Cardinals favored this weekend over bills by 1

[Bruce is Loose]

What is the logic for the Cards to be favored this weekend? Just cause they are at home?

[M]

What is the logic for the Cards to be favored this weekend? Just cause they are at home?

And probably because the Jets whooped their a$$ last week. They should be pi$$ed and come out swinging. I'm still picking the Bills to win though.

:gobills:

[BlackMetalNinja]

Home team always gets points, that's pretty standard. It's basically saying that if they played on a neutral field, they think Buffalo would win by 2.

[mybills]

And probably because the Jets whooped their a$$ last week. They should be pi$$ed and come out swinging. I'm still picking the Bills to win though.

:gobills:
Yup. I said that they'll be hungrier for a win if the Jets beat them. If anything, they'll come out fighting in the 2nd half, and really make this an interesting game. :up:

[Mr. Miyagi]

Everywhere I've looked the Cards are favorites in this game. Probably because they still have some big name players ala Warner, Fitzgerald, and James.

That's fine with me. I like being the underdog. :up:

[trapezeus]

odds makers don't see the bills pulling out games every week when they take the first 3 quarters off.

when money is on the line, prudence comes out a little more. i don't think the bills run away with this one.

[HAMMER]

I love it, Bills have covered 3 of 4 this year, I'm looking for 4-5 after this one. 100 on the Bills every game thus far.

[njsue]

That little ol 1 is just a home town sympathy number.


Bills have all the right tools in place to beat Arizona who IMO have not shown me squat.

Bills win by 13

[JerseyBoofaloBills]

What is the logic for the Cards to be favored this weekend? Just cause they are at home?


thats fine, i hate it when the bills are favored anyway..this is good, playing the underdog roll baby!!

[CUHATIN]

i agree, i like being the underdog!!!

[Mahdi]

What is the logic for the Cards to be favored this weekend? Just cause they are at home?
Its because Warner has a very high Qb rating at home. And most dont believe we will be able to score enough to keep up.

[njsue]

Its because Warner has a very high Qb rating at home. And most dont believe we will be able to score enough to keep up.

If that is the case, then the line # would be higher.

[superbills]

Keep us as dogs all year for all I care. Keeps the team focused on having something to prove week in/week out.

[madness]

What is the logic for the Cards to be favored this weekend? Just cause they are at home?

Pretty much.

Away team -3
Home team +3

[Griff]

The Bills are a better underdog team than a favored team so I say bring on the points from Vegas.

[FlyingDutchman]

This game is basically a pick em. The Cards are considered a good team who got off to a crappy start last week but proved they could put up points. The Bills are 4-0 but eeked out a win agains the Jags, slipped by the Raiders and had a slow start against the worst team in the league. Arizona -1 seems about right. I bet most people here arent completely confident the Bills will win Sunday. Should be a good game.

[Lexwhat]

What is the logic for the Cards to be favored this weekend? Just cause they are at home?

This was posted by Lifetimebillsfan. Here's your answer (especially look at what I bolded and underlined):



There are three reasons why Jacksonville is favored:

1.) Home field advantage is considered to be worth 3 points by the bookies. A home opener is probably worth an additional point.

...

3.) THIS IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER: the line that you see for a game is a BETTING LINE, not simply an assessment of the relative strengths of the two teams (although that is a major factor in setting the line).

An critical factor in where the line is set is the anticipated action on the game: what amount of points will create nearly equal action on both games. The reason that the bookie/bookies (since most bookies use the same line that is set in Vegas, it is actually one guy who sets the line) use a betting line in the first place is because they don't want to go broke by having so many more people bet on one team in a game rather than the other (if they allowed that to happen and all those people won and had to be paid, they could go broke). So, they try to set the line in such a way that a nearly equal amount of money will be bet on both teams. That way, they will have sufficient money to cover the winning bets regardless of who wins. They make their money on a percentage of the action, which is figured into the spread.

While both Buffalo and Jacksonville are relatively small markets, there is more money in northern Florida than WNY and the hype that the Jags got going into the season is likely to attract more betting money on them than would be placed on the Bills. Given the factors cited in # 1 and # 2 above, might still be favored in the game to begin with, but the amount by which they are favored also reflects the action that the bookie/bookies anticipate that they will get on the game and how many points they think it will take to even the action out between those betting on Jacksonville and those betting on the Bills.

The line opened with Jacksonville favored by six. That means that someone betting on Jacksonville giving up six points: the Jags must win by seven for him to win the bet or by six for him to get a "push" and get some of his money back. That means that the bookies anticipate that there will be a lot of money being placed on Jacksonville to win the game (and win big--six is a lot of points).

However, if a lot of money starts to be bet on the Bills, the line will change and come down. That doesn't mean that the bookie/bookies suddenly think that the Bills are getting better overnight, etc. What it means is that they are adjusting the line to reflect the action on the game--to even out the money being bet on each team--so that they won't lose their shirts if the team that has attracted a lot more money should win the game.

You have to be careful when you look at the betting lines in the newspaper or on the Internet. Yes, they do reflect what the bookie/bookies see as the relative strengths of the two teams that are playing one another. But, you must also keep in mind that the line also reflects the anticipated (and on-going) betting action and the amount of money that has been bet on the two teams.

So, don't take the line personally when you see a betting line that doesn't seem to reflect the relative strengths of the two teams that will be playing in the game. Understand that there are other factors that are being reflected in that line that may make it see "out of whack" if you are just considering how good the two teams are and how well they are likely to play in the game.

This was all explained to me some time ago by someone who was intimately acquainted with how the line is set and why it is set this way.


http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showthread.php?p=2596961#post2596961

[Mitchy moo]

This will probably be the last game we are the underdog.

[BlackMetalNinja]

This will probably be the last game we are the underdog.Care to make a wager on that?