play with it last season and start all 16 games of the season.
Fact: We also know that Crowell had to have the knee drained and that it was a problem that caused him to miss time during training camp.
Fact: Angelo Crowell’s older brother, who played with the Lions, had injury issues that cut short his career after he was unable to recover his previous form following surgery.
Fact: We also know that Crowell is entering the last year of his contract and that the better he plays this season, the better the contract offers that he is likely to get on the free agent market after the season—or from the Bills if they were to try to re-sign him.
Fact: There has been little news coming from Crowell or out of One Bills Drive that the Bills have or are making any sustained effort to re-sign Crowell.
Fact: The outside linebacker position, particularly in a Tampa 2 defense, is one of the easiest to fill. Outside linebackers can come in from the draft, start and be quite productive as rookies.
Fact: Keith Ellison may not be an All-Pro or even a former Pro-Bowler, he came into this season as one of the better back-up outside linebackers available to the Bills. Those who refuse to accept this simply refuse to understand that back-up linebackers are expected to not only be able to step into the lineup to sub for or replace the starter, but they must also be willing and able to play special teams. There aren’t that many former starters, let alone former Pro-Bowl quality linebackers who are available at any time. Few of them are willing to come into a situation where they know that they will be a back-up and fewer still (try closer to none) who would be willing to play special teams. Unlike an untested rookie selected in the last draft, Keith Ellison is a young veteran back-up who has been a starter in each of his first two seasons. Just exactly how many veteran outside linebackers with starting experience who have been willing and able contributors on special teams were available—and not looking to be given a clear-cut shot at being a starter—were available to the Bills this past offseason?
Fact: No NFL team can force a player to have surgery if he does not want to have surgery. The only way that a team can even pressure a player that its medical staff feels should have surgery is by placing the player on the PUP list if the player fails his physical or on one of the IR lists if the injury becomes serious enough to require surgery after he has passed his initial physical.
Fact: By placing a player on one of the injured reserve lists, the team is obligated to pay not only his salary, but the cost of his medical treatment.
Fact: Team doctors are medical doctors, who have their licenses to protect. The Bills doctors, after the K.Everett recovery, also now have considerable reputations to protect. While the team certainly pays them well, as it now stands, these MDs are now in a position to make considerably more money over the rest of their careers in consulting fees based on the way that they treated Everett and his miraculous recovery. That is not something that most intelligent people would casually put at risk.
Fact: According to Chris Kelsay, ‘“I saw him in the training room this morning waiting for doc. He wasn’t at meetings and I didn’t see him at practice. So I didn’t know what to think or how to diagnose it, but evidently he has and he’s going to have surgery.”
http://www.buffalobills.com/news/news.jsp?news_id=6531
This last statement, while seemingly overlooked, is particularly relevant. Particularly in light of subsequent events and Chris Brown’s report that Crowell is now seeking a second opinion before having surgery (http://buffalobills.com/blog/index.jsp?post_id=3977 )
Rather than present you with some grand conspiracy theory, consider the following:
1.) Angelo Crowell had swelling on his knee prior to last season, but managed to play the whole season with it and had a pretty good season. In the offseason, the knee began to feel better and, knowing that he was going into a contract year, he decided not to have surgery on the knee, figuring that he could make it through this season the way he did last year and that, if he had surgery and things didn’t work out well, the effects of the surgery could have a negative impact on his play (remember that Angelo Crowell’s older brother had injury issues and never was really able to come back and play effectively after he had surgery).
2.) Crowell makes it through the OTAs in reasonable well, so there is no reason for the Bills to think that they really need to go out and bring in anyone else because they already have Keith Ellison on the squad and they are looking at developing Alvin Bowen and Marcus Buggs this season.
3.) Crowell comes to training camp and his knee swells up. The Bills’ doctors examine the knee and, according to some reports, the Bills want Crowell to have surgery done then, so that he will have time to recover before the season starts or at least is too far along. But, Crowell decides that he still doesn’t want to have surgery for the same reasons that he didn’t have surgery during the offseason (remember that his older brother was never able to come back fully from the surgeries that he had).
4.) Crowell tries to “tough it out” like Shawnee Merriman, but it gets to the point where he just has to go see the “doc”—remember what Kelsay said about seeing Crowell in the training room waiting for the doc: a player doesn’t see “the doc” unless he, himself, asks to see the team doctor or the trainers feel that it is something going on with the player that needs to be seen by the doctor. The trainers would not have recommended that Crowell see the team doctor unless there was something new that they had found with the knee. And, Crowell, who had already tried to play through the injury, would not have asked to see “the doc” unless he was experiencing more pain in the knee than he had been experiencing previously.
5.) If Crowell were trying to screw the team by going in to see the team doctor three days before the season, that would be the wrong way to go about doing it: because, if the report that the team wanted him to have surgery earlier is true, then, the doctor, having his medical license to protect (which is far more important to him than his association with the team), could hardly be expected to do anything different than he already had done, which was to recommend surgery, but still allow Crowell to play if he didn’t opt for the surgery. The notion that Crowell decided to see the team doctor or opted for surgery three games before Opening Day as a bargaining ploy in seeking a new contract from the team is completely undercut by the report that Crowell is now seeking a second opinion on whether he needs surgery.
6.) While reports that some Bills officials were upset with Crowell are undoubtedly true (why wouldn’t they be if the team had recommended that he have surgery earlier?), the notion that the Bills put Crowell on IR in order to somehow screw him or save money is also undercut by the fact that they still will have to pay him while he is on IR and will have to pay his medical bills. Paying someone who works for you not to work, but to have surgery that you are going to pay for, but will not benefit from, so that he will be able to be healthy when he goes to another team hardly constitutes “screwing him”!
7.) A far more likely scenario would be that, while practicing, Crowell further aggravated his original injury—which, if some reports are true, would have required just 2-4 weeks of rehab before he would be able to play again—causing Crowell or the team’s trainers to arrange to see the team doctor. The doctor examined the knee, found it in worse condition than it had been previously, and concluded that Crowell should not be allowed to play on it and should have immediate surgery—a more extensive surgery, with a longer rehab time, than had originally been recommended. While Crowell again demurred and wanted to get a second opinion, with the doctor telling the team that he did not feel that Crowell should play on the knee and that getting a second opinion and rehabbing the knee after surgery would cause Crowell to miss at least a third to a half of the season, the Bills decided to place Crowell on one of the injured reserve lists (nothing has come out about which list they placed him on yet).
8.) If the Bills team doctor concluded, after examining Crowell, that he could not clear Crowell to play unless he had surgery—something that we will may never know because of HIPA rules—for insurance reasons the team could not allow him to play unless he waived his insurance coverage (he would then have to get coverage on his own—something that Merriman may have gotten when he was drafted, but that Crowell, who was drafted much lower probably did not get at the time), something that he and his agent would be very unlikely to do.
9.) If the team doctor also told the team that Crowell would need 4-6 weeks of rehab following surgery before he would be ready to start playing again and Crowell indicated that he would like to get a second opinion, then, the Bills front office and coaching staff probably did a little bit of simple arithmetic: Crowell would miss 1.) the Seattle game and possibly the Jacksonville game while getting a second opinion before surgery, 2.) a third game recovering from surgery if he requires more than just an arthroscopic procedure, and, 3.) if reports are correct, an additional 4-6 weeks rehabbing the knee before he could begin to practice or play. In short, Crowell would miss a minimum of 6-7 games and perhaps as many as 9-10. That is more than a third and perhaps more than a half of the season. And, that’s not factoring in how well Crowell would be able to play after rehabbing from his surgery.
Why, then, would the Bills place Crowell on IR?
10.) At this point, even if they reach an injury settlement and release him after six games the most that they would save is $ 1.3 million and Crowell would, undoubtedly, want a portion—probably half—as his injury settlement. Additionally, signing a replacement for him would take up most of the rest of those savings—even a Blake Costanzo, who has been in the league a couple of seasons, is going to cost the vet minimum for his service time. So, placing Crowell on IR isn’t going to save the team much of anything in terms of money. And, if they weren’t that interested in re-signing him before this, why would they be all that concerned about driving down his market value for some other team? If they thought that he could play, why not let him play—they are going to have to pay him anyway?
11.) The most likely reason that the Bills put Crowell on IR is simply that they decided that they do not want to play close to or more than half of the season a man short, not knowing whether Crowell will be able to play up to his usual standards once he is able to play again. Now, that’s a pretty straight-forward reason that makes football sense.
If the Bills knew that Crowell had a bad knee, why didn’t they draft or bring in another LB to replace him?
12.) Simple. They didn’t bring in a veteran LB in free agency 1.) because they had Crowell, Posluzny and Mitchell as their starters and a young veteran with starting experience in Ellison and it is pretty hard to convince a starting quality player at any position to come in when it is hard to convince him that he is going to get much playing time and will have to play special teams and 2.) they had Ellison to back-up Crowell—a guy who wouldn’t complain about playing special teams and getting limited playing time.
13.) They probably felt, as Crowell did, that he could make it through this season and that, this being his contract year, he would play well. With Ellison to back him up this year, they could either develop a replacement for him this season or draft someone to replace him early on in next year’s draft.
14.) They did draft an outside linebacker, Alvin Bowen, to groom as a possible replacement for Crowell. Bowen was a middle round pick—a guy who was productive in college, but not seen as a top level NFL prospect, but so was Crowell. If you recall, Crowell spent a year on the PS and playing special teams before he was ready for any significant playing time, too (in fact, Crowell didn’t start to blossom until his third season—need I remind anyone that this is just Ellison’s third season?). How could the Bills know that Bowen would tear up his knee so quickly and be lost for the season? And, even if they had known that he would, by then it was too late to really bring in anyone worth bringing in (more about that below!).
Of course, all of this is too simple for the conspiracy theorists who have to find some way to blame the Bills management and front office for any and every little thing that goes wrong for the team, no matter how convoluted the explanation has to be. To them, everyone associated with the team is stupid, cheap, greedy and out to screw the fans by putting the worst team possible out on the field.
I don’t particularly like Ralph Wilson. I’ve never met the man, but what I have seen of him over the years doesn’t engender any warm fuzzy feelings for him and I do blame him for a lot of the things that he has done over the years that have hurt the team. Still, I find myself having to constantly having to defend Wilson and the Bills organization (which has also left much to be desired) on this messageboard from the constant rantings of people who appear to be so convinced that Wilson is the image of evil incarnate that they will seemingly go to any lengths to blame Wilson and/or the organization for everything wrong before taking the time to rationally examine a situation and try to figure out what is the most likely and logical explanation. Sad.
Regarding Jason Peters:
Let’s see: the latest conspiracy theory (which I won’t even honor with a quote) has the Bills making a last minute call to Peters after the Crowell injury offering to make a deal with him if he reports (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showthread.php?t=159825 ).
The last time I checked, that offer was on the table at the start of training camp and, according to all reports, Peters and his agent didn’t even bother to respond to it. So, why would they respond to it now?
Because Crowell is on IR and the Bills now may have more interest in renegotiating Peters’ contract or money to do so? Absurd. The Bills still have to pay Crowell and pay for his medical bills while he is on IR. At most, they may end up saving under $ 500,000 if they come to an injury settlement with Crowell. That will hardly impress Peters or his agent. Besides which, in the interim the Bills have hardened their stance on wanting Peters to play under his current contract this season. The fact that Peters is reporting a day before the Opening Game, so that he won’t be able to play, but also won’t get docked a paycheck, will hardly make the team want to soften that position now.
A far more plausible explanation is that Parker knows that he has already inflicted the maximum amount of damage possible on the organization without doing that much harm to his client’s income. If he holds Peters out any longer, though, Peters will start to lose serious money very quickly and the Bills will be in a much better position to go after the signing bonus money that they gave to Peters when he signed his extension a couple of years ago.
While I doubt that Parker will concede that Peters reporting means that his holdout strategy failed, I do think that the bad press that he and Peters have gotten recently in major sporting publications has had an impact on the decision to have Peters end his holdout. Contrary to what happened when Parker had some of his other clients hold out, the Peters holdout did not get a lot of play in the major media and, when it started to recently, the Bills got very little blame, while the media almost universally blasted Peters for holding out. Not good from Parker’s perspective.
With the Bills apparently willing to bite the bullet and go through the season without Jason Peters and the major media backing them against Peters, Parker’s negotiating position was only getting weaker and having Peters continue his holdout would only result in his client losing a significant amount of money. There was no reason, then, for Peters not to report and play this season. Particularly since a good year by Peters would put him in a much better bargaining position down the road, if the Bills are unwilling to offer the kinds of numbers that Parker wants for his client.
With pretty much everyone backing them and no serious outcry from the majority of their fans or the major sports media for them to cave in to Peters, there was no reason for the Bills to do anything different from what they have been doing this offseason to entice Peters to report. So, why do anything?
If anything, the Crowell situation may have strengthened their hand towards Peters, whether they intended it to or not. Placing Crowell on IR—after issuing the initial reports that it might not take that long for Crowell to rehab, that some in the front office were ticked at him for waiting until 3 days before the season to have surgery, etc.—may well have helped to convince Parker that the Bills were serious about playing the season without Peters. It might have even raised a concern that the team would indeed go after Peters’ signing bonus, as some reports indicated they might, and that they might even put Peters on the PUP list if he waited until Week 10 to report—which might cost his client even more money. But, of course, this is nothing more than speculation at best.
IMHO, Peters is reporting now because Parker came to the conclusion that he has done everything that he can to show the organization that he is serious about wanting them to renegotiate Peters’ contract at the least amount of cost to his client. Having done that and seeing that there is little sympathy for his client in the media or amongst the Bills’ fan base (even those who think, as I do, that Peters deserves to get paid more believe that he has gone about getting a new deal the wrong way), there is no further reason for Peters to continue his holdout. Indeed, continuing the holdout might only serve to put off some of the potential suitors for Peters’ services down the road if the Bills aren’t willing to ante up what Parker wants for his client.
Simple. Straight-forward. And, strictly business.
The Bills Are Too Cheap/Stupid To Sign Colvin or Gold, etc.:
The Bills lose Crowell. So, what happens on the BillsZone messageboard? There is a flood of posts 1.) blaming the Bills for not signing a starting quality linebacker in free agency to back-up Crowell (see my answers to this above) , 2.) demanding that the Bills sign immediately sign a veteran free agent LB like Ian Gold or Roosevelt Colvin and 3.) tarring the Bills for being too stupid/cheap to sign Gold or Colvin when they bring in Blake Costanzo instead.
Predictable. But, utterly inane.
Why?
I’ve already addressed in my comments above why the Bills didn’t try to bring in a veteran in free agency after they signed Mitchell and probably wouldn’t have been able to attract one to the team if they had, but let me reiterate them briefly
. Think about this: Spencer Johnson left Minnesota because he wanted to have a chance to start. Do you think that Johnson is the only free agent who goes into free agency looking for a place to start? Most free agents do. And, with the Bills already having Poz, Mitchell and Crowell, there was little chance that a free agent would see much of a chance to beat them and Ellison out for playing time. So, why sign with the Bills? To play special teams? Most starters and players who have been starters around the league don’t play special teams or don’t want to play special teams. But, the fourth and fifth linebackers on a team are expected to play special teams. So, again, why sign with the Bills if you aren’t that keen on playing special teams or aren’t that good at it?
OK. So, why not go out and sign Gold or Colvin now that Crowell is hurt instead of a guy who sounds like he belongs in a re-run of Seinfeld?
It is a couple of days before kickoff of the Opening Game. Gold, Colvin and anyone else that you might bring in is not going to be ready to step into the starting lineup—none of them has been with the team, you don’t know what kind of shape they are in, and they haven’t even had a chance to practice with the team yet. There isn’t even enough time before the game to have them get in a practice. So, Ellison is going to have to start, regardless.
Which means…whoever you sign is going to have to play special teams on Sunday. You know that Costanzo not only can and will play special teams, but that he knows and has played on the Bills special teams. That cannot be said about anyone else that you bring in from the outside.
So, what about bringing in Gold or Colvin or someone else after the Seattle game?
Well, that’s a fair enough question. Let’s look at the possibilities that have been raised:
Roosevelt Colvin—To begin with, Colvin is a 3-4 OLB not a Tampa 2 OLB. Tampa 2 OLBs have to be quick and fast because they have pass coverage responsibilities and a larger area of the field to cover. A 3-4 OLB can be bigger and slower because they have less pass coverage responsibilities and a smaller area to cover when they are in coverage. For the most part, Colvin was used as a pass rushing specialist in the 3-4, particularly in recent years. The Bills don’t blitz their LBs much and when they do, it is expected that Mitchell and Posluzny will be their primary blitzing LBs. Contrary to what some here seem to believe, Colvin was a DE when he played with Chicago and he had some difficulty holding up against the run as an undersized DE. One of the reasons that the Bears let Colvin go was that he was unable to make the transition to OLB in their Tampa 2 scheme. What makes anyone think that Colvin will be more effective playing OLB in a Tampa 2 scheme now, when he is older and slower than he was then?
Speaking of Colvin being older and slower, that is the reason that the Pats let him go. Houston picked him up in the offseason for their 3-4 defense, but cut him. The reason cited by HC Gary Kubiak was that the Texans preferred to keep a player who could contribute on special teams over Colvin ( http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/...t/5974029.html ). That’s likely to be another reason why the Bills won’t be interested in Colvin: if he isn’t fast enough to beat out Ellison in their T-2 scheme, he won’t be any help on special teams either.
Ian Gold—Has it dawned on anyone here to ask why it is that the other, supposedly smarter, 31 teams in the NFL have also chosen to pass on Gold, a former Pro-Bowler? Is it possible that there is a reason that no team has signed him yet? Well, in fact, there is a reason. And, that reason is the reason that the reigning Super Bowl champions, the New York Giants, passed on signing Gold after they brought him in this offseason after they lost Reggie Torbor and Kawika Mitchell: Gold has an extremely bad knee. According to what was reported in the NY papers at the time, it is a bone on bone deal. The Giants chose to go with Danny Clark and Gerris Wilkson with Chase Blackburn first off their bench in defending their title rather than sign Gold. They aren’t the only ones who have passed on Gold for the same reason. What makes anyone think that signing with the Bills will make Gold’s knee any better?
Victor Hobson—This is a guy that I thought that the Bills might be interested in going into free agency. He played in a Tampa 2 style defense in college and was very productive with the Jets before Mangini arrived and they adopted the 3-4 system. Like a number of the Jets’ defenders, he hated the switch and wasn’t nearly as productive playing in the 3-4. He couldn’t wait to get out of New York. Even though he was hurt at the end of last season, I really thought that the Bills might be interested in him and I was surprised that they weren’t. When the Pats signed him, I couldn’t help thinking “Uh-oh. There they go again, waiting everyone out and getting a good player cheap”. But, then, the Pats let him go early on. That really surprised me because the Pats don’t usually make a lot of personnel mistakes and they really needed to add some speed to their defense. And, then, no one pick up Hobson. Why?
I don’t know much about Hobson’s physical condition, let alone about the injury he suffered at the end of last season. I do know that the Pats tried switching him to ILB before they let him go, but not much more than that. I also don’t know if Hobson can or is willing to play special teams—something that may have been a factor in his release by New England. I think he played special teams as a rookie with the Jets, but I don’t recall if he played on them after he broke into their starting lineup.
If the Bills do look at bringing in another linebacker to back up or compete with Keith Ellison, Victor Hobson is the only one available right now that I would even think would be a reasonable possibility. I think it would depend on whether he is healthy and willing to play on special teams if he doesn’t unseat Ellison as the starter. Hobson has had some productive years with the Jets, but it is not a “slam dunk” that he would be able to beat out Ellison at OLB in the Bills Tampa 2 defense after playing a couple of years in the 3-4 and perhaps adding some bulk to do so. He might be worth a look, certainly a phone call, but there is no way that he would be ready to play for the Bills this weekend in any event, so it makes no sense to scream for the Bills to sign him, let alone assume that he would be willing or able to help them anytime soon.
With Hobson as the only available veteran outside linebacker who might—and I underscore, might—be able to challenge Keith Ellison for playing time this season if he is fully healthy and willing to take his chances on playing time and playing special teams if he comes to the Bills, it is possible that the Bills may decide to give the linebackers that they currently have a chance to show what they can do. Why? Not because they are stupid or cheap, but because 31 other teams—some with less talent at linebacker than the Bills—have chosen to pass on Hobson for some reason as well. And they may feel that that reason is sufficient for them to give the young guys they have a chance to play instead.
Again, a simple, straight-forward, football decision.
I know that some of those who have posted the most hysterical threads of the last couple of weeks will probably not even bother to read this entire post. Others will simply dismiss it as “yet another excuse” for what they see as a continuation of insufferable mismanagement (which at times has been the case). But, I hope that most of you who have taken the time to read all of this will be open-minded enough to appreciate the notion that, sometimes, if you take the time to look at a situation and examine it calmly and rationally—instead of immediately drawing conclusions based on prejudices and going off half-cocked in all directions—there can be and usually is a simple, straight-forward, logical explanation for that situation.
And, if you do, I hope that you will post your thoughts and views here and not be intimidated by those who would turn everything that happens to the Bills this season into a major soap opera or convoluted conspiracy.
Finally, I wish my computer issues would let me post more often (I’m still working on them), but, unfortunately, they won’t, so I have to write even longer posts than usual to address everything I want to get to. Hopefully that will change soon!
Let me try, at least, to inject a tiny bit of sanity into the debate before the “blame Bills management at all costs” conspiracy advocates convince everyone here to start scanning the skies for “the black helicopters” and that the fly-over scheduled to take place before Sunday’s game is part of a plot by the Bills’ front office to destroy the team’s ability to win games this season.
Regarding Angelo Crowell:
Did it ever dawn on anyone to take a look at this situation straight-forwardly? Sometimes the most simple and straight-forward explanation ends up being far closer to the truth than any complex conspiracy theory.
Fact: We know that Angelo Crowell has had a problem with his knee before, but that he was able to play with it last season and start all 16 games of the season.
Fact: We also know that Crowell had to have the knee drained and that it was a problem that caused him to miss time during training camp.
Fact: Angelo Crowell’s older brother, who played with the Lions, had injury issues that cut short his career after he was unable to recover his previous form following surgery.
Fact: We also know that Crowell is entering the last year of his contract and that the better he plays this season, the better the contract offers that he is likely to get on the free agent market after the season—or from the Bills if they were to try to re-sign him.
Fact: There has been little news coming from Crowell or out of One Bills Drive that the Bills have or are making any sustained effort to re-sign Crowell.
Fact: The outside linebacker position, particularly in a Tampa 2 defense, is one of the easiest to fill. Outside linebackers can come in from the draft, start and be quite productive as rookies.
Fact: Keith Ellison may not be an All-Pro or even a former Pro-Bowler, he came into this season as one of the better back-up outside linebackers available to the Bills. Those who refuse to accept this simply refuse to understand that back-up linebackers are expected to not only be able to step into the lineup to sub for or replace the starter, but they must also be willing and able to play special teams. There aren’t that many former starters, let alone former Pro-Bowl quality linebackers who are available at any time. Few of them are willing to come into a situation where they know that they will be a back-up and fewer still (try closer to none) who would be willing to play special teams. Unlike an untested rookie selected in the last draft, Keith Ellison is a young veteran back-up who has been a starter in each of his first two seasons. Just exactly how many veteran outside linebackers with starting experience who have been willing and able contributors on special teams were available—and not looking to be given a clear-cut shot at being a starter—were available to the Bills this past offseason?
Fact: No NFL team can force a player to have surgery if he does not want to have surgery. The only way that a team can even pressure a player that its medical staff feels should have surgery is by placing the player on the PUP list if the player fails his physical or on one of the IR lists if the injury becomes serious enough to require surgery after he has passed his initial physical.
Fact: By placing a player on one of the injured reserve lists, the team is obligated to pay not only his salary, but the cost of his medical treatment.
Fact: Team doctors are medical doctors, who have their licenses to protect. The Bills doctors, after the K.Everett recovery, also now have considerable reputations to protect. While the team certainly pays them well, as it now stands, these MDs are now in a position to make considerably more money over the rest of their careers in consulting fees based on the way that they treated Everett and his miraculous recovery. That is not something that most intelligent people would casually put at risk.
Fact: According to Chris Kelsay, ‘“I saw him in the training room this morning waiting for doc. He wasn’t at meetings and I didn’t see him at practice. So I didn’t know what to think or how to diagnose it, but evidently he has and he’s going to have surgery.”
http://www.buffalobills.com/news/news.jsp?news_id=6531
This last statement, while seemingly overlooked, is particularly relevant. Particularly in light of subsequent events and Chris Brown’s report that Crowell is now seeking a second opinion before having surgery (http://buffalobills.com/blog/index.jsp?post_id=3977 )
Rather than present you with some grand conspiracy theory, consider the following:
1.) Angelo Crowell had swelling on his knee prior to last season, but managed to play the whole season with it and had a pretty good season. In the offseason, the knee began to feel better and, knowing that he was going into a contract year, he decided not to have surgery on the knee, figuring that he could make it through this season the way he did last year and that, if he had surgery and things didn’t work out well, the effects of the surgery could have a negative impact on his play (remember that Angelo Crowell’s older brother had injury issues and never was really able to come back and play effectively after he had surgery).
2.) Crowell makes it through the OTAs in reasonable well, so there is no reason for the Bills to think that they really need to go out and bring in anyone else because they already have Keith Ellison on the squad and they are looking at developing Alvin Bowen and Marcus Buggs this season.
3.) Crowell comes to training camp and his knee swells up. The Bills’ doctors examine the knee and, according to some reports, the Bills want Crowell to have surgery done then, so that he will have time to recover before the season starts or at least is too far along. But, Crowell decides that he still doesn’t want to have surgery for the same reasons that he didn’t have surgery during the offseason (remember that his older brother was never able to come back fully from the surgeries that he had).
4.) Crowell tries to “tough it out” like Shawnee Merriman, but it gets to the point where he just has to go see the “doc”—remember what Kelsay said about seeing Crowell in the training room waiting for the doc: a player doesn’t see “the doc” unless he, himself, asks to see the team doctor or the trainers feel that it is something going on with the player that needs to be seen by the doctor. The trainers would not have recommended that Crowell see the team doctor unless there was something new that they had found with the knee. And, Crowell, who had already tried to play through the injury, would not have asked to see “the doc” unless he was experiencing more pain in the knee than he had been experiencing previously.
5.) If Crowell were trying to screw the team by going in to see the team doctor three days before the season, that would be the wrong way to go about doing it: because, if the report that the team wanted him to have surgery earlier is true, then, the doctor, having his medical license to protect (which is far more important to him than his association with the team), could hardly be expected to do anything different than he already had done, which was to recommend surgery, but still allow Crowell to play if he didn’t opt for the surgery. The notion that Crowell decided to see the team doctor or opted for surgery three games before Opening Day as a bargaining ploy in seeking a new contract from the team is completely undercut by the report that Crowell is now seeking a second opinion on whether he needs surgery.
6.) While reports that some Bills officials were upset with Crowell are undoubtedly true (why wouldn’t they be if the team had recommended that he have surgery earlier?), the notion that the Bills put Crowell on IR in order to somehow screw him or save money is also undercut by the fact that they still will have to pay him while he is on IR and will have to pay his medical bills. Paying someone who works for you not to work, but to have surgery that you are going to pay for, but will not benefit from, so that he will be able to be healthy when he goes to another team hardly constitutes “screwing him”!
7.) A far more likely scenario would be that, while practicing, Crowell further aggravated his original injury—which, if some reports are true, would have required just 2-4 weeks of rehab before he would be able to play again—causing Crowell or the team’s trainers to arrange to see the team doctor. The doctor examined the knee, found it in worse condition than it had been previously, and concluded that Crowell should not be allowed to play on it and should have immediate surgery—a more extensive surgery, with a longer rehab time, than had originally been recommended. While Crowell again demurred and wanted to get a second opinion, with the doctor telling the team that he did not feel that Crowell should play on the knee and that getting a second opinion and rehabbing the knee after surgery would cause Crowell to miss at least a third to a half of the season, the Bills decided to place Crowell on one of the injured reserve lists (nothing has come out about which list they placed him on yet).
8.) If the Bills team doctor concluded, after examining Crowell, that he could not clear Crowell to play unless he had surgery—something that we will may never know because of HIPA rules—for insurance reasons the team could not allow him to play unless he waived his insurance coverage (he would then have to get coverage on his own—something that Merriman may have gotten when he was drafted, but that Crowell, who was drafted much lower probably did not get at the time), something that he and his agent would be very unlikely to do.
9.) If the team doctor also told the team that Crowell would need 4-6 weeks of rehab following surgery before he would be ready to start playing again and Crowell indicated that he would like to get a second opinion, then, the Bills front office and coaching staff probably did a little bit of simple arithmetic: Crowell would miss 1.) the Seattle game and possibly the Jacksonville game while getting a second opinion before surgery, 2.) a third game recovering from surgery if he requires more than just an arthroscopic procedure, and, 3.) if reports are correct, an additional 4-6 weeks rehabbing the knee before he could begin to practice or play. In short, Crowell would miss a minimum of 6-7 games and perhaps as many as 9-10. That is more than a third and perhaps more than a half of the season. And, that’s not factoring in how well Crowell would be able to play after rehabbing from his surgery.
Why, then, would the Bills place Crowell on IR?
10.) At this point, even if they reach an injury settlement and release him after six games the most that they would save is $ 1.3 million and Crowell would, undoubtedly, want a portion—probably half—as his injury settlement. Additionally, signing a replacement for him would take up most of the rest of those savings—even a Blake Costanzo, who has been in the league a couple of seasons, is going to cost the vet minimum for his service time. So, placing Crowell on IR isn’t going to save the team much of anything in terms of money. And, if they weren’t that interested in re-signing him before this, why would they be all that concerned about driving down his market value for some other team? If they thought that he could play, why not let him play—they are going to have to pay him anyway?
11.) The most likely reason that the Bills put Crowell on IR is simply that they decided that they do not want to play close to or more than half of the season a man short, not knowing whether Crowell will be able to play up to his usual standards once he is able to play again. Now, that’s a pretty straight-forward reason that makes football sense.
If the Bills knew that Crowell had a bad knee, why didn’t they draft or bring in another LB to replace him?
12.) Simple. They didn’t bring in a veteran LB in free agency 1.) because they had Crowell, Posluzny and Mitchell as their starters and a young veteran with starting experience in Ellison and it is pretty hard to convince a starting quality player at any position to come in when it is hard to convince him that he is going to get much playing time and will have to play special teams and 2.) they had Ellison to back-up Crowell—a guy who wouldn’t complain about playing special teams and getting limited playing time.
13.) They probably felt, as Crowell did, that he could make it through this season and that, this being his contract year, he would play well. With Ellison to back him up this year, they could either develop a replacement for him this season or draft someone to replace him early on in next year’s draft.
14.) They did draft an outside linebacker, Alvin Bowen, to groom as a possible replacement for Crowell. Bowen was a middle round pick—a guy who was productive in college, but not seen as a top level NFL prospect, but so was Crowell. If you recall, Crowell spent a year on the PS and playing special teams before he was ready for any significant playing time, too (in fact, Crowell didn’t start to blossom until his third season—need I remind anyone that this is just Ellison’s third season?). How could the Bills know that Bowen would tear up his knee so quickly and be lost for the season? And, even if they had known that he would, by then it was too late to really bring in anyone worth bringing in (more about that below!).
Of course, all of this is too simple for the conspiracy theorists who have to find some way to blame the Bills management and front office for any and every little thing that goes wrong for the team, no matter how convoluted the explanation has to be. To them, everyone associated with the team is stupid, cheap, greedy and out to screw the fans by putting the worst team possible out on the field.
I don’t particularly like Ralph Wilson. I’ve never met the man, but what I have seen of him over the years doesn’t engender any warm fuzzy feelings for him and I do blame him for a lot of the things that he has done over the years that have hurt the team. Still, I find myself having to constantly having to defend Wilson and the Bills organization (which has also left much to be desired) on this messageboard from the constant rantings of people who appear to be so convinced that Wilson is the image of evil incarnate that they will seemingly go to any lengths to blame Wilson and/or the organization for everything wrong before taking the time to rationally examine a situation and try to figure out what is the most likely and logical explanation. Sad.
Regarding Jason Peters:
Let’s see: the latest conspiracy theory (which I won’t even honor with a quote) has the Bills making a last minute call to Peters after the Crowell injury offering to make a deal with him if he reports (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showthread.php?t=159825 ).
The last time I checked, that offer was on the table at the start of training camp and, according to all reports, Peters and his agent didn’t even bother to respond to it. So, why would they respond to it now?
Because Crowell is on IR and the Bills now may have more interest in renegotiating Peters’ contract or money to do so? Absurd. The Bills still have to pay Crowell and pay for his medical bills while he is on IR. At most, they may end up saving under $ 500,000 if they come to an injury settlement with Crowell. That will hardly impress Peters or his agent. Besides which, in the interim the Bills have hardened their stance on wanting Peters to play under his current contract this season. The fact that Peters is reporting a day before the Opening Game, so that he won’t be able to play, but also won’t get docked a paycheck, will hardly make the team want to soften that position now.
A far more plausible explanation is that Parker knows that he has already inflicted the maximum amount of damage possible on the organization without doing that much harm to his client’s income. If he holds Peters out any longer, though, Peters will start to lose serious money very quickly and the Bills will be in a much better position to go after the signing bonus money that they gave to Peters when he signed his extension a couple of years ago.
While I doubt that Parker will concede that Peters reporting means that his holdout strategy failed, I do think that the bad press that he and Peters have gotten recently in major sporting publications has had an impact on the decision to have Peters end his holdout. Contrary to what happened when Parker had some of his other clients hold out, the Peters holdout did not get a lot of play in the major media and, when it started to recently, the Bills got very little blame, while the media almost universally blasted Peters for holding out. Not good from Parker’s perspective.
With the Bills apparently willing to bite the bullet and go through the season without Jason Peters and the major media backing them against Peters, Parker’s negotiating position was only getting weaker and having Peters continue his holdout would only result in his client losing a significant amount of money. There was no reason, then, for Peters not to report and play this season. Particularly since a good year by Peters would put him in a much better bargaining position down the road, if the Bills are unwilling to offer the kinds of numbers that Parker wants for his client.
With pretty much everyone backing them and no serious outcry from the majority of their fans or the major sports media for them to cave in to Peters, there was no reason for the Bills to do anything different from what they have been doing this offseason to entice Peters to report. So, why do anything?
If anything, the Crowell situation may have strengthened their hand towards Peters, whether they intended it to or not. Placing Crowell on IR—after issuing the initial reports that it might not take that long for Crowell to rehab, that some in the front office were ticked at him for waiting until 3 days before the season to have surgery, etc.—may well have helped to convince Parker that the Bills were serious about playing the season without Peters. It might have even raised a concern that the team would indeed go after Peters’ signing bonus, as some reports indicated they might, and that they might even put Peters on the PUP list if he waited until Week 10 to report—which might cost his client even more money. But, of course, this is nothing more than speculation at best.
IMHO, Peters is reporting now because Parker came to the conclusion that he has done everything that he can to show the organization that he is serious about wanting them to renegotiate Peters’ contract at the least amount of cost to his client. Having done that and seeing that there is little sympathy for his client in the media or amongst the Bills’ fan base (even those who think, as I do, that Peters deserves to get paid more believe that he has gone about getting a new deal the wrong way), there is no further reason for Peters to continue his holdout. Indeed, continuing the holdout might only serve to put off some of the potential suitors for Peters’ services down the road if the Bills aren’t willing to ante up what Parker wants for his client.
Simple. Straight-forward. And, strictly business.
The Bills Are Too Cheap/Stupid To Sign Colvin or Gold, etc.:
The Bills lose Crowell. So, what happens on the BillsZone messageboard? There is a flood of posts 1.) blaming the Bills for not signing a starting quality linebacker in free agency to back-up Crowell (see my answers to this above) , 2.) demanding that the Bills sign immediately sign a veteran free agent LB like Ian Gold or Roosevelt Colvin and 3.) tarring the Bills for being too stupid/cheap to sign Gold or Colvin when they bring in Blake Costanzo instead.
Predictable. But, utterly inane.
Why?
I’ve already addressed in my comments above why the Bills didn’t try to bring in a veteran in free agency after they signed Mitchell and probably wouldn’t have been able to attract one to the team if they had, but let me reiterate them briefly
. Think about this: Spencer Johnson left Minnesota because he wanted to have a chance to start. Do you think that Johnson is the only free agent who goes into free agency looking for a place to start? Most free agents do. And, with the Bills already having Poz, Mitchell and Crowell, there was little chance that a free agent would see much of a chance to beat them and Ellison out for playing time. So, why sign with the Bills? To play special teams? Most starters and players who have been starters around the league don’t play special teams or don’t want to play special teams. But, the fourth and fifth linebackers on a team are expected to play special teams. So, again, why sign with the Bills if you aren’t that keen on playing special teams or aren’t that good at it?
OK. So, why not go out and sign Gold or Colvin now that Crowell is hurt instead of a guy who sounds like he belongs in a re-run of Seinfeld?
It is a couple of days before kickoff of the Opening Game. Gold, Colvin and anyone else that you might bring in is not going to be ready to step into the starting lineup—none of them has been with the team, you don’t know what kind of shape they are in, and they haven’t even had a chance to practice with the team yet. There isn’t even enough time before the game to have them get in a practice. So, Ellison is going to have to start, regardless.
Which means…whoever you sign is going to have to play special teams on Sunday. You know that Costanzo not only can and will play special teams, but that he knows and has played on the Bills special teams. That cannot be said about anyone else that you bring in from the outside.
So, what about bringing in Gold or Colvin or someone else after the Seattle game?
Well, that’s a fair enough question. Let’s look at the possibilities that have been raised:
Roosevelt Colvin—To begin with, Colvin is a 3-4 OLB not a Tampa 2 OLB. Tampa 2 OLBs have to be quick and fast because they have pass coverage responsibilities and a larger area of the field to cover. A 3-4 OLB can be bigger and slower because they have less pass coverage responsibilities and a smaller area to cover when they are in coverage. For the most part, Colvin was used as a pass rushing specialist in the 3-4, particularly in recent years. The Bills don’t blitz their LBs much and when they do, it is expected that Mitchell and Posluzny will be their primary blitzing LBs. Contrary to what some here seem to believe, Colvin was a DE when he played with Chicago and he had some difficulty holding up against the run as an undersized DE. One of the reasons that the Bears let Colvin go was that he was unable to make the transition to OLB in their Tampa 2 scheme. What makes anyone think that Colvin will be more effective playing OLB in a Tampa 2 scheme now, when he is older and slower than he was then?
Speaking of Colvin being older and slower, that is the reason that the Pats let him go. Houston picked him up in the offseason for their 3-4 defense, but cut him. The reason cited by HC Gary Kubiak was that the Texans preferred to keep a player who could contribute on special teams over Colvin ( http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/...t/5974029.html ). That’s likely to be another reason why the Bills won’t be interested in Colvin: if he isn’t fast enough to beat out Ellison in their T-2 scheme, he won’t be any help on special teams either.
Ian Gold—Has it dawned on anyone here to ask why it is that the other, supposedly smarter, 31 teams in the NFL have also chosen to pass on Gold, a former Pro-Bowler? Is it possible that there is a reason that no team has signed him yet? Well, in fact, there is a reason. And, that reason is the reason that the reigning Super Bowl champions, the New York Giants, passed on signing Gold after they brought him in this offseason after they lost Reggie Torbor and Kawika Mitchell: Gold has an extremely bad knee. According to what was reported in the NY papers at the time, it is a bone on bone deal. The Giants chose to go with Danny Clark and Gerris Wilkson with Chase Blackburn first off their bench in defending their title rather than sign Gold. They aren’t the only ones who have passed on Gold for the same reason. What makes anyone think that signing with the Bills will make Gold’s knee any better?
Victor Hobson—This is a guy that I thought that the Bills might be interested in going into free agency. He played in a Tampa 2 style defense in college and was very productive with the Jets before Mangini arrived and they adopted the 3-4 system. Like a number of the Jets’ defenders, he hated the switch and wasn’t nearly as productive playing in the 3-4. He couldn’t wait to get out of New York. Even though he was hurt at the end of last season, I really thought that the Bills might be interested in him and I was surprised that they weren’t. When the Pats signed him, I couldn’t help thinking “Uh-oh. There they go again, waiting everyone out and getting a good player cheap”. But, then, the Pats let him go early on. That really surprised me because the Pats don’t usually make a lot of personnel mistakes and they really needed to add some speed to their defense. And, then, no one pick up Hobson. Why?
I don’t know much about Hobson’s physical condition, let alone about the injury he suffered at the end of last season. I do know that the Pats tried switching him to ILB before they let him go, but not much more than that. I also don’t know if Hobson can or is willing to play special teams—something that may have been a factor in his release by New England. I think he played special teams as a rookie with the Jets, but I don’t recall if he played on them after he broke into their starting lineup.
If the Bills do look at bringing in another linebacker to back up or compete with Keith Ellison, Victor Hobson is the only one available right now that I would even think would be a reasonable possibility. I think it would depend on whether he is healthy and willing to play on special teams if he doesn’t unseat Ellison as the starter. Hobson has had some productive years with the Jets, but it is not a “slam dunk” that he would be able to beat out Ellison at OLB in the Bills Tampa 2 defense after playing a couple of years in the 3-4 and perhaps adding some bulk to do so. He might be worth a look, certainly a phone call, but there is no way that he would be ready to play for the Bills this weekend in any event, so it makes no sense to scream for the Bills to sign him, let alone assume that he would be willing or able to help them anytime soon.
With Hobson as the only available veteran outside linebacker who might—and I underscore, might—be able to challenge Keith Ellison for playing time this season if he is fully healthy and willing to take his chances on playing time and playing special teams if he comes to the Bills, it is possible that the Bills may decide to give the linebackers that they currently have a chance to show what they can do. Why? Not because they are stupid or cheap, but because 31 other teams—some with less talent at linebacker than the Bills—have chosen to pass on Hobson for some reason as well. And they may feel that that reason is sufficient for them to give the young guys they have a chance to play instead.
Again, a simple, straight-forward, football decision.
I know that some of those who have posted the most hysterical threads of the last couple of weeks will probably not even bother to read this entire post. Others will simply dismiss it as “yet another excuse” for what they see as a continuation of insufferable mismanagement (which at times has been the case). But, I hope that most of you who have taken the time to read all of this will be open-minded enough to appreciate the notion that, sometimes, if you take the time to look at a situation and examine it calmly and rationally—instead of immediately drawing conclusions based on prejudices and going off half-cocked in all directions—there can be and usually is a simple, straight-forward, logical explanation for that situation.
And, if you do, I hope that you will post your thoughts and views here and not be intimidated by those who would turn everything that happens to the Bills this season into a major soap opera or convoluted conspiracy.
Finally, I wish my computer issues would let me post more often (I’m still working on them), but, unfortunately, they won’t, so I have to write even longer posts than usual to address everything I want to get to. Hopefully that will change soon!
Bravissimo LTBF ! Intelligent posting of the first order.
"Expect rejection, but expect more to overcome it." 
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