Bills are only 1-2 point favorites at Miami

[Coach Sal]

I've seen three different early lines:
1
1.5
2
...mostly from offshore bookmaking sites.

This is a bit surprising to me. I figured the Bills would be anywhere from 3-5 point favorites.

[Mitchy moo]

I've seen three different early lines:
1
1.5
2
...mostly from offshore bookmaking sites.

This is a bit surprising to me. I figured the Bills would be anywhere from 3-5 point favorites.

Time to load the boat up on this fact. It will probably end up at 4 or so after heavy abuse.

[TacklingDummy]

Whens the last time Miami beat Buffalo? Miami is due. Trap game.

[Turbo.GUN.Hawk!]

Trap game!

[Mr. Miyagi]

Put me down for $500!

[Ingtar33]

how can this be a trap game. it's a division and rivalry game. if you can't get up for this you should just go home.

[Mitchy moo]

how can this be a trap game. it's a division and rivalry game. if you can't get up for this you should just go home.

It's not a trap game, we know what's at stake and so do the players. That is one of the main reasons why I think we will do well. There is no room for a let down and this game, like all divisional games, will haunt you until the season is over.

[yordad]

I thought we would be about -6.5.

[Antoni]

This is clearly a funny line. If you're the books you release a BUF -1 line only if you want everyone on one side of the bet. Good news for Dolphin fans

[Antoni]

I thought we would be about -6.5.
-6.5 would be as close to the "true line" as you'd get. However, that line would distribute the betting a bit. They want everyone backing Buffalo because they think there's a good chance Miami will win. Similar line came out for our game against New England and like 95% of the public took NE that game.

Edit: and it's a bit too early to worry. It's not so much the line that raises eyebrows but rather the line movement. If this stays at -1 or even goes to a PK then you know Vegas is trying to clean house

[Ebenezer]

Trap game!
The Jets game is the trap game. Sandwiched between two games against big rivals and both of those games are on the road.

[yordad]

-6.5 would be as close to the "true line" as you'd get. However, that line would distribute the betting a bit. They want everyone backing Buffalo because they think there's a good chance Miami will win. Similar line came out for our game against New England and like 95% of the public took NE that game.

Edit: and it's a bit too early to worry. It's not so much the line that raises eyebrows but rather the line movement. If this stays at -1 or even goes to a PK then you know Vegas is trying to clean houseSo... do you think all the bookies know something all the fans don't?

Because if the whole population is convinced the Bills will win, why would the bookies be convinced enough to bet their practice on the opposite?

[yordad]

Maybe they are considering Toronto a neutral sight(?). Maybe at the Ralph they would be 4.5 point favorites (which still sounds low, IMO). If not, it is like they are saying the Fins would be 5 point favorites in Miami(?). No way.

[BlackMetalNinja]

My usual source has us -1.5

[BlackMetalNinja]

Maybe they are considering Toronto a neutral sight(?). Maybe at the Ralph they would be 4.5 point favorites (which still sounds low, IMO). If not, it is like they are saying the Fins would be 5 point favorites in Miami(?). No way.This game is in Miami...

[yordad]

This game is in Miami...:wowser:

Yeah, that makes more sense. doh

[Antoni]

So... do you think all the bookies know something all the fans don't?

Because if the whole population is convinced the Bills will win, why would the bookies be convinced enough to bet their practice on the opposite?

Yes, that's exactly what I'm saying. Almost every week you can point at a game where the public was completely on the wrong side of a game. I'm talking like 95% of the money coming on the favorite. This week it was the Rams-Cowboys game. Last week it was the Giants-Browns game, and Patriots-Dolphins is another example like I said before.

I'm not saying fade the public every week because that doesn't work, what am I saying is that when you see a funny line and the line movement does not reflect the action, then Vegas clearly knows something that the fans don't.

[mchurchfie]

As long as we don't implode we should win but I think that Miami will be a much tougher game than some people anticipate.

[MikeInRoch]

Maybe you are misreading it. It's not 1 to 2. It's 12.

[HAMMER]

Vegas doesn't try to push money to one side or the other, they move the line to try and have money evenly distributed on both sides. They make their money on the vig.

[Antoni]

Vegas doesn't try to push money to one side or the other, they move the line to try and have money evenly distributed on both sides. They make their money on the vig.

That's a bunch of nonsense. Talk with the actual bookmakers and see if they'll actually tell you that line with a straight face

[Griff]

Whens the last time Miami beat Buffalo? Miami is due. Trap game.

I love that every game we play is a trap game now. Please stop using that word you sound ridiculous.

[HAMMER]

That's a bunch of nonsense. Talk with the actual bookmakers and see if they'll actually tell you that line with a straight face

You don't know what you are talking about, sorry.

[Brown42000]

Miami is a tough team to figure out I think they play up and down to their competition. If thats the case I think it could be a good game but see Buffalo winning a close one. If Jason Ferguson is out the Phins starting NT then Buffalo will win with ease as he is the main reason why Miami has been so good against the run.

[Antoni]

You don't know what you are talking about, sorry.

Great argument? That's why you just recited the same trash line everyone who doesn't have a clue recites. What's next? Home teams are automatically get spotted 3 points?


Vegas doesn't try to push money to one side or the other, they move the line to try and have money evenly distributed on both sides. They make their money on the vig.

So when the Jets opened at -3.5 at most places and despite HEAVY public action on New York the line moved to Jets -3, you'd call that them trying to even things out to take the vig? No that would be them pushing more money on New York even tho 90% of the money is on New York anyway.

[Antoni]

As expected the money is pouring in on Buffalo. Only a few places have the -1 still and most moved it at least a half a point in Buffalo's favor.

[!Papacrunk!]

It will be interesting. Miami doesn't have enough talent to be able to come back from a deficit, but if they can get a lead, they've been pretty good at keeping it. I really don't expect to see a whole lot of the wildcat stuff, but I think the team should be really fired up since they seem to really have some fire when they're up against some big teams (Pats, Chargers) I really hope Ferguson will be playing, because he's been a real big part in our 3-4

[Hyperion]

Vegas doesn't try to push money to one side or the other, they move the line to try and have money evenly distributed on both sides. They make their money on the vig.

Most of the time this is true. However there is always a game or two that Vegas gets the vast majority of the betting public on one side that doesn't have a prayer of covering.

[El Guapo]

-6.5 would be as close to the "true line" as you'd get. However, that line would distribute the betting a bit. They want everyone backing Buffalo because they think there's a good chance Miami will win. Similar line came out for our game against New England and like 95% of the public took NE that game.

Edit: and it's a bit too early to worry. It's not so much the line that raises eyebrows but rather the line movement. If this stays at -1 or even goes to a PK then you know Vegas is trying to clean house

Wrong. The goal of the bookie/casino is to have 50/50 betting (half on each team). They want to make their money on the vig, not on one team covering/not covering. This is business, not gambling. What we do when we place a bet is gambling.

The line was set with looking into not only what the expected outcome would be, but also historical betting patterns on both teams and the "buzz" about each team. Throw in the rivalry, and the spread goes down even further.

If you feel the line is so wrong (which I do), bet early. If money starts being dumped on the Bills, the line will move against the Bills. Hence, the casinos/bookies trying to get even money on both teams.

[El Guapo]

Vegas doesn't try to push money to one side or the other, they move the line to try and have money evenly distributed on both sides. They make their money on the vig.

Read this after my reply.

[El Guapo]

My book has it -2. Opened at -1

[Hyperion]

Wrong. The goal of the bookie/casino is to have 50/50 betting (half on each team). They want to make their money on the vig, not on one team covering/not covering. This is business, not gambling. What we do when we place a bet is gambling.

The line was set with looking into not only what the expected outcome would be, but also historical betting patterns on both teams and the "buzz" about each team. Throw in the rivalry, and the spread goes down even further.

If you feel the line is so wrong (which I do), bet early. If money starts being dumped on the Bills, the line will move against the Bills. Hence, the casinos/bookies trying to get even money on both teams.

Again the 50-50 is partially true but something of a myth. Vegas is smart and if they see an opportunity to take money from people they do it. As you said it's a business, do you really believe the books would pass up an opportunity to make bank for the sake of making the 50-50?

The Bills-Cardinals game several weeks ago was a great example of this. The public was all over the Bills at +1. It was an atrocious spot for Buffalo and a great one for Arizona. I guarentee you the people who set the line felt the Cardinals would win comfortably but knew they could profit by making the line what it was. If they made the line Bills-3/ Cardinals +3, then people would have been all over the Cardinals which would have been bad for the books.

Take it from someone who has bet these games for years and done fairly well at it. There are always a couple games where the line is deliberately wrong in order to crush the betting public. Not all of them just some. If you pay attention you will see this.

[El Guapo]

Again the 50-50 is partially true but something of a myth. Vegas is smart and if they see an opportunity to take money from people they do it.

The Bills-Cardinals game several weeks ago was a great example of this. The public was all over the Bills at +1. It was an atrocious spot for Buffalo and a great one for Arizona. I guarentee you the people who set the line felt the Cardinals would win comfortably but knew they could profit by making the line what it was. If they made the line Bills-3/ Cardinals +3, then people would have been all over the Cardinals which would have been bad for the books.

Take it from someone who has bet these games for years and done fairly well at it. There are always a couple games where the line is deliberately wrong in order to crush the betting public. Not all of them just some. If you pay attention you will see this.

I agree that there are lines that are off. Sometimes way off. Take the Dallas game last week. I was all over that one. But, I have been burned as well. Vegas is not going to lay millions on the line by weighting a game when anything can happen (turnovers, etc...). Business is business, and they want to make the money on the vig. No one will convince me otherwise. The line is already moving this week because of the money going to the Bills.

Look at my post, the books take into account historical betting patterns. Dallas games, Alabama, Ohio State, USC games always have the "I'll bet on my team no matter what" bettors built into the line. 50/50 is what they want. Remember, for all the bettors like that, there are pro gamlers betting the games, and if the line is that far off, they will balance the action off.

[LtFinFan66]

What's the big deal? Does it really matter when 2 teams hit the field on Sunday? NO!!

[Antoni]

Again the 50-50 is partially true but something of a myth. Vegas is smart and if they see an opportunity to take money from people they do it. As you said it's a business, do you really believe the books would pass up an opportunity to make bank for the sake of making the 50-50?

The Bills-Cardinals game several weeks ago was a great example of this. The public was all over the Bills at +1. It was an atrocious spot for Buffalo and a great one for Arizona. I guarentee you the people who set the line felt the Cardinals would win comfortably but knew they could profit by making the line what it was. If they made the line Bills-3/ Cardinals +3, then people would have been all over the Cardinals which would have been bad for the books.

Take it from someone who has bet these games for years and done fairly well at it. There are always a couple games where the line is deliberately wrong in order to crush the betting public. Not all of them just some. If you pay attention you will see this.
Just give up. For a lack of better judgment I tried to make that point but got countered with "LOLOL BUT VEGAS WANTS 50/50 ACTION HAR". And I've also been capping sports for almost 10 years now capping at 61% in the NFL (63% last season and 64% this year for a net of 21.9k) I clearly don't have the slighest clue :whistling

[El Guapo]

Every bettor is winner. Nobody ever leaves a casino in the hole. The casinos should close shop because everybody has them figured out......

[Antoni]

I agree that there are lines that are off. Sometimes way off. Take the Dallas game last week. I was all over that one. But, I have been burned as well. Vegas is not going to lay millions on the line by weighting a game when anything can happen (turnovers, etc...). Business is business, and they want to make the money on the vig. No one will convince me otherwise. The line is already moving this week because of the money going to the Bills.

Look at my post, the books take into account historical betting patterns. Dallas games, Alabama, Ohio State, USC games always have the "I'll bet on my team no matter what" bettors built into the line. 50/50 is what they want. Remember, for all the bettors like that, there are pro gamlers betting the games, and if the line is that far off, they will balance the action off.

You just contradicted your own points. 50/50 is clearly what they don't want and most often don't get. The books know the "true line" and that's almost always not the one they posted because like you said, some teams are overrated and others underrated. You don't have to be a genius to figure out which one is what

[Antoni]

Every bettor is winner. Nobody ever leaves a casino in the hole. The casinos should close shop because everybody has them figured out......

Right because playing inherent -EV games such as Slots, Craps, and Roulette is exactly like capping sports. Clearly.

[El Guapo]

You just contradicted your own points. 50/50 is clearly what they don't want and most often don't get. The books know the "true line" and that's almost always not the one they posted because like you said, some teams are overrated and others underrated. You don't have to be a genius to figure out which one is what

No, my point is well made. The books know, historically, which teams will be bet on no matter what the line is. Pro bettors will balance that out. I always watch the overrated team for a skew based on their fans. Underrated works better in college b-ball.

[El Guapo]

Right because playing inherent -EV games such as Slots, Craps, and Roulette is exactly like capping sports. Clearly.

If there wasn't CONSISTENT money in sports books, the casinos wouldn't offer it. Period.

[Antoni]

If there wasn't CONSISTENT money in sports books, the casinos wouldn't offer it. Period.

Did I say they didn't? And everyone obviously doesn't have them figured out judging by the posts in this thread

The average bettor is a sucker who thinks he knows what he's doing, reads all the magazines, and believes in all the "common wisdom" which is more or less total bull****. That's why they're successful. Doesn't mean the <1% of sharps can't make a killing off of them.

[Antoni]

No, my point is well made. The books know, historically, which teams will be bet on no matter what the line is. Pro bettors will balance that out. I always watch the overrated team for a skew based on their fans. Underrated works better in college b-ball.

How is it well made. Do you even bother to look where the money is coming in? Take a look sometime and see how often it ever comes in 50/50. Hardly ever. Quite the goal to have when you hardly ever achieve your goal. I.E The goal is RARELY to force 50/50 betting

[El Guapo]

Did I say they didn't? And everyone obviously doesn't have them figured out judging by the posts in this thread

The average bettor is a sucker who thinks he knows what he's doing, reads all the magazines, and believes in all the "common wisdom" which is more or less total bull****. That's why they're successful. Doesn't mean the <1% of sharps can't make a killing off of them.

Look, all I am saying is that a casino is not going to submit itself to a high risk profile to "take advantage" of the average bettors. There are too many pros that would "take advantage" of the casinos in such a case. It just does not make sense from a business standpoint to put yourself in high risk profile for a gmae that has too many human intangibles in it.

[eyedog]

The line is right and is based on:

-road game for the Bills - didn't they just get hammered in their last road game ?
-miami just lost at home- doubtful they will come out again next week without their "A" game at home again, and a divisional game.

The line is right. It may move a little but I doubt it. It surely isn't going over three or they will get hammered with Miami action.

[yordad]

The books know the "true line" and that's almost always not the one they posted because like you said, some teams are overrated and others underrated.Wait..... which is it? They know something? What? They know if one team is underrated, or the other is overrated? Well no **** sherlock.

You act as if "Vegas" knows Edwards will break a leg in practice tomorrow.

So, because you feel the line is suspiciously low you bet on the Fins? Somehow I think your betting on the Bills as I type.

[Antoni]

If there wasn't CONSISTENT money in sports books, the casinos wouldn't offer it. Period.

You obviously have no idea what you are talking about. Posting nothing is better than posting garbage, amiright? How much are you down on the year btw lol