How is Jacksonville the favorite

[Mitchell55]

Garrard looked bad in his 1st game and Trent played great. Garrard had 215 yards and 1 TD, but also 2 INTs. Rating was only 68. Taylor had only 18 yards and buffalos D only let up 11 in the 1st half alone. They let Chris Johnson a rookie, get 15 carries for 95 yards and let White get 15 for 45 yards. Thats 30 carries for 140 yards, and Tennesse has a bad OL. Gave up 7 sacks and only had 1 sack themselves, and now they have 3 OL out. All across the board we are better, and people still like Jacksonville?




note- sorry about how its written. I tried to make something that is best suited for a list, and tried to make it into a paragraph.

[historypete]

Let them be the favorite. I prefer this team being the underdog.

Jacksonville is at home. They need to bounce back. We haven't been a great road team. The only playoff team we beat on the road recently is Washington. It is just fine with me that Jacksonville is favored. I want this team to stay under the radar for the near future.

[njsue]

Garrard looked bad in his 1st game and Trent played great. Garrard had 215 yards and 1 TD, but also 2 INTs. Rating was only 68. Taylor had only 18 yards and buffalos D only let up 11 in the 1st half alone. They let Chris Johnson a rookie, get 15 carries for 95 yards and let White get 15 for 45 yards. Thats 30 carries for 140 yards, and Tennesse has a bad OL. Gave up 7 sacks and only had 1 sack themselves, and now they have 3 OL out. All across the board we are better, and people still like Jacksonville?




note- sorry about how its written. I tried to make something that is best suited for a list, and tried to make it into a paragraph.

First of all they are playing home. Second there probably basing the team on last years records.

Lastly, Jack Delrio will have them all fired up.

[Mitchell55]

First of all they are playing home(They have one of the most quiet stadiums in the NFL). Second there probably basing the team on last years records (If thats the case, that will be bull).

Lastly, Jack Delrio will have them all fired up (True).

[jimbohastle51]

thats ok though, jax is thought to be a afc favorite so when we go in there the underdog as usual and put a whipping on them which i think we will and i dont think trent will throw for 200 yards (i think we will completely control the clock and the game, they will continuously go 3 and out without their 3 interior linemen and us bring 2wice the heat we brought last week, also we will pound the ball with peters back) i think the score will be like 21-7 or 21-10 but the stats will show us with tons more time of possession and a monster running day for lynch.

[DrGraves]

home field.

[Bone]

Your a homer, thats why.

We beat a depleted Seattle team and the Jaguars are a very,very good team some people think were going to be an amazing team when really, we haven't proved a thing. This week will let us know. Beating a playoff caliber team at there place, can the Bills do this for once? Let's hope so :gobills:

[Mitchell55]

Your a homer, thats why.

We beat a depleted Seattle team and the Jaguars are a very,very good team some people think were going to be an amazing team when really, we haven't proved a thing. This week will let us know. Beating a playoff caliber team at there place, can the Bills do this for once? Let's hope so :gobills:




Not realy a depleted team. Only 2 WRs were gone, other than that, they were healthy.

[BuffaloBillsStampede]

Their home field advantage isn't even close to a lot of teams. They are a real good team every year and rarely sell out.

[Kenny]

Not realy a depleted team. Only 2 WRs were gone, other than that, they were healthy.

And their #1 DT, and one of their Safeties, and a weaker running game.
Can you imagine how we would have done minus Stroud, Simpson, Evans, and Reed?

The Hawks are one of the most overrated teams in the league... Can you imagine if we were in a division with the Rams, Cardinals, and Niners? Automatic 6 wins right there.

[LifetimeBillsFan]

There are three reasons why Jacksonville is favored:

1.) Home field advantage is considered to be worth 3 points by the bookies. A home opener is probably worth an additional point.

2.) Jacksonville beat the Bills badly at home last season and was considered a heavy favorite to make the playoffs this season, possibly challenging Indy for the division crown. They may be banged up on offense, but the still have a pretty good defense and they are a team whose success has been based on the play of their defense, which has not given up a lot of points at home in recent years.

While the Bills started the season as a possible dark-horse candidate for a playoff berth and had an impressive showing against a depleted Seattle team at home, there are still questions about how good their offense really is, particularly since Edwards is still a relatively young, inexperienced QB and young, inexperienced QBs tend to be inconsistent and struggle on the road. The Bills have yet to show that they can beat teams considered to be better than they are or that they can play well on the road (the Washington game last season being an exception).

Then, add to that the "heat factor". Just as warm weather teams tend to struggle when they have to play in cold climates on the road in late November and December, teams from cooler climates have had a history of struggling when they have had to play on the road in the kind of hot weather that is expected in Jacksonville on Sunday. That's not to say that the Bills can't win in the heat, but the bookies will take that history into account in making their calculations on how to set the line for the game.

3.) THIS IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER: the line that you see for a game is a BETTING LINE, not simply an assessment of the relative strengths of the two teams (although that is a major factor in setting the line).

An critical factor in where the line is set is the anticipated action on the game: what amount of points will create nearly equal action on both games. The reason that the bookie/bookies (since most bookies use the same line that is set in Vegas, it is actually one guy who sets the line) use a betting line in the first place is because they don't want to go broke by having so many more people bet on one team in a game rather than the other (if they allowed that to happen and all those people won and had to be paid, they could go broke). So, they try to set the line in such a way that a nearly equal amount of money will be bet on both teams. That way, they will have sufficient money to cover the winning bets regardless of who wins. They make their money on a percentage of the action, which is figured into the spread.

While both Buffalo and Jacksonville are relatively small markets, there is more money in northern Florida than WNY and the hype that the Jags got going into the season is likely to attract more betting money on them than would be placed on the Bills. Given the factors cited in # 1 and # 2 above, might still be favored in the game to begin with, but the amount by which they are favored also reflects the action that the bookie/bookies anticipate that they will get on the game and how many points they think it will take to even the action out between those betting on Jacksonville and those betting on the Bills.

The line opened with Jacksonville favored by six. That means that someone betting on Jacksonville giving up six points: the Jags must win by seven for him to win the bet or by six for him to get a "push" and get some of his money back. That means that the bookies anticipate that there will be a lot of money being placed on Jacksonville to win the game (and win big--six is a lot of points).

However, if a lot of money starts to be bet on the Bills, the line will change and come down. That doesn't mean that the bookie/bookies suddenly think that the Bills are getting better overnight, etc. What it means is that they are adjusting the line to reflect the action on the game--to even out the money being bet on each team--so that they won't lose their shirts if the team that has attracted a lot more money should win the game.

You have to be careful when you look at the betting lines in the newspaper or on the Internet. Yes, they do reflect what the bookie/bookies see as the relative strengths of the two teams that are playing one another. But, you must also keep in mind that the line also reflects the anticipated (and on-going) betting action and the amount of money that has been bet on the two teams.

So, don't take the line personally when you see a betting line that doesn't seem to reflect the relative strengths of the two teams that will be playing in the game. Understand that there are other factors that are being reflected in that line that may make it see "out of whack" if you are just considering how good the two teams are and how well they are likely to play in the game.

This was all explained to me some time ago by someone who was intimately acquainted with how the line is set and why it is set this way.

[njsue]

thats ok though, jax is thought to be a afc favorite so when we go in there the underdog as usual and put a whipping on them which i think we will and i dont think trent will throw for 200 yards (i think we will completely control the clock and the game, they will continuously go 3 and out without their 3 interior linemen and us bring 2wice the heat we brought last week, also we will pound the ball with peters back) i think the score will be like 21-7 or 21-10 but the stats will show us with tons more time of possession and a monster running day for lynch.


They need to take Garrard down and not let him scramble around.

[Lexwhat]

WOW LTBF!

That was an amazing explanation. Thanks. I never knew that.

[SquishDaFish]

Because they are playing at home :idunno:

[Saratoga Slim]

I'm glad we're not favored. I think this team is going to play the best as long as they're not taken seriously.

[trapezeus]

i am waiting for the day when LTBF doesn't have a good post. i'm not sure it'll ever come. Again, LTBF for poster of the year.