My Research is Showing Me Bills looking GREAT for postseason

[patmoran2006]

So I’ve been doing some record and schedule research, and I really have concluded the Bills are in really, REALLY good shape to make the playoffs this year. Now note this: I do NOT think that we cannot beat <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:place w:st="on">New England</st1:place> and overtake them for the division. Not only is it is possible, I think that we will overtake them. <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
But I’m basing the following on us NOT doing that. Even if <st1:place w:st="on">New England</st1:place> ends up winning our division, I think we’re still in real good shape to make the playoffs.<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
First, going heads up with Buffalo; I’m already prepared to scratch SD and Jacksonville off the list as two teams that would get in (wild card) ahead of us. SD is FOUR games behind us in the standings (including heads up tiebreaker) while <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Jacksonville</st1:place></st1:City> is three games.<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
I’m also prepared to scratch Houston and <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Miami</st1:place></st1:City> off the list. Both are 3-4, and sorry (especially Fins fans) but I don’t see either team getting any higher than nine wins in 2008, at the most (and that’s no disrespect to <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Miami</st1:City></st1:place> either).<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
I’m VERY close to scratching Indy off the wild-card list as well. They’re 3-4, two games behind us and have MURDER for a second-half schedule, including contests at <st1:City w:st="on">Pittsburgh</st1:City>, <st1:City w:st="on">San Diego</st1:City>, <st1:City w:st="on">Jacksonville</st1:City> as well as home games vs. New England and <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Tennessee</st1:place></st1:State>.<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
<st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Cleveland</st1:place></st1:City> is 3-4, two games behind us although they have a chance to get much closer by beating us at home on a Monday night. But looking at their schedule, I see many more losses. They’re still on the road against <st1:State w:st="on">Tennessee</st1:State>, Philly and <st1:City w:st="on">Pittsburgh</st1:City>, and home games vs <st1:City w:st="on">Denver</st1:City>, <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Baltimore</st1:place></st1:City> and Indy. I’d be shocked to see them finish over .500, with or without upsetting us.<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
To me, that’s going to leave three teams to fight for four playoff spots (One AFCE divisional winner included). One or even two AFCE teams could end up as wild cards.<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
I include <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Baltimore</st1:place></st1:City> as a legit wild card contender right now at 4-3. But looking at their schedule, they still have FOUR games against the tough NFC East (at <st1:City w:st="on">Dallas</st1:City> and Giants, home vs philly and <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Washington</st1:place></st1:State>). They also still have tough games vs Pitt and <st1:City w:st="on">Jacksonville</st1:City> at home, as well as <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Cleveland</st1:place></st1:City> on the road. I see them at 8-9 wins this year.<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
That’s why.. I really consider the Bills two games against the Jets, at least slightly MORE important than the games against <st1:place w:st="on">New England</st1:place>.<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
Looking at the Jets schedule, the only tough games on paper right now (besides the pair vs us) look like road games at NE and Tennesee and a home game against <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Denver</st1:place></st1:City>. <o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
New England still has a road game at Indy (this Monday) and home games against the Steelers and <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Arizona</st1:place></st1:State>.<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
I’m starting to think the 2<SUP>nd</SUP> place finisher in the AFCE is a lock for a wild card, and I think given the softer overall schedules that the AFCE may even produce both wild card spots.<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
Of course, a lot can still happen and no game should ever be considered a lock. But for my money, I’m rating the two games against the Jets as being slightly more important to our playoff push than the NE games.<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
If the Patriots win the division and we handle the Jets, we’re in for sure. But if we finish 3<SUP>rd</SUP>, it’s a risky proposition at best.<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
And yes, NE could still easily finish 3<SUP>rd</SUP>, even 4<SUP>th</SUP> in the division. They are FAR from a lock.. But they are 5-2 at the moment and tied with <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Buffalo</st1:City></st1:place>, and for now anyway, needs to be given that consideration.<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
Point being: We’ve buried a few teams in the conference standings already, and a few other teams under us have murderous schedules remaining (Indy, Cleveland, Baltimore).<o:p></o:p>

[patmoran2006]

Naturally, the Bills could go into the tank, get creamed in their division and miss out completely. I just dont see that happening.

10 Wins in this conference THIS year is a lock to get in the postseason. Even 9 may get it done looking at the teams behind us and their schedules.

[tat2dmike77]

are you stoned? Playoffs no where in site for this team

[patmoran2006]

I'm more pointing out other teams situations and likely records than our own right now.

I dont see any of the following teams (Baltimore, Indy, SD, Cleveland, Jacksonville) getting to double digit wins this year with their current record and/or remaining schedule.

[TacklingDummy]

Next 2 games are the key.

The NFL wants to see the Jets and Favre in the playoffs. The refs. will be paid off this Sunday.

[patmoran2006]

Next 2 games are the key.

The NFL wants to see the Jets and Favre in the playoffs. The refs. will be paid off this Sunday.
if you go by last week's Patriots game, you can say the same for them as well.


Last Sunday vs Rams.

Rams: 9 penalties, 63 yards.

patriots: 0 Penalties, 0 yards.


BTW, I TOTALLY agree with you.. Our four games against Jets and Pats are the key. Win 2 at least, hopefully 3 of four.. Finish at least 2nd in this division and I think (this year anyway) your a lock for the playoffs.

[TheBrownBear]

This week is huge. Technically, it's not a must win. But psychologically, it sure feels like one.

[Buffalogic]

Nah Bull****. There's no way we are going to let the Brady-less pats win the division. No ****ing way!!

We better win the division this year or I'll be absolutely shocked!

[patmoran2006]

I don’t think NE is going to win the division. I’m just being unbiased enough to acknowledge that at 5-2, they are tied for the lead and have a chance.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
They play at Indy Sunday night, a game we obviously all want to see them lose. They still have non-gimmes at home against <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:State w:st="on">Arizona</st1:State> and a tough <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Pittsburgh</st1:place></st1:City> team (that will be looking for revenge after having the score run up on them last year). But what it comes down to for NE, jets and <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Buffalo</st1:place></st1:City> is how they all do head-to-head.<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
I could easily see the Pats finishing at 9-7.<o:p></o:p>

[tat2dmike77]

Nah Bull****. There's no way we are going to let the Brady-less pats win the division. No ****ing way!!

We better win the division this year or I'll be absolutely shocked!

HOMER

[B-DON]

HOMER

PESSIMIST

[psubills62]

Agreed, games against the Jets and Pats are important. Honestly, if the Pats lose to Indianapolis, and then we beat them at home, that would go a long way towards ruining any momentum they've gained recently. The Pats would then play the Jets and Dolphins, where I think the Pats could win 1. So they'd end up near 0.500 at that point, with 5 games left. It wouldn't look that great for them.

And I agree - it's looking more and more like the AFC East could provide both wild cards, especially if the Colts and Chargers don't end up making a run.

[BillsOwnAll]

In one of my threads..i said 10 wins is a lock to make the WC at least, because of the weaker AFC this year. People laughed at me for saying the AFC is weak. Bills are 5-2...alot of teams are like 3-4 right now that were suppose to be good. People are to worried about pointing out every little thing the bills do wrong and forget to look EVERY TEAM does little things wrong every week. The bills could be in control of there own destiny come week 15 16 17. When was the last time that happen?

[Saratoga Slim]

This week is huge. Technically, it's not a must win. But psychologically, it sure feels like one.

I agree. If we lose this week, it's going to be easier to focus on the fact that we've lost 3 of our last 4 than the fact that we've still got a very competitive record at 5-3.

This week, at home vs. a division opponent, is critical toward keeping team confidence up. If we win this one, we can comfortably go .500 the rest of the season and still make the playoffs. That said, I think that if we do win this one, we're going to do better than that.

[yordad]

When was the last time that happen? Pretty much last year. At the very latest, the year they got waxed by the Pitt backups and Willie Parker.

[PECKERWOOD]

I haven't made up my mind on whether or not we are a contender or a pretender this year, but I'm leaning more towards pretender. I understand our record is good, we got off to a great start but if we can't go in and beat Miami, how the hell are we going to beat the Jets or New England? Buffalo had better make a statement this week against NY because losing back-to-back games against divisional rivals is no way to guarantee a spot in the playoffs. We are at home this week, we BETTER not come up flat.

[Saratoga Slim]

I haven't made up my mind on whether or not we are a contender or a pretender this year, but I'm leaning more towards pretender. I understand our record is good, we got off to a great start but if we can't go in and beat Miami, how the hell are we going to beat the Jets or New England? Buffalo had better make a statement this week against NY because losing back-to-back games against divisional rivals is no way to guarantee a spot in the playoffs. We are at home this week, we BETTER not come up flat.

You can't really castigate the team too much for losing a tight game, with some key injuries, on the road at a division rival that was clearly fired up for the game. I don't think that game was enough to put us in the pretender column.

I guess it depends on what your definition of "pretender" is. If you're arguing that we're a "pretender" to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, I'd be inclined to agree. But I think it's hard to argue that we're not at minimum a "contender" to make the playoffs.

[PECKERWOOD]

You can't really castigate the team too much for losing a tight game, with some key injuries, on the road at a division rival that was clearly fired up for the game. I don't think that game was enough to put us in the pretender column.

I guess it depends on what your definition of "pretender" is. If you're arguing that we're a "pretender" to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, I'd be inclined to agree. But I think it's hard to argue that we're not at minimum a "contender" to make the playoffs.

I think we're a pretender in the sense that we could finish 3rd in the AFC East. It really depends on how we play against the Jets.

[Saratoga Slim]

I think we're a pretender in the sense that we could finish 3rd in the AFC East. It really depends on how we play against the Jets.

If we finish 3rd in the AFC East with a 9-7 or 10-6 record, we could still make the playoffs.

But I do agree that the team will, despite its record, have a "pretender" feel if we lose to the J-E-T-S, simply b/c if that happens we'll be 1-3 in our last four games

[Typ0]

I agree we will make the playoffs. With our schedule it will be very difficult NOT to make the playoffs.

I kind of overlooked TDRJs theory about the Zebra's, the NFL and Favre though. If they beat us twice it could hurt us quite a bit...but I still think we will be having a home playoff game this season and will stick to it until we get stoned by the refs.

[TigerJ]

I agree that this game versus the Jets is huge.. The Bills can overcom a loss to the Dolphins in Miami. A loss to the Jets at home is much tougher to get past even if the mathmatics of aren't that bad yet.

[Mad Bomber]

Nice analysis, Pat.

I think that the Bills WILL make the postseason, but they'll make an early exit.

That, frankly, is what I have expected of this team....to take the next step and make the playoffs.

I have, and still do, look at this as a team that is rebuilding and working toward elite status.

The first step is learning to win games that you have in the past lost. The Bills have done that this year, actually coming back for fourth quarter victories.

The next step is playing consistently and being able to pull away from teams when you are ahead. Not only that, but being able to play well on the road (still a weakness for the Bills).

Before this season started, my hope was that the Bills would improve and possibly make the playoffs...I was, and still am, looking for next year to be the year when the Bills make a SERIOUS run.

[Jersey1031]

Next 2 games are the key.

The NFL wants to see the Jets and Favre in the playoffs. The refs. will be paid off this Sunday.


So true.

[HughC]

One thing regarding the schedule that favors the Bills is the uncommon opponents between the Bills and Patriots. The Bills' second place schedule results in playing the Jaguars and Browns, rather than the Pats' first place schedule having them play the Colts and Steelers. I can see the Bills going 2-0 in those two games while the Pats go 0-2. The rest of the schedule is identical for the two teams, so New England would have to make up at least two, if not three games elsewhere on the schedule.

[bruinsbm70]

ha

beat by green-ellis and cassel

bwah ha

[Typ0]

One thing regarding the schedule that favors the Bills is the uncommon opponents between the Bills and Patriots. The Bills' second place schedule results in playing the Jaguars and Browns, rather than the Pats' first place schedule having them play the Colts and Steelers. I can see the Bills going 2-0 in those two games while the Pats go 0-2. The rest of the schedule is identical for the two teams, so New England would have to make up at least two, if not three games elsewhere on the schedule.


I think the common opponents tiebreaker is won by us because we beat SD and SD beat NE. But it needs to come to that first which it won't. We have both lost to Miami but NE has beaten the Jests and we lost to them. there would need to be a complete reversal in the division second half for it to come down to common opponents with NE. It's a mute point NE beat us on sunday and that was it.

[billogic99]

Wow, this is a thread that shouldn't have been bumped.